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America's Retreat From Policing The Oceans: How totally fucked much of the rest of the world will be as a result

By OccasionalCortex following x   2019 Jun 25, 1:44pm 608 views   14 comments   watch   nsfw   quote     share    


THIS is the real, 'big picture' of what his happening in the PG right now. This guy predicted this would happen YEARS ago too -- before Trump was in the WH or the 2016 election.

Trump just made clear the days of America protecting global shipping – particularly of oil shipping in the Middle East – are over.

There is an easy argument to be made that the United States’ shale revolution will make the United States a net exporter of crude oil in the current calendar year, but to understand just how critical that is for the Americans we must first pick apart just how horrible that is for everyone else.

After World War II the Americans created a global Order – a mix of security and trade guarantees which they used as a bribe to induce others to join their side in the Cold War against the Soviet Union. With global security now a thing, oil could be shipped safely and at volume without military escort, meaning that countries that didn’t have a military capable of escorting could now access fossil fuels. BAM! Civilization goes global.

Remove the Order, remove global oil markets, and civilization itself goes into screaming reverse in any location that lacks either the ability to produce oil locally, or the ability to venture forth and secure someone else’s.

Between oil’s criticality to and ubiquitousness in modern life, oil is by far the most commonly traded product on Earth comprising some 18% of all maritime shipping traffic (by volume). About a third of all waterborne crude and product shipments originate in the Persian Gulf.

At the end of World War II every nation of consequence aside from the United Kingdom had lost its navy. The United States in essence inherited the global ocean. America’s creation of the Order gave everyone aside from the Soviets a vested economic interest in not floating a new one. Fast forward to today and the American Navy is over ten times as powerful as the combined blue water fleets of every other country combined. Putting that force disconnect at the service of the global commons is what makes the Order work, and what makes global energy shipments and markets possible.

Pre-Order, merchant shipping used small, fast vessels because they needed to be able to scatter and hopefully outrun predators whether those predators wore eyepatches or naval uniforms. The Order ended such predation under the watchful eye of the U.S. Navy.

The world’s second- through sixth-most powerful navies in terms of long-range power projection are (roughly in order) Japan, the United Kingdom, France, China, and Russia. Of these only Russia need not sail forth for oil, as it has plenty of its own. France and the United Kingdom can secure what they need from the North Sea and North and West Africa. China has only 30 combat-capable surface ships of size that can effectively operate over 1000 miles from shore; unfortunately (for the Chinese) Southern China is a cool 5800 or so miles distant from the Persian Gulf. Only India – keeper of the world’s seventh-strongest navy – is even remotely proximate.

End result? Today’s oil markets comprise the greatest concentration of risk in the most critical economic sector at the most vulnerable part of the global system and no one can do anything about it if the Americans leave.


Read the entire thing at https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=de2bc41f8324e6955ef65e0c9&id=9df7fad798

1   HonkpilledMaster   ignore (5)   2019 Jun 25, 3:57pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Time for Germoney to start building a fleet!
2   OccasionalCortex   ignore (3)   2019 Jun 25, 4:05pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HonkpilledMaster says
Time for Germoney to start building a fleet!


Or just pay the French to expand their's. Or create a 'euro fleet' but then nobody in the EU would want to pay for it.
3   Iranian_Oil_Burse   ignore (5)   2019 Jun 25, 4:07pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HonkpilledMaster says
Time for Germoney to start building a fleet!


Nah, they would rather have Putin's dick up their ass, thankyouverymuch.
4   HEYYOU   ignore (30)   2019 Jun 25, 4:09pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"Instead, the fracking industry has helped set new records for U.S. oil production while continuing to lose huge amounts of money – and that was before the recent crash in oil prices."

"On the edge of the Permian in New Mexico, The Albuquerque Journal reported the industry is “on pace this year to leap past last year’s record oil production,” according to Ryan Flynn, executive director of the New Mexico Oil and Gas Association. And yet that oil has at times been discounted as much as $20 a barrel compared to world oil prices because New Mexico doesn’t have the infrastructure to move all of it."

“The 32 mid-size U.S. exploration companies included in this review reported nearly $1 billion in negative cash flows through September.”

https://www.nationofchange.org/2018/12/20/fracking-in-2018-another-year-of-pretending-to-make-money/
5   OccasionalCortex   ignore (3)   2019 Jun 25, 4:13pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HEYYOU says
And yet that oil has at times been discounted as much as $20 a barrel compared to world oil prices because New Mexico doesn’t have the infrastructure to move all of it."

