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Taleb on open borders

By Patrick following x   2018 Jul 1, 9:45pm 679 views   41 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    


https://twitter.com/nntaleb





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2   Patrick   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 1, 10:54pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Lol, so true.
3   Goran_K   ignore (2)   2018 Jul 1, 11:26pm   ↑ like (6)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        



Japan has the right idea.
4   TwoScoopsOfWompWomp   ignore (2)   2018 Jul 2, 3:05am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Yep, the Palestinians are REALLY kept in open air prisons in Syria and Lebanon.

What's funny is that there was a huge battle in some Syrian city not long ago, barrel bombs were dumped into their walled "Prison", and at least 50 people died.

But nobody gave a shit because Israel wasn't involved, LOL.
5   marcus   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 2, 5:50am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

The idea that democrats want open borders any time soon is a straw man. But sure, sometime in the distant future if Mexico was a lot like Canada, that would be great.

Maybe not doable. PRobably Mexico and the U.S. would both be self sufficient on energy before that happens, which was the context in which Hillary was talking about it in a speech. It was an aspiration, not a pragmatic suggestion about the near future.
6   Goran_K   ignore (2)   2018 Jul 2, 6:23am   ↑ like (5)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

So the whole Democrat push to abolish ICE is.... about preserving borders???

Mental gymnastics level 9000.
7   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 2, 6:43am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

The idea that democrats want open borders any time soon is a straw man

Then what is the point of a "Sanctuary City?" Why did Obama fight Arizona in enforcing US immigration law? The Democratic leadership DOES want open borders (along with some Repubs). Free flow immigration collaborators want a new supply of left wing votes and cheap labor, plus some labor under the illusion that our "declining fertility" needs a boost in order to pay Social Security. All are sellouts for a short term parochial benefit. Trump and his supporters are the only ones who are serious about controlling immigration.
8   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 2, 6:46am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

if Mexico was a lot like Canada, that would be great.

Why isn't Mexico in the same economic league as Canada? No shortage of people or resources.
9   Quigley   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 2, 8:30am   ↑ like (5)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

HeadSet says
Why isn't Mexico in the same economic league as Canada?


Mexico suffers from a paucity of trust. If you can’t trust the government to provide justice and security, you can’t trust local officials to protect private property, and you can’t trust police to not be hopelessly corrupt, then you can’t trust enough to make the investment of time, effort, and treasure to build Mexico up like Canada.

All government stems from the culture of the governed. Therefore it’s the Mexican culture which is to blame for it being a failed state.
10   Goran_K   ignore (2)   2018 Jul 2, 8:41am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

HeadSet says
Then what is the point of a "Sanctuary City?" Why did Obama fight Arizona in enforcing US immigration law? The Democratic leadership DOES want open borders (along with some Repubs). Free flow immigration collaborators want a new supply of left wing votes and cheap labor, plus some labor under the illusion that our "declining fertility" needs a boost in order to pay Social Security. All are sellouts for a short term parochial benefit. Trump and his supporters are the only ones who are serious about controlling immigration.


This is the actual unbiased truth.
11   HEYYOU   ignore (17)   2018 Jul 2, 8:56am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

HeadSet & Goran_K,
Obama is not President, Republican Donald Trump is President.
Millions of illegal Rapist & Murderers are allowed to roam our streets under a Republican controlled Govt.

There's some truth,represented by a 5 time draft dodger liar & his slimy ilk to mull over.
No bias,just fact, particularly the slimy ilk!
12   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 2, 9:59am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Millions of illegal Rapist & Murderers are allowed to roam our streets under a Republican controlled Govt.


Millions of illegal Rapists and Murderers? Millions of illegals, maybe, but no one seriously thinks that we have millions of Rapists and Murderers among them. In any case, the the millions of illegals are the net result of past policies, something that Trump is trying to change.
13   Aphroman   ignore (5)   2018 Jul 2, 10:28am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

Trump and his supporters are the only ones who are serious about controlling immigration.


