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Houston homebuilding market flattens

The market for new homes in Houston is expected to be flat for the next couple of years amid a tight supply of lots, a local housing analyst said Thursday.

“It’s not particularly due to a lack of market demand, but wholly due to a lack of available places to build these homes,” Lawrence Dean, Houston regional director of residential real estate data firm Metrostudy, told builders at a quarterly housing market briefing at a conference center in west Houston. “We broadly characterize what we expect to see in the next couple of years as bouncing around at the top of what may be top of this cycle in Houston.”

After two years of annual increases in starts, uncertainty in the housing market crept in last year as interest rates began to rise. Yet the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is now 4.41 percent, the lowest it’s been in 10 months, according to a weekly survey by Freddie Mac.

“Things seemed a little dicey last quarter. Everybody got cautious, but it never really got bad,” said Kenneth Williams, owner of Colina Homes, which built 320 homes in the Houston area last year at an average price of $235,000.

Recent and projected job growth bodes well for Houston builders, Dean said. Houston employers created more than 100,000 jobs last year, according to estimates, and while some economists are expecting that number to be revised downward by as much as 25,000 jobs, what’s left is still strong.

“We’re continuing to see those jobs added in sectors that help us sell new homes,” Dean said, citing new positions in professional and business services, construction and manufacturing.

Builders started 30,146 homes last year, up 10.4 percent from 2017, solidifying this area’s ongoing position as the second-highest volume new-home market in the country. Buyers closed on nearly 28,000 new homes in 2018.

The west and southwest parts of the Houston region, including Katy and the Richmond/Rosenberg area, continue to be the highest market volume areas, while lot availability remains constrained

That’s the case areawide. Developers added fewer than 28,000 new lots to their inventories in 2018, some 2,000 less than the number of homes started. Based on historical observations, Dean said, that number should be reversed to have a healthier supply of lots.

Last year’s median price for a new home was $300,000, with homes priced in the $200,000 to $400,000 range making up 71 percent of starts last year. Within that range, homes priced between $200,000 to $249,000 make up the biggest piece.

As that market gets more competitive, Dean said more builders are incorporating new designs into their homes to help them stand out.

“You can actually get shiplap as option,” he said.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Houston-homebuilding-market-flattens-13599442.php

Houston, Texas Housing Market Forecast 2019: A Good Year for Buyers?

Recent housing market forecasts for the Houston, Texas area predict that home prices will continue rising in 2019 as they did in 2018, but possibly at a slower pace.

Given the current supply-and-demand situation in the Houston real estate market, it would not be surprising to see the median home value rise between 4% and 6% between now and January 2020.

Houston Housing Market Forecast for 2019

Home prices in Houston rose by around 7% over the past year, according to data compiled by Zillow. Looking forward, their research team predicts that house values will continue rising through 2019 and into 2020 — but at a slower pace than the past year.

In January 2019 the group wrote:

“Houston home values have gone up 7.0% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 4.4% within the next year.”

Other housing market forecasts for Houston, Texas have made similar predictions.

This mirrors the overall trends and projections for the nation as a whole. In many cities across the country, economists and analysts expect home prices to continue climbing through 2019 and into 2020. But the year-over-year gains will likely be smaller than those we’ve seen over the past couple of years.

Average Home Price Rises Above $300,000

According to a January 2019 report from the Houston Association of REALTORS® (HAR), the average home price in Houston rose to $306,314 in December 2018. That was an increase of 4.7% from a year earlier.

The median price for a single-family home rose 3.4% to land at $240,000 in December. That was the highest median price ever for a December, according to HAR. (The median is the midpoint, which means half of all homes sold for more than $240,000, while the other half sold for less than that amount.)

Housing Inventory Still Limited in Most Areas

Real estate market predictions for Houston, Texas suggest that home prices will likely continue to rise during 2019. Supply is a big part of this outlook. In short, the Houston housing scene is still experiencing a shortage of inventory relative to the demand from buyers in the market.

At the end of 2018, there was roughly a 3.6-month supply of homes for sale in Houston. Many economists say that a “balanced” real estate market has a 5- to 6-month supply of homes for sale at a given time. So Houston is still a bit tight, at least when it comes to inventory.

But it’s not as tight as the other major metro areas in Texas. At the start of 2019, Austin, Dallas and San Antonio all had less housing market supply than Houston did during that same period.

What all of these Texas housing markets have in common is that demand for homes currently exceeds the available supply — and that is putting upward pressure on prices.

Related: Dallas housing market keeps rising

Strong Job Market Helping Buyers

Local economies and housing markets go hand in hand. When employment levels rise, we tend to see an uptick in home purchases. After all, buyers need steady income to make a purchase in the first place.

And there’s good news on this front as well.

The unemployment rate for the Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown metro area was down to 3.8% at the end of 2018. That’s a big improvement, especially when you consider that it rose to 8.7% in 2010 following the Great Recession.

