patrick.net

You would think that real estate loans would be down dramatically because of the crash. But this graph shows them being up instead.

I tried to overlap with the interest rate and inflation rate for the Graph, it make more sense then; Plus CPI it comes even better.
Say for example, 2000, Greenspan start to lower the interest rate, and money start to lost its value around 2003, 2005.
Thanks for posting.

This is pure speculation, but for starters this is loans held by the banks. A lot of the real junk was sold off and securitized. As the securitized loans go into foreclosure, they get financed and now held by the banks (as securitization is now effectively nil, except for agency backed securities).

Try looking at it as percentage change y-o-y, especially during past recessions. It shows the growth goes declines to less than 5% but stays positive. So it is what it is. Doesn't seem to correlate at all with housing strength or prices (other than a decline in yoy growth).

That might be it.......So....if a real estate loan company becomes owned or taken over by a bank,... or a an institution getting "annointed" as a bank.....their RE loans then subsequently become commercial bank loans.....Makes sense....and would explain the spike as all these companies become banks....or....taken over by banks....
Thanks.....that would certainly explain it...