marcus says

kewise many otherwise NOT racist republicans don't seem to have a problem with politicians that pander to racists.

Like Farrakhan with Maxine, Ellison, even Obama?

Braun just took Democrat incumbent Donnelly’s seat in Indiana.

What did 538 say?

Aphroman says

Goran_K says

Braun just took Democrat incumbent Donnelly’s seat in Indiana.

What did 538 say?

Who gives a fuck until Republicans cease their jihadist campaign against our freedoms so we can easily bet five figures on it at very low juice

Otherwise there’s no Skin in The Game, and it doesn’t matter

I make enough money without gambling on elections but I agree it should be legal.

Goran_K says

So is Nate Silver a prophet or a fucking

No, just a good statistician and detail driven analyst.

Funny that a lot of his critics seem to have a rather deep misunderstanding of polls, statistics, and probability.

Even in the couple hours that I've been viewing here, https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner 538's assessment of the probability of democrats taking control of the house has fluctuated a lot.

Even now he's got the republicans at a 1 in 3 chance of holding the house. 1 in 3 events (where the odds are 2:1 against) happen all the time. He's not making predictions, he's doing a running assessment of probability, based on polls that are far from perfect, and at this point on exit polls and partial data as it comes in.


Correction, 2 in 9 now. Dropping fast.

1 in 10 now.

MY prediction of 39 seat gain for democrats could still be on the money !! Woohooo !!

marcus says

Even in the couple hours that I've been viewing here, https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner 538's assessment of the probability of democrats taking control of the house has fluctuated a lot.

After 7PM EST, any changing of the predictive model is BS.

The point is to predict the result in advance, not to adjust during the vote count. Anybody can do that!

Looks like Scott is going to defeat Democrat incumbent Nelson.

What did 538 say?

SEIG! HEIL!

SEIG! HEIL!

SEIG! HEIL!

Wait until a real conservative from Kazakstan is running social security.

Then some libby heads will asplode!

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

The point is to predict the result in advance, not to adjust during the vote count. Anybody can do that!

I see it as a pretty similar process. IT's just that the data from polls (not done by 538), is of lower quality. Desgning sampling methodology so that it represents what happens later in the election is what the polling is all about. 538 doesn't do that. They just analyze the somewhat garbage data coming from the pollsters.

Anybody can do that too. It's just that it seems like nobody does it better than 538.

Aphroman says

Petey Sessions

I think he will lose, and since election will be very close, he might have been sunk by a small number of people voting against his MJ stance

Aphroman says

Goran_K says

What did 538 say?

You should make a better predictive model, if you think you can do better. That’s what a Real American would do, instead of wasting so much time being triggered

Who is triggered? I’m loving that Nelson was unseated. He was a major fag.

Looks like Taylor Swift had zero effect.

Looks like socialism is out of style in Florida.

GOP flips 3 Senate Seats so far: Florida, North Dakota, and Indiana.

Missouri and Arizona look great.

Sheesh, looks like my 2 Senate seat pickup claim was too conservative.

By the way, Dems, what happens after the House votes to begin Impeachment Proceedings?

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

GOP flips 3 Senate Seats so far: Florida, North Dakota, and Indiana.

Missouri and Arizona look great.

Sheesh, looks like my 2 seat pickup claim was too conservative.

By the way, Dems, what happens after the House votes to begin Impeachment Proceedings?

Maxine Waters’ Depends fail?

CovfefeButDeadly says

By the way, Dems, what happens after the House votes to begin Impeachment Proceedings?

The go hold protests in Guam?

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

By the way, Dems, what happens after the House votes to begin Impeachment Proceedings?

I don't know. But I'm sure what ever they do they do won't be a fraction as embarrassing as the countless Benghazi investigations.

When republicans go low, they really go all the way low.

Is Romney Back? Can't we send that old suit to some really shady dry cleaners so it gets sold out the back?

More shitty news: Anti-American Islamist Ihan Omar won Minnesota CD5.

marcus says

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

By the way, Dems, what happens after the House votes to begin Impeachment Proceedings?

I don't know. But I'm sure what ever they do they do won't be a fraction as embarrassing as the countless Benghazi investigations.

When republicans go low, they really go all the way low.

Grab em by the pussy, amirite?