That is a sing of success, not failure. And if Bluetard New Mexico doesn't want to build out the necessary infrastructure, that isn't going to stop other states like Texas from doing so.

HEYYOU says
“The 32 mid-size U.S. exploration companies included in this review reported nearly $1 billion in negative cash flows through September.”

Exploration companies are not drilling companies. And so what if they are in the red? They go under, new companies sprout like weeds to take their place -- their advanced extraction equipment sold for pennies on the dollar during liquidation that is then used by these new companies or existing ones. This isn't ExxonMobile or Saudi ARAMCO we are talking about here.

But a HEYYOU comment would not be complete if it weren't full of holes like the ones I just pointed out, eh?
6   6rdB   ignore (1)   2019 Jun 26, 9:23am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Hugolas_Madurez says
Nah, they would rather have Putin's dick up their ass, thankyouverymuch.

provided that select Germans such as Mr. Schroeder are paid off with seats on various Gazprom boards
7   NuttBoxer   ignore (2)   2019 Jun 26, 10:29am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Annnnd, here come the imperialists crying for us to police the world.

8   OccasionalCortex   ignore (3)   2019 Jun 26, 11:33am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

NuttBoxer says
Annnnd, here come the imperialists crying for us to police the world.


Loved that movie! Esp the soundtrack!
9   Booger   ignore (3)   2019 Jun 26, 1:23pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

OccasionalCortex says
Or just pay the French to expand their's


They'll just surrender anyway.
10   6rdB   ignore (1)   2019 Jun 26, 1:35pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Booger says
They'll just surrender anyway.

11   clambo   ignore (4)   2019 Jun 26, 9:20pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Trump's position is correct and brilliant; we have been protecting the trade between various other countries with our tax dollars and have been paid zero for this favor.

I don't know the numbers, but we have spent billions of dollars protecting Europe, Japan, Korea and other places for free.

Europe grew their welfare state while Americans paid to protect them. We got nothing in return, not respect of course.
12   HEYYOU   ignore (30)   2019 Jun 27, 10:21am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

OccasionalCortex says
But a HEYYOU comment would not be complete if it weren't full of holes like the ones I just pointed out, eh?


From the link-
"The numbers don’t lie. Despite the highest oil prices in years and record amounts of oil production, the fracking industry continued to spend more than it made in 2018. And somehow, smaller industry losses can still be interpreted as being “more profitable than ever.”
I noticed it said "fracking industry" not "Exploration companies".

Give me a link to support your,at present, holey comments.

Here's one you can punch holes in. Republicans are on handouts & subsidies paid for by successful hard working Republicans' taxes.
Got me! I don't have the exact numbers.
13   OccasionalCortex   ignore (3)   2019 Jun 27, 11:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HEYYOU says
I noticed it said "fracking industry" not "Exploration companies".


You quoted from it where it said Exploration companies. Try noticing the very bullshit you decide to quote, ok? Because once you do, YOU own it. Especially when it turns out to be bullshit.

As for the stats, again WHO CARES? This industry is made up of all kinds of small to medium players. Some go out of business, others consolidate while new entrants enter the business. The Big Oil Firms stay out because anything involving real competition is too high a risk for them -- they prefer bribing third world goons for 30 year oil leases instead.

"Despite the highest oil prices in years and record amounts of oil production, the fracking industry continued to spend more than it made in 2018."

Welcome to Silicon Valley, oil patch style! Silicon Valley is still around despite repeated prognostications of its death.

I fact, Shale Oil is very tech-orientated. That is why it gets so much capital despite the disruption -- the capital is targeted to deliver MORE disruption, just like in SV.

So again, whomever wrote that article doesn't know shit from shinola on this subject matter.
14   OccasionalCortex   ignore (3)   2019 Jun 27, 11:59am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

HEYYOU says
Here's one you can punch holes in. Republicans are on handouts & subsidies paid for by successful hard working Republicans' taxes.


WHY? WTF does that have to do with this subject? Nothing.

Nice try with the red herring attempt there. Too bad I caught you and called you out for THAT BULLSHIT as well, eh?

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