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Bubble modeling?


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2006 May 2, 2:57pm   18,987 views  251 comments

by totoro   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Hello,

Not sure if this has been discussed here or not, but I recently came across the following report from HBSC Global Research. It’s a pretty comprehensive analysis of the US housing market based on a model called HomePulse, which they developed and have made publicly available. I've linked the spreadsheet below also. There is so much data, buttons and knobs to play with that I haven't been able to even scratch the surface on it. I think there are some sharp minds on this forum - it would be interesting to see some discussion of this work.

HBSC Report (PDF, large)

HomePulse model (Excel)

#housing

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1   astrid   2006 May 2, 3:00pm  

try tinyurl.com for your links

2   astrid   2006 May 2, 3:01pm  

also, the HSBC FFM report has been extensively discussed and I'm having trouble opening the spreadsheet

3   totoro   2006 May 2, 3:05pm  

Ok, sorry about that. I cleaned up the links, they work for me. Can you point me to previous discussion, I searched and could find any. Thanks

4   astrid   2006 May 2, 3:14pm  

Thanks for cleaning up the url.

The main HSBC discussion was here

http://patrick.net/wp/?p=189

I think there's definitely room to discuss some of the more technical aspects of the rubric.

The other page is crashing my firefox though. Hopefully this is an isolated problem...

5   astrid   2006 May 2, 3:25pm  

totoro

Nevermind, it's actually more in the one below.

Anyways, welcome. And don't get upset when this thread gets hijacked for car talk, food talk, haiku talk, etc. That happens in every thread.

http://patrick.net/wp/?p=194

6   tsusiat   2006 May 2, 4:20pm  

Might as well hijack this thread now. Must bring up other topics. Say, how's the weather in Austin?

7   Peter P   2006 May 2, 4:25pm  

Might as well hijack this thread now. Must bring up other topics. Say, how’s the weather in Austin?

Or better yet, how's sushi in Austin?

8   LILLL   2006 May 2, 4:34pm  

Forget "Desperate Housewives." Here, people talk about the latest adventures of sometimes-desperate home sellers, with neighbors trading tales about how much the asking price was reduced, friends keeping track of each other's foot traffic and always -- always -- trying to maximize curb appeal.

This was in Patricks stories for tomorrow.
I can't wait for this to happen in my town.
We're almost there.... ;)

9   tsusiat   2006 May 2, 4:38pm  

Sushi in Austin?

Isn't that one of those newfangled Japanese sub compact cars?

Trucks are much better for Austin. Rangers. F-150s, if you catch my drift...

10   astrid   2006 May 2, 4:44pm  

Hey! Is that Jake Gyllenhaal driving a Prius past an Austin sushi place in 90 degree weather on his way to an open house that just got a price reduction?!?!

11   Joe Schmoe   2006 May 2, 11:08pm  

Have fun Skibum.

12   DinOR   2006 May 2, 11:30pm  

Vacation? Couple of weeks? I'm in the wrong business. Anyway have fun skibum!

What I found interesting in regard to the HSBC froth finder was that there are occasions where I get brushed aside as "Bubble Jr." or "toy bubble playa" when in truth Portland is only a few rankings behind the BA! While I readily admit that your housing dollar will go A LOT farther here it doesn't mean that we can't implode in an big way just like the real playas in the BA!

13   DinOR   2006 May 2, 11:32pm  

I'm a playa damn it!

14   totoro   2006 May 2, 11:46pm  

The replies to this thread are also cc'ed to my email. Any way to turn that off? Thanks

15   astrid   2006 May 3, 12:04am  

DinOR,

Oregon imploding is kind of like Zimbabawe imploding, most people won't notice and will not be directly impacted. However, if Oregon is very very lucky, it might be chosen as the birthplace of the second Brangelina spawn, whenever that'll be.

skibum,

Have fun! Please tell us about the RE craziness you find on vacation.

