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Four reasons why Trump is cruising toward re-election


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2019 Jun 21, 8:57am   1,068 views  12 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/20/four-reasons-why-trump-is-cruising-towards-re-election

Remarkably, given the traumatic experience of 2016, many Democrats have still not learned the key lesson of US democracy: elections are not won by passive majorities but by mobilized minorities. And while the passive majority might be with the Democrats, or at least not with Trump, the mobilized minority is. There are (at least) four reasons why, at this moment, Trump is cruising towards re-election. ...

Second, Trump has so far delivered to his non-traditional base. The average Republican, commonly referred to as the “moderate Republican”, is still not a fan of Trump, who is seen as too confrontational and vulgar, but got the one thing they care about: a tax cut. Scared of a “socialist backlash” within the Democratic party, they will come out to protect their new gains by voting Trump.
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Similarly, the Christian right will once again come out strong. While the support for Trump by religious voters puzzles liberals, it is pretty straightforward: the supreme court. Here, again, Trump has delivered. He has appointed two staunchly conservative anti-abortion judges to the supreme court, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, and promised to appoint more. And with the possibility of (at least) one position possibly becoming vacant in the next presidential term, ie Ruth Bader Ginsburg (perhaps also Clarence Thomas), the Christian right mobilization will run on full cylinders again. The reward for the faithful: overturning Roe v Wade!

Finally, there is the real Trump supporter, the mostly blue-collar and lower-middle-class white voters who want to “build the wall” (nativism) and “drain the swamp” (populism). So far, they have not really gotten what they wanted. The swamp has barely been drained – rather, it has been expanded by corrupt Trump appointees – while, despite all of Trump’s grandstanding, the wall is still mostly a fence-in-building. In short, the real Trump voter is left wanting – as is at times loudly proclaimed by their media voices like Ann Coulter and Tucker Carlson. But where can they go? To the most diverse party in US history? The party of Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Stacey Abrams and Elizabeth Warren?


I keep hoping the Democrats will drop the divisive identity politics shit and get back to being Democrats - representing working Americans instead of global capital.

But so far, they just don't seem interested in that. And so they will lose again.

Comments 1 - 12 of 12        Search these comments

1   Shaman   2019 Jun 21, 9:03am  

The millennials of the Democrat party are heavy into divisive racial and feminist/gender/homo shit. They are seriously radical, out of touch with the Democrat base, and will absolutely ruin Democrat chances in 2020. Will they grow wiser by 2024? Or will they only grow crazier?
Black people are already deserting the donkey corpse, and the more ridiculous they get, the more minorities of every stripe will throw up their hands and bail.
2   Rin   2019 Jun 21, 9:13am  

Here's the scoop, the election is not decided by the metro regions of Boston, NYC, Philadelphia, DC, Chicago, LA, SF.

Unless the Democrats understand the above, they will lose 2020.

Right now, they're just getting the usual heavily Democratic metro regions amped up to put in more throwaway votes.

How about this? ... move to Milwaukee WI, Columbus OH, Indianapolis ID, etc, start companies there or telecommute (if your main office is still coastal) and lift those regions out of their long term economic slump and then, cast your vote for the Dems. But no, those places aren't urban chic enough for a bunch of pampered Bostonians and New Yorkers.
3   Rin   2019 Jun 21, 9:14am  

BTW, I live in Boston but don't discuss politics because the pro-Hillary types are all over the place and retarded.
4   clambo   2019 Jun 21, 9:15am  

It’s always annoying to read the “real Trump voters” are low class/low education whites.

I met many people not in this description who like Trump.

There are a lot of dumb people who still think giving foreigners free access to our jobs and benefits is good because they “are poor.”

Finally people are challenging this absurdity.
5   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2019 Jun 21, 9:28am  

Btw the polls are straight bullshit. The Dems, Republicans, and Independents are right around 1/3 each, with slightly less republicans and slightly more indies.

Each of the polls I’ve seen that have Trump in the low 40’s approval rating...you may ask yourself how that’s even possible with Trump having over 90% Republican approval....we’ll they all have President Trump at around 30-35% approval amount indepenedents.

I don’t know which independents are being polled, but I know that number is straight out false, like no way in hell even close. I’d guess in 2020, President Trump gets around 65-70% of the independent vote, which means an absolute Trump landslide victory.
6   rdm   2019 Jun 21, 9:38am  

CovfefeButDeadly says
I’d guess in 2020, President Trump gets around 65-70% of the independent vote


So he has expanded his base of support since 2016? So yes "you guess", while all data says otherwise. Trump definitely can win but a landslide (for Trump) is, at this point, not even remotely possible. The Trump cake is baked with something over 50% of registered voters say they will not under any circumstance vote for Trump. It is all about getting the base out (both Rep. and Dem.), but unfortunately for Trump the strongest part of his base is dying off every day from old age.
7   komputodo   2019 Jun 21, 9:44am  

clambo says
It’s always annoying to read the “real Trump voters” are low class/low education whites.

solution: stay away from the media...there is nothing there worth reading or listening to anyways.
8   Bd6r   2019 Jun 21, 9:50am  

rdm says
So he has expanded his base of support since 2016? So yes "you guess", while all data says otherwise. Trump definitely can win but a landslide (for Trump) is, at this point, not even remotely possible. The Trump cake is baked with something over 50% of registered voters say they will not under any circumstance vote for Trump. It is all about getting the base out (both Rep. and Dem.), but unfortunately for Trump the strongest part of his base is dying off every day from old age.

Media was telling that all also during last election. Turned out slightly different from how it looked in their liberal bubbles. Perhaps visiting WI and MI countryside would have given presstitutes a different perspective - they were littered with TRUMP signs with no Hillary signs anywhere.
In all fairness, ItRUMP will cruise to easy re-election if economy does not crash before the election. He is demanding interest rate cuts and he cut taxes inflating the deficit because he wants to postpone the crash to after the election. If economy crashes before the election, he will be voted out unless D's find a total loser candidate, which they are capable of doing.
9   Shaman   2019 Jun 21, 11:16am  

Independents tend to vote for economic reasons not social ones. If he keeps the economy afloat and rising then he will get the independent vote.
10   RC2006   2019 Jun 21, 11:37am  

The independent vote is the decider now and the far left is chasing them away especially if they have kids.
11   HeadSet   2019 Jun 21, 12:07pm  

The independent vote is the decider now

The independent vote was the decider then, too.
12   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2019 Jun 21, 12:35pm  

Independents vote for Trump was 42% in 2016.

I would think it’s substantually increased in that time. I maintain the polls are dead wrong.

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