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Massive Jobs Blowout, over 300k new Jobs in Jan


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2019 Feb 1, 9:03am   3,546 views  48 comments

by MisdemeanorRebel   ➕follow (12)   💰tip   ignore  

Job growth in January shattered expectations, with nonfarm payrolls surging by 304,000, the Labor Department says.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected payrolls to rise by 170,000.
There were revisions. December’s big initially reported gain of 312,000 was knocked all the way down to 222,000, while November’s rose from 176,000 to 196,000.
The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4 percent, a level where it had last been in June, a likely effect of the shutdown, according to the department.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/nonfarm-payrolls-january-2019.html

Remember all those times during the Not-covery when January would be a bloodletting of all the Jobs the BLS claimed weren't seasonal in Oct-Dec? Then revised THOSE all downward to boot?

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1   Goran_K   2019 Feb 1, 9:20am  

Dow back over 25,000.
2   Heraclitusstudent   2019 Feb 1, 11:08am  

MisterLearnToCode says

Massive Jobs Blowout, over 300k new Jobs in Jan

Camella can beat that easy: "Massive blow jobs, 300K in Jan".
3   anonymous   2019 Feb 1, 12:55pm  

Per the usual line of the Obama presidency - what kind of jobs were they ?
4   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Feb 1, 12:57pm  

Kakistocracy says
Per the usual line of the Obama presidency - what kind of jobs were they ?



Glad you asked.

Salaries for college graduate Americans are growing much slower than for Americans who are working in transportation, restaurants, services, construction, and sales, according to federal data.
Average pay grew 3.0 percent in the 12 months up to December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, employees in the broad “management, professional, and related” category gained only 2.5 percent.

But there was a 4.2 percent rise in wages for “sales and related” employees, a 3.7 percent rise for “production, transportation, and material moving” workers, a 3.4 percent rise for “trade, transportation, and utilities” workers, and a 4.1 gain for “leisure and hospitality” workers.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.t05.htm
5   anonymous   2019 Feb 1, 12:58pm  

Salary data is not a definition of full time or part time
6   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Feb 1, 12:59pm  

Kakistocracy says
Salary data is not a definition of full time or part time



It's a sign of demand. Wages aren't rising for blue collar jobs because of goodwill towards men, but because demand is outstripping supply.

One place supply is definitely outstripping demand is for "Woke Journalists", where a correction is finally being felt.
7   anonymous   2019 Feb 1, 1:00pm  

Still not putting out any data about the % of full and part time positions, what sector etc. - tis a nice dance around the question thouigh
8   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Feb 1, 1:00pm  

Kakistocracy says
Still not putting out any data about the % of full and part time positions, what sector etc. - tis a nice dance around the question thouigh



So you think wages are rising, and blue collar wages rising the most, because of a wage fairy?
9   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Feb 1, 1:04pm  

By the way, the shutdown seemed to have little impact on job creation. Guess there's plenty of room for cuts.
10   anonymous   2019 Feb 1, 1:05pm  

Still have not even tried to define the % of full time and part time jobs, what sector etc. As I recall the that was the question du jour every time
a positive jobs number came out from the previous administration.

And in other news - (I try to stay negative, I had a positive thought once or twice over the years but squashed them like a bug before they could multiply)

In a worrying start to the year, major companies laid off 52,988 workers in January, up 20.7% from December and up 18.7% from January a year ago. The data show a mixed trend. Long term, January 2019 numbers were better than for most January stats in the past several years. However, compared to most monthly totals for the past two years, regardless of the month, the figure was weak, according to research firm Challenger Gray & Christmas.

In specific, January’s number is lower than the average of 86,347 cuts announced during the month of January since 1993. However, it is higher than 20 of the past 24 monthly totals.

https://247wallst.com/jobs/2019/01/31/january-layoffs-up-21-to-53000/
11   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Feb 1, 1:12pm  

That's up to you, to disprove the amazing numbers that blew all the predictions away and caused a stock market jump.

Have fun. I congratulate you on being able to find a handful of pieces that break consensus and conform to your narrative of "Disaster Trump".
12   anonymous   2019 Feb 1, 1:15pm  

Still have not been able to define what type of jobs and the % full and part time and in what sector.

