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Researchers predict economic downturn if fossil fuel investment goes unchecked

By Feux Follets following x   2018 Jun 6, 10:04am 543 views   59 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    


An economic downturn on the level of the 2008 recession is coming if we keep investing in fossil fuels, researchers say.

If fossil fuel-producing countries like the US, Canada, and Russia don't guide their economies away from oil, gas, and coal, then low-carbon technology could render at least some of those investments worthless.

According to a paper in Nature Climate Change, approximately $1 trillion to $4 trillion could be lost from the global economy, even taking into account the fact that the Trump administration has hit the brakes on a lot of climate change policy in the US.

Assets, like drill rigs and pipelines, generally have long lifetimes, so as the world moves to low-carbon and zero-carbon technologies, we can expect that some fossil fuel assets will become valueless before the end of their projected lifetimes. Investors call these valueless assets "stranded."

The researchers used a computer model of the global economy and applied two scenarios: one in which low-carbon technology continues to diffuse at the rate it has been, and a more extreme scenario in which countries really do adhere to their 2°C commitments. They compared this to International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts of fuel use out to 2040, which generally show continued growth in demand for fossil fuels and reflect how investors formulate ideas about demand.

At current rates of adoption, cleaner technology will strand billions of dollars of assets before they'd normally be retired. And if countries implement additional climate policies, the losses would be amplified.

One scenario that would exacerbate this situation would be a "sell-off," the researchers said. If oil producers realize that demand is starting to drop off, that could induce low-cost producers to pump as much oil as they can and sell it cheaply. That way, they can maximize the use of their assets, deplete any oil reserves, and snatch up any final profits to be made from the oil market before their competitors can. That could drive fossil fuel prices down even further, which would be a death knell for higher-cost producers, particularly oil producers in Canada and the United States.

In the absence of any US policy to temper the optimism of fossil fuel companies, some investors have demanded an accounting of how their investments are exposed to climate change policies and new low-carbon technologies. Exxon is the most notable: in May 2017, more than 60 percent of Exxon's investors voted in favor of a resolution that would require the company to compile an annual report on how global climate change policies could affect business. Though the resolution was non-binding, it showed that more and more investors are becoming concerned about the problem of stranded assets.

More: In the absence of any US policy to temper the optimism of fossil fuel companies, some investors have demanded an accounting of how their investments are exposed to climate change policies and new low-carbon technologies.

Exxon is the most notable: in May 2017, more than 60 percent of Exxon's investors voted in favor of a resolution that would require the company to compile an annual report on how global climate change policies could affect business.

Though the resolution was non-binding, it showed that more and more investors are becoming concerned about the problem of stranded assets.

More: https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/06/researchers-predict-economic-downturn-if-fossil-fuel-investment-goes-unchecked/

#Economics #FossilFuels #Renewables #StrandedAssets #Investing

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20   bob2356   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 14, 5:30am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

ThreeBays says
If it sustained current rates of growth, it would more than cover all energy needs in 50 years.


It won't cover diesel/bunker oil/jet fuel transportion needs, but it will knock the shit out of petrolium prices. Only 10% of petrolium distillation is diesel/bunker oil and 5% jet fuel.

Which would lead to a resurgence in petrolium use. Utilites and other large energy users will switch to the cheapest energy source available as long as the conversion cost is profitable. That has been going on since oil was first used.
21   Tenpoundbass   ignore (11)   2018 Jun 14, 6:18am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

I some folks here do not understand the precision that goes into to making turbines and just how little it takes to create unequal weight distribution can make the thing wobble like hell to no good result. There's a few videos on the web if you cared to look.
22   Tenpoundbass   ignore (11)   2018 Jun 14, 6:47am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

https://twitter.com/ljrwindwarrior/status/690022766746165248

https://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2017/01/collapse-of-wind-turbine-under-investigation.html

https://www.estrepublicain.fr/edition-de-bar-le-duc/2017/01/14/menil-la-horgne-(55)-une-anomalie-dans-l-acier-a-l-origine-de-l-accident-d-eolienne
23   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 14, 7:55am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Tenpoundbass says
I some folks here do not understand the precision that goes into to making turbines and just how little it takes to create unequal weight distribution can make the thing wobble like hell to no good result. There's a few videos on the web if you cared to look.


Which is why everyone uses systems like these:

https://www.windpowerengineering.com/operations-maintenance/condition-monitoring-maintenance/intelligent-vibration-monitoring-for-wind-plants-2/
24   HEYYOU   ignore (13)   2018 Jun 14, 9:51am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

What will be the cost to retool all our transportation sources?
25   HEYYOU   ignore (13)   2018 Jun 14, 9:59am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Fuck you! HEYYOU!
You can't see into the future like the rest of mankind.

Fuck you back HEYYOU!
One thing I know is that shit can happen.

