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Blue Wave? Democrats lose senate seat in special election in district with Hispanic majority that Hillary won by +9 points!!


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2018 Sep 19, 3:33pm   6,353 views  39 comments

by Goran_K   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/pete-flores-scores-upset-over-pete-gallego-to-win-special-election/1458468015



Tuesday, Democrats lost a majority Hispanic Senate district and saw a poll of likely voters showing statewide gains may not be as large as they wanted.

The largest hit came from Senate District 19, which covers parts of south and West Texas. Earlier this year, the Democratic incumbent, Carlos Uresti, was convicted of multiple financial crimes and was forced to step down.

Then, Gov. Greg Abbott called a special election where a Republican made it to the runoff. That runoff between Republican Pete Flores and Democrat Pete Gallego was won by the GOP Tuesday 53 to 47.

In the past two general elections, the Democratic candidate won the district by 15 to 20 points. Flores will become the first Hispanic Republican to serve in the Texas Senate.


This along with news that a new Quinnipiac University Poll showed Sen. Cruz up by 9 points against O'Rourke in the U.S. Senate race is awesome. Nine points is the same difference Hillary Clinton lost the state by in the 2016 presidential election.

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1   Goran_K   2018 Sep 19, 3:43pm  

Is this part of the blue wave? GOP senators in districts that Democrats won by 20+ points only a couple of years ago?
2   Bd6r   2018 Sep 19, 3:45pm  

Goran_K says
The largest hit came from Senate District 19, which covers parts of south and West Texas.

This might or might not be a special case, as R's in TX came to their senses and put up a Hispanic candidate for a Hispanic district, which paid off handsomely. TX Hispanics are fairly conservative to start out with, and having a candidate with Hispanic name gives the necessary push to win the election which in this case was not even close. Then again, may be it is a sign of a Red Wave - that seat hadn't been Republican for 139!!! yrs. Alternatively, TX rural Hispanics might be moving towards being conservative in their voting habits, perhaps because they are against abortion and many work in oil industry.

Edit: looked up District 19 map, and if anything it is gerrymandered to enclose as many Hispanics as possible (66% Hispanic). It straddles US-Mexico border
3   Bd6r   2018 Sep 19, 3:59pm  

AntiOcasioCortez says
And they become 'more' conservative just by standing in place as the Libs go full out extremist Libtard. The Libtards think that they are moving the Overton Window. More like Overton Bubble.

If rural Hispanics start voting like they did in this election, then D's in TX will really become extinct like dinosaurs and we will have our merry spectacle of 3 R factions fighting themselves to death exactly as Founding Fathers commanded, with no holds barred.

We will see if this is true in Cruz vs O'Rourke numbers later - Cruz also has an advantage of a Hispanic last name (this is what O'Rourke tries to counter by using Beto and not Robert as first name). Current governor Abbott's wife is Hispanic, and that was enough for winning many border counties and even some cities with Hispanic majorities.

Also, I am wondering how long it will take for Unbiased Media to start painting Flores as a Sexist, Racist, and Transphobe White Hispanic.
4   LeonDurham   2018 Sep 19, 4:08pm  

Latest poll has Beto up 2 pts...
5   Tenpoundbass   2018 Sep 19, 4:11pm  

Hispanics always vote Conservative when they are in communities that allows them to be American.
They fly the American flag share our values, and respect community as a whole.

Coastal White Liberals treat them like their own personal Puta they must stay poor, needy, and fly their home country flag, so they can make Political rancor over with the Real Americans.

They always make excuse "Oh Cubans are Conservative" No Florida Conservatives treat them like Americans.
"Oh Texans are Conservative." No they are the same Mexicans that are in California. They are treated better so they vote in their best interest.
8   LeonDurham   2018 Sep 19, 4:57pm  

dr6B says

With all due respect, that is Fake Polling Procedures.