Answering the question is starting to look a lot like the promise of 100s of pictures the other day from someone else

Safe to say you have folded on your mission to provide details of the jobs. Just like someone else did no the border wall and someone else did with the pictures.
13   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Feb 1, 1:17pm  

Kakistocracy says
Still have not been able to define what type of jobs and the % full and part time and in what sector.


Well, hop to it.
14   rocketjoe79   2019 Feb 1, 1:18pm  

MisterLearnToCode says
By the way, the shutdown seemed to have little impact on job creation. Guess there's plenty of room for cuts.


Let's start with real Security at airports, and disband TSA. Last cost I head was $7B per year. Follow the Israeli's security practices - they don't mess around.
15   anonymous   2019 Feb 1, 1:19pm  

personal
16   NDrLoR   2019 Feb 1, 2:53pm  

Kakistocracy says
Still not putting out any data about the % of full and part time positions
It doesn't matter. Any job is better than no job.

I'd say the most shocking number next to the 49% who have full time jobs are the 35% who don't have a job and don't want one:

Breaking down employment

Employment status, not seasonally adjusted, among every 500 Americans included in the BLS report, January 2019
In the labor force

248 (49.6%)
Employed full time

52 (10.4%)
Employed part time

14 (2.8%)
Unemployed, want a job, actively looking

10 (2.1%)
Unemployed, want a job, not actively looking

176 (35.1%)
Unemployed, don’t want a job

The BLS has a broader measure of unemployment — the U-6 — which includes people counted in the official jobless rate, those who've tried to find a job in the past year but haven't looked in the past four weeks, and part-time workers who want a full-time job. January’s unadjusted U-6 was 8.8 percent. That’s 4.4 percentage points higher than the unadjusted unemployment rate.
17   Goran_K   2019 Feb 1, 2:59pm  

Kaki, enough with the ad homs (calling someone a cheap folding chair is not considered constructive discussion), also the trolling.

Thanks.
18   anonymous   2019 Feb 1, 3:13pm  

Goran_K says
Kaki, enough with the ad homs (calling someone a cheap folding chair is not considered constructive discussion), also the trolling.


And the fuck you I got the other night from "mostly reader" is okay though - yes ?

Here is the comment...

Comment # 48 mostly reader ignore (0) 2019 Jan 29, 4:40pm ↑ like (1) ↓ dislike (0) quote flag
Kakistocracy says

The commenter from Jersey has been acknowledged with yet another alias.


Wrong, and wrong. And, fuck you. Don't freeze your ass on the way home.

Thread: http://patrick.net/post/1321912?offset=40#comment-1566129


Kindly explain how that works. Especially since the fuck you is still there - this constitutes constructive conversation ?

Thanks.
19   anonymous   2019 Feb 1, 3:15pm  

GM expected to start cutting 4,000 white-collar workers Monday

General Motors is expected to start its next round of white-collar job cuts Monday, but the carmaker apparently has fewer staff reductions left to make than has been anticipated.

In November, GM said it needed to reduce its North American white-collar workforce by about 8,000. About 2,250 salaried workers volunteered to take a buyout, leaving as many as 5,750 workers still to be cut.

But on Friday a GM spokesman said the automaker had trimmed about 1,500 contract jobs, meaning about 4,000 more staff jobs will be cut.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2019/02/01/gm-layoffs-2019-workers/2743506002/

Winning...MAGA...Winning
20   anonymous   2019 Feb 1, 3:23pm  

Goran_K says
also the trolling.


Have you perused the commentary from Mr. Magic ?

I mean if you want to talk trolling and all.

Thanks.
21   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Feb 1, 3:27pm  

Kakistocracy says
General Motors is expected to start its next round of white-collar job cuts Monday, but the carmaker apparently has fewer staff reductions left to make than has been anticipated.


Excellent! They're the morons responsible for bad decisions and blaming it all on the guys who carry out their messed up orders.

Meanwhile Blue Collar wages are up sustained and strong.
22   anonymous   2019 Feb 1, 3:28pm  

Kind of pathetic when the members of the base can't handle one socialist or commie which I have been alleged to be.

Hey, is that an ad hom or trolling ?

Thanks
23   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Feb 1, 3:30pm  

Gov. Northam's campaign son: Ramones: "The KKK aborted my baby away"


Yearbooks haven't been good for Dems lately. From Binge Drink Braggin' Accusers to Blackface/KKK Governors.
24   anonymous   2019 Feb 1, 3:32pm  

MisterLearnToCode says
Meanwhile Blue Collar wages are up sustained and strong.


