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Election predictions


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2018 Oct 13, 10:17am   15,418 views  63 comments

by Bd6r   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

Let's just post here our election predictions, without swearing at each other or trying to justify why we think election will go one or another way. After election, we can dig this up and some (or none) of us will feel very intelligent.

My prediction: Senate: R gain 1
House: D gain 5.

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1   HeadSet   2018 Oct 13, 1:38pm  

I predict single digit gains for Republicans in both houses.
2   RWSGFY   2018 Oct 13, 4:14pm  

Aphroman says
Colin Allred


Who?

(Why do I get a feeling that Colin guy is somehow involved with narcotics?)
3   Shaman   2018 Oct 13, 7:45pm  

Senate: GOP picks up 7 seats.
House: GOP picks up 15 seats.

Red wave baby.
4   RC2006   2018 Oct 13, 9:28pm  

I think the GOP will pick up a few seats in both.
5   anonymous   2018 Oct 13, 10:33pm  

I think everything points to a red wave with the uptick in black support and the economy going well. I have a friend who is going to lose a bet to me with regards to this midterm and be proud owner of this coaster from my shop... https://www.etsy.com/listing/629104508/infinite-loop-coaster?ref=shop_home_active_1
6   lostand confused   2018 Oct 13, 11:17pm  

Senate GOP 56 or 57 seats
House GOP may lose a few seats but 230+
7   Sunnyvale94087   2018 Oct 14, 12:23am  

Come on over to PredictIt.com and put up your own money!
https://www.predictit.org/legacy/Market/2891/How-many-Senate-seats-will-the-GOP-hold-after-2018-midterms
https://www.predictit.org/legacy/Market/4214/How-many-House-seats-will-Democrats-hold-after-2018-midterms

For the record, I'm betting AGAINST 49 or fewer republican senate seats and FOR democrats having 217 or FEWER seats in the house. (i.e.: I'm betting FOR republicans in both cases) I'm not terribly hopeful for the house, but the payout is roughly 3:1, which makes it a little easier. Also of note: I put $10 into my account there 3 years ago and am having a lot of fun!
8   bob2356   2018 Oct 14, 6:14am  

Quigley says
Senate: GOP picks up 7 seats.
House: GOP picks up 15 seats.

Red wave baby


Man I want some of what you are smoking. Which are the 22 seats the R's are going to pick up?

I don't think there is going to be any blue wave. The big bucks dark money crowd that took 50 years getting control of all three branches of government and trumps butt bro putin aren't going to let dem's get control of the house and gain subpoena power. Dems will pick up some but not enough for a majority seats in the house after a deluge of big bucks 501 dark money spending and a russian led social media blitz against them for the next month..
9   Shaman   2018 Oct 14, 6:33am  

Every single house seat is up for grabs. That’s what happens when you motivate a bunch of people to go out and vote against a bunch of loony racist hateful Democrats.
11   bob2356   2018 Oct 14, 8:05am  

personal
12   CBOEtrader   2018 Oct 14, 8:06am  

bob2356 says
The big bucks dark money crowd that took 50 years getting control of all three branches of government and trumps butt bro putin aren't going to let dem's get control of the house


I haven't checked BUT when I do, you are saying the R's will have spent "Big bucks" compared to the dems? OR, will I find you are full of shit?

Save me the time and fess up.
15   marcus   2018 Oct 14, 8:14am  

Senate: Democrats gain one seat - not getting control

House: Democrats gain 39 seats
17   CBOEtrader   2018 Oct 14, 8:56am  

marcus says
Senate: Democrats gain one seat - not getting control

House: Democrats gain 39 seats


$500 says dems gain less than 39 seats.
18   marcus   2018 Oct 14, 9:07am  

It's a prediction. Something I can point to after the election, and of course it's hopeful.