Best conversation I've had since I've been on patrick.net.
26   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 14, 10:33am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Tenpoundbass says
I some folks here do not understand the precision that goes into to making turbines and just how little it takes to create unequal weight distribution can make the thing wobble like hell to no good result. There's a few videos on the web if you cared to look.


Captain, wind gusts will create the most unequal weight distribution, won't it? That's what makes the blades spin in the first place.
27   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 14, 10:35am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Bad News For Captain:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/the-fifth-largest-offshore-wind-farm-on-the-planet-officially-opens.html
The fifth-largest offshore wind farm on the planet officially opens
28   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 14, 10:42am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

More Bad News For Captain:

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/13/sdge-approves-projects-doubling-grid-scale-energy-storage-to-enable-adoption-of-more-renewables/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+IM-cleantechnica+%28CleanTechnica%29
San Diego Gas & Electric broke the news that it will be doubling the energy storage capacity of its network over the next 3.5 years to enable the adoption of more renewables in its service area.
----------
Note......San Diego Gas and Electric does not use coal anymore. It's very sad. Please call up your Congressman and demand you have the right to breathe fresh smog.
29   Tenpoundbass   ignore (11)   2018 Jun 14, 10:47am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Strategist says
Captain, wind gusts will create the most unequal weight distribution, won't it? That's what makes the blades spin in the first place.

They turn into the wind the wobble comes after the props pick up speed. The faster it goes the wilder the oscillation.
Think of a ceiling fan how they wobble and clank when the edges of the blades get packed with dust. If each blade weighed a ton like on those turbines. You've got three tons of wobbly steel the faster they spin the wilder the base swings on an ellipse. As the base swings wildly one of blades catch on the base and it collapses.
30   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 14, 11:04am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Tenpoundbass says
Strategist says
Captain, wind gusts will create the most unequal weight distribution, won't it? That's what makes the blades spin in the first place.

They turn into the wind the wobble comes after the props pick up speed. The faster it goes the wilder the oscillation.
Think of a ceiling fan how they wobble and clank when the edges of the blades get packed with dust. If each blade weighed a ton like on those turbines. You've got three tons of wobbly steel the faster they spin the wilder the base swings on an ellipse. As the base swings wildly one of blades catch on the base and it collapses.


OK, you have a point. But it's still dust. How heavy can dust be?
By the way, won't the wind just blow away the dust on the blades? I just blew half the dust off my laptop with just my breath. Winds that can spin three tons of steel will easily blow away the dust .
31   Tenpoundbass   ignore (11)   2018 Jun 14, 11:08am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Strategist says
By the way, won't the wind just blow away the dust on the blades?


Not if they sat for a dry spell and you get birds sitting on them shitting all over them. Dust, aerosols, jet exhaust that black soot that gets all over everything under heavy commercial traffic. It's probably not the most common way for them to fail as ideally they should be in a location where they are always turning. But even then they can pick residues from rain, humidity and precipitation.

It doesn't take much to put precision rotation out of balance.
I remember when my Dad used to get his tires rotated and balanced every few months. He hardly ever had to buy new tires. Now people just drive the tires until they need new ones. But they would last three times longer if you serviced your tires.
32   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 14, 11:10am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Tenpoundbass says
Not if they sat for a dry spell and you get birds sitting on them shitting all over them. Dust, aerosols, jet exhaust that black soot that gets all over everything under heavy commercial traffic. It's probably not the most common way for them to fail as ideally they should be in a location where they are always turning. But even then they can pick residues from rain, humidity and precipitation.


Again, this is well understood and accounted for. Vibration analysis is standard operating procedure.
33   Tenpoundbass   ignore (11)   2018 Jun 14, 11:11am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

LeonDurham says
Vibration analysis is standard operating procedure.

Stress is Stress. The breakdown comes after years of use, not the first time a wind comes.
34   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 14, 11:19am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

LeonDurham says
Tenpoundbass says
Not if they sat for a dry spell and you get birds sitting on them shitting all over them. Dust, aerosols, jet exhaust that black soot that gets all over everything under heavy commercial traffic. It's probably not the most common way for them to fail as ideally they should be in a location where they are always turning. But even then they can pick residues from rain, humidity and precipitation.


Again, this is well understood and accounted for. Vibration analysis is standard operating procedure.


Bottom line.....wind power is still the cheapest way of producing electricity.
Captain, what you are saying is.....It's not worth driving an extra 2 miles to save $3,000 on a new car, because it costs 30 cents more in fuel costs.
35   Hassan_Rouhani   ignore (2)   2018 Jun 14, 11:21am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Tenpoundbass says
LeonDurham says
Vibration analysis is standard operating procedure.

Stress is Stress. The breakdown comes after years of use, not the first time a wind comes.