What's fake?
9   Goran_K   2018 Sep 19, 4:58pm  

dr6B says
that seat hadn't been Republican for 139!!! yrs


The last Dem (who was criminally removed which lead to this special election in the first place) won by 15 points last election as well.

dr6B says
and if anything it is gerrymandered to enclose as many Hispanics as possible (66% Hispanic


Which is amazing if you think about it. Hispanics are "supposedly" reliably Dem which is why Dems want open borders.
10   LeonDurham   2018 Sep 19, 4:59pm  

Booger says


This thread is another great illustration of Trump cultists lacking any cognitive ability and believing anything that gets posted on facebook.
11   Bd6r   2018 Sep 19, 5:06pm  

LeonDurham says

What's fake?

From the link I posted:

Chris Jackson, the Ipsos pollster, openly admitted that his team took a different approach to determining a likely voter.

"Our poll allows a bit more for enthusiasm," he said, explaining that typical turnout for a midterm election in Texas wouldn't take into account a wave of Democratic support that many experts are expecting in November. "Our electorate is a little browner, not quite as old and not as affluent."

I think this is engineered to have the desired result. I do not know why they want to engineer this result (other than making themselves feel good), because if polls will be close, R's will vote in droves to avoid election of a D as opposed to sitting at home and thinking that D can never be elected in TX.

Quinnipac poll gave a more believable 54/45 Cruz/O'Rourke split, and they have been pretty reliable lately.
12   lostand confused   2018 Sep 19, 5:16pm  

I am a little surprised by the margin-Hilalry carried this district by 12 points I think? Interetsing-may it portend good tides for the republicans. We cannot have these loonies in charge.
13   LeonDurham   2018 Sep 19, 5:17pm  

I read that but I fail to see what's fake. A pollsters job is to estimate the voter turnout and breakdown.

Obviously it's going to be different in 2018 than it was in 2016 or 2012.

Ipsos is a B+ pollster
Quinnipac is A-

So not really much difference in reliability between the two.
14   LeonDurham   2018 Sep 19, 5:19pm  

dr6B says

Quinnipac poll gave a more believable 54/45 Cruz/O'Rourke split, and they have been pretty reliable lately.


This is the definition of confirmation bias. You believe the poll because it confirms what you think.
15   Goran_K   2018 Sep 19, 5:32pm  

lostand confused says
I am a little surprised by the margin-Hilalry carried this district by 12 points I think? Interetsing-may it portend good tides for the republicans. We cannot have these loonies in charge.


This is a historically big democrat district. Double digit DNC wins the past two elections and a Republican hasn’t held the seat for over a century.

It’s also nearly 70% Hispanic. This should worry Dems.
16   Bd6r   2018 Sep 19, 7:07pm  

LeonDurham says
This is the definition of confirmation bias. You believe the poll because it confirms what you think.

May be. Lets wait until the election and then we will see.
17   Bd6r   2018 Sep 19, 7:08pm  

Goran_K says
It’s also nearly 70% Hispanic. This should worry Dems.

That (70% rural Hispanic) makes it also non-representative outside of TX.
18   RC2006   2018 Sep 19, 7:24pm  

LeonDurham says
Booger says


This thread is another great illustration of Trump cultists lacking any cognitive ability and believing anything that gets posted on facebook.


Could you believe it if it came out of Sara Palin's mouth, same shit different retard and totally plausible. Some people Say dumb shit just like the dem that thought islands can tip over.
19   RC2006   2018 Sep 19, 7:31pm  

This why it's easy to believe anything no matter how bizzar.
www.youtube.com/embed/u1WSs9B4H5s
20   MrMagic   2018 Sep 19, 7:35pm  

LeonDurham says
Latest poll has Beto up 2 pts...


Nice link to that data....

Beto hasn't been up.... EVER.... I think you mean "behind less"...



21   HeadSet   2018 Sep 19, 7:59pm  

Booger says


Ridiculous. Everyone knows that would only work if China was 12 hours behind us!
22   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Sep 19, 8:06pm  

LeonDurham says
This is the definition of confirmation bias. You believe the poll because it confirms what you think.


