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An Unsolicited Warning From Someone Who Just Blew It All
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2019 Jan 21, 9:38am 1,485 views 12 comments
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1
Ceffer
2019 Jan 21, 9:59am
Ceffer
2019 Jan 21, 9:59am
Give me the boring stuff any day. I have a neighbor and a longtime friend who I believe did this to their savings. The neighbor is 70, had a coronary bypass a few years ago, and holds a full time job even though he had a lucrative career because he thought he was a brilliant day trader. My friend was always chasing 'hot tips' and I was surprised a couple of years ago that he told me he was contemplating bankruptcy. I always asked him, "Tell me, you are not trading on margin?" He said, "Well, just a little." before he admitted he took a 250K bath.
The strange thing is, the day trader types often don't think they are gambling or have a gambling problem.
The strange thing is, the day trader types often don't think they are gambling or have a gambling problem.
3
MisdemeanorRebel
2019 Jan 21, 11:21am
MisdemeanorRebel
2019 Jan 21, 11:21am
Play with a few thousand and that's your fun pot for the year.
The rest boring diversified shit.
The rest boring diversified shit.
4
clambo
2019 Jan 21, 11:29am
"Remember greed fucking kills".
This is not exactly correct; I would say greed with bad judgement can kill. (kill is used figuratively here and above)
Greed per se is human nature. It may be bad to have greed, or it may be good to be able to take care of your own needs, depending on the situation.
I like to believe self-interest is good and self-reliance also.
Never "roll the dice" with anything if you can't lose it all on the roll of the dice and not change your standard of living.
This is not exactly correct; I would say greed with bad judgement can kill. (kill is used figuratively here and above)
Greed per se is human nature. It may be bad to have greed, or it may be good to be able to take care of your own needs, depending on the situation.
I like to believe self-interest is good and self-reliance also.
Never "roll the dice" with anything if you can't lose it all on the roll of the dice and not change your standard of living.
5
kt1652
2019 Jan 21, 11:50am
kt1652
2019 Jan 21, 11:50am
Nice lesson, but futile.
“Understand yourself” is good advice. Understand the bell curve is better.
Only in Lake Wobegone can everyone be above average.
“Understand yourself” is good advice. Understand the bell curve is better.
Only in Lake Wobegone can everyone be above average.
7
theoakman
2019 Jan 21, 12:05pm
The people winning in the market year in and year out buying and selling are doing so on inside information. The SEC is the boogieman that's supposed to prevent this. They don't.
8
Patrick
2019 Jan 21, 3:01pm
Patrick
2019 Jan 21, 3:01pm
If you just hold, then insider trading doesn't hurt you much. Maybe a little bit on either end, but compared to years of gains (hopefully) it's not significant.
I just buy and hold dividend-paying stocks, mostly. That works pretty well, better than anything else I can think of with relatively low risk.
I just buy and hold dividend-paying stocks, mostly. That works pretty well, better than anything else I can think of with relatively low risk.
9
🎂
Rin
2019 Jan 21, 6:49pm
Rin
2019 Jan 21, 6:49pm
Kakistocracy says
Ppl, this guy is a typical hack.
At my firm, our first prop trader was an LSE grad, who knew exactly when the shakeouts were occurring. In fact, we planned on detecting 'em, as a part of our overall strategy. Anyways, he quit our place in a few short years & moved onto bigger places and is now retired with two homes in Britain and one in the Caribbean,
Our second was an American, stateside, who knew everything about covering positions during short squeezes. Anyways, he's now a $100M richer & I haven't heard from him in months. I suppose he's bored of ordinary back office types like myself & is probably living on a boat somewhere.
As for the others, well, I'm no longer involved in day to day operations so I can't tell. I do know this ... the good ones always make money.
