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Will Tesla become the peoples' car under Bernie?


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2019 Mar 2, 6:42am   1,910 views  18 comments

by Al_Sharpton_for_President   ➕follow (5)   💰tip   ignore  

SUVs were, until this month, one of the sole remaining bright spots in the rapidly slowing U.S. auto market. Despite the fact that they were crippling traditional sedan sales, Americans' transition to SUVs was seen as a silver lining, prompting many automakers to make infrastructure changes to account for the change in demand.

Those days, however, seem to be over, according to the latest, February U.S. auto sales data. Fiat Chrysler posted its first monthly sales decline in a year, according to Bloomberg. The kicker? Jeep, the company's driving force for the past several years, showed a rare back-to-back drop in deliveries. Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist of Cox Automotive said: “The results today suggest a much bigger story: The sales pace has finally shifted into a lower gear.”

The fact that Jeep sales have slowed is a warning indicator that the SUV "boom" in the U.S. could be coming to an end. Mired by higher interest rates and continued tightening of credit, buyers are forcing once record high SUV sales and prices back down again. As a result, Fiat's Jeep Wrangler sales fell 5.9% in the month, as inventory continued to pile up at dealerships. Fiat joined companies like Toyota, Honda and Nissan, as virtually every OEM both missed analyst estimates for the month and posted an annual sales decline.

Some more details:

Ford sales, which are now only reported on a quarterly basis, were estimated to have fallen 4.4% in February as a result of the company's F-Series sales falling. The Ford brand's total sales were down 5.1% with Lincoln sales helping cushion some of the blow, rising 15%.
GM sales are also estimated to have fallen 5.3% in the month, following a 6.9% drop in January.
Toyota sales were weighed upon by weak demand for its RAV4 compact SUV. Deliveries fell 12.5% for the model as overall sales fell 5.2% in February. Honda saw sales of its Pilot SUV fall 8.8%. Nissan saw deliveries of its Rogue crossover SUV plunge 16%.
In total, the annualized February sales rate slowed to 16.6 million, the worst reading in 18 months, according to researcher Autodata Corp., also missing expectations.

Yet even as SUV sales slump, there does not appear to be a recovery in sight for sedans as demand for the Toyota Camry and Nissan Altima declined by double digits from the year prior. Michelle Krebs, senior analyst for car-shopping researcher Autotrader, told Bloomberg: “Affordability is going to be a challenge for consumers going forward, and we’re beginning to see that.”

As we reported earlier this week, new car prices hit a record high in Q4 2018, with Edmunds reporting that the average transaction price for a new vehicle in December hit an all-time high of $37,260, an increase of $6,598 from December 2010 largely thanks to record high average loan amounts for both new and used cars.

Record high loan balances and rising interest rates, also mean that US consumers are now paying record high monthly payments for both new and used cars.

Despite high prices resulting in slowing sales, dealers were at least disciplined about incentives. February incentives were, on average, $3,721 per vehicle, down $161 from last year. Expect this to change.

Brian Irwin, who leads the automotive practice at consultant Accenture, said: “We’ve seen the average level of incentive spending pulled back from what it was at the end of last year. Carmakers are pulling back now so they can be more bold when there are more people in the marketplace. It’s really about fishing when the fish are biting.”

Reid Bigland, Fiat Chrysler’s head of U.S. sales, said: “The overall industry is starting off slower due in part to weather, the U.S. government shutdown, and concern over tax refunds.”

We noted at the beginning of February that 2019 had started off in abysmal fashion for U.S. auto sales. Last month, on the heels of Nissan seeing a 40% plunge in sales of its Altima sedan, we guessed that the bottom of the plunge for sedans – a result of the popularity of SUVs - wasn't quite in just yet. Now, it looks as though SUV sales are facing a similar fate.

Bigland had also blamed the weather in early February, saying that: "In spite of some frigid January weather, we remain bullish on 2019 given the continued underlying strength of the U.S. economy."

So far, his prognostication looks to be dead wrong. The National Automobile Dealers Association now forecasts 16.8 million deliveries in 2019, down from about 17.3 million last year.