In addition to luring new residents into the area, a strong job market gives buyers the confidence and financial means to make a home purchase. This is partly why the city is getting mostly positive real estate market forecasts and predictions for 2019.

Houston’s population has risen gradually over the past decade, and is now up to around 2.3 million. That’s within the city itself. The broader metro area now has a population north of 6 million. Population growth increases the demand for housing on both the rental and purchase side.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy in Houston?

With forecasts suggesting the Houston real estate market will continue to climb, 2019 could be a good time to buy a home in the area.

In fact, a sense of urgency might be warranted here. If house value do continue rising, those who put off their purchases until later this year could end up paying more. Especially if mortgage rates climb.

Here are some other reasons why 2019 could be a good year to buy a home in Houston, Texas:

•Low mortgage rates: As of late January 2019, the average rate for a 30-year mortgage rate was down to 4.45%. That was its lowest level since April of 2018. Home buyers in Houston can still take advantage of these low rates — at least for a while. They’re expected to rise gradually later in 2019.

•An appreciating asset: With home prices in the Houston area expected to continue climbing, buyers could put themselves on the road to equity. Granted, no one can predict future economic conditions with complete accuracy. But the general consensus among forecasters is that the Houston housing market will see rising home values for the foreseeable future.

•Jobs: We talked above the drop in unemployment across the Houston metro area. This puts local home buyers in a better position to make a purchase (and keep up with their mortgage payments).

Overall 2019 could be a good year to buy a home in Houston, Texas. Of course, there are many other factors a person should consider before making such a large investment. But from a market perspective, conditions appear to be favorable for home buyers in the area.

http://www.metrodepth.com/houston-texas-housing-forecast-good-year/

Raleigh, NC Housing Forecast Calls for Another ‘Average’ Year in 2019

Recent forecasts and predictions for the Raleigh, North Carolina housing market suggest that home prices will continue rising through the end of 2018 and into 2019.

Prices are expected to rise at a more or less average pace between now and summer of 2019. The Raleigh real estate market is currently experiencing a bit of a supply shortage, which is partly why home prices are climbing in the region.

Positive Forecast for Raleigh Housing Market Through 2019

In August, the housing research team at Zillow issued an updated forecast for the Raleigh, North Carolina real estate market. They predicted that the city’s median home value would rise by around 3.4% over the next 12 months. That projection extends into the summer of 2019.

As of July 2018, the median home price in Raleigh was around $262,000. Prices rose by around 5% to 6% over the previous year, according to Zillow.

Durham and Chapel Hill — the other two parts of North Carolina’s “Research Triangle” — received similar home price forecasts for the next year. In all three housing markets, the median house value is expected to climb by approximately 3% to 3.5% from August 2018 to August 2019.

The company’s forecast for the Raleigh housing market calls for additional but smaller price gains over the next year or so. In fact, their prediction for a 3.4% increase roughly matches the average annual home-price appreciation for the U.S. going back several decades.

(The double-digit gains seen in many cities following the housing market crash were an anomaly. Historically, home values in the U.S. tend to rise by around 3% to 5% annually.)

So in the regard, you could say that Raleigh has a fairly “normal” or average real estate market forecast for 2019.

The one thing that’s not normal is the inventory situation. Like many cities across the country, Raleigh’s real estate market is currently experiencing a low level of supply. This forces buyers to compete for limited inventory.

Low Level of Supply Is Driving Competition

Like many real estate markets across the country, Raleigh has a low level of supply right now (relative to the number of buyers who are actively seeking a home).

As of June 2018, the local housing market had about a two-month supply of homes for sale. Five to six months is considered to be a “balanced” real estate market. So the supply and demand situation in Raleigh still favors sellers over buyers. There aren’t enough homes for sale to satisfy the current level of demand, and that’s putting upward pressure on house prices.

Inventory is particularly tight at the lower end of the pricing spectrum, where first-time buyers tend to shop for “starter” homes.

Marti Hampton, a local real estate broker, recently told the Triangle Business Journal: “Our inventory is disappearing from the bottom up.” The bottom, in this context, refers to lower-priced homes.

In June 2018, homes listed for sale in Raleigh spent a median of 42 days on the market. That indicates a fairly competitive market. It’s not the “fastest-moving” real estate market in the country — that award goes to western markets like Seattle, Denver and San Francisco. Still, the latest real estate reports and data point to a fairly competitive housing market in Raleigh.

Home buyers who enter the real estate market in 2018 or 2019 will want to give themselves plenty of time to find a suitable property. And they should be prepared for competition from other buyers.

http://www.metrodepth.com/raleigh-forecast-another-average-year/

Atlanta Real Estate Market Predictions for 2019: A Slowdown Ahead?

Update: This article was updated in January 2019 with the latest data.

