“The housing market has a momentum problem,” said Shiller. “We’re seeing a clipping of momentum at this time. It’s hard to identify turning points even in the housing market. It has been going up linearly for six years now, that’s something that can’t continue.” ...
During the Great Recession, home prices fell by as much as 35% in some markets and plummeted at an annual rate of 4%. Some are beginning to wonder if prices will suffer the same fate this time around.
“It could happen but it’s not likely it will be so severe. You have to remember, that the drop in home prices in the financial crisis was the most severe drop in the U.S. market since my data began in 1890,” Shiller said. “I wouldn’t expect anything as severe as the great financial crisis coming on right now. There could be a significant correction of bear market. I’m waiting and seeing now.”
Subprime just became normal, they didn't all of a sudden become prime borrowers. As long as one can refinance a defaulted loan in an appreciating house, things are fine. When they can't, it catches up. It is catching up, there is nowhere to hide when values level out. Then when foreclosures hit, real values are realized by the market.
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