16   DinOR   2006 May 3, 12:12am  

astrid,

So true, so true. I believe right now we are still under 4 million in population but the reality here is that the crash will feel like a very personal event. Even though there will be foreclosures from coast to coast that isn't going to help Mr/Ms. Homedebtor feel any better. When it's all said and done I strongly believe that we have the higher potential to see an even larger correction than the BA. Also our recovery will take much longer so in short, a nastier bubble!

17   Randy H   2006 May 3, 12:22am  

You can reference the back history of discussions relating to HSBC's model and other data from my blog:

More macro evidence of hard landing for US home prices

That discussion spurred thoughts on how to create a comprehensive simulation model:

Creating a Residential Real-Estate Timing Model

And I created the Bubblizer which is a personal purchase decision modeler that is inspired by and compliant with the HSBC HomePulse model.

18   DinOR   2006 May 3, 12:31am  

Randy H,

Also interesting to note that the "Froth Finders" made mention that given the steep discounts for renting there had best be substantial capital gains built into the current scenario just to "off set" the discounts. Oh, and can you tell *astrid* that Portland Oregon IS the center of the universe?

Thanks,

DinOR

19   DinOR   2006 May 3, 1:02am  

astrid,

I can think of no higher compliment. We have the nicest plant nurseries. Great........ No, just kidding! I've always said that our bubble was contingent on the BA as well as Seattle and according to the HSBC report we are only slightly behind those markets in vulnerability.

I've worked with some folks that went to Reed College, very intelligent and very weird.

20   DinOR   2006 May 3, 1:20am  

Robert Cote'

I'll be in the market for a late model Suburban by mid-summer. My daughters are already giving me grief. Then as my wife and I go for our afternoon walk we see the youngest one driving past us from 3 different directions as she motors about town. We've confronted her about "consolidating" trips and you just get that blank/eat sh*t look. Great......

21   astrid   2006 May 3, 1:43am  

newsfreak and DinOR,

Sorry, but teenagers in suburbans? Are you so concerned about the population pressure on this planet that you'd let your teenagers work on the problem with direct action? Remember that SUVs don't handle well, so they're more likely to be involved in serious accidents when in the hands of inexperienced drivers.

22   astrid   2006 May 3, 1:50am  

I think kids under 21 should be given moped permits and no more...

23   astrid   2006 May 3, 1:52am  

Why would seniors prefer Florida over Arizona? It seems to me that AZ winter weather would be even better and don't come with the hurricane issue.

24   DinOR   2006 May 3, 1:54am  

newsfreak,

Oh, yeah. We've had our share of teen fender benders, nothing serious thank God. I grew up during the 70's gas crunch and biked a lot but it was at a time when using a bike for transportation (not fitness "challenges") was O.K. They both usually have jobs and know better than to ask "dad" for money. Uh, so they "work" on mom. Mom's getting better.

25   DinOR   2006 May 3, 1:57am  

astrid,

Most retirees on the west coast go to AZ/LV and on the east coast they go to FL/VI. It's assumed that this way they can be "close" to their kids. I think it has to do with the fact that people from the west don't want to spend their winter with a "bunch of loud mouth complaining New Yorkers" and those from the east think we are flakes?

26   astrid   2006 May 3, 1:58am  

Actually, the availability of cheap second hand SUVs are a serious auto safety issue going forward. The young/inexperienced drivers had been largely locked out due to the high price of new SUVs, but now that the stock is getting old and cheap, we may soon see a lot of Suburbans in the hands 17 year old boys.

27   astrid   2006 May 3, 2:01am  

AZ has pretty good lake accessibility, and lots of gambling..

But I can't resist a gardening related reason. Newsfreak, I surrender to your greener logic!

28   DinOR   2006 May 3, 2:02am  

newsfreak,

The "front" is becoming more united and you're right it boils down to financial survival. Their expectations know no bounds. It also lets the other kids (and their parents) off the hook. If you always have food in the kitchen, gas in the car and money in their wallets the other kids don't have to go through the whole degrading experience of groveling for dollars.

29   astrid   2006 May 3, 2:03am  

goober,

I don't hate kids, they're delicious if roasted with a ginger teriyaki sauce.