Engineering challenges wrt wind turbines are trivial subset of engineeering challegenges being successfully solved by the aicraft industry.
36   bob2356   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 14, 11:34am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Tenpoundbass says
https://twitter.com/ljrwindwarrior/status/690022766746165248

https://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2017/01/collapse-of-wind-turbine-under-investigation.html

https://www.estrepublicain.fr/edition-de-bar-le-duc/2017/01/14/menil-la-horgne-(55)-une-anomalie-dans-l-acier-a-l-origine-de-l-accident-d-eolienne


Do you read the links you post or just find a headline that sort of sounds like what you want? One link is dead, one is about zoning, and one is about a blade failure with no mention of cause. WTF?
37   Tenpoundbass   ignore (11)   2018 Jun 14, 11:35am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Props for planes are light compared to Blades for Turbines. The Turbine isn't producing lift. Two totally different animals.
38   Tenpoundbass   ignore (11)   2018 Jun 14, 11:40am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Precision balance requires recalibration and keeping the equipment clean and clear of foreign debris and within tolerance.
Who's gonna come back here and say I was right when it is finally reported why these towers keep falling?
I imagine bird strikes also can put it out of whack. For a board that fancy themselves as Scientist. For you all to dismiss basic engineering flaws, which have historically brought down many structures. I find most laughable.
39   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 14, 11:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Tenpoundbass says

Stress is Stress. The breakdown comes after years of use, not the first time a wind comes.


And vibration is always being analyzed.
40   Hassan_Rouhani   ignore (2)   2018 Jun 14, 11:52am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Tenpoundbass says
Props for planes are light compared to Blades for Turbines. The Turbine isn't producing lift. Two totally different animals.


Wings are wings. Props, turbines, actual wings - they are all wings. This shit is trivial from aircraft industry POV.
41   WookieMan   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 14, 11:53am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Tenpoundbass says
Props for planes are light compared to Blades for Turbines. The Turbine isn't producing lift. Two totally different animals.


Not totally different animals, planes have constant maintenance requirements to keep them working. Wind power has been around for a while, but it's still not as evolved as plane/jet maintenance. It will evolve, get better maintenance procedures, and as energy storage capacities increase, there's really nothing stopping wind and solar from being the dominant energy supply. And that's a good thing.

Just imagine if a prop or jet engine got "out of balance" and we all just threw our hands in the air and said fuck it, this won't work. No, we developed better tech to make the plane fly better, further, faster and more fuel efficient. And maintained it I guess is my main point.
42   bob2356   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 14, 12:04pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Tenpoundbass says
Precision balance requires recalibration and keeping the equipment clean and clear of foreign debris and within tolerance.
Who's gonna come back here and say I was right when it is finally reported why these towers keep falling?


People like insurance companies and engineers say it's almost always bearing/hub failure. Can't find a singe reference to debris imbalance. How is it you know this and everyone actually in the wind turbine business doesn't?

http://www.gcube-insurance.com/en/news_en/a-gcube-special-report-breaking-blades-global-trends-in-wind-turbine-downtime-events/
http://www.gcube-insurance.com/en/uncategorized/top-10-causes-for-turbine-failure/
https://www.windpowerengineering.com/mechanical/bearings/wind-turbine-common-failures-solutions/
https://www.romaxtech.com/wind-farm-solutions/real-life-examples-of-recent-wind-turbine-failures-and-their-root-cause/
https://sites.google.com/site/metropolitanforensics/cause-and-contributing-factors-of-failure-of-wind-turbines

Tenpoundbass says
If each blade weighed a ton like on those turbines. You've got three tons of wobbly steel


A ton? Really? The most commonly used ge 1.5 megawatt turbine is 36 tons per blade. Want to do an anlysis of how much dust it takes to unbalance 108 tons for us?

A bird strike, wow I bet turbine blade engineers never thought of that. Or maybe they did. Maybe they even designed blades to absorb bird impacts and tested them. What a concept. https://www.irjet.net/archives/V4/i8/IRJET-V4I8112.pdf

Hassan_Rouhani says
This shit is trivial from aircraft industry POV.


Exactly.
45   Tenpoundbass   ignore (11)   2018 Jun 14, 3:04pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

bob2356 says
Where's the dust?

Broke off when it crashed with a mighty smash. Also don't forget about Ice.
46   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 14, 3:08pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Tenpoundbass says
bob2356 says
Where's the dust?

Broke off when it crashed with a mighty smash. Also don't forget about Ice.


ROFL. So dust crashed tons of steel. he he he.
I ain't flying on an airplane anymore unless it's dust free.
47   bob2356   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 14, 3:44pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Strategist says
ROFL. So dust crashed tons of steel. he he he.
I ain't flying on an airplane anymore unless it's dust free.