CovfefeButDeadly says

Maxine Waters’ Depends fail?

 
 marcus says

I don't know. But I'm sure what ever they do they do won't be a fraction as embarrassing as the countless Benghazi investigations.

After the House votes to begin the Impeach process, the Senate (NOT the House) judges the President.

Right now it's looking like that will be a 5-person majority Republican Senate.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Right now it's looking like that will be a 5-person majority Republican Senate.

Which is why they will be protesting from their secret headquarters in Guam.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Is Romney Back? Can't we send that old suit to some really shady dry cleaners so it gets sold out the back?

More shitty news: Anti-American Islamist Ihan Omar won Minnesota CD5.

Romney will not matter with the majority we have.

Also, I know Pat.net folks are really fans, but I’m a huge supporter of Senator Cruz and super happy he beat Beto. After all the money the Dems poured into that race too. What an embarrassment.

Beto - Cruz called.

Texas decided it was “Beto” off without him.

Beto - Cruz called.

Texas decided it was “Beto” off without him.

Goran_K says

Beto - Cruz called.

Texas decided it was “Beto” off without him.

Jajajajajajaja

Beto looks like the creepy child molester usher at the children's mass I went to as a kid.

CovfefeButDeadly says

Romney will not matter with the majority we have.

Also, I know Pat.net folks are really fans, but I’m a huge supporter of Senator Cruz and super happy he beat Beto. After all the money the Dems poured into that race too. What an embarrassment.

True.

The other good news is that most of the House Dem Flips were taken from either NeverTrumpers or OpenBorder Neocons, and many were Open Seats.

Aphroman says

Except he’s a Democrat.

Your Democrat looks like a creepy child molester.

Aphroman says

just_dregalicious says

Aphroman says

Except he’s a Democrat.

Your Democrat looks like a creepy child molester.

Not my Democrat. I have no love for Democrats.

HahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahHahahahahahahahah

Crazy eyes wins in New York, this will be a win for the Republicans in the long term.

Stacey Abrams (gap toothed fat queen latifah wannabe) lost her Governor bid in Georgia.

She can get a new job drinking the used grease out of fried chicken fryers at KFC.

Futures retreating a bit as abc calls dems taking control of house. That was expected in the first place so no big retreat.

RC2006 says

Crazy eyes wins in New York, this will be a win for the Republicans in the long term.

HOLE-YEE hahahahahaha!

It's stunning how close underfunded John James is doing against a popular, well-funded, well connected moderate Democrat.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

It's stunning how close underfunded John James is doing against a popular, well-funded, well connected moderate Democrat.

How is that possible? Republicans are racist

Down by 7% with 59% in.

Yes. Stunning ?

PrivilegedtobeWhite says

Republicans are racist

Too many of them are yes, and more so in the south. but we're talking Michigan here.

Against a nobody running for his first office, no money, no media coverage, no help from the National Party because he was considered a long shot.

Unlike Betamale in Texas who received millions upon millions from in and out of state and was the focus of overwhelming national party attention and funds, along with worshipful Media coverage and Celebrity support.

That is stunning.

It tells you Michigan is very much a vulnerable state.

Also, RCP 's employees must have gone home for the night or fell asleep. They still don't have a flip 'em over done race (FL Senate) marked as a GOP Pickup, and Arizona Senate hasn't moved in like half an hour.

Here's one we haven't talked about.

Neoliberal Feinstein vs. Socialist DeLeon

Which do you prefer and why?

I think what we saw tonight is that Republicans didn’t choose good candidates, charismatic candidates, people with something to say. Even with a wind at their backs, they could not inspire enough to change minds. This is sad.

Still, the Republicans needed a wake up call. They can’t keep doing dumb things and win.

The Senate was a product of Kavanaugh. Voters in red states punished their Blue incumbents who sided with the circus.

Quigley says

I think what we saw tonight is that Republicans didn’t choose good candidates, charismatic candidates, people with something to say. Even with a wind at their backs, they could not inspire enough to change minds. This is sad.

Still, the Republicans needed a wake up call. They can’t keep doing dumb things and win.

The Senate was a product of Kavanaugh. Voters in red states punished their Blue incumbents who sided with the circus.

Agreed.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Here's one we haven't talked about.

Neoliberal Feinstein vs. Socialist DeLeon

Which do you prefer and why?

I saw those two assholes on the ballot and just moved on...

BayArea says

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Here's one we haven't talked about.