Henio Arcangeli, senior vice president of automotive ops for Honda's U.S. unit also blamed January's sales on the cold weather. So far, no update on what excuse he has made for February. Perhaps March's sales drop will be a result of global warming?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-02/us-auto-sales-tumble-18-month-low-suv-demand-hits-brick-wall

Comments 1 - 18 of 18        Search these comments

1   Tenpoundbass   2019 Mar 6, 12:54pm  

I remember in 2012 Mazda gave me 0% interest and 3,000 incentive for buying a CX9 from them.
Figured something was wrong, even with all that, my payments were still $500 a month. Car prices are going out of control. I think Car loans are the next Bubble.

It will probably be used to hijack the Auto industry and bring about the self driving Car ride share Monopoly all of the Liberal losers keep championing for. It will happen
much like how corporations swooped in and bought up blocks and blocks of Single family homes after the RE bubble. They now out number Owner Residents in many neighborhoods.
They will use the Auto Crash to stop making affordable cars for your average consumer. And focus on cars that start over $60K. That is beyond the 4,5,6 7 year auto loan model and will be stretched past the limit of risk banks will be willing to make for you average would be car buyer.
Mostly for Rich people, the Privileged Liberal Hypocrite class that will be having a Marxist orgasm at all this, and for Ride Share companies that all of the sorry walkers will be calling to go anywhere, Will be who the car makers will consider their demographic. Not the George Jetson who has to drop his kids off at school and get to work.

When that bubble does collapse you be warned, buy the best damn car for the price you can find. Because it will be the last one of it's kind.
2   SunnyvaleCA   2019 Mar 6, 3:30pm  

That's a lot of text up there. Let me summarize for you:
• There is a trend of people buying "light trucks" instead of cars — "light trucks" are, roughly, SUVs, minivans, and pickup trucks.
• There is a (short term) downtrend in vehicle sales of all types as the market sags a bit.
• The two trends above are independent of each other. i.e.: sagging sales aren't causing nor are they caused by the mix ratio of cars to light trucks.
3   MisdemeanorRebel   2019 Mar 6, 4:36pm  

Tenpoundbass says
self driving Car ride share Monopoly


Don't worry, not gonna happen. This is tied in with Robot Deployment: Artificial Perception is the barrier. For Cars it's even tougher, to analyze in real time not only traffic, but at speed and surrounded by other vehicles.
4   AD   2019 Mar 6, 5:04pm  

OccasionalCortex says
I think someone will come up with cheaper cars, like Elio Motors is/was trying to do


I agree. Tesla is too expensive for it to be Bernie Cars.

I think Elio Motors is more like what the Bernie Revolution would promote.
5   RWSGFY   2019 Mar 6, 6:29pm  

MisterLearnToCode says
Tenpoundbass says
self driving Car ride share Monopoly


Don't worry, not gonna happen. This is tied in with Robot Deployment: Artificial Perception is the barrier. For Cars it's even tougher, to analyze in real time not only traffic, but at speed and surrounded by other vehicles.


People who preach the coming of self-driving cars "any moment now" ignore the giant elefant in the room: how all these cameras and sensors are going to deal with the snow/ice/sleet/mud/dust blocking them. Owners of late-model cars with all the gizmos like "lane departure", "adaptive cc" and such report that these system either shutdown completely or act erratically in severe weather conditions. At least now there is a driver who can take over and continue driving w/o the aids, or stop, go out and clean the sensors. What's gonna happen when there is no driver (as in automated 18-wheeler chugging along on I-80 somewhere in the middle of WY)? Or driverless Uber on the way to pick up a passenger?
6   RWSGFY   2019 Mar 6, 6:37pm  

AD says
OccasionalCortex says
I think someone will come up with cheaper cars, like Elio Motors is/was trying to do


I agree. Tesla is too expensive for it to be Bernie Cars.

I think Elio Motors is more like what the Bernie Revolution would promote.


Trabant blueprints are still available. Did you know that the bodies of these wonderful supercars were made of cotton (and phenol resins)? Isn't this Earth-friendly and green AF?
7   HeadSet   2019 Mar 7, 2:25am  

OccasionalCortex says
Volkswagon means 'people's car' in German. One of Hitler's pet projects.