I'll bet you the democrats gain more than 26. Sure, $500

Actually, I think I'd prefer to keep it down to $100. This is pretty aggressive on my part. And I'm not going any higher, becasue I said more than 26, that's 27 or more. A damn good offer. I haven't checked what book makers are saying, but I'm sure you couldn't get that. But I could probably get what you offered, or better from a bookie.
19   CBOEtrader   2018 Oct 14, 9:49am  

Look at that, we have a market? 26 @39, anyone have anything better? (tbf I offered better above)
20   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2018 Oct 14, 10:00am  

LMFAO

This:

bob2356 says
Quigley says
Every single house seat is up for grabs. That’s what happens when you motivate a bunch of people to go out and vote against a bunch of loony racist hateful Democrats.


So basically you are saying you don't have a clue other than it's true because I believe it should be true.


From the guy that posted this:

bob2356 says
Quigley says
Senate: GOP picks up 7 seats.
House: GOP picks up 15 seats.

Red wave baby


Man I want some of what you are smoking. Which are the 22 seats the R's are going to pick up?

I don't think there is going to be any blue wave. The big bucks dark money crowd that took 50 years getting control of all three branches of government and trumps butt bro putin aren't going to let dem's get control of the house and gain subpoena power. Dems will pick up some but not enough for a majority seats in the house after a deluge of big bucks 501 dark money spending and a russian led social media blitz against them for the next month..
21   Bd6r   2018 Oct 14, 10:43am  

bob2356 says
The big bucks dark money crowd that took 50 years getting control of all three branches of government

I don't think this is completely true. Big bucks dark money crowd was for Clinton.They do not care about party as long as candidate tows their line.
22   CBOEtrader   2018 Oct 14, 12:30pm  

personal
24   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Oct 14, 2:19pm  

Republicans gain 2-3 Senate Seats
Democrats gain a few Seats but don't flip the House.
25   bob2356   2018 Oct 14, 4:06pm  

CBOEtrader says
I haven't checked BUT when I do, you are saying the R's will have spent "Big bucks" compared to the dems? OR, will I find you are full of shit?

Save me the time and fess up.


dr6B says

I don't think this is completely true. Big bucks dark money crowd was for Clinton.They do not care about party as long as candidate tows their line.


No amount of money could have gotten hillary elected. I'm talking about the money prior to and outside of the fucking trump vs hillary which one sucks least joke election. Downstream from the presidential election outside groups spend 800 billion in 2016 on senate/house candidates 80% republican. Prior elections had the similar ratios including presidential candidates. The conservative organizations didn't support trump heavily but the damn sure put a lot of money into R candidates outspending the left wing anywhere form 2 to 4 to 1 for many years. It's running almost 3 to 1 so far this election cycle. https://www.opensecrets.org/outsidespending/summ.php?cycle=2018&type=p&disp=O

So the question stands, do you believe the dark money d business group and ultra rich libertarians are going to let their huge investment for the last 50 years to get where we are now go by the wayside and have the D's gain control of the house which would include subpoena power? Even trump is going to have a hard time fucking up that advantage, but it's not for lack of trying.
26   Bd6r   2018 Oct 14, 4:39pm  

bob2356 says
No amount of money could have gotten hillary elected.

But as we see Big Bucks wanted Hillary.

The website you pointed me to shows 242M for D's and 328M for R's in 2016, which is not a huge difference. Less that difference between Trump and Hillary spending. In this election cycle, O'Rourke has out-raised Cruz by a large margin. I do not think this is as simple as big money wants R's only"
https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2018/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-fundraising-texas-midterm-2018/
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/12/beto-orourke-raised-more-38-million-race-against-ted-cruz/
27   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Oct 14, 4:56pm  

CBOEtrader says
I don't think this is completely true. Big bucks dark money crowd was for Clinton.They do not care about party as long as candidate tows their line.


Fact check: True.



Even Soros can't put a lipstick on the pig who outspent Trump in Outside Money about 3:1
28   CBOEtrader   2018 Oct 14, 5:02pm  

What is outside money?
29   bob2356   2018 Oct 14, 5:10pm  

dr6B says
The website you pointed me to shows 242M for D's and 328M for R's in 2016, which is not a huge difference. Less that difference between Trump and Hillary spending. In this election cycle, O'Rourke has out-raised Cruz by a large margin. I do not think this is as simple as big money wants R's only"


No one said it's simple. Pull out the presidential amounts and see what the differences are. Go back to earlier elections. Look at who the groups are and who they represent.