It's because the poll's definition of likely voter was singularly "unusual".


The Ipsos poll, done in partnership with Reuters and the University of Virginia, surveyed 992 voters over nine days earlier this month, garnering an error margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

It was done online, with the sample drawn from panels and then calibrated to reflect demographics.
It had a much different partisan breakdown, featuring 47 percent Republicans, 43 percent Democrats and 9 percent independents.

Chris Jackson, the Ipsos pollster, openly admitted that his team took a different approach to determining a likely voter.

"Our poll allows a bit more for enthusiasm," he said, explaining that typical turnout for a midterm election in Texas wouldn't take into account a wave of Democratic support that many experts are expecting in November. "Our electorate is a little browner, not quite as old and not as affluent."

And done via panels, online. After the pollsters selected for "Demographic" membership. Guess who is less likely to vote? Poor Young Minorities, the very people Ipsos weighted their poll in favor of.

Traditionally, likely voters are by phone and by "did you vote in the past election(s)?" Not by "How much do you hate Trump." "Man, I HATE THAT GUY. I would totally vote (nevermind I didn't vote in the past 4 elections)."

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/09/19/day-after-poll-shows-ted-cruz-blowing-away-beto-orourke-new-survey-shows-dead-heat-gives
23   LeonDurham   2018 Sep 20, 6:24am  

MrMagic says

Nice link to that data....

Beto hasn't been up.... EVER.... I think you mean "behind less"...


It's amazing that every other person reading this thread found the poll with no trouble. There's even a link provided above to the poll.

Here it is again:

https://www.opednews.com/articles/Ipsos-Reuters-poll-Beto-u-by-Stephen-Fox-Beto-O-Rourke-Us-Congressman-El-Paso_Get-Out-The-Vote-And-Registering-Voters_Hispanic-Voters_Immigration-Control-180919-824.html
24   LeonDurham   2018 Sep 20, 6:26am  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
And done via panels, online. After the pollsters selected for "Demographic" membership. Guess who is less likely to vote? Poor Young Minorities, the very people Ipsos weighted their poll in favor of.

Traditionally, likely voters are by phone and by "did you vote in the past election(s)?" Not by "How much do you hate Trump." "Man, I HATE THAT GUY. I would totally vote (nevermind I didn't vote in the past 4 elections)."


We'll see. I think both the recent polls are outliers. Cruz isn't up 9 and Beto isn't up 2. That's why it's best to average a group of polls from respected pollsters. Probably Cruz is up 3-4 pts...
25   Goran_K   2018 Sep 20, 6:34am  

Aphroman says
How funny is it to watch Trumpcucks go full TDS and support a GOPe swamp monster. Is it lying Teds opinion of Trump that swung them?


It’s probably because Beta is a full on SJW Soros puppet. No one with two brain cells to rub together would vote for him.
26   LeonDurham   2018 Sep 20, 6:56am  

Goran_K says
It’s probably because Beta is a full on SJW Soros puppet. No one with two brain cells to rub together would vote for him.


Can you detail his policies that lead you to this conclusion?
27   lostand confused   2018 Sep 20, 7:32am  

Democrats never change-dems the champions of slavery , now hater of free speech and lovers of the police state-

Here is beto on what illegals are good for-LOLZ!!!!! Racist piece of trash-oh wrong party-if a repub said this-ya know what would happen.

https://www.breitbart.com/video/2018/09/19/watch-beto-orourke-to-black-american-illegal-immigrant-labor-needed-for-cotton-gin/
28   Bd6r   2018 Sep 20, 7:45am  

LeonDurham says
We'll see. I think both the recent polls are outliers. Cruz isn't up 9 and Beto isn't up 2. That's why it's best to average a group of polls from respected pollsters. Probably Cruz is up 3-4 pts...

