patrick.net

I hate it when the Realtors start working at Home Depot again. They never know where anything is, and they are always trying to pickpocket your wallet and phone.

I just got a bunch of glossy house listing mailers in the mail today. Can't remember the last time I got mailers.

If prop 10 passes, you'll see a lot of real estate on the market. And absolutely 0 new construction.

All investors will abandon, unless they've owned from way back when and just don't care.

You can always throw anchor babies to the Realtors, and escape while they are consuming them.

Interest rates and mortgage rates are heading up due the the recent employment numbers and pumping economy.

So let's see:
Pension funds - winners
Retired, fixed income - winners
Workers - winners
Home buyers - winners

Fucking Trump!

Home sales YoY: down
Home prices YoY: up
Interest rates YoY: up
Home affordability: worse than its ever been in history of the world lol

Lower home sales is a great start. But ultimately this doesn’t matter much to home buyers priced out of the current market until home affordability improves.

Here's one I just saw that made me laugh. Some sucker will eventually buy this.

"Home (house) for Sale"

118 Rankin St. Santa Cruz, CA
3 Beds, 1bath (WTF?) 1064 square feet
$849,000

I'm glad they're not asking for an outrageous amount like $850K or anything.

Property tax here will be about $10,000+ per year.

What is a $700,000 mortgage payment? About $3800 per month?

Someone who works at Amazon, Apple, Facebook, etc. will buy it maybe.

clambo says

Someone who works at Amazon, Apple, Facebook, etc. will buy it maybe.

Unlikely, since the commute on Hwy 17 over the mountain is impractical.

We would already have price decreases if it wasn’t for the KEEP YOUR HOME CALIFORNIA bailout.

clambo says

Someone who works at Amazon, Apple, Facebook, etc. will buy it maybe.

Strange, that area is still in the homeless, crime and druggie doglegs from downtown SC, but it USED to be an area where a lot of less well heeled families raised their children. Sugar shacks anywhere close to the beach are gong to cost, even if they are fall down, well, just because. Fucking trust fund hippies.

Not to troll, but I know guys who commute over the hill to Cupertino and Santa Clara from Santa Cruz.

17 is much much easier to drive now that Lonestar Cement closed in Davenport; the cement trucks on 17 really messed up the traffic flow.

17 has just 2 lanes and the cars would become stuck behind the cement trucks and congestion ensued. Now it's OK although it's still pretty insane.

Patrick says

clambo says

Someone who works at Amazon, Apple, Facebook, etc. will buy it maybe.

Unlikely, since the commute on Hwy 17 over the mountain is impractical.

No wonder it's at half price. An $849K home is for the very poor in the BA.

Middle class taxed and inflated out of CA. 5th largest world economy, take heed, it's a canary, and it is said CA will be in recession by 2020.

On the other hand, you can only flip a home so many times before someone gets trapped in it, that sets the standards for the new home prices, and affordability, ability to make payment, etc.. And, it takes time for realtors to figure out people are not paying the going price, they'll reel in the last few suckers they can find, then finally the owners will say, hey I want to sell this thing lets drop the price, and the realtor will go -- uhh, ok.

Still, in a few years ZIRP will be back, we will see interest rates lower than we ever thought we would see. Look at all this debt, it's going to need to be rolled over eventually, the banks will go along with it, they would rather accept interest payment at any level vs. non-payment.

How so again? No interest rate increases over the last decades have lasted more than a few years. All were followed by recessions.
What's different this time though. Government spending is propping sectors of the economy like never before (i.e. health care industry pushing 25% GDP), I guess that could continue as well as military complex. Interest rates are only going up to roll over as many bonds as possible?, and make them look good (for now), as well, otherwise the debt train cannot continue. All else being same, systemic issues are unchanged. Gold bugs say 100 trillion debt is feasible, and government spending is parabolic vs. uptrend.

I mean c'mon, the debt isn't paid back, but banks are going to need interest payments, larger debt loads can support smaller interest rates all day. Germany has 2% home mortgage rates. I'm on a 2.625%/15 year rate, the long term trend for interest rates is down. Only lower future rates can keep home prices up, which is what banks want, and we know they'll get what they want. Fed just knows the economy is over heating, as long as inflation stays tame they are saying they may not hike.

everything says

Middle class taxed and inflated out of CA. 5th largest world economy, take heed, it's a canary, and it is said CA will be in recession by 2020.

