patrick.net

Eventually, yes.

There will be a recession before it hits 4%, and in that recession it will fall to 2%.
Way too much debt around for rates to rise.

Heraclitusstudent says

There will be a recession before it hits 4%, and in that recession it will fall to 2%.

Powell said he is raising rates to keep the economy from overheating. By raising rates, he'll be able to lower them in an economic downturn. But by raising rates, he may cause the downturn.

Yes, the 30 year bond will hit 4%. No one knows exactly when.
The economy is much too hot. We don't need to create any more jobs right now. There are not enough job applicants to fill available jobs.
Trump needs to take the opportunity and start cutting the deficits. If we cannot or will not cut the deficits now in the middle of a spectacular economic boom, how are we ever gonna cut the deficits? We need to save for a rainy day.

MisterLefty says

But by raising rates, he may cause the downturn.

The whole point is to cause a downturn. There is no such thing as a permanently high employment plateau.

Heraclitusstudent says

The whole point is to cause a downturn. There is no such thing as a permanently high employment plateau.

The planned downturn was cancelled on November 9th, 2016.

Quigley says

The planned downturn was cancelled on November 9th, 2016.

Rainbows and unicorns!

Heraclitusstudent says

MisterLefty says

But by raising rates, he may cause the downturn.

The whole point is to cause a downturn.

Slowdown, my friend, a slowdown.

Rates be going up.

Jobs smash estimates with gain of 250,000, wage gains pass 3% for first time since recession

Strategist says

Heraclitusstudent says

MisterLefty says

But by raising rates, he may cause the downturn.

The whole point is to cause a downturn.

Slowdown, my friend, a slowdown.

You can't just slowdown. This thing only goes forward at a certain speed - or backward.
The labor pool is exhausted, employment can't grow, time to weed out the weak.

They call it a "soft landing"