Welcome to the MetroDepth’s Atlanta Housing Market Outlook for 2019. This report was created to give home buyers, investors, and real estate agents some idea of what to expect in 2019, in terms of local housing trends.

To create this report, our team spent many hours reviewing current real estate trends in the Atlanta area. We’ve analyzed home prices, sales activity, economic factors, population trends and more.

This in-depth research allows us to offer a generalized forecast about what might happen in the months ahead. We recommend that you use this information as part of a broader research strategy, so you can make well-informed decisions regarding a home purchase.

Overview: Atlanta Housing Market Forecast for 2019

Home sales in the Atlanta area declined toward the end of 2018, which suggests a softening of demand among buyers. But a combination of population growth and somewhat limited inventory will help sustain housing demand in 2019, and will likely lead to additional home-price gains throughout the year.

Forecasts from multiple sources predict that home prices in the Atlanta area will continue to rise throughout 2019, though probably at a slower pace than the previous couple of years.

Given the current supply and demand situation in the area, it would not be surprising to see the median home price in Atlanta rise somewhere between 5% and 8% during 2019. The level of appreciation will vary from one area to the next, largely due to differences in supply level.

Overall, 2019 could be a good year to buy a home in Atlanta. Housing inventory rose during 2018, so home buyers should have more properties to choose from in 2019. And mortgage rates are still at historically low levels.

While mortgage rates declined at the end of 2018, they are expected to turn north during the first part of 2019. This, combined with the prospect of rising home prices, could create a sense of urgency among buyers. If the latest home price and mortgage rate forecasts turn out to be accurate, those buyers who postpone their purchases until later in 2019 could end up paying more.

Home Prices Past, Present and Possible Future

Home prices in Atlanta rose steadily over the last couple of years, outpacing the national average. This was largely the result of a lopsided supply and demand situation. In short, there was a limited number of homes for sale, but plenty of buyers and investors in the market. This put upward pressure on home prices and led to double-digit gains during 2018.

The chart below (courtesy of Zillow) shows home-price trends in Atlanta going back ten years or so. You can clearly see how property values in the area have risen steadily since “bottoming out” in 2012. You can also see the company’s housing market forecast for Atlanta through 2019 and into 2010 (the green shaded area).



According to Zillow, the median home value in Atlanta was around $256,000 at the start of 2019. That was a gain of more than 14% from the same time a year earlier. By comparison, home prices nationwide rose by an average of 7.7% during that same 12-month period.

During 2018, Atlanta outperformed many other real estate markets across the country, in terms of home-price appreciation. That trend could continue in 2019 as well.

At the start of 2019, the research team at Zillow was predicting that the median home value in Atlanta would rise by around 7.6% over the next 12 months. In contrast, they were predicting that home prices nationwide would rise by 6.4% during that period. So while Atlanta is expected to see a slower rate of appreciation in 2019, it could still be one of the top-performing markets among the major metros.

We expect to see something of a shift during 2019. Inventory has been on the rise lately, giving buyers more options to choose from, while easing competition at the same time. In previous years, Atlanta was more of a seller’s market due to constrained inventory and soaring demand. But this began to change during 2018.

In 2019, the Atlanta real estate market could shift more into “mutual” territory, or even become a soft buyer’s market. All in all, it could be a good year for home buyers across the metro area.

And speaking of inventory, let’s move on to take a closer look at the supply and demand situation. These are two important factors that could shape Atlanta’s housing market outlook through 2019 and into 2020.

Supply and Demand

One of the most notable changes in Atlanta’s real estate market is inventory. Like most major cities across the country, Atlanta suffered from a shortage of homes for sale over the past few years. But that was beginning to change toward the end of 2018. In 2019, buyers should have more properties to choose from (compared to those who purchased homes during 2017 or 2008).

During the summer of 2018, Atlanta had approximately a 2.5-month supply of homes for sale. (Notice the decimal: that’s two and a half months.) This is a theoretical measurement used to track inventory levels over time. In this case, it means that it would take about two and half months to sell all homes currently listed for sale, if no new properties came onto the market in the interim.

According to economists, a 5- or 6-month supply of homes is considered to be a “balanced” real estate market. So back in the summer of 2018, Atlanta was looking like a seller’s market in terms of inventory.

By December 2018, however, the local housing market inventory was up to about a 4.5-month supply. The Atlanta REALTORS® Association mentioned this increase in supply in their “Market Brief” report toward the end of 2018. They reported that “Atlanta area housing inventory totaled 14,455 units in November, an increase of 10.2% from November 2017.”

The bottom line to all of this is that there will be more homes listed for sale at the start of 2019 than there were during 2017 and (most of) 2018.

This is a trend that’s happening in a lot of the major real estate markets across the country, and it will likely have an impact on home-price appreciation. If Atlanta sees a better balance between supply and demand in 2019 (which is what we expect to happen), it could lead to smaller home-price gains in the future.

