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Blue Wave? Democrats lose senate seat in special election in district with Hispanic majority that Hillary won by +9 points!!

By Goran_K following x   2018 Sep 19, 3:33pm 1,361 views   49 comments   watch   sfw   quote     share    


https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/pete-flores-scores-upset-over-pete-gallego-to-win-special-election/1458468015



Tuesday, Democrats lost a majority Hispanic Senate district and saw a poll of likely voters showing statewide gains may not be as large as they wanted.

The largest hit came from Senate District 19, which covers parts of south and West Texas. Earlier this year, the Democratic incumbent, Carlos Uresti, was convicted of multiple financial crimes and was forced to step down.

Then, Gov. Greg Abbott called a special election where a Republican made it to the runoff. That runoff between Republican Pete Flores and Democrat Pete Gallego was won by the GOP Tuesday 53 to 47.

In the past two general elections, the Democratic candidate won the district by 15 to 20 points. Flores will become the first Hispanic Republican to serve in the Texas Senate.


This along with news that a new Quinnipiac University Poll showed Sen. Cruz up by 9 points against O'Rourke in the U.S. Senate race is awesome. Nine points is the same difference Hillary Clinton lost the state by in the 2016 presidential election.

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11   HEYYOU   ignore (21)   2018 Sep 19, 4:27pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Polls always decide elections!
1 1/2 months before the election,what can happen?
Republicans or Democrats get elected,America loses!

What's Mueller know?
13   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 19, 4:57pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

dr6B says

With all due respect, that is Fake Polling Procedures.


What's fake?
14   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 19, 4:58pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

dr6B says
that seat hadn't been Republican for 139!!! yrs


The last Dem (who was criminally removed which lead to this special election in the first place) won by 15 points last election as well.

dr6B says
and if anything it is gerrymandered to enclose as many Hispanics as possible (66% Hispanic


Which is amazing if you think about it. Hispanics are "supposedly" reliably Dem which is why Dems want open borders.
15   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 19, 4:59pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

Booger says


This thread is another great illustration of Trump cultists lacking any cognitive ability and believing anything that gets posted on facebook.
16   d6rB   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 19, 5:06pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says

What's fake?

From the link I posted:

Chris Jackson, the Ipsos pollster, openly admitted that his team took a different approach to determining a likely voter.

"Our poll allows a bit more for enthusiasm," he said, explaining that typical turnout for a midterm election in Texas wouldn't take into account a wave of Democratic support that many experts are expecting in November. "Our electorate is a little browner, not quite as old and not as affluent."

I think this is engineered to have the desired result. I do not know why they want to engineer this result (other than making themselves feel good), because if polls will be close, R's will vote in droves to avoid election of a D as opposed to sitting at home and thinking that D can never be elected in TX.

Quinnipac poll gave a more believable 54/45 Cruz/O'Rourke split, and they have been pretty reliable lately.
17   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 19, 5:16pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I am a little surprised by the margin-Hilalry carried this district by 12 points I think? Interetsing-may it portend good tides for the republicans. We cannot have these loonies in charge.
18   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 19, 5:17pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (2)   quote   flag        

I read that but I fail to see what's fake. A pollsters job is to estimate the voter turnout and breakdown.

Obviously it's going to be different in 2018 than it was in 2016 or 2012.

Ipsos is a B+ pollster
Quinnipac is A-

So not really much difference in reliability between the two.
19   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 19, 5:19pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

dr6B says

Quinnipac poll gave a more believable 54/45 Cruz/O'Rourke split, and they have been pretty reliable lately.


This is the definition of confirmation bias. You believe the poll because it confirms what you think.
20   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 19, 5:32pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

lostand confused says
I am a little surprised by the margin-Hilalry carried this district by 12 points I think? Interetsing-may it portend good tides for the republicans. We cannot have these loonies in charge.


This is a historically big democrat district. Double digit DNC wins the past two elections and a Republican hasn’t held the seat for over a century.

It’s also nearly 70% Hispanic. This should worry Dems.
21   d6rB   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 19, 7:07pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
This is the definition of confirmation bias. You believe the poll because it confirms what you think.

May be. Lets wait until the election and then we will see.
22   d6rB   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 19, 7:08pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
It’s also nearly 70% Hispanic. This should worry Dems.

That (70% rural Hispanic) makes it also non-representative outside of TX.
23   RC2006   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 19, 7:24pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Booger says


This thread is another great illustration of Trump cultists lacking any cognitive ability and believing anything that gets posted on facebook.


Could you believe it if it came out of Sara Palin's mouth, same shit different retard and totally plausible. Some people Say dumb shit just like the dem that thought islands can tip over.
24   RC2006   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 19, 7:31pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

This why it's easy to believe anything no matter how bizzar.
25   MrMagic   ignore (11)   2018 Sep 19, 7:35pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Latest poll has Beto up 2 pts...


Nice link to that data....

Beto hasn't been up.... EVER.... I think you mean "behind less"...