Lolololol
14   Goran_K   ignore (2)   2018 Jul 2, 10:45am   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

HEYYOU says
Millions of illegal Rapist & Murderers


This is why no one believes leftist news sources of any kind.
15   MrMagic   ignore (9)   2018 Jul 2, 8:27pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

marcus says
The idea that democrats want open borders any time soon is a straw man.


16   bob2356   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 3, 5:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

Goran_K says
HEYYOU says
Millions of illegal Rapist & Murderers


This is why no one believes leftist news sources of any kind.


Trump said immigrants were rapists and murderers. You don't believe trump?
17   bob2356   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 3, 6:08am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

Sniper says
marcus says
The idea that democrats want open borders any time soon is a straw man.





Except deport more illegals every single year than trump has.
18   marcus   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 3, 6:15am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

Sniper says



I guess if you want to call beefing up border security in a huge way, while net immigration of undocumented mexicans went negative, nothing, then fine, that's just how you express your TDS.

One of Trumps biggest lies was when he was campaigning in the rust belt and he tried to sell them on the idea that the reason they didn't have good jobs was that illegal Mexicans and the Chinese were taking them.

The surprising part is how many gullible (perhaps not so intelligent) folks that resonated with, for some reason. You can't make this stuff up.
19   bob2356   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 3, 6:41am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

Goran_K says
So the whole Democrat push to abolish ICE is.... about preserving borders???

Mental gymnastics level 9000.


Ice doesn't do borders. The customs service and border patrol does borders. ICE has two primary components: Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) and Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO). Ice goes after people who have already gotten over the border.You really don't know how your own government works?

Mental gymnastics level 9000.
20   bob2356   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 3, 6:49am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote        

marcus says
I guess if you want to call beefing up border security in a huge way, while net immigration of undocumented mexicans went negative, nothing, then fine, that's just how you express your TDS.

One of Trumps biggest lies was when he was campaigning in the rust belt and he tried to sell them on the idea that the reason they didn't have good jobs was that illegal Mexicans and the Chinese were taking them.


Ok I'll bite, how many rust belt good jobs have been taken back from the illegal mexicans and chinos?

Net migration of undocumented mexicans has been negative since 2009. Going to be giving credit to Obama for that now?
21   MrMagic   ignore (9)   2018 Jul 3, 6:51am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

marcus says
I guess if you want to call beefing up border security in a huge way, while net immigration of undocumented mexicans went negative, nothing, then fine, that's just how you express your TDS.


Nice... the Liberal media doing a great job with their propaganda.... Now, let's look at TRUE facts....

Demonizing the Border Patrol Is Part of Comprehensive Immigration Reform.

By Michael C. Nicley on May 9, 2014 (Notice the Date?)

President Obama has taken extraordinary steps to restrict immigration law enforcement in our nation's interior. Ex-DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano was all too willing to support Obama's anti-enforcement ideology by implementing enforcement policies that effectively gifted amnesty to millions of illegal aliens. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents have had their hands tied to such an extent that an illegal alien who slips past the Border Patrol now faces little risk of being arrested and deported.

The Border Patrol took a sustained media beating when DHS refused to release their use-of-force policy. The public was justifiably outraged and DHS never attempted to provide a credible explanation for refusing to disclose lethal force guidelines.

Anti-immigration enforcement organizations like the ACLU and the American Immigration Council are churning out bogus reports that make outrageous allegations of abuse and corruption. DHS has conspicuously failed to respond with a full-throated defense of the agency's personnel or its critical public safety/national security mission.