Cruz will likely be up by 10 pts or so. Last time, 40% of Hispanics voted for him, and this special election shows that something is changing in at least TX rural Hispanic vote.
I personally will not vote for Cruz because he is a religious nut (or pretends to be one, which guarantees him extra Hispanic votes), and will not vote for O'Rourke also since election of people like him will turn our state into CA, and no one needs that.
29   LeonDurham   2018 Sep 20, 7:59am  

dr6B says
Cruz will likely be up by 10 pts or so. Last time, 40% of Hispanics voted for him, and this special election shows that something is changing in at least TX rural Hispanic vote.
I personally will not vote for Cruz because he is a religious nut (or pretends to be one, which guarantees him extra Hispanic votes), and will not vote for O'Rourke also since election of people like him will turn our state into CA, and no one needs that.


We'll see. No offense, but I think the average of good polls is probably a better indicator than your opinion.

Honestly, I imagine the Dems want polls to show Cruz with a 9 point lead. That might keep some of the national Republican money out of Texas...
30   Bd6r   2018 Sep 20, 8:17am  

LeonDurham says
We'll see. No offense, but I think the average of good polls is probably a better indicator than your opinion.

Honestly, I imagine the Dems want polls to show Cruz with a 9 point lead. That might keep some of the national Republican money out of Texas...


No offense taken.

In last few TX special elections R's have done well. Unless bottom falls out of economy here (meaning oil prices drop, exactly as Trump wants), status quo will likely be preserved. Low Trump election numbers in TX were result of him being a fucking orange godless Yankee.
31   Goran_K   2018 Sep 20, 8:19am  

LeonDurham says
Can you detail his policies that lead you to this conclusion?


Sure.

- Pro Sanctuary City
- Anti-gun
- Pro - abortion
- Publicly supported Crapernick's Kneeling displays

Not least of all, Soros has dedicated millions to Texas, and FEC filings actually show Beta is receiving money from Soros.

So far, not working quite as planned since Dims lost a district they held for over a century in a place where Killary won by by near double digits.

RCP has Beta down 4.5 points, the reality is probably closer to 6-7.
32   LeonDurham   2018 Sep 20, 10:35am  

lol--

So anti gun is SJW?
Pro abortion is SJW?
Free speech is now SJW?
33   LeonDurham   2018 Sep 20, 10:37am  

dr6B says
Low Trump election numbers in TX were result of him being a fucking orange godless Yankee.


That's definitely possible. But his opponent was also a fucking orange godless Yankee too. Well except for the orange part.
34   FortWayne   2018 Sep 20, 11:19am  

Waving your dick in public isn’t free speech, it’s stupid.

LeonDurham says
lol--

So anti gun is SJW?
Pro abortion is SJW?
Free speech is now SJW?
35   LeonDurham   2018 Sep 20, 11:41am  

FortWayne says
Waving your dick in public isn’t free speech, it’s stupid.


Yep.. And what does that have to do with the price of tea in China?
36   Bd6r   2018 Sep 20, 12:06pm  

LeonDurham says
That's definitely possible. But his opponent was also a fucking orange godless Yankee too. Well except for the orange part.


I'd say that there are fewer Yankee-haters among Hillary voters relative to Trump voters. In my neighborhood, which predictably votes R, there were zero Trump signs and one or 2 Hillary signs. It was as if everyone was ashamed of voting for him. Now they seem to like him.

In previous elections, there were tens of Romney signs and quite a few Obama signs.
37   Goran_K   2018 Sep 20, 2:36pm  

LeonDurham says
lol--

So anti gun is SJW?
Pro abortion is SJW?
Free speech is now SJW?


Yes, quacks like a SJW, is an SJW, along with the kneeling anthem love, and Soros money Beta is padding his wallet with.
38   Goran_K   2018 Sep 20, 2:37pm  

AntiOcasioCortez says
Before or after Beto made the remark to an African-American that Illegal Aliens are needed to feed the cotton gin?


Whew. That's not going to help his 5 point (more like 7-9 point) deficit.

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