It was slow and boring, but it worked. Really well. I not only did really well for our clients, but also my own money. It was simple, BUY WHEN YOU HAD MONEY and SELL WHEN YOU NEEDED MONEY. Don't sweat the small details, we're properly diversified to minimize risk (which worked) and we'll catch the ups, of which there are always many.
I used that system for decades, including the first 3 years of our retirement. But it wasn't enough; oh no, I had to get cute. I learned how to trade derivatives; at first it was just simple calls and puts, then exotic spreads. I learned how to trade just simple calls and puts, then exotic spreads. I learned how to trade futures (not exactly difficult) and started placing bigger and bigger bets because, eh, we had plenty of money and I could afford to lose some, no problem.
Ppl, this guy is a typical hack.
At my firm, our first prop trader was an LSE grad, who knew exactly when the shakeouts were occurring. In fact, we planned on detecting 'em, as a part of our overall strategy. Anyways, he quit our place in a few short years & moved onto bigger places and is now retired with two homes in Britain and one in the Caribbean,
Our second was an American, stateside, who knew everything about covering positions during short squeezes. Anyways, he's now a $100M richer & I haven't heard from him in months. I suppose he's bored of ordinary back office types like myself & is probably living on a boat somewhere.
As for the others, well, I'm no longer involved in day to day operations so I can't tell. I do know this ... the good ones always make money.
11
anonymous
2019 Jan 22, 10:45am
Trader says he has ‘no money at risk,’ then promptly loses almost 2,000%
Investing legend Jack Bogle once said that “if you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks.”
He didn’t mention anything about a 2,000% loss though.
That’s where 1R0NYMAN comes in. The anonymous trader/internet legend created a stir on Reddit earlier this month with this absolute corker of a trade .
It’s called a box spread, a four-sided options strategy billed, in theory, as a riskless arbitrage play using call and put options. In this case, it started with a $5,000 “investment” executed through Robinhood, a no-commission trading platform.
Check out The Options Guide’s detailed explanation.
Clearly, 1R0NYMAN figured it was a slam dunk.
“I have not money at risk,” he responded to those questioning his approach in Reddit’s raucous “Wall Street Bets” group. “It literally cannot go tits up.”
Famous last words.
Even one of the group’s moderators pleaded, “DO NOT DO THIS,” pointing out the potential downside. But that didn’t stop 1R0NYMAN.
A few days and some unforeseen twists later, he shared the results:
More: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trader-says-he-has-no-money-at-risk-then-promptly-loses-almost-2000-2019-01-22
Investing legend Jack Bogle once said that “if you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks.”
He didn’t mention anything about a 2,000% loss though.
That’s where 1R0NYMAN comes in. The anonymous trader/internet legend created a stir on Reddit earlier this month with this absolute corker of a trade .
It’s called a box spread, a four-sided options strategy billed, in theory, as a riskless arbitrage play using call and put options. In this case, it started with a $5,000 “investment” executed through Robinhood, a no-commission trading platform.
Check out The Options Guide’s detailed explanation.
Clearly, 1R0NYMAN figured it was a slam dunk.
“I have not money at risk,” he responded to those questioning his approach in Reddit’s raucous “Wall Street Bets” group. “It literally cannot go tits up.”
Famous last words.
Even one of the group’s moderators pleaded, “DO NOT DO THIS,” pointing out the potential downside. But that didn’t stop 1R0NYMAN.
A few days and some unforeseen twists later, he shared the results:
More: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trader-says-he-has-no-money-at-risk-then-promptly-loses-almost-2000-2019-01-22
12
clambo
2019 Jan 23, 7:43am
Boring, slow and steady over a few decades does well. I believe the image assumes an 8% return rate.
It's also fun and exciting to try gambling but I can't handle losing more than $1000; something in my deep subconscious remembers this is a lot of money to throw away.
Boring, slow and steady over a few decades does well. I believe the image assumes an 8% return rate.
It's also fun and exciting to try gambling but I can't handle losing more than $1000; something in my deep subconscious remembers this is a lot of money to throw away.
