patrick.net

Ars Technica recently ran an account of an interview with the chief executive of European aerospace company Ariane Group, Alain Charmeau, who is less than amused about the price pressure SpaceX is placing on rocket launches.

The problem is, as Space News recently noted, a rocket launch on an Ariane 5 costs $137 million before European Space Agency subsidies knock the cost down to $100 million. Ariane Group would like to lower the cost further to $96 million, still well above what SpaceX is able to charge. Moreover, the Ariane 6, due to enter service in 2020, will still cost more than the Falcon 9. In the same year, the Blue Origin New Glenn is due to start flying, further disrupting the launch market.

Charmeau said something very telling about the idea of reusable rockets. "Let us say we had ten guaranteed launches per year in Europe and we had a rocket which we can use ten times — we would build exactly one rocket per year. That makes no sense. I cannot tell my teams: 'Goodbye, see you next year!'"

Elon Musk, were he inclined to comment, might suggest that Ariane find more customers so that they could launch more than 10 a year. He would also suggest that short turn-arounds are just as important as reusability. The space shuttle was reusable (sort of), but NASA spent months turning an orbiter around between missions. SpaceX is shooting for turning around a Falcon 9 first-stage in a day, though typically the time required will be a little longer.

As for that 10 guaranteed launches a year Charmeau ruminated about, SpaceX performed 18 flights of the Falcon 9 in 2017, double the number the year before. So far, SpaceX has launched nine Falcon 9s and a Falcon Heavy in 2018. The company hopes to launch over 30 rockets in total in 2018.