26   HeadSet   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 19, 7:59pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Booger says


Ridiculous. Everyone knows that would only work if China was 12 hours behind us!
27   TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce   ignore (4)   2018 Sep 19, 8:06pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
This is the definition of confirmation bias. You believe the poll because it confirms what you think.


It's because the poll's definition of likely voter was singularly "unusual".


The Ipsos poll, done in partnership with Reuters and the University of Virginia, surveyed 992 voters over nine days earlier this month, garnering an error margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

It was done online, with the sample drawn from panels and then calibrated to reflect demographics.
It had a much different partisan breakdown, featuring 47 percent Republicans, 43 percent Democrats and 9 percent independents.

Chris Jackson, the Ipsos pollster, openly admitted that his team took a different approach to determining a likely voter.

"Our poll allows a bit more for enthusiasm," he said, explaining that typical turnout for a midterm election in Texas wouldn't take into account a wave of Democratic support that many experts are expecting in November. "Our electorate is a little browner, not quite as old and not as affluent."

And done via panels, online. After the pollsters selected for "Demographic" membership. Guess who is less likely to vote? Poor Young Minorities, the very people Ipsos weighted their poll in favor of.

Traditionally, likely voters are by phone and by "did you vote in the past election(s)?" Not by "How much do you hate Trump." "Man, I HATE THAT GUY. I would totally vote (nevermind I didn't vote in the past 4 elections)."

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/09/19/day-after-poll-shows-ted-cruz-blowing-away-beto-orourke-new-survey-shows-dead-heat-gives
28   APHAman   ignore (8)   2018 Sep 20, 2:20am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

How funny is it to watch Trumpcucks go full TDS and support a GOPe swamp monster. Is it lying Teds opinion of Trump that swung them?
29   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 20, 6:24am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

MrMagic says

Nice link to that data....

Beto hasn't been up.... EVER.... I think you mean "behind less"...


It's amazing that every other person reading this thread found the poll with no trouble. There's even a link provided above to the poll.

Here it is again:

https://www.opednews.com/articles/Ipsos-Reuters-poll-Beto-u-by-Stephen-Fox-Beto-O-Rourke-Us-Congressman-El-Paso_Get-Out-The-Vote-And-Registering-Voters_Hispanic-Voters_Immigration-Control-180919-824.html
30   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 20, 6:26am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
And done via panels, online. After the pollsters selected for "Demographic" membership. Guess who is less likely to vote? Poor Young Minorities, the very people Ipsos weighted their poll in favor of.

Traditionally, likely voters are by phone and by "did you vote in the past election(s)?" Not by "How much do you hate Trump." "Man, I HATE THAT GUY. I would totally vote (nevermind I didn't vote in the past 4 elections)."


We'll see. I think both the recent polls are outliers. Cruz isn't up 9 and Beto isn't up 2. That's why it's best to average a group of polls from respected pollsters. Probably Cruz is up 3-4 pts...
31   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 20, 6:34am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Aphroman says
How funny is it to watch Trumpcucks go full TDS and support a GOPe swamp monster. Is it lying Teds opinion of Trump that swung them?


It’s probably because Beta is a full on SJW Soros puppet. No one with two brain cells to rub together would vote for him.
32   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 20, 6:56am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

Goran_K says
It’s probably because Beta is a full on SJW Soros puppet. No one with two brain cells to rub together would vote for him.


Can you detail his policies that lead you to this conclusion?
33   APHAman   ignore (8)   2018 Sep 20, 6:59am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Goran_K says
It’s probably because Beta is a full on SJW Soros puppet. No one with two brain cells to rub together would vote for him.


Can you detail his policies that lead you to this conclusion?


Lol
34   lostand confused   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 20, 7:32am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Democrats never change-dems the champions of slavery , now hater of free speech and lovers of the police state-

Here is beto on what illegals are good for-LOLZ!!!!! Racist piece of trash-oh wrong party-if a repub said this-ya know what would happen.

https://www.breitbart.com/video/2018/09/19/watch-beto-orourke-to-black-american-illegal-immigrant-labor-needed-for-cotton-gin/
35   d6rB   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 20, 7:45am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
We'll see. I think both the recent polls are outliers. Cruz isn't up 9 and Beto isn't up 2. That's why it's best to average a group of polls from respected pollsters. Probably Cruz is up 3-4 pts...

Cruz will likely be up by 10 pts or so. Last time, 40% of Hispanics voted for him, and this special election shows that something is changing in at least TX rural Hispanic vote.
I personally will not vote for Cruz because he is a religious nut (or pretends to be one, which guarantees him extra Hispanic votes), and will not vote for O'Rourke also since election of people like him will turn our state into CA, and no one needs that.
36   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 20, 7:59am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

dr6B says
Cruz will likely be up by 10 pts or so. Last time, 40% of Hispanics voted for him, and this special election shows that something is changing in at least TX rural Hispanic vote.
I personally will not vote for Cruz because he is a religious nut (or pretends to be one, which guarantees him extra Hispanic votes), and will not vote for O'Rourke also since election of people like him will turn our state into CA, and no one needs that.