Neoliberal Feinstein vs. Socialist DeLeon

Which do you prefer and why?

I saw those two assholes on the ballot and just moved on...

lol nice.

I voted for Feinstein. She’s a horrible old hag, but she’s the hag we know vs. the open borders communist we don’t. Bout killed me to have to pick one of those clowns.

Patrick.net used to be a housing crash site... now it’s a place incels, neo-nazis, and trumplickers call home.

Goran_K says

Stacey Abrams (gap toothed fat queen latifah wannabe) lost her Governor bid in Georgia.

She can get a new job drinking the used grease out of fried chicken fryers at KFC.

I woke up relieved that she lost.

She won't concede though. Reminds me of Hillary.

just_dregalicious says

Beto looks like the creepy child molester usher at the children's mass I went to as a kid.

Reality is, Ted Cruz looks far worse.... You gotta admit that one. LOL

Quigley says

I voted for Feinstein. She’s a horrible old hag, but she’s the hag we know vs. the open borders communist we don’t. Bout killed me to have to pick one of those clowns.

Same. Kevin De Leon advocates against US law and some of his own relatives are here illegally. Like he is borderline traitorous.

Aphroman says

Are you okay Bass?

Don’t do anything drastic

Trump Last Month: "I may take on Legal Marijuana next, who knows, we'll see!"

Now will be the we'll see moment and do you know why? Why will Trump take on Legal Marijuana next?

Hint it has nothing to do with Trump's trippie dippy hippie ways. But everything to do with Hills to Die on.

You got a Liberal house now. Good for You! Now just wait until Trump starts making them eat their own Liberal shit.
The stuff the Liberals and Democrats have been promising the masses for years, and fucking everyone up the ass. They leave those issues on the table those issues will always be their goose that lays the Golden egg. The Liberals will desperately need a cause to get all of the young voters out in 2020. Trump's going to bring that issue to ahead in 2019 in a long drawn out ugly process where the House will fight and resist Trump on every turn. While Trump will be using his Bully Pulpit to let the constituency know that Uncle Trump want's to make it rain up in here, but those obstructionist Liberals wont do what they always said they would. Then he will proceed to make them look like fools, assholes, and liars they really are.

The Liberals will sound pathetic trying to make MJ an election issue after resisting Trump's great deals on it.

That's just one way he's going to bait them with their own shit, and destroy them with their own ineptitude, right out in the open in public.

I'm glad they got the house, the Liberals will have no reason to act up like they have for the last two years. They will look foolish acting Trump wont let them do this and Trump wont let them do this. They are going to be pushing their Brown Fagots in you little Daughter's bathroom, while resisting real meaningful legislation. That will go far.

Ocasio-Cortez-Castro-Stalin got elected. Should provide years of entertaining quotes.

Tenpoundbass says

Aphroman says

Are you okay Bass?

Apparently not.

She'll squeeze her breasts and touch herself

Already displacing a man from the job.

Tenpoundbass says

The Liberals will sound pathetic trying to make MJ an election issue after resisting Trump's great deals on it.

Could have sworn I heard Pelosi would be willing to work with Trump.

There's a lot of big hills for the Liberals to die on.
If they try to impeach Trump they will die on that hill.
If they try to impose immigrants down our throats to continue to replace Americans in the home, job and schools they will die on that hill.
If they try continue down a Socialist Commie path they will die on that hill.
If they seek to destroy the economy because "Fuck Trump"

Trump isn't a dumbass, he will counter their nonsense with Nuclear option BIGGIES that will have the Left base (What's left that aren't frothing lunatic Commies) salivating for the House to legislate what Trump is asking for. "Yeah! Do that SHIT!"
But what they will get is more tone death Liberals doing political volleying with no intentions of serving anyone but themselves.

We're going to see a Trump 2.0 that probably much of his hardcore base wont be happy with. But Trump will do what it takes to win. So he will do shit to win over Leftside outliers and the practical fringe. Stuff Liberals have been trying to do for years.


Kids, this will only be two short years of Trump's 8.

Don't sweat the small stuff, unless you want to die on that hill.

Aphroman says

BoomAndBustCycle says

anti_forum

What was it that had to be censored

Just an insult to everyone on the forum. Really. No actual content.

I thought the Senate has 52 for the Red?
We need that extra point, with Mitt Romney Songbird 2.0 in there now.