Gutting border enforcement operations will be much easier for the Obama administration if the public believes the Border Patrol is an out-of-control agency in need of restraint and redirection. The destruction of public confidence in the agency's integrity and utility is now viewed as an achievable goal by historic anti-enforcement organizations. If the Border Patrol has been reduced to an ineffective, demoralized agency by the time Obama leaves office, he will consider it a notable success.


https://cis.org/Nicley/Demonizing-Border-Patrol-Part-Comprehensive-Immigration-Reform

Remind me again who was in ultimately in charge of the DHS and President in 2014?
22   Goran_K   ignore (2)   2018 Jul 3, 8:17am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

bob2356 says

Ice doesn't do borders. The customs service and border patrol does borders. ICE has two primary components: Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) and Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO). Ice goes after people who have already gotten over the border.You really don't know how your own government works?

Mental gymnastics level 9000.


Getting people out of the country who are illegally here is not part of enforcing the border?

Mental gymnastics 9,000,000.
23   dr6B   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 3, 9:44am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

bob2356 says
Net migration of undocumented mexicans has been negative since 2009. Going to be giving credit to Obama for that now?


Overall, illegal immigration was largely static from 2009 to 2014, as the drop in Mexican immigration was mostly offset by an increase from other areas, such as Central America and Asia. (In 2014 the two regions combined for an estimated 3.2 million illegal immigrants, just over half the total from Mexico.)

The overall number of illegal immigrants in the United States — from all countries of origin — held steady from 2009 to 2014 at around 11 million, Pew estimates.

In 2014, the Border Patrol apprehended more non-Mexicans than Mexicans for the first time in at least 60 years, Pew reported. Mexicans still accounted for about 52% of illegal immigration in 2014, though.

http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/statements/2017/apr/26/ron-kind/yes-experiencing-net-outflow-illegal-undocumented-/
24   MrMagic   ignore (9)   2018 Jul 3, 12:16pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

drB6 says
Overall, illegal immigration was largely static from 2009 to 2014, a


drB6 says
The overall number of illegal immigrants in the United States — from all countries of origin — held steady from 2009 to 2014 at around 11 million, Pew estimates.


How do they even know that? If an illegally crosses the border and doesn't get caught, how do they even know he's here?

How do they count invisible people?
25   dr6B   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 3, 2:03pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Sniper says
How do they even know that? If an illegally crosses the border and doesn't get caught, how do they even know he's here?

How do they count invisible people?

Part of estimation is easy - counting people who overstayed visas (entered but did not leave - Homeland Insecurity records). Part is more difficult (jumping over Rio Grande does not need any documents), and they can only estimate. Mexicans vs non-Mexicans is also easy to estimate statistically from ones caught by border patrol. Overall, the trend makes sense - less homes are built in US so less labor for illegals, and Mexico birth rate is plummeting, from 6 kids/woman in 70's to about 2 now.
26   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 3, 2:08pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

How do they count invisible people?

increase in number Democrat votes in Detroit and sanctuary cities.
27   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 3, 2:11pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Mexico birth rate is plummeting, from 6 kids/woman in 70's to about 2 now.

Normally, such a trend in lower fertility is caused by increasing living standards. Are Mexican women more on par with women in prosperous countries and less willing to be merely baby factories?
28   dr6B   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 3, 2:14pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

HeadSet says
Normally, such a trend in lower fertility is caused by increasing living standards. Are Mexican women more on par with women in prosperous countries and less willing to be merely baby factories?

I do not know for sure. Perhaps life standard has increased compared to 70's, and perhaps people are more educated. May be less people farm, where many kids is an economic advantage. If I would have to guess, birth rate is high in S. Mexico among highly discriminated against Mexican Indians, and very low in Mexico Cith and other urban centers.
30   bob2356   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 3, 5:09pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Goran_K says
bob2356 says

Ice doesn't do borders. The customs service and border patrol does borders. ICE has two primary components: Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) and Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO). Ice goes after people who have already gotten over the border.You really don't know how your own government works?

Mental gymnastics level 9000.


Getting people out of the country who are illegally here is not part of enforcing the border?

Mental gymnastics 9,000,000.