From a broad economic standpoint, this might actually be a good thing. Atlanta – like many other large metro areas across country – experienced an unusually high level of home-price appreciation from 2016 to 2018.

Such rapid gains can lead to affordability issues for many home buyers in the area. When home prices rise much faster than income and wages, it becomes harder and harder for a “typical” buyer to make a purchase.

Fortunately, the Atlanta housing market hasn’t suffered from the kinds of affordability problems seen in places like Seattle and San Francisco. And a slowdown in home-price appreciation during 2019 could help prevent such conditions from developing. Atlanta is one of many real estate markets across the country that could actually benefit from a cooling trend.

With that being said, we expect that this real estate market will be “warmer” than the nation as a whole during 2019.

Price Reductions More Common These Days

In 2019, home buyers in Atlanta could see more “price reduced” signs while house hunting. Slowing sales in the area have motivated sellers to be more flexible when setting their initial list prices, and when negotiating with buyers.

In 2018, the national real estate brokerage Redfin reported that the number of homes with a price reduction had increased steadily. They singled out Atlanta in particular, as having one of the biggest increases in real estate price drops:

“Las Vegas (+12.3 points to 28.1%), San Jose (+10.7 pts to 25.7%), Seattle (+10.1 pts to 37.1%), and Atlanta (+9.0 pts to 27.9%) were among the markets that posted the biggest year-over-year increases in the share of homes with price drops.”

This is a positive trend for home buyers in Atlanta. Those who plan to purchase a home in 2019 could have more negotiating leverage, when compared to those who purchased during 2017 and 2018.

Population and Employment Trends

You can’t talk about supply and demand within the housing market without touching on population growth. And Atlanta’s population trend over the last few years can be summed up with two words: gradual growth.

Atlanta’s population has grown gradually over the last few years. This brings more demand into the local real estate market, on both the rental and purchase side. As of 2017 (when the last measurement was taken) the city of Atlanta had a population of around 486,290. The broader metro area had a population of around 5.8 million during that year.

In April of that year, the Atlanta Journal Constitution wrote:


“Thousands of people are moving to metro Atlanta from around the country, increasing the region’s population to nearly 5.8 million, according to the U.S. Census. Metro Atlanta gained the fourth-most residents in the nation last year, with 90,650 additional people making the area their home.”

This growth trend contributes to demand within the local housing market, and is partly why home prices have risen steadily over the past few years. While housing inventory appears to be on the rise in Atlanta, demand could rise along with it (to some extent). As a result, we expect to see continued home-price appreciation for most parts of the metro area during 2019.

Employment is another important consideration for home buyers. This is true for investors as well as “regular” buyers who plan to occupy the homes they purchase. In short, a strong local job market gives buyers the financial means to purchase a home, and to keep up with their mortgage payments.

And there’s good news here as well. The Atlanta area experienced job growth during 2018, outpacing the national average during some months. The unemployment rate for this metro area was around 3.4% at the start of 2019. That’s down from a post-recession high of around 10% back in 2011.

Current economic and labor conditions within the Atlanta metro area are favorable and will likely help fuel housing demand throughout 2019. This is partly what accounts for the (mostly) positive real estate market forecasts for Atlanta.

Will 2019 Be a Good Time to Buy in Atlanta?

Will 2019 be a good time to buy a home in Atlanta?

That’s the big question a lot of investors, home buyers, and real estate agents are asking. This is a difficult question to answer across the board, because every home-buying situation is different. There are a lot of personal and financial considerations that must be taken into account.

But from a market standpoint, 2019 could be a great year to buy a home in Atlanta. Given the current supply and demand situation, additional home-price gains are likely for this real estate market. That would put new homeowners on a path to building equity.

Home buyers who need to use a mortgage loan could also take advantage of historically low mortgage rates. At the start of 2019, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage loan was 4.55% (down from a high of nearly 5% during November 2018). That’s based on the weekly industry survey conducted by Freddie Mac.

But experts from both Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association have predicted that mortgage rates could gradually rise during 2019. That’s not surprising when you look at the current state of economic growth, Federal Reserve policy changes, and other contributing factors.

For Atlanta-area home buyers, a sense of urgency might be warranted. It seems likely that home prices in Atlanta will continue to move north – at least in most parts of the area. Mortgage rates could inch upward as well. As a result, those buyers who stay “on the fence” for a while could encounter higher costs down the road.

Recap: Atlanta Home Prices

We’ve covered a lot of predictions, trends and other information in our real estate market forecast for Atlanta, Georgia. Here’s a quick recap of some of the key points:

•The median home value in Atlanta was around $255,000 at the start of 2019. The median sales price (a different metric) was closer to $280,000 at that time.

•Home prices in Atlanta rose by double digits in 2018, according to Zillow, posting bigger gains than the national average.