That has been said every year, over the past 50 years. Yet, CA is now the 5th largest economy in the world.

Strategist says

everything says

Middle class taxed and inflated out of CA. 5th largest world economy, take heed, it's a canary, and it is said CA will be in recession by 2020.

That has been said every year, over the past 50 years. Yet, CA is now the 5th largest economy in the world.

I can see trouble coming. Spending habits here don't match reality. Left constantly tries to turn it into socialist (failed) state, sooner or later they might succeed. Special interest groups constantly solving their personal emotional problems, increasing unnecessary harassment of regular people with more regulation and laws. Homelessness is through the roof, and liberals are now assaulting prop 13. And if prop 13 goes, middle class will die out instantly.

FortWayneIndiana says

Strategist says

everything says

Middle class taxed and inflated out of CA. 5th largest world economy, take heed, it's a canary, and it is said CA will be in recession by 2020.

That has been said every year, over the past 50 years. Yet, CA is now the 5th largest economy in the world.

I can see trouble coming. Spending habits here don't match reality. Left constantly tries to turn it into socialist (failed) state, sooner or later they might succeed. Special interest groups constantly solving their personal emotional problems, increasing unnecessary harassment of regular people with more regulation and laws. Homelessness is through the roof, and liberals are now assaulting prop 13. And if prop 13 goes, middle class will die out instantly.

You mean if prop 13 goes, everyone pays their share for police, fire, and roads instead of putting it on the backs of young families?

BayArea says

FortWayneIndiana says

Strategist says

everything says

Middle class taxed and inflated out of CA. 5th largest world economy, take heed, it's a canary, and it is said CA will be in recession by 2020.

That has been said every year, over the past 50 years. Yet, CA is now the 5th largest economy in the world.

I can see trouble coming. Spending habits here don't match reality. Left constantly tries to turn it into socialist (failed) state, sooner or later they might succeed. Special interest groups constantly solving their personal emotional problems, increasing unnecessary harassment of regular people with more regulation and laws. Homelessness is through the roof, and liberals are now assaulting prop 13. And if prop 13 goes, middle cl...

Clearly your view of fair share is not same as my fair share. How about you liberals stop spending like drunken sailors, so rest of us have to pay less for your noble causes.

Liberals and their equality crusade never fails to amaze me, like little children... "wah wah wah someone pays less then me, wah wah wah" You knew what you were buying when you paid, deal with it.

BayArea says

FortWayneIndiana says

Strategist says

everything says

Middle class taxed and inflated out of CA. 5th largest world economy, take heed, it's a canary, and it is said CA will be in recession by 2020.

That has been said every year, over the past 50 years. Yet, CA is now the 5th largest economy in the world.

I can see trouble coming. Spending habits here don't match reality. Left constantly tries to turn it into socialist (failed) state, sooner or later they might succeed. Special interest groups constantly solving their personal emotional problems, increasing unnecessary harassment of regular people with more regulation and laws. Homelessness is through the roof, and liberals are now assaulting prop 13. And if prop 13 goes, middle cl...

Agreed. While I can see the case for never ceding any tax shelter to the government prop13 is an abomination responsible to a large part for the price distortion and low inventory. I'd rather lower property taxes for everyone but have everyone pay their fair share.

mell says

Agreed. While I can see the case for never ceding any tax shelter to the government prop13 is an abomination responsible to a large part for the price distortion and low inventory. I'd rather lower property taxes for everyone but have everyone pay their fair share.

Without prop 13 everyones taxes aren't going lower, it's going up for everyone. It'll be pure gentrification, liberal elite will own everything, middle class will lose everything.

There was a reason prop 13 was passed, liberals started raping home owners on taxes so bad, people were losing homes left and right. this government has an insane appetite for spending on friends with benefits.

Anyone that supports prop 13 isn’t a real republican, rather a liberal who isn’t out yet.

BayArea says

Anyone that supports prop 13 isn’t a real republican, rather a liberal who isn’t out yet.

Prop13 was a tax revolt. How's supporting a tax revolt makes one a "liberal"?

MbS says

Prop13 was a tax revolt. How's supporting a tax revolt makes one a "liberal"?

The angle that as long as my tax basis is safe, but screw anyone else's could be argued as liberal. I support prop 13 and would only modify it to allow an increase of up to 3% a year from 2. I would argue that it is conservative to limit the government's ability to tax.