The big donors passed on trump. Dark money spending 2016 was down 1/3 from 2012 presidential election because of that. But spending on congressional races was up. Good thing trump was running against hillary who no amount of money could prop up. 2018 isn't a presidential election year, it's only congressional races.

The question still stands. Are the people who spent the last 50 years building the current libertarian republican party dominance going to let D's control the house without spending very dime they can throw at the races?
30   bob2356   2018 Oct 14, 5:16pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Important Reminder: Hillary outraised Trump almost 2:1. 3:1 in outside money.


yawn. how many times does that make for the same meaningless point in only 1 thread. the money went downstream. there were candidates other than trump/hillary running in 2016. sorry you weren't aware of that.
31   Bd6r   2018 Oct 14, 5:17pm  

bob2356 says
The question still stands. Are the people who spent the last 50 years building the current libertarian republican party dominance going to let D's control the house without spending very dime they can throw at the races?

First, most R's (with exception of Paul who was redistricted out by his colleagues) are not libertarian. Second, I do not believe that "big money" cares which party is in power, so they will support "useful idiots" from either party.
32   Tenpoundbass   2018 Oct 14, 5:29pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says


That graphic is very misleading.
Trump defended himself against at least 2 billion of opposition candidate funds. If you go back to the primaries.
34   krc   2018 Oct 15, 4:49pm  

GOP picks up 3 senate seats.
Hold house by 2.
36   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Oct 15, 4:53pm  

bob2356 says
yawn. how many times does that make for the same meaningless point in only 1 thread. the money went downstream. there were candidates other than trump/hillary running in 2016. sorry you weren't aware of that.


Sorry, the Dems were pretty much broke after the election.

It has to be regularly drummed in the head of the left that Big Finance, Big Tech, etc. were big Hillary Supporters.

CBOEtrader says
He's totally full of it.


Multiple people in the thread had to repeat that fact, then he complained that the numbers disproving his conception of reality were being posted by multiple users.
37   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Oct 15, 4:54pm  

bob2356 says
yawn. how many times does that make for the same meaningless point in only 1 thread. the money went downstream. there were candidates other than trump/hillary running in 2016. sorry you weren't aware of that.


Hey Bob, did you read the instructions?
38   tatupu70   2018 Oct 15, 5:08pm  

CBOEtrader says
dr6B says
bob2356 says
The big bucks dark money crowd that took 50 years getting control of all three branches of government

I don't think this is completely true. Big bucks dark money crowd was for Clinton.They do not care about party as long as candidate tows their line.


He's totally full of it.


Help me out @Patrick. This has been flagged twice but keeps magically reappearing.

Posting--"He's totally full of it" about another poster is not a personal attack?
39   Patrick   2018 Oct 15, 5:31pm  

tatupu70 says
Posting--"He's totally full of it" about another poster is not a personal attack?



Yes, that is personal if it's about Bob. I marked it as personal myself now.
40   zzyzzx   2018 Oct 19, 9:52am  

https://www.breitbart.com/midterm-election/2018/10/19/exclusive-scott-adams-predicts-greatest-turnout-by-republicans-maybe-ever-in-midterms/

Scott Adams Predicts ‘Greatest Turnout by Republicans, Maybe Ever’ in Midterms

Adams predicted in August 2015 that Donald Trump would win the Republican nomination for president, based on his analysis of Trump’s persuasion skills. He also suggested that Trump had a chance of defeating Hillary Clinton.

At the time, few others agreed, but Adams was correct — and has made several other successful predictions since. His Twitter feed and his morning Periscopes have become essential reading and viewing — and are evidently followed closely by the White House.

He told Breitbart News it is too difficult to predict which party will win the November midterm elections, because there are too many local variations in state-by-state and district-by-district battles, “too many variables bigger than persuasion.”

But he predicts that we will see “the greatest turnout by Republicans, maybe ever.”

Republicans, he suggests, have a stronger message, in pointing to the “mobs” that the left have mobilized in protest around the country over the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and other issues. Fear is the most powerful persuasive force, he argues. That — and the sheer fun of winning bigly — could drive GOP voters to the polls.

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