•Home-price appreciation appeared to be slowing a bit at the start of 2019, but prices will likely continue moving north throughout the year.

•We expect to see the median home price in Atlanta rise between 5% and 8% during 2019. But that’s just an educated guess.

Recap: Housing Supply & Demand

•Housing inventory within the Atlanta real estate market rose during 2018, as more new listings came onto the market.

•Home buyers who enter the market in 2019 should have more properties to choose from.

•Growing inventory is one of the reasons why home prices are rising more slowly now than in previous years.

•Price reductions are more common, partly due to supply growth.

•In 2019, home buyers could have more leverage than in recent years.

•Atlanta is starting to shift from a strong seller’s market toward more neutral territory. It could even become a buyer’s market by 2020.

http://www.metrodepth.com/atlanta-predictions-a-slowdown-ahead/

Las Vegas Housing Outlook: Big Home-Price Gains in 2019 and 2020?

Welcome to the Home Buying Institute’s Las Vegas Housing Market Outlook for 2019 to 2020. This report was created to give home buyers, investors, and real estate agents some idea of what to expect in 2019, in terms of local housing trends. (See disclaimers below.)

Las Vegas Housing Market ‘Poised to Rule’ in 2019

In January, realtor.com® included Las Vegas in its list of “10 Surprising Housing Markets Poised to Rule in 2019.” To come up with their list (which also included Phoenix, Miami and Boston), the group’s research team looked at the number of sales of existing homes and their prices, along with the amount of new home construction in the 100 largest metro areas in the country.

They analyzed “the local economies of each area, along with population trends, unemployment rates, median household incomes, and other factors.”

Based on their analysis, the group stated that Las Vegas is one of several real estate markets where both the number of home sales and prices are expected to jump in 2019, bucking the national slowdown trend.

A couple of points about this ranking:

We also forecast that the Las Vegas real estate market will outperform the nation as a whole in 2019, in terms of home-price appreciation. But there’s an important trend that was left out of this particular study. The Las Vegas housing market is indeed cooling down. There’s more inventory available today, and that will likely lead to smaller home-price gains in 2019 than what we saw in 2018.


With that being said, Las Vegas is still a strong and active real estate market. And it will likely remain that way for the foreseeable future. We expect home prices in this market to rise more than the national average in 2019. Given the current supply-and-demand situation in the area, it would not be surprising to see the median home value in Las Vegas climb somewhere between 6% and 8% during 2019.

Home Prices Past, Present and (Possible) Future

Home prices in Las Vegas rose steadily over the last few years, outpacing the national average. (Of course, prices in this market declined harder and faster than the nation as a whole during the last housing crash, and that certainly plays a role in the rapid rise we are seeing today.) The difference is that the current run-up in prices is a bit more sustainable, being driven more by supply and demand instead of rampant speculation.

As of January 2019, the median home value in Las Vegas was around $277,000.

Home prices in Las Vegas have more than doubled from the low-water market set in 2012, but they still haven’t reached the peak set during the previous housing boom. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, either. The price peak reached back in the 2000s was the result of an unsustainable bubble. So we should hope things are different this time around.

During 2018, the median home value in Las Vegas rose by around 14% according to Zillow. That was nearly double the national rate of appreciation during that same 12-month period.

The chart below shows the median home value in Las Vegas over the past ten years, according to Zillow. As you can see, prices have risen steadily over the past few years. You can also see Zillow’s positive forecast for the Las Vegas housing market through 2019 (shown in the green shaded area).



cooling trend might actually be beneficial for Las Vegas. Back in May of 2018, Fitch Ratings ranked Las Vegas as being the most overvalued real estate market in the country. (Fitch is one of the “big three” ratings agencies, along with S&P and Moody’s.)

Forbes covered this story back in May. As Samantha Sharf wrote:


“Home prices in Las Vegas have overshot economic fundamentals, says Fitch Ratings Managing Director Grant Bailey. There are bright spots in the local economy—the population is increasing swiftly, and the price to rent a place to live isn’t increasing nearly as fast as to buy one. Those highlights, however, are not enough to support 11% growth in the Case Shiller Home Price Index for the city or to save the gamblers’ paradise from the top spot on the latest Fitch ranking … of the most overvalued housing markets in America.”

At the end of 2018, the property analytics company CoreLogic also reported that the Las Vegas real estate market was overvalued, based on its analysis. So a slowdown in price growth might be a good thing at this point.


Housing Inventory on the Rise

There’s good news for home buyers who are planning to enter the Las Vegas housing market in 2019. Real estate inventory (i.e., the number of homes listed for sale) has increased over the past few months.

This means that buyers who make a purchase in 2019 could have more properties to choose from — and maybe a bit less competition as well. Some forecasts suggest that housing inventory in Las Vegas could continue to grow throughout the year.