BayArea says

You mean if prop 13 goes, everyone pays their share for police, fire, and roads instead of putting it on the backs of young families?

It just means more money for government pensions. That is the number one priority of the government.

The more you give to the government, more will be wasted.

Malcolm says

I support prop 13 and would only modify it to allow an increase of up to 3% a year from 2.

What would you offer in exchange?

This could only mean better blow jobs at closings.

MbS says

What would you offer in exchange?

Nothing more. Property tax increases are limited to 2% per year, even if homes go up by 20%. The proposition has been widely criticized by Patrick and others for a few reasons, mainly that with the passage of time, there is a disparity between people when they buy their neighboring homes. I balance this with the original premise of prop 13, which is to protect people from wild swings in their taxes because of reckless, speculative buyers. 3% seems like a fair balance to both sides of the issue. There is plenty of waste in government, but schools do cost a lot to maintain, and I'd like to see bonds retired early if possible.

FortWayneIndiana says

Without prop 13 everyones taxes aren't going lower, it's going up for everyone. It'll be pure gentrification, liberal elite will own everything, middle class will lose everything.

That's if you define "middle class" by "people born before a certain date" and "liberal elite" as "young people".

Without Prop13, old people would stop opposing more building, and probably enough people would leave to lower prices (and so taxes).

Malcolm says

I support prop 13 and would only modify it to allow an increase of up to 3% a year from 2.

No no no no no. Lets tax gas instead. That way I don't have to pay. It's only fair.

MegaForce says

The folks in the Bay Area do not qualify as 'middle class'. We are upper middle class or lower rich class compared to the rest of the nation.

Nope, it's BA folks who escape BA for US who instantly join upper middle/lower rich class at the destination.

Strategist says

Malcolm says

I support prop 13 and would only modify it to allow an increase of up to 3% a year from 2.

No no no no no. Lets tax gas instead. That way I don't have to pay. It's only fair.

I drive electric cars, so I’m with you there. High gas taxes seem very fair to me. They cut down on my traffic and my roads are nice and maintained. I also enjoy the fresh landscaping.

Malcolm says

They cut down on my traffic and my roads are nice and maintained. I also enjoy the fresh landscaping.

Where is this paradise with no traffic, smooth roads and fresh landscaping? Not SFBA for sure.

Malcolm says

I drive electric cars, so I’m with you there. High gas taxes seem very fair to me.

No worries: sales tax and elevated registration fee you pay every time you jump from one of these short-lived toys to another is easily the same or more as owners of old gas jalopies are paying in gas taxes. ;)

MegaForce says

Such class warfare on the poor.

I’m sure you recognize sarcasm, but you make a good point. Why isn’t it class warfare when renters want to repeal prop 13, or keep stuffing bonds onto property taxes? When does it become immoral to flip the tables around? If looney liberals want to punish the poor with gasoline taxes, why should I stop them? I love the feeling of privilege knowing I don’t have to pay for it, just like the poor do when they think they are somehow sticking it to the man with a bond measure and then whine when their rent instantly jumps up to cover it. It starts being funny to me.

MbS says

Malcolm says

I drive electric cars, so I’m with you there. High gas taxes seem very fair to me.

No worries: sales tax and elevated registration fee you pay every time you jump from one of these short-lived toys to another is easily the same or more as owners of old gas jalopies are paying in gas taxes. ;)

Touché, but that’s why I lease, and the state generously gives me $2,500 each time for my troubles.

MbS says

Malcolm says

They cut down on my traffic and my roads are nice and maintained. I also enjoy the fresh landscaping.

Where is this paradise with no traffic, smooth roads and fresh landscaping? Not SFBA for sure.

No, definitely not SFBA, ?

But the Realtor's are saying that it is a great time to buy and sell. They would never steer us wrong, would they?

Pooping in San Francisco.

MAGA says

But the Realtor's are saying that it is a great time to buy and sell. They would never steer us wrong, would they?

Realtors are honorable professionals with a fiduciary duty to protect their clients’ interests. They would never steer you wrong. If they tell you that it’s time to buy you better jump or you’ll miss the boat, just like 2006. Make sure to listen to your wife when they gang up on you to make sure, for your own good, that you don’t get a house that is too small. Out of the goodness of their hearts, they’ll convince her that the biggest regret of homebuyers is not getting a big enough house. “You can do this.” God bless the realtors.