We'll see. No offense, but I think the average of good polls is probably a better indicator than your opinion.

Honestly, I imagine the Dems want polls to show Cruz with a 9 point lead. That might keep some of the national Republican money out of Texas...
37   APHAman   ignore (8)   2018 Sep 20, 8:15am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
dr6B says
Cruz will likely be up by 10 pts or so. Last time, 40% of Hispanics voted for him, and this special election shows that something is changing in at least TX rural Hispanic vote.
I personally will not vote for Cruz because he is a religious nut (or pretends to be one, which guarantees him extra Hispanic votes), and will not vote for O'Rourke also since election of people like him will turn our state into CA, and no one needs that.


We'll see. No offense, but I think the average of good polls is probably a better indicator than your opinion.

Honestly, I imagine the Dems want polls to show Cruz with a 9 point lead. That might keep some of the national Republican money out of Texas...


The Swamp is already dumping dark money on Pete Sessions and Lying Ted
38   d6rB   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 20, 8:17am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
We'll see. No offense, but I think the average of good polls is probably a better indicator than your opinion.

Honestly, I imagine the Dems want polls to show Cruz with a 9 point lead. That might keep some of the national Republican money out of Texas...


No offense taken.

In last few TX special elections R's have done well. Unless bottom falls out of economy here (meaning oil prices drop, exactly as Trump wants), status quo will likely be preserved. Low Trump election numbers in TX were result of him being a fucking orange godless Yankee.
39   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 20, 8:19am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
Can you detail his policies that lead you to this conclusion?


Sure.

- Pro Sanctuary City
- Anti-gun
- Pro - abortion
- Publicly supported Crapernick's Kneeling displays

Not least of all, Soros has dedicated millions to Texas, and FEC filings actually show Beta is receiving money from Soros.

So far, not working quite as planned since Dims lost a district they held for over a century in a place where Killary won by by near double digits.

RCP has Beta down 4.5 points, the reality is probably closer to 6-7.
40   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 20, 10:35am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag        

lol--

So anti gun is SJW?
Pro abortion is SJW?
Free speech is now SJW?
41   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 20, 10:37am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

dr6B says
Low Trump election numbers in TX were result of him being a fucking orange godless Yankee.


That's definitely possible. But his opponent was also a fucking orange godless Yankee too. Well except for the orange part.
42   MegaForce   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 20, 11:17am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

dr6B says
Latest poll has Beto up 2 pts...

Before or after Beto made the remark to an African-American that Illegal Aliens are needed to feed the cotton gin?
43   FortWayne   ignore (2)   2018 Sep 20, 11:19am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Waving your dick in public isn’t free speech, it’s stupid.

LeonDurham says
lol--

So anti gun is SJW?
Pro abortion is SJW?
Free speech is now SJW?
44   LeonDurham   ignore (0)   2018 Sep 20, 11:41am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

FortWayne says
Waving your dick in public isn’t free speech, it’s stupid.


Yep.. And what does that have to do with the price of tea in China?
45   d6rB   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 20, 12:06pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
That's definitely possible. But his opponent was also a fucking orange godless Yankee too. Well except for the orange part.


I'd say that there are fewer Yankee-haters among Hillary voters relative to Trump voters. In my neighborhood, which predictably votes R, there were zero Trump signs and one or 2 Hillary signs. It was as if everyone was ashamed of voting for him. Now they seem to like him.

In previous elections, there were tens of Romney signs and quite a few Obama signs.
46   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 20, 2:36pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

LeonDurham says
lol--

So anti gun is SJW?
Pro abortion is SJW?
Free speech is now SJW?


Yes, quacks like a SJW, is an SJW, along with the kneeling anthem love, and Soros money Beta is padding his wallet with.
47   Goran_K   ignore (1)   2018 Sep 20, 2:37pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

AntiOcasioCortez says
Before or after Beto made the remark to an African-American that Illegal Aliens are needed to feed the cotton gin?


Whew. That's not going to help his 5 point (more like 7-9 point) deficit.
48   APHAman   ignore (8)   2018 Sep 20, 3:17pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

dr6B says
LeonDurham says
That's definitely possible. But his opponent was also a fucking orange godless Yankee too. Well except for the orange part.


I'd say that there are fewer Yankee-haters among Hillary voters relative to Trump voters. In my neighborhood, which predictably votes R, there were zero Trump signs and one or 2 Hillary signs. It was as if everyone was ashamed of voting for him. Now they seem to like him.

In previous elections, there were tens of Romney signs and quite a few Obama signs.


Once it was clear to establishment Republicans that Trump was one of them, they came around.

Trump is stumping for Lying Ted
Trump and Romney swapping spit
Trump is supporting the Top Swamp Monster Pete Sessions

They’re politicians, so it’s not like it’s a huge surprise. But the Trump Cultists who claimed to love him because he was different than the GOPe, who now just get out the knee pads and start TDSing, it’s pathetic. Sad time for my Country

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