Not in the rest belt and anything auto related they are not, same for steel despite the startup from idle status here and there on a few mills that will go right back down on the next downturn and then probably stay down for good.
25   MrMagic   2019 Feb 1, 3:38pm  

Kakistocracy says
Here is the comment...

Comment # 48 mostly reader ignore (0) 2019 Jan 29, 4:40pm ↑ like (1) ↓ dislike (0) quote flag
Kakistocracy says

The commenter from Jersey has been acknowledged with yet another alias.


That's because you were wrong again (surprise) with that comment.

If you're having difficulty reading screen names, please let us know, and we'll help you out.
26   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Feb 1, 3:49pm  

Do you think if all the GM Workers get pegged by immense hirsute lesbians, the Car Gods will intervene, wave their magic dildos, and save their jobs?
27   Shaman   2019 Feb 1, 4:19pm  

Goran_K says
Dow back over 25,000


Stock market is performing exactly as I predicted.
29   NDrLoR   2019 Feb 1, 5:09pm  

Kakistocracy says
General Motors
I know in some celestial realm the owners and employees of the independents Studebaker, Nash, Hudson, Packard, et al are looking around, nodding and smiling at each other as the once indomitable GM sees its market share keep falling because they stopped making the best cars in the world.
30   Goran_K   2019 Feb 1, 7:48pm  

Kakistocracy says
Goran_K says
Kaki, enough with the ad homs (calling someone a cheap folding chair is not considered constructive discussion), also the trolling.


And the fuck you I got the other night from "mostly reader" is okay though - yes ?

Here is the comment...

Comment # 48 mostly reader ignore (0) 2019 Jan 29, 4:40pm ↑ like (1) ↓ dislike (0) quote flag
Kakistocracy says

The commenter from Jersey has been acknowledged with yet another alias.


Wrong, and wrong. And, fuck you. Don't freeze your ass on the way home.

Thread: http://patrick.net/post/1321912?offset=40#comment-1566129


Kindly explain how that works. Especially since the fuck you is still there - this constitutes constructive conversation ?

Thanks.


We don’t see everything as mods. If you see something, flag it.
31   FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut   2019 Feb 1, 8:04pm  

MisterLearnToCode says
Gov. Northam's campaign son: Ramones: "The KKK aborted my baby away"


Yearbooks haven't been good for Dems lately. From Binge Drink Braggin' Accusers to Blackface/KKK Governors.


Their worst problem is that instead of owning it, they just apologize, and get eaten in the process.
32   clambo   2019 Feb 2, 7:32am  

More people working=more spending by consumers=more profits for "evil corporations"=stocks keep going up=I make mo' money.

The fact that people don't save is not surprising to me; I've seen it all my life.

I don't care; I see those kids working at McJobs all with an iPhone in their back pocket and I think "kid, you need to upgrade that bitch."
33   anonymous   2019 Feb 2, 8:20am  

P N Dr Lo R says
the once indomitable GM sees its market share keep falling because they stopped making the best cars in the world.


Right about the time each division stopped making their own engines etc. is when the company started to circle the drain. Same with Body by Fisher.

Add to that cladding, and gems like the Cadillac Cimarron and the Pontiac Aztek - killing off brands that should have survived and not supporting their product lines.
34   NDrLoR   2019 Feb 2, 8:30am  

Kakistocracy says
Right about the time each division stopped making their own engines etc. is when the company started to circle the drain. Same with Body by Fisher.
Leeched out all the brand identity. We don't have car people making cars anymore. Where are the modern day equivalents of Bunky Knudsen (Pontiac), John DeLorean (GTO), Bill Mitchell (Riviera), Alfred P. Sloan ("A car for every purse and purpose").
35   anonymous   2019 Feb 2, 8:33am  

Brand identity with GM was really a big thing before they screwed it up, very loyal customers once upon a time.

Right now brand loyalty is disappearing amongst most brands - foreign or domestic
36   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Feb 2, 5:08pm  

ThreeBays says
Shame they have such large error margins.



Not quite as big as the Not-Covery numbers, when the Obama BLS would wait a month or so and knock down a measley 150k jobs to 30k jobs.
37   anonymous   2019 Mar 8, 11:19am  

Massive Miss on Jobs - Weakest Jobs Growth Since 2017

U.S. Payrolls Shock Suggests Dawn of a Long-Forecast Slowdown, Weakest job growth since 2017 missed all economist estimates and wage gains signal tighter labor market still benefits workers

The U.S. labor market may not be as weak as February’s payrolls number suggested, but the report provides a reality check that a long-forecast slowdown is arriving.