Inventory in Las Vegas “bottomed out” at around 1.9 months in July. It then rebounded to around 3.7 months at the end of 2018.

According to economists, a 5- or 6-month supply of homes is considered to be a “balanced” real estate market. So back in the summer of 2018, Las Vegas was looking like a seller’s market in terms of inventory. But it’s beginning to shift more toward “neutral” territory.

The growth in for-sale inventory became apparent at the end of 2018. According to the Greater Las Vegas Association of REALTORS®, about 10,000 single-family homes were on the market at the end of November 2018. About 7,000 of them hadn’t had a single offer yet. That marked a 54% increase in inventory from a year earlier.

The bottom line to all of this is that there were more homes listed for sale at the start of 2019 than there were during 2017 and (most of) 2018.


Population Growth Increases Demand for Homes

You can’t talk about Las Vegas housing market forecasts and trends without looking at the population. It’s an important factor on the demand side of the equation. And the population in Las Vegas can be summed up with two words: gradual growth.

The state of Nevada’s population rose above 3 million last year. In December, The U.S. Census Bureau reported that Nevada’s population increased by almost 62,000 people (or about 2.1 percent) between July 2017 and July 2018.

In Las Vegas itself, the population was around 631,676 in 2018. That was about 10% higher than in 2010. So there has been steady growth in Las Vegas, as well as in the state of Nevada as a whole.

This kind of trend increases demand for housing, on both the rental and purchase side. It also helps to sustain home prices over time.

A Stronger Job Market

Employment is another important consideration for home buyers. This is true for investors as well as “regular” buyers who plan to occupy the homes they purchase. In short, a strong local job market gives buyers the financial means to purchase a home, and to keep up with their mortgage payments.

And there’s good news here as well. While Las Vegas’s unemployment rate is still higher than the national average (as of January 2019), it has improved steadily since the post-recession years.

The chart below is based on data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The gray shaded area that starts around 2008 indicates the country’s recession. As you can see, the unemployment rate in the Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise metro area skyrocketed from 2009 to 2010. But starting in 2011, it began to steadily decline as the local economy gained jobs.



http://www.homebuyinginstitute.com/news/las-vegas-outlook-big-gains-ahead/

Housing Forecasts for the cities below at this link: http://www.homebuyinginstitute.com/news/

Orlando, Florida One of the Hottest Housing Markets in 2019

Miami, Florida Housing Market Outlook 2019: Prices Keep Climbing

Dallas, Texas Housing Market Forecast: One of the ‘Hottest’ in 2019?

Phoenix Housing Forecast for 2019: A More Modest Year Ahead?

Lakeland, Florida: The Hottest Housing Market in 2019?

2019 North Carolina Housing And Real Estate Market Predictions

https://www.housingpredictor.com/north-carolina-housing-market/

2019 Massachusetts Housing Market And Real Estate Predictions

https://www.housingpredictor.com/2019-massachusetts-housing-market/

2019 Florida Housing Market And Real Estate Predictions

https://www.housingpredictor.com/2019-florida-housing-market/

Vermont Housing Market And Real Estate Predictions For 2019

https://www.housingpredictor.com/vermont-housing-market/

Housing Market Outlook for 2019 2020

While the latest housing market stats show plunging home sales, the US housing market is looking ready to jump into higher gear this spring and summer. There won’t be a housing market crash, but listings are projected to keep growing through February and March.

As prices fall, we’ll see buyers compete and begin the sales recovery. S&P CoreLogic predicts home prices will rise 5% in the next 9 months.

While political turmoil, trade wars, and Fed chair folly may be scaring buyers (credit inquiries a well down in February), the US economy is predicted to continue on its upward path (GDP). A relatively good jobs report, high GDP growth, and okay stock market paint an optimistic picture for home buyers. Positive trade talks with China currently happening shouldn’t dampen that picture.

A realistic market forecast is that after a temporary lull this winter and early spring, we could sales begin to pick up again. Of recent, the Los Angeles, Atlanta, Tampa Sarasota, San Francisco, San Diego, New York, Boston, Seattle, Houston, Miami and Chicago housing markets have been quiet.

Will the big markets in Florida and California bloom or will the smaller cities continue to draw workers, construction and home purchases? At this point, both look possible.

This new update and projections for the 2019, 2020 US housing market offers key facts, data, perspective, predictions, price factors, expert opinion and forecasted trends from top sources such as NAR, Trulia, Freddie Mac, Zillow, Case Shiller, Trading Economics, and more.

Although worries of a housing crash persist, a housing hungry Millennial middle class, and powerful economic performance will any outweigh housing crash indicators. As you’ll see in the charts, videos and opinions below this market is an interesting phase.

This United States Housing Report is the most widely read and thorough update/prediction for 2019/2020, and other housing and economic data to 2026. Please bookmark for coming fresh updates!