30   DinOR   2006 May 3, 2:13am  

newsfreak,

Uh, yeah the insurance thing is a killer. What I simply can not understand is that given it's a requirement in most states and most of us will drive until we can no longer why don't the insurers offer these young people the option of some sort of "level premium". Meaning, rather than get a HUGE break when you turn 25 (or get married) charge them a lesser amount up front and then keep the premium a little higher from say age 25 thru 28 or 30 or whatever it takes to keep the underwriters happy so these kids have a fighting chance? I'll be standing by to get flamed by the industry now thank you.

31   astrid   2006 May 3, 2:16am  

"Is that why you need a new boning knife? Kid-kabobs?"

No...that was for chopping up kittens and fuzzy bunnies. :twisted:

32   DinOR   2006 May 3, 2:38am  

Wasn't it MI that passed something like the "motor voter" where a penny per gallon goes into a fund so that everyone has at least basic liability? Wouldn't this be more fair?

33   astrid   2006 May 3, 2:42am  

newsfreak,

I'm Chinese. I'll eat everything with two legs except people and everything with four legs but chairs/tables. :)

34   Joe Schmoe   2006 May 3, 2:44am  

It is a major PITA to sharpen a knife with a whetstone. Take it from a former Eagle Scout who has sharpened many, many knives and axe heads. I got one of those machines from Chef's Catalog to sharpen my kitchen knives and never even considered using a stone. It'd take a couple of hours, minimum, to sharpen all of the knives in the block with a three-stone system. To keep a decent edge you'd have to do that at least three or four times a year, and probably more.

Whetstones take a long, long time. You also have to get the angle of the blade in relation to the surface of the stone exactly right; if you don't, you will make a second edge. You have to keep the stone oiled, too, but not too oiled. I have never been completely successful at this; I either end up inadvertently making a really sharp second edge or getting only mediocre results when sharpening the original edge.

The knives don't stay sharp for very long, either. As Newsfreak said, carbon steel holds an edge much better, and you can do a pretty good job sharpening it with a stone, but those knives are very hard to find these days. It is hard to find a new carbon steel hunting knife, much less a kitchen knife, though someone probably makes them. I would recommend the machine for anything other than carbon steel, using a stone is just too much trouble on modern stainless knives.

35   Peter P   2006 May 3, 2:57am  

I’m Chinese. I’ll eat everything with two legs except people and everything with four legs but chairs/tables.

Why not people?

36   DinOR   2006 May 3, 3:49am  

Just an observation:

It wasn't all that long ago, that for all the "hard evidence" we had in our hip pocket that there was in fact a bubble, that it had the potential to burst and there was a very real possibility it would be a hard landing, we really didn't know. As a group we may have had our suspicions but until the last few months, a lot of smoke but very little fire. Now that the data, the mainstream media and the mainstream itself has reached the point of no return yeah, I'm now totally comfortable discussing the finer points of kitchen utensils.

Joe Schmoe,

When using a whetstone try using a "blade guide". These inexpensive plastic blade guides ensure that you're sharpening the implement at just the right angle plus they clean up with soap and water after use! After a pleasant evening preparing a "chef quality" meal they are STILL sharp enough to slash through the toughest steel belted realtor's tires! The perfect end to the perfect evening.

37   astrid   2006 May 3, 3:56am  

ps,

I finally realized you weren't joking about your knives.

I'm not sure if these are the ones you've mentioned but they look so pretty!

http://www.japanesechefsknife.com/HDSeries.html

38   DinOR   2006 May 3, 3:58am  

Oh and when you get home after a little "carousing" your blade will still be sharp enough to cut even the most ripe tomatoes!

39   astrid   2006 May 3, 4:00am  

My post got moderated so I'll try again:

“Why not people?”

I was repeating an old saying, though I wouldn’t eat people for sanitary purposes. I might get a brain rotting prion.

40   astrid   2006 May 3, 4:00am  

re: knives and other stuff

I found this site. I’m guess a lot of you already know about it.

http://www.cookingforengineers.com/article.php?id=39

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