Yes, but the VW was a product of a private enterprise. The Socialist "people's car" is more like a Trabant.
8   kt1652   2019 Mar 7, 9:43am  

To say AV tech must be level 5 or it’s useless/failure is to think small.
Did aerospace tech go from primitive launches to Mars rover and reusable rockets overnight?
Good engineering is 80/20 rule. If 80% of goal is achieved, it is useful. 100% is fool’s gold.
Of course risk must be in the calculation too, e.g. nuke failures etc must be 999999’s…
Does SouthWest take off in severe inclement weather? Some rules must be implemented in any AV tech.
For instance, initially only geo-fenced, 3D mapped interstate routes in acceptable visibility.
I believe any sane, thoughtful person would agree with limitation of any technology.
I see folks here tout accountability, despise the nanny state, yet howl like sky-falling “what if’s” the tech is misused or fails?
There is a latest video of Tesla dipstick sleep driving, hands on wheel. If I were dictator, he would be booked and car confiscated. Even today’s level 3 AV, it is safer than the low bar set by humans. If people don’t understand the tradeoffs, one being net lower fatalities but perhaps failures in different modes, it is a human perception problem. No different than flu vaccines prevent many more deaths than it itself causes.
9   RWSGFY   2019 Mar 7, 10:26am  

kt1652 says
For instance, initially only geo-fenced, 3D mapped interstate routes in acceptable visibility.


Meaning what exactly? This sounds like the fleet of "self-driving 18-wheelers" will be pretty much idling half of the year in most states along the backbone of commercial trucking a.k.a I-80. Nobody can guarantee that a self-driving truck starting in Chicago and bound for Denver some time in November-March won't encounter conditions which are not exactly hampering for a human-operated truck, but will cause hours (or even days) of delay for the self-driving thing. How is this economical? Will it need to be subsidized? To what end? While the argument can be made for govenment subsidies needed to avert "AGW catastrophe", what argument can be made for govenment subsidizing self-driving trucks?
10   kt1652   2019 Mar 7, 10:41am  

Exactly like the internet, power grid failures will cripple today's ATMs, gas station, air travel, $tranfers, communications.
So did that stop the 1st stage automation - no, because it is so much more efficient, even if factoring in the down time.

Did you forget, I said AV tech will implement in stages?
Today, maybe an expert human driver leading a convoy of 6 AV trucks across the country. Arriving at hubs, then humans take over short haul to distribution to final destinations.
Tomorrow, AV trucks fan out every where, 24-7.

Just like solar, when Walmart is installing them, you know it is bottomline green not treehugging green.
11   RWSGFY   2019 Mar 7, 10:51am  

kt1652 says
Today, maybe an expert human driver leading a convoy of 6 AV trucks across the country.


This is basically like putting a freight train on rubber wheels and letting it loose on a freeway: the thing that long won't be able to pass, so it will be forewer stuck in the right lane behind whatever is the slowest-moving vehicle there. There is a reason "road trains" are used only in desolated areas of Australia and these are limited to quads max. And what happens again when cameras and sensros become compromised with sleet/snow/ice? The whole caravan would stop on the shoulder and the poor "expert" will be running around cleaning everything? Rinse, repeat every 20 minutes?
12   kt1652   2019 Mar 7, 10:53am  

Hugolas_Madurez says
kt1652 says
For instance, initially only geo-fenced, 3D mapped interstate routes in acceptable visibility.


Meaning what exactly? This sounds like the fleet of "self-driving 18-wheelers" will be pretty much idling half of the year in most states along the backbone of commercial trucking a.k.a I-80. Nobody can guarantee that a self-driving truck starting in Chicago and bound for Denver some time in November-March won't encounter conditions which are not exactly hampering for a human-operated truck, but will cause hours (or even days) of delay for the self-driving thing. How is this economical? Will it need to be subsidized? To what end? While the argument can be made for govenment subsidies needed to avert "AGW catastrophe", what argument can be made for govenment subsidizing self-driving trucks?

Yes, there is a steering wheel, one can wrestle it away from the digital god any time to drive in blizzard hell if he wishes.
13   kt1652   2019 Mar 7, 11:02am  

Hugolas_Madurez says
kt1652 says
Today, maybe an expert human driver leading a convoy of 6 AV trucks across the country.


This is basically like putting a freight train on rubber wheels and letting it loose on a freeway: the thing that long won't be able to pass, so it will be forewer stuck in the right lane behind whatever is the slowest-moving vehicle there. There is a reason "road trains" are used only in desolated areas of Australia and these are limited to quads max. And what happens again when cameras and sensros become compromised with sleet/snow/ice? The whole caravan would stop on the shoulder and the poor "expert" will be running around cleaning everything? Rinse, repeat every 20 minutes?