Looking for specific predictions for major cities:

Los Angeles, New York, Seattle, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Diego, Miami, Boston, Bay Area, Tampa Sarasota and Houston.

See forecasts for California housing, Hawaii housing market, and Florida housing markets.

Also included in the link:

2019 Mortgage Forecast

Median Home Prices

What’s Ahead for 2019/2020?

NAR Predicts Prices Will Rise Another 5% in 2019

Should I Buy A Home in 2019?

US Rental Market Update

Much more - graphs, charts - information overload

https://gordcollins.com/real-estate/us-housing-market-looking-strong-2016-to-2020/

Sacramento, California - Will home prices rise or drop in 2019? Here’s the scoop from Sacramento housing experts

After seven years of price increases, Sacramento’s housing market hit a plateau in 2018.

Prices flattened in the second half of the year. The number of homes on the market decreased. Those that were on the market took longer to sell.

With a very uncertain 2019 home-buying season looming, we’ve asked five local real estate experts to offer their forecasts: What are we in for this year?

Our team: Dean Wehrli is an analyst for John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Erin Stumpf is a Realtor with Coldwell Banker. Greg Paquin heads The Gregory Group, a real estate research and data firm. Pat Shea is president of Lyon Real Estate. And Ryan Lundquist is an appraiser and author of the Sacramento Appraisal Blog.

WHAT HAPPENED TO SACRAMENTO REAL ESTATE IN THE LAST HALF OF 2018?

Lundquist: In one word, the market has been in a slump. Sales volume was down 11 percent from the last year. There have been (homes) on the market that haven’t sold. Prices have been more flat. We had the lowest December in sales volume in the last 11 years.

Stumpf: I think the market was just so crazy in the spring of 2018 that many buyers gave up after being beaten out in competitive offer situations. Interest rates ticked up slightly — though they have fallen back a bit now — so buyers could not afford quite as much as before.

Paquin: Even though we have a strong economy that includes wages beginning to increase more significantly, there has been a faster increase in home values as compared to incomes. (Since late) 2011 new-home values have increased 71 percent and median incomes have increased approximately 15 percent.

Shea: Trade war commotion, elections, interest rate movements, tax considerations and market fatigue all likely contributed to sales tapering off at year end.

Wehrli: Construction and labor costs continue to push pricing (up) in the new home sector. This exacerbated already-high prices which are probably the biggest reason for the slowdown. Stock fluctuations haven’t helped, particularly for buyers with jobs based in the Bay Area. Many potential home buyers figured prices were at a peak, or about to peak. These buyers are trying to time the market. They ... are willing to wait to see how low sellers can go.

WHAT’S YOUR 2019 FORECAST?

Stumpf: I believe Sacramento will see a slight increase in home prices in 2019. I foresee a balanced market between buyers and sellers, and that is great news as far as I am concerned. The number of homes available on the market will be slightly higher than in past years, and homes will take slightly longer to sell on average. Appealing homes that are appropriately priced ... will still see competitive multiple offers and sell quickly.

Wehrli: Home prices are likely to be pretty stable, rising modestly by year end. I expect a decent spring selling season, particularly if mortgage rates remain lower as they have been very recently. Inventory is likely to rise a bit, but, remember, we are coming from a few years now of extraordinarily low levels of inventory.

Shea: Look for a very predictable sales pattern once again in 2019. One can expect (house price) appreciation to (be in) the 4 percent to 6 percent range. Continued job growth and upward pressure on employee compensation appear to remain in play for the foreseeable future in Northern California. Mortgage rates remain incredibly favorable.

Lundquist: If buyers put their foot back on the gas pedal, with mortgages rates going down now, there is room in the market to see values increase. It all boils down right now to what buyers are going to do. It’s a blank canvas.

Paquin: We are optimistic for sales and pricing in 2019. There is a real possibility that sales will equal and perhaps exceed 2018 numbers. (Newly constructed homes) should see a modest increase of between 2 percent and 3.5 percent.

ARE WE IN A BUBBLE, LIKE THE ONE THAT BURST IN 2008?

All five experts: No

Wehrli: The factors that led to a bubble last time — easy money boosting demand artificially and very high levels of supply — are not present now. That is not to say we are not in for a slowdown when the economy cools, but it should be nothing like last time.

Shea: A respectable number of homes in greater Sacramento are free and clear, and the majority with mortgages have significant equity. Payments are very manageable, due to low interest rates and salary escalations.

Stumpf: Previous buyers (a decade-plus ago) hyper-extended themselves and could not actually afford those homes, and when the market declined many had to short sell or were foreclosed. We just do not have those lending products anymore, and buyers have to qualify for loans. Your average buyer today cannot get a loan without a “skin in the game” down payment, good credit, and verifiable income and employment.