So, would this be considered a "blue wave?" From what I've read, this is a pretty typical election cycle.

I believe in 2010, Obama lost 60+ seats in the house and 6 in the Senate, and added to that total in 2014.

So, it really doesn't appear that the blue wave materialized DESPITE all the money that the Dem's threw at it.

Republicans gained a few in the Senate, and gave up 30+ house seats.

With Trump being such a divisive figure, that doesn't seem all that bad.

joshuatrio says

So, it really doesn't appear that the blue wave materialized DESPITE all the money that the Dem's threw at it.

And with a record turnout of 114M for a mid-term election. I was thankful they kept the communist out of Texas and Florida. Of course, Minnesota elected a Muslim, but that's what the far left likes.

So, would this be considered a "blue wave?"

Unfortunately, for the House, yes. Not a tsunami, not even a King Tide, but definitely a wave that rolled ashore to soak your towel and change where you sit.

joshuatrio says

So, would this be considered a "blue wave?" From what I've read, this is a pretty typical election cycle.

I believe in 2010, Obama lost 60+ seats in the house and 6 in the Senate, and added to that total in 2014.

Bill Clinton lost 53 seats in his first midterm.

I'll take a bigger majority in the Senate and 2 years of stacking the courts any day to a slim majority in the House. Pelosi will serve as a perfect foil for Trump leading up to the 2020 elections.

Frankly, I think it is pretty amazing that Trump and Republicans did as well as they did despite the crazed nature of the Democrats and all of the built in advantages they have with the lapdog media, academia and Hollywood.

P N Dr Lo R says

And with a record turnout of 114M for a mid-term election.

This is probably the biggest (and under-reported) story of this election. Supposedly the turnout in Florida was huge (or maybe huge for a mid-term??), but the results were still the stereotypical close race.

socal2 says

Frankly, I think it is pretty amazing that Trump and Republicans did as well as they did despite the crazed nature of the Democrats and all of the built in advantages they have with the lapdog media, academia and Hollywood.

That's what I was thinking as well. With all the money and hype from the Dem's, they definitely won some, but the Republicans held the line pretty well considering the circumstances.

Looking at the past with Obama/Clinton's losses, this seemed pretty mild, despite being such a costly election.

Maryland Governor Republican Larry Hogan re-elected by a ~15% margin. This is something that everyone here would have never guessed was even possible (polls had Hogan up by number higher than his actual).

socal2 says

Frankly, I think it is pretty amazing that Trump and Republicans did as well as they did despite the crazed nature of the Democrats and all of the built in advantages they have with the lapdog media, academia and Hollywood.

FactCheck: True.

And now the Communists own the Budget, Taxes, and may have a fight over the refreshing and vibrant Leadership of 78 year olld Nancy Pelosi.

Florida survived a full on Cat 5 Socialismcane.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Florida survived a full on Cat 5 Socialismcane

So did Texas.

I keep wondering why the Media won't call the Florida Senate Race for Scott.

Then I saw footage of Broward and Brenda Snipes digging through ballots today.

They are trying to get Nelson over the top.

Getting Snipes removed by any means necessary and putting Broward (and Miami-Dade) under a microscope at both the State and Federal level is absolutely crucial. It must be DeSantis' top priority before Summer 2020. Now that Felons can vote, that margin of victory is gonna be a lot thinner.

Don't be surprised tomorrow.

Democrats gained on the suburbs lost the rural areas badly . Democrats gained on women and educated folks. Lost on men , more specifically white men

There was a lot of Gerrymanding (Pennsylvania, by their Leftist Supreme Court) and longstanding GOPe retirements (like Ros-Lehtinen).

Democrats won by a hair in most of these. Trump campaigned around the Senate, not the House.

Places like FL27 and CA48 disprove the notion the wealthy only care about tax cuts.

They also like their no-tarriffs to supply their warehouses and bring in their offshored manufactured goods, as well as their abundant cheap slave labor via massive unprecedented immigration (so that the US is 20% foreign born, sky high, totally extreme, next two largest immigration destinations Germany and Russia are below 5%)

Cutting back immigration from absolutely ridiculously extremely ultrahigh like it is today, back to high (5%) is gonna take a lot of education of the ignorant, who think we don't take in anywhere near enough people and should just throw the borders wide open and abolish ICE