So many excuses. It would be extremely easy to program an AV convoy to pass a slower car, one at a time. Have you ever been drive in Germany autobahn, esp at night, when trucks are out in force? The autobahns are mostly 2 lanes, a slow lane and an unlimited speed lane. ;-)
Professional truck drivers dodge in and out of the slow to pass slower vehicles. You stay in the fast lane, you will die.
200 mph Porsche, Masserati, Audi will send you to maker fast. USA driving behavior will fail completely.
Equipment failures? Do I care? Put redundancy in, hw costs trumps people labor/insurance/litigation/regulations/medical costs easily.
14   RWSGFY   2019 Mar 7, 11:34am  

kt1652 says
Have you ever been drive in Germany autobahn, esp at night, when trucks are out in force?


And yet, no "road trains" even in Germany with all their "ubermensch" drivers. Even worse, their restriction on the length of tractor-trailer combination is much stricter than in US (ever wondered why all their tractors are COE design?). And here we are, proposing putting what is basically 12-trailer-long road train on the road. Not gonna happen any time soon (if ever).
15   HeadSet   2019 Mar 7, 12:03pm  

OccasionalCortex says
HeadSet says
Yes, but the VW was a product of a private enterprise. The Socialist "people's car" is more like a Trabant.


Socialist economics: Where the means of production is just outright in the State's hands.
Fascist economics: Where the means of production remain in private hands but are so directed by the State as to make the distinction almost meaningless. Sometimes called 'corporatism'.


I gotta disagree on the Fascism = Corporatism part. Under Fascism, the government controls, but does not own industry. Hence Adolf could order Ferdinand Porshe to build and sell that VW. Under corporatism, it is the other way around - the corporations control government. Examples of corporatism are regulatory capture and when a major sports franchise gets a stadium built at taxpayers expense.
16   HeadSet   2019 Mar 7, 12:14pm  

Yes, that Wikipedia read was fascinating. What I was describing I presume would be crony corporatism.
17   kt1652   2019 Mar 7, 2:08pm  

Hugolas_Madurez says
kt1652 says
Have you ever been drive in Germany autobahn, esp at night, when trucks are out in force?


And yet, no "road trains" even in Germany with all their "ubermensch" drivers. Even worse, their restriction on the length of tractor-trailer combination is much stricter than in US (ever wondered why all their tractors are COE design?). And here we are, proposing putting what is basically 12-trailer-long road train on the road. Not gonna happen any time soon (if ever).
time stamp this quote. Keep thoughts delineated, ok? All I'm saying is USA vast distances, intestate sys is perfect for AV trucking. People don't know how to drive, that is a US handicap, it is not technical.
"%Utilization" as in 24-7, no rest time, will beat everything. A rig is not earning, in fact costing, when idle. Cargo - times enroute cost more than logistics, which can be optimized. Why UPS kicks USPS's butt.
18   kt1652   2019 Mar 8, 1:41am  

kt1652 says
Hugolas_Madurez says
kt1652 says
Have you ever been drive in Germany autobahn, esp at night, when trucks are out in force?


And yet, no "road trains" even in Germany with all their "ubermensch" drivers. Even worse, their restriction on the length of tractor-trailer combination is much stricter than in US (ever wondered why all their tractors are COE design?). And here we are, proposing putting what is basically 12-trailer-long road train on the road. Not gonna happen any time soon (if ever).
time stamp this quote. Keep thoughts delineated, ok? All I'm saying is USA vast distances, intestate sys is perfect for AV trucking. People don't know how to drive, that is a US handicap, it is not technical.
"%Utilization" as in 24-7, no rest time, will beat everything. A rig is not earning, in fact ...
Feb 20, 2019 - Amazon's strategy for driverless technologies — whether for drones, trucks or ... a self-driving semitruck emblazoned with the Amazon Prime logo was spotted on ...
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/self-driving-truck-startup-tusimple-confident-of-commercial-driverless-by-2021--FY5ce4I4UCGUPXRgzavRQ/
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/12/self-driving-tractor-trailer-truck-startup-valued-at-1-billion-.html
https://www.businessinsider.com/autonomous-trucker-tusimple-announces-95-million-funding-2019-2

Why I waste my time in old crud's echo chamber? Carry on.
I'll be ordering the y for wife when available - absolutely online!
The supercharger network is the unmatched Tesla advantage.

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