Employers added 20,000 jobs during the month, the fewest since September 2017, missing all economist estimates and bucking a recent trend of strong February readings. Analysts said the unexpectedly low figure doesn’t mean conditions rapidly deteriorated -- citing weather effects and payback from outsize gains in prior months -- but they pointed to the likelihood of a moderation in job gains this year as economic growth cools.



“I don’t think you want to say that 20,000 is the new trend, but the trend probably is shifting down,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. “It’s hard to know with precision how much of a downshift there will be. We’ll see job growth better than this, but not as good as we saw last year.”

U.S. stocks dropped along with the dollar, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index falling for a fifth day, while benchmark Treasury yields were steady as markets weighed the jobs report with the risk of greater inflation pressures.

While the payroll gains disappointed, the report’s other highlights were largely positive: the unemployment rate declined by more than forecast and hourly wages rose from a year earlier at the fastest pace since 2009, figures that bode well for consumer spending. Some industries hit hard in February are typically closely tied to weather patterns, including construction and retail, while the lingering effects of the partial government shutdown may have created some volatility.

“There was always going to be noise in this as a result of the shutdown,” Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG LLP, said on Bloomberg Television.

Policy makers and economists are likely to wait for several months of weak hiring before concluding there’s cause for concern in the labor market. The figures also validate the Federal Reserve’s January decision to pause interest-rate hikes while awaiting signs of a more-persistent acceleration in inflation.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

“The fact that hiring was weak, but the unemployment rate declined and jobless claims have not materially increased, signals that labor market conditions are not materially deteriorating.

-- Carl Riccadonna, Yelena Shulyatyeva and Tim Mahedy, economists

“The Fed just picked a really good time to go into hibernation, so they really don’t have to deal with any of this,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC.

A separate government report Friday showed new-home construction rebounded in January by more than expected as building permits hit a nine-month high, indicating the housing market is stabilizing amid lower mortgage rates.

Economists were already expecting monthly payroll gains to average about 170,000 this year, following a 223,000 pace in 2018 that was driven by corporate investment and consumer demand fueled by tax cuts. The effects of fiscal stimulus, including a boost in government spending, are expected to fade while President Donald Trump’s trade war with China remains an overhang on businesses.

The report also showed signs that companies are paying up for employees in a tight market. Average hourly earnings for private workers rose 0.4 percent from the prior month, topping estimates, following a 0.1 percent gain. That indicates the economy may get a lift from wage increases at companies including Amazon Inc. along with Costco Wholesale Corp., which said Thursday it’s boosting starting wages.

Another positive highlight: The U-6, or underemployment rate, plunged to 7.3 percent, the lowest since 2001, from 8.1 percent. This includes part-time workers who want a full-time job and those less active in seeking work.

“There’s no reason to panic,” Ryan Sweet, head of monetary policy research at Moody’s Analytics Inc. “You average the couple months together and the jobs market is still doing well. Job growth will slow this year, as the economy begins to moderate. But 20,000 jobs is not what we’re going to be creating month-in and month-out.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-08/u-s-payroll-gains-plunge-to-20-000-while-wages-top-estimates?srnd=premium

Do not panic - buy the dip, go all in - buy that new house, car, take that expensive vacation - do not panic while Wall Street looks for clean underwear for all.
38   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Mar 8, 11:23am  

First, according to the chart it looks rather cyclical. Every 15-16 months there's a weak month.
Second, we're near record unemployment, so this is not a surprise. The employment crunch is finally here.
Third, as the article states, the U-6 fell almost a full point, so a good chunk is probably part timers becoming full timers rather than creating new positions.
Fourth, wages appreciated very nicely, 3.4% Yoy, beating expectations. Fed, STFU and leave things alone.
39   anonymous   2019 Mar 8, 11:29am  

MLTC - know of any deals on clean underwear right now? I suspect there are a lot of people going to be looking for some really quickly
40   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Mar 8, 11:32am  

Why? The U-6 improved dramatically, wages are rising faster than CPI by almost two full points.

Even the report on robots you posted yesterday only firms up the trend against this one outlying data point.

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