Not So Great Nate Silver is at it again. 538 was only wrong about every Republican Primary and the General Election of 2016, they got absolutely nothing right.
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2018 Aug 17, 5:42am 1,267 views 7 comments
by Tenpoundbass ➕follow (7) 💰tip ignore
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
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1
marcus
2018 Aug 17, 6:35am
marcus
2018 Aug 17, 6:35am
Another person that doesn't understand probability.
Say I tell you that with this full deck of shuffled cards, there is a 25% chance you will draw a heart.
You draw a card, and it's the 9 of hearts.
Guess what ? That doesn't mean I was wrong !! Yes, I implied that it was far more likely you would not draw the heart. I know it's not easy to comprehend, but that was true.
Say I tell you that with this full deck of shuffled cards, there is a 25% chance you will draw a heart.
You draw a card, and it's the 9 of hearts.
Guess what ? That doesn't mean I was wrong !! Yes, I implied that it was far more likely you would not draw the heart. I know it's not easy to comprehend, but that was true.
2
CBOEtrader
2018 Aug 17, 6:37am
CBOEtrader
2018 Aug 17, 6:37am
marcus says
We are choking on your smug.
*Shocking* that you are so wrong at the same time.
other person that doesn't understand probability.
We are choking on your smug.
*Shocking* that you are so wrong at the same time.
4
MrMagic
2018 Aug 17, 7:34am
MrMagic
2018 Aug 17, 7:34am
Nate's not looking to good these days... being wrong over and over seems to be taking it's toll on him.
5
MrMagic
2018 Aug 17, 10:46am
MrMagic
2018 Aug 17, 10:46am
AntiOcasioCortez says
But that's NOT what he did last election. He held out to the very end, and crashed and burned.
The Libbies have short memories, so he just rises to the top because he's blowing smoke up their skirts.
The Definition of Insanity.
Then, about a week...maybe a week-and-a-half before the actual election, he will 'revise' his election predictions to save his 'credibility' at the last minute.
But that's NOT what he did last election. He held out to the very end, and crashed and burned.
The Libbies have short memories, so he just rises to the top because he's blowing smoke up their skirts.
The Definition of Insanity.
6
LeonDurham
2018 Aug 17, 2:13pm
CBOEtrader says
How exactly was Marcus wrong? Please explain.
(I'm not holding my breath for the explanation)
*Shocking* that you are so wrong at the same time.
How exactly was Marcus wrong? Please explain.
(I'm not holding my breath for the explanation)
7
MrMagic
2018 Aug 17, 2:23pm
MrMagic
2018 Aug 17, 2:23pm
LeonDurham says
Because in Marcus' mind, if the odds are 99 to 1, and the 1 happens to hit, he claims he was right, even though everyone else knows it was a super longshot.
CBOEtrader says
*Shocking* that you are so wrong at the same time.
How exactly was Marcus wrong? Please explain.
(I'm not holding my breath for the explanation)
Because in Marcus' mind, if the odds are 99 to 1, and the 1 happens to hit, he claims he was right, even though everyone else knows it was a super longshot.
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