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Mortgage Backed Securities

By someone else following