Paquin: As compared to the last housing boom-bust cycle of 2008, there has not been the rapid or significant price increases, the artificial lending that helped facilitate the rapid price increases and lenders have become much more diligent in who can or cannot receive a new-home loan.

WHAT’S YOUR ADVICE FOR PEOPLE THINKING ABOUT SELLING AND PEOPLE THINKING ABOUT BUYING?

Wehrli: Be patient. Buyers can wait for great offers, but maybe have to be more realistic at times. The same goes for sellers. The market is what it is and no buyer cares that your costs have gone up or what you paid for your home. But there is still not a lot of inventory out there so sellers have not lost all leverage.

Lundquist: I say to anyone not to get trapped into thinking buying is about where prices are at. Just know the market, be in tune with interest rates, the neighborhood and the schools. Are you going to be comfortable with this mortgage payment? For anyone considering selling, if you’re are going to buy again, prices are also high. That’s the struggle many people face. Be aware the rental market has been tight, so if they plan on renting, they better line up a rental in advance.

Stumpf: Sellers should be carefully reviewing the most recent, relevant, like-kind comparable nearby home sales and set their listing prices in line with those properties. If a home sits on the market with no offers after a few weeks, your price is probably too high. Sellers should also carefully consider pre-listing repairs, cosmetic improvements, and staging to present their properties in the best possible light. Buyers should get pre-approved for their home financing, and stay in touch with their lender and Realtor in case there are any changes in interest rates. And while overall buyers may have a little more time on their side for decision-making, the good properties will go quickly, so be prepared to pounce.

WHAT IMPACT WILL THE SF BAY AREA MARKET HAVE ON US THIS YEAR?

Paquin: We have seen a strong influence of Bay Area buyers to Sacramento that has been increasing during the past 12 to 24 months, with some projects (depending on the location) achieving between 40 percent and 60 percent of their buyers from the Bay Area. (Paquin’s data shows that, in 2003, new home prices in the Sacramento area were 64 percent of Bay Area prices. Now they’re just 49 percent of Bay prices.) Sacramento provides a significant opportunity for Bay Area refuges who desire to stay close and connected to the coast, but choose a more affordable and, perhaps, better quality of life.

Stumpf: I get inquiries from people wanting to relocate to Sacramento from the Bay Area every week, fueled by the desires for a better quality of life and more affordable housing costs. This additional demand is part of the reason why I just do not see any real estate “bubble” in Sacramento’s immediate future. Another important question is: What will the impact of the Butte County wildfires be on Sacramento real estate this coming year? I think many of those households will look to relocate to the greater Sacramento area.

Lundquist: This is not a new phenomenon. We’ve always been less expensive. We’ve been getting “cooler” lately and getting more notice. There will be heightened focus on our market. (But) we don’t have a market where rich cash buyers are buying everything up.

Shea: Those with equity (in the Bay Area) can sell and find tremendous home values in our region. They can often place a nice chunk of residual equity in other investments for a more secure retirement. Many, many others must simply find employment in Sacramento, commute, tele-commute, etc. to have any opportunity for home ownership in Northern California. They are priced out of their current housing markets and that will not change. The population is certain to grow in the Greater Sacramento region and housing will not be able to keep up thus, prices will continue to rise.

ARE THERE ANY TRENDS EMERGING THIS YEAR THAT WE SHOULD KEEP OUR EYE ON?

Lundquist: I think the market is poised for buyers to gain more power than sellers. But not total control. Buyers are making the mistake that sellers were making. Sellers thought they could command whatever price they want. Buyers are making an equal mistake of saying I can offer whatever I want.

Wehrli: Smart home technology is going to continue to grow. It will become less something to impress a potential buyer and more something a potential buyer expects. Google Home and Amazon Echo will be in more homes, but it will also be smart locks and smart security and, yes, smart toilets, but, no, I don’t want to go into details on that. Also, factory-built homes will gradually become a bigger part of the market — though maybe more over the next five or 10 years than the next year. Factory-built can cut costs and time lines.

Shea: Upper end sales, $750,000 and above, have increased measurably over the last few years. Look for that trend to continue considering the persistent migration patterns from our coastal regions.

Paquin: There are several developers that are trying to provide more affordable housing in the Sacramento Region. These homes are generally smaller, situated on smaller lots and offer basic features and amenities; however, sales have been strong at pricing that is generally less than $450,000. Secondly, there is a lot of conversation about ... development of single-family homes as rental units. It is worth keeping an eye on, as it provides a way for people to live in single-family homes without the added costs (down payments, taxes, etc.).

Stumpf: Gov. Gavin Newsom has some lofty goals for housing production during his administration. I would like to think that the legislature will take up housing as a key issue during this session, and we should hopefully see some new policy that enables builders to build, creates zoning that permits dense housing construction near transit, allows more existing property owners to construct accessory dwelling units, and creates funding mechanisms to finance affordable housing.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article224041900.html