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#UScivilwar2Those Fearing A Syria-Type Civil War In The US Need Only To Look At South Africa 25 Years Ago
April 29, 1994, was a warm and sunny day in Port Elizabeth South Africa. History was being made that day. South Africa was having its first all-race election. A quarter of a century ago, I was poor with a low-level government job and living in a humble residence. It was a national holiday. I was at home and not working. Around ten in the morning, a 3-Series BMW pulled up near my residence. A Captain in the South African Army got out of the car and came to my door. He had a pronounced Afrikaans accent but told me in English that he was there to take me to vote in this historic election. (How I got to this point is a story for another blog post.) I went with him and got into his car. Police and the army were deployed in large numbers. They feared the worse. I sensed a warm and a relaxed vibe. I was driven to the polling place. I presented my self and was quickly allowed to vote. All the ballots had pictures of the various candidates as many new voters could not read and write. How I voted is private. The army officer returned me to my residence. That evening there was wild euphoria all over South Africa. Nobody in the world can throw a party like South Africans do (of all races.) It was one huge party after another. One African lady said it all as she was being interviewed on South African Broadcasting Commission: “Finally we will be treated as adults and not children.” I had been part of an incredible moment in history.
There was a lot of fear of widespread election violence and an armed insurrection by the Afrikaans minority. It never materialized. Long before the election, one most-astute South African journalist made the bold prediction that no armed insurrection would come from the Afrikaans population. He made the following comment:
“These people have decent homes and apartments (for the most part.) They eat nice food and drive nice cars. They enjoy their servants and meals out at good restaurants. They are not going to give up their comfortable life to go and fight a hopeless and bloody civil war.”
His prediction was right.
Let us “fast forward” 25 years to today in the USA. There is a lot of fear that if Donald Trump is removed from office or voted out of office in 2020, his right wing and well-armed supporters will start an armed civil war like the one going on in Syria. The statistics are frightening. There are between 300,000,000 and 600,000,000 guns in the US. Despite this massive number of guns, 78 % of the American households do not own a gun. This means that 22% of the US households own all this fire power. One could draw the inference that most of this 22% minority are strong Trump supporters. These people include quite a few billionaires who might fund such an armed insurrection. The Fox News network and other right-wing large media owners (Rupert Murdock, for example) would give it strong support. Foreign countries like Saudi Arabia and even Russia might start to support this rebellion. It is a grim future.
I’m not losing any sleep over this grim possibility. I think back to South Africa 25 years ago and the prophetic words of that one very smart journalist: “They are not going to give up their comfortable lives to participate in a violent civil war they will not win.”