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Tipping point for large-scale social change - 25 percent of people in a group

By Feux Follets following x   2018 Jun 8, 1:53am 316 views   15 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    


According to a new paper published in Science, there is a quantifiable answer: Roughly 25% of people need to take a stand before large-scale social change occurs. This idea of a social tipping point applies to standards in the workplace and any type of movement or initiative.

Online, people develop norms about everything from what type of content is acceptable to post on social media, to how civil or uncivil to be in their language. We have recently seen how public attitudes can and do shift on issues like gay marriage, gun laws, or race and gender equality, as well as what beliefs are or aren't publicly acceptable to voice.

During the past 50 years, many studies of organizations and community change have attempted to identify the critical size needed for a tipping point, purely based on observation. These studies have speculated that tipping points can range anywhere between 10 and 40%.

The problem for scientists has been that real-world social dynamics are complicated, and it isn't possible to replay history in precisely the same way to accurately measure how outcomes would have been different if an activist group had been larger or smaller.

"What we were able to do in this study was to develop a theoretical model that would predict the size of the critical mass needed to shift group norms, and then test it experimentally," says lead author Damon Centola, Ph.D., associate professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Annenberg School for Communication and the School of Engineering and Applied Science.

Drawing on more than a decade of experimental work, Centola has developed an online method to test how large-scale social dynamics can be changed.

In this study, "Experimental Evidence for Tipping Points in Social Convention," co-authored by Joshua Becker, Ph.D., Devon Brackbill, Ph.D., and Andrea Baronchelli, Ph.D., 10 groups of 20 participants each were given a financial incentive to agree on a linguistic norm. Once a norm had been established, a group of confederates -- a coalition of activists that varied in size -- then pushed for a change to the norm.

When a minority group pushing change was below 25% of the total group, its efforts failed. But when the committed minority reached 25%, there was an abrupt change in the group dynamic, and very quickly the majority of the population adopted the new norm. In one trial, a single person accounted for the difference between success and failure.

The researchers also tested the strength of their results by increasing the payments people got for adhering to the prevailing norm. Despite doubling and tripling the amount of money for sticking with the established behavior, Centola and his colleagues found that a minority group could still overturn the group norm.

Full Article: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180607141009.htm

#SocialChange #MinorityAndMajority

1   Tenpoundbass   ignore (11)   2018 Jun 8, 5:53am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

That works until the money runs out and Soros can't pay that 25%
Real social change is found at the end of Guns. Take those away you got an agreeable rabble.
2   BlueSardine   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 8, 6:23am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

So alls we gots to do is get 25% of beta libbies laid and the whole gay cake thing goes away?
3   Feux Follets   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 8, 6:36am   ↑ like (4)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

It may be prudent for those who have already commented to realize this is how Potus got into office but then that would require a thought now wouldn't it ?

Another small minority can also come about to remove him, undo his policy changes, bring changes to gun laws, pretty much anything.
4   HEYYOU   ignore (13)   2018 Jun 8, 7:04am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Social change is found in empty wallets of Republicans due to boycotts.
The dollar is stronger than the vote or the gun.
5   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 8, 7:13am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Feux Follets says
It may be prudent for those who have already commented to realize this is how Potus got into office but then that would require a thought now wouldn't it ?


That was actually my first thought! It was about 25% of Americans who voted for the orange guy, fed up with the status quo, and wanting REAL change, not just “Hope and Change.” Definitely people with an anti-establishment bent, which isn’t surprising considering how poorly the establishment was managing the country.
6   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 8, 7:15am   ↑ like (5)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

This study also lends much credence to the well known theory that 20-25% Muslim population in a country leads with near certainty to 100% Muslim and Islamic Rule.
Thanks for posting, Feux!
7   Patrick   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 8, 7:27am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Feux Follets says
Roughly 25% of people need to take a stand before large-scale social change occurs.


But then what happens if you get two 25% groups who are both equally determined? Civil war?
8   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 8, 7:50am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

So it takes 25% to become SJW before we become a nation of leftie lunatics?
9   BlueSardine   ignore (1)   2018 Jun 8, 7:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Oxymoron
When is war ever civil???

Patrick says
But then what happens if you get two 25% groups who are both equally determined? Civil war?
10   Sniper   ignore (11)   2018 Jun 8, 8:46am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Feux Follets says
These studies have speculated that tipping points can range anywhere between 10 and 40%.


Wait, what about the tipping point of the American Revolution, where 3% of Patriots were able to fight off the British to gain our independence?

Does it now take between 10% and 40% because the nation is infiltrated with Pajama Boys?

11   TwoScoopsOfWompWomp   ignore (2)   2018 Jun 8, 10:47am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Feux Follets says
Online, people develop norms about everything from what type of content is acceptable to post on social media, to how civil or uncivil to be in their language. We have recently seen how public attitudes can and do shift on issues like gay marriage, gun laws, or race and gender equality, as well as what beliefs are or aren't publicly acceptable to voice.


In other words, censorship. I oppose any and all forms, including back before the internet when it was only one-way oligarch communications, aka Network TV.

Feux Follets says
When a minority group pushing change was below 25% of the total group, its efforts failed. But when the committed minority reached 25%, there was an abrupt change in the group dynamic, and very quickly the majority of the population adopted the new norm. In one trial, a single person accounted for the difference between success and failure.


Good thing the NRA has 4.5M members and no Gun Grabbing Org has a membership larger than a tiny fraction of that.
12   P N Dr Lo R   ignore (0)   2018 Jun 8, 3:25pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Well we have 70% out-of-wedlock black births and 40% plus out-of-wedlock white births--either of which would have been considered both impossible and a disaster 50 years ago--but here we are.
13   jazz_music   ignore (2)   2018 Jun 8, 9:16pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

BlueSardine says
So alls we gots to do is get 25% of beta libbies laid and the whole gay cake thing goes away?

Studies show the majority are overcome with the urge to forcibly fuck the face (to completion) of anyone who says "beta libbies"
14   jazz_music   ignore (2)   2018 Jun 8, 9:25pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

lostand confused says
So it takes 25% to become SJW before we become a nation of leftie lunatics?

Oh yes yes yes it is abundantly clear that alt-right neckbeards would be evicted from mommy's ISP and work for a big box employer and fail to use their faux rage to fight for the weekly wages that will get stolen from them.

Very astute observation.

Nice point about the connection between Trump and erotic asphyxiation suicides too.
15   jazz_music   ignore (2)   2018 Jun 8, 9:35pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

P N Dr Lo R says
Well we have 70% out-of-wedlock black births and 40% plus out-of-wedlock white births--either of which would have been considered both impossible and a disaster 50 years ago--but here we are.

This is a problem of expectations.

Todays child-bearing generation are adapting to radically different paradigms, diminished horizons, etc., and adjusting their goals and priorities accordingly. you have to be one of them to really understand the solutions they devise. Suffice to say that housing is no longer considered to be key to anything.




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