What part of past the border isn't clear? If people are still coming with all the press about the the border enforcement and crossing the desert then deportations they will never hear about aren't going to be a deterrent. Anything short of eliminating the jobs isn't going to be a deterrent. Remind me when the raids on employers and executive perp walks are going to begin under such a tough on illegals president. Not doing the one thing that would be effective in getting illegals to leave is a very very strange omission. You would almost think the whole crack down is just a big show to fire up the base.

ICE was formed to respond to national security threats. Until trump turned it into his personal political propaganda police force ICE was addressing a wide variety of threats. Now it is eating resources going after illegals that have been here 20 years with no problems because they got a speeding ticket while terrorist suspects, drug traffickers, gangs, and human traffickers aren't getting any resources for investigations. It's gotten so bad the investigations unit asked to be removed from ICE last week.

Congress needs to step in and reorganize ICE so it can effectively go after the most dangerous threats first rather than existing to do political photo ops for trump;. Before the right wing fake outrage begins note the word DISBAND is NOT in the sentence.
31   bob2356   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 3, 5:16pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Sniper says
https://cis.org/Nicley/Demonizing-Border-Patrol-Part-Comprehensive-Immigration-Reform


CIS. ROFLOL. The original just make shit up site. These are the clowns that claim operating the national parks is part of welfare for immigrants. Funny shtt. .
32   someone else   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 3, 5:20pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

bob2356 says
Anything short of eliminating the jobs isn't going to be a deterrent. Remind me when the raids on employers and executive perp walks are going to begin under such a tough on illegals president. Not doing the one thing that would be effective in getting illegals to leave is a very very strange omission.


I agree with Bob here. This is one of Trump's few failures (along with bowing to Saudi Arabia). The employers of illegals must go to jail if illegal immigration is to truly stop undercutting the wages of poor US citizens.

Why aren't they going to jail?
33   mell   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 3, 5:57pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

To be fair recently there have some harsh penalties been levied against firms, some could bankrupt them. Not jail time, but still harsh. Anything better than the Boosh/Obummer years so far. For jail time they need to change the laws, maybe they can get it done.
34   CBOEtrader   ignore (2)   2018 Jul 3, 7:26pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

bob2356 says
DISBAND is NOT in the sentence.


I'd be happy to disband our institutions and put them back together. In fact, I'd suggest we do this every few years to the nsa/cia/fbi/irs...all of them, even ice. Hopefully save enough money to build the wall in the process
35   Aphroman   ignore (5)   2018 Jul 3, 7:52pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

someone else says
bob2356 says
Anything short of eliminating the jobs isn't going to be a deterrent. Remind me when the raids on employers and executive perp walks are going to begin under such a tough on illegals president. Not doing the one thing that would be effective in getting illegals to leave is a very very strange omission.


I agree with Bob here. This is one of Trump's few failures (along with bowing to Saudi Arabia). The employers of illegals must go to jail if illegal immigration is to truly stop undercutting the wages of poor US citizens.

Why aren't they going to jail?


It seems obvious that anything short of jailing employers, and cracking down on landlords renting to illegal immigrants, render any wall useless.

How is Fixing Healthcare not Trumpublicans biggest failure? They crowed on and on and on about repealing Obamacare, then they have power of the entire government, and can’t be bothered to even attempt to change Obamacare?

The media sure has been soft as all hell on Trump wrt Trumpcare. Why is that?
36   someone else   ignore (0)   2018 Jul 3, 8:19pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Aphroman says
How is Fixing Healthcare not Trumpublicans biggest failure? They crowed on and on and on about repealing Obamacare, then they have power of the entire government, and can’t be bothered to even attempt to change Obamacare?


@Aphroman Tump and the Republicans did repeal Obamacare mandate. Starting in 2019, no one will be legally obligated to buy health insurance or face a fine, as it was under Obamacare.

I think that's a good thing.
37   CBOEtrader   ignore (2)   2018 Jul 3, 8:33pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

Aphroman says
and can’t be bothered to even attempt to change Obamacare?


http://fortune.com/2017/12/20/tax-bill-individual-mandate-obamacare/

Patrick says
I think that's a good thing.