You don't have to worry anyway, airplanes are aluminium. Your car is a different issue. Watch out for dust on the tire rims They will wobble and fall off.
48   Heraclitusstudent   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 14, 4:34pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Strategist says
The cost of electricity from that plant now stands at 5 cents per kWh according to Green Tech Media — exactly double what electricity from AZ Solar 1 will cost.

Arizona could get most of its electricity from solar. It's not like they lack empty space or sun.
49   Hassan_Rouhani   ignore (2)   2018 Jun 14, 5:03pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

bob2356 says
Strategist says
ROFL. So dust crashed tons of steel. he he he.
I ain't flying on an airplane anymore unless it's dust free.


You don't have to worry anyway, airplanes are aluminium. Your car is a different issue. Watch out for dust on the tire rims They will wobble and fall off.


Rims on my cars are aluminum too. I guess I'm safe from the "dust death wobble"!
51   Feux Follets   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 14, 5:28pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Effect of dust on the performance of wind turbines

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/229052575_Effect_of_dust_on_the_performance_of_wind_turbines

You are free to request the full PDF file
52   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 14, 5:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Feux Follets says
Effect of dust on the performance of wind turbines

https://www.lenntech.com/abstracts/1671/effect-of-dust-on-the-performance-of-wind-turbines.html


Holy shit. The article said everything except the only thing I want to know.......Does dust affect the output and efficiency of a wind turbine, and if so, by how much?
53   Feux Follets   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 14, 5:42pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Strategist says
Holy shit. The article said everything except the only thing I want to know.......Does dust affect the output and efficiency of a wind turbine, and if so, by how much?


type in "effect of dust on wind turbines" - there are tons of articles out there on this that go into much more detail - it can be a significant reduction in power output, efficiency and premature wear due to the leading edge of the blades becoming distorted.

Don't use google as a search engine if you can help it.
54   Feux Follets   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 14, 6:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

@Strategist

TBP is correct in one sense concerning deposits on a turbine rotor. Say in the case of silica that precipitates out and then deposits on the turbine blades of a high speed turbine driving a compressor or generator.

This can occur extremely quickly especially in high pressure steam systems of 1,500 psig or above.

The results of that can be anywhere from merely expensive maintenance to requiring a new rotor. Needless to say replacement rotors are not a shelf item so the costs are horrendous in terms of everything.

As far as the wind turbines dust mainly appears to be an erosion agent which in turn will start to affect other components over time.
55   Tenpoundbass   ignore (11)   2018 Jun 14, 6:14pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

bob2356 says
Your car is a different issue. Watch out for dust on the tire rims They will wobble and fall off.


If your rims has a 50 foot diameter then the precise balance would be more important than it is. You still wear your tires faster with dirty rims and tires that have a chunk of rubber missing on one side vs the other. Scale that up to the size of a wind turbine and go at that speed on out of balance tires and see how fun that is.
56   Strategist   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 14, 6:18pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Feux Follets says
TBP is correct in one sense concerning deposits on a turbine rotor. Say in the case of silica that precipitates out and then deposits on the turbine blades of a high speed turbine driving a compressor or generator.

This can occur extremely quickly especially in high pressure steam systems of 1,500 psig or above.

The results of that can be anywhere from merely expensive maintenance to requiring a new rotor. Needless to say replacement rotors are not a shelf item so the costs are horrendous in terms of everything.

As far as the wind turbines dust mainly appears to be an erosion agent which in turn will start to affect other components over time.


OK, I get it. Here is my point........All those negatives are already incorporated in the calculations to arrive at a long term cost per KwH, AKA the levelized cost per KwH. Wind turbines have been around for decades, with more research and more money thrown at the technology, which is why costs keep dropping.
57   Feux Follets   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 15, 12:13am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Forgot to mention the example I gave was for high speed turbine rotors - the 8-10,000 rpm kind and also in low speed rotors of the 3,600 rpm kind.
58   bob2356   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 15, 6:08am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Strategist says

Holy shit. The article said everything except the only thing I want to know.......Does dust affect the output and efficiency of a wind turbine, and if so, by how much?


Sure it did. the effect of dust on the performance of pitch-regulated wind turbine is low

Nothing about dust death wobble though.

Feux Follets says
type in "effect of dust on wind turbines" - there are tons of articles out there on this that go into much more detail - it can be a significant reduction in power output, efficiency and premature wear due to the leading edge of the blades becoming distorted.


I tried 3 different search engines and found only the original article quoted and requoted. Why didn't they go look at actual wind turbines instead of playing with models in a lab? The word they used for the effect of dust is low. I wasn't aware low was a synonym for significant.

The pdf is only available if you pay for it.
59   bob2356   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 15, 6:12am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Tenpoundbass says
You still wear your tires faster with dirty rims


You're killing me here captain. I almost pissed myself laughing. Maybe dirty rims after you run the through a foot of georgia red clay ala my cousin vinny.

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