My apologies.
This is long.
This is boring.
I know these aren't fun.
I don't need/want your pity; I just honestly hope I can save one person from this stupid nightmare.
TL;DR - I finally destroyed my gambling account.
I'd like to believe that I'm a relatively smart fellow. After all, I graduated from the local state university with a 2.03 GPA after failing out once and dropping out another time. I spent the majority of my professional life in compliance, but before that, I was an investment adviser who only dealt in passive, diversified asset-class based mutual fund investing.
It was slow and boring, but it worked. Really well. I not only did really well for our clients, but also my own money. It was simple, BUY WHEN YOU HAD MONEY and SELL WHEN YOU NEEDED MONEY. Don't sweat the small details, we're properly diversified to minimize risk (which worked) and we'll catch the ups, of which there are always many.
I used that system for decades, including the first 3 years of our retirement. But it wasn't enough; oh no, I had to get cute. I learned how to trade derivatives; at first it was just simple calls and puts, then exotic spreads. I learned how to trade just simple calls and puts, then exotic spreads. I learned how to trade futures (not exactly difficult) and started placing bigger and bigger bets because, eh, we had plenty of money and I could afford to lose some, no problem.
As the last 6 years went by, I became more and more confident in my ever-changing trading system(s) with options and futures, despite the fact that there was only 1 year where I turned a profit (+$450k selling call spreads in 2015). Every other year, there was always some excuse.
"Oh well, if I hadn't lost that $350k on toothless cattle futures,we'd have made money." Or, "if we had just not taken the $600k loss we'd have made money." Or, "if we had just not taken the $600k loss after the election, we had a pretty good year!"
Dumb stuff like that.
Friends and family all warned me, I better get out of trading before I blow it all. "I won't," I assured them, "I'm not that stupid."
I was sure of it. And I was wrong.
I had quit day-trading back in November but was still using a swing trading system that damn near never lost (really), until I got completely run over last week. Literally every move I made was wrong, and I managed to completely wipe out my entire gambling account. I want to be clear, we're not broke or anything near it (still get to claim millionaire status), but holy crap did I decimate my account something stupid.
So, I'm here to tell you that the scary stories you hear from elders who quit trading? They're true. Trading is a losing game. It's just gambling.
Most people who claim to be winners just ignore their losses and pretend everything is ok. To be sure, some people really can make a living at it, and good for them. But the odds are massively against you. The system is designed to take your money while you're stressed, guessing, nervous, angry, depressed, or most of all - desperate.
Your money is your money. Your life is your life. I ain't your pappy. You don't owe me anything and I don't owe you anything. But I'm the lucky one. My wife isn't leaving me (she certainly could) and I paid for my house with cash, so I can't lose it as long as I keep paying the taxes.
But do this favor to yourself - ask yourself why you're really doing this. Actually ask yourself what you'll do IF you wake up one day to yet another surprise six-digit loss that you went to sleep thinking was a winner. If you can't deal with the fall-out, get out now while you can. Start a business. Go back to school. Get a job you enjoy. Don't end up like me, or worse, people who didn't still have a small pile of assets after the Big One strikes your account. I'll be alright (I hope).
My gambling days are over (because that account is empty now). My wife swears she's not leaving and that she still loves me. We can always sell this house and move somewhere cheaper if it really comes to that, or, more likely, I'll just start anotherbusiness if necessary. But the stress I've gone through the past week business if necessary. But the stress I've gone through the past week since the disaster struck has been unlike any stress I've had since I was still in business and had to worry about sales drying up (which any good business owner is paranoid about constantly, even if things are great). OddStats will still be around, but now I'm angry.
I'm embarrassed. I'm humiliated. I've hurt myself and others around me and that's painful. Think about it before this is you. Be good to each other and remember that greed fucking kills.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-14/unsolicited-warning-someone-who-just-blew-it
#Trading #Greed #Markets