Its a very good thing.
38   bob2356   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 3, 9:04pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

mell says
To be fair recently there have some harsh penalties been levied against firms, some could bankrupt them. Not jail time, but still harsh. Anything better than the Boosh/Obummer years so far. For jail time they need to change the laws, maybe they can get it done.


Want to provide some of those harsh penalties that have been levied since trump was elected. To my knowledge there has been 1 sweep, 55 7-11 operators arrested, 9 prosecuted, sentenced to paying back wages. I'm sure the executives of smithfield and tyson go to sleep every night terrified. Are there more than aren't reported anywhere?

Trump wasn't always against hiring illegals. How convenient. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/27/nyregion/trump-tower-illegal-immigrant-workers-union-settlement.html

Read the statute. A pattern of knowingly employing illegal immigrants can mean up to six months in jail for an employer. No change to the law needed, although it could be made more strict to put first time offenders in jail.
39   mell   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 3, 11:05pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

bob2356 says
Read the statute. A pattern of knowingly employing illegal immigrants can mean up to six months in jail for an employer. No change to the law needed, although it could be made more strict to put first time offenders in jail.


Yeah well without a minimum jail time this is useless - it's like those laws that say with fines up to $1000 but in reality nobody is ever cited not even for $10.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/19/us/ice-raid-meat-supplier-fresh-mark/index.html

$95MM fine just for one company.
40   bob2356   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 5, 7:01am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

mell says
$95MM fine just for one company.


Wow an 80 million dollar fine out of 87 million total fines for the year. A whole 95 million fine and civil penalties for a 5 billion dollar company isn't much of a hit. A little more than 1% of revenue. Man that's going to leave a sore wrist for a couple of days. I wonder how much profit was made on using those illegals. Hint, a lot more than 95 million.

https://www.ice.gov/news/releases/asplundh-tree-experts-co-pays-largest-civil-settlement-agreement-ever-levied-ice
According to court documents, from 2010 until December 2014, Asplundh, an industry leader in tree trimming and brush clearance for power and gas lines, hired and rehired employees in many regions in the United States accepting identification documents it knew to be false and fraudulent. A six-year HSI audit and investigation revealed that the company decentralized its hiring so Sponsors (the highest levels of management) could remain willfully blind while Supervisors and General Foremen (2nd and 3rd level supervisors) hired ineligible workers, including unauthorized aliens, in the field. Hiring was by word of mouth referrals rather than through any systematic application process. This manner of hiring enabled Supervisors and General Foremen to hire a work force that was readily available and at their disposal.

Zero jail time. Zero. They couldn't' make the case of a pattern of knowingly hiring illegal immigrants. WTF, That's just gross incompetence or willing participation. justice can manage put pot dealers in jail though. Note the six year audit an investigation Trump wasn't president six years ago. Where are the trump prosecutions?

Another 7 million for the every other business in the US put together is not much of a deterrent. A whole 7 million in fines for every company in America other than asplundah.. Zero jail time. That's just amazing. Really amazing.

If trump really wanted to get rid of illegals instead of making a big meaningless show for his base to eat up he would get rid of jobs for illegals. Trump's a schmuck and total asshole but he's not stupid. He knows damn well as long as there are jobs illegals will get into the country. Most are visa overstayers who came in legally. He knew he was selling a crock of shit when he was campaigning. It's all a big joke and the politico's including trump are going home every night and laughing about how gullible the rubes that vote for them are.
41   dr6B   ignore (1)   2018 Jul 5, 7:48am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote        

bob2356 says
If trump really wanted to get rid of illegals

Ain't gonna happen. See which party biggest employers of illegals support:

https://www.opensecrets.org/industries//indus.php?ind=C02

I think all of this, including Trump's posturing about wall, D's posturing about separated children etc is just a big shitshow to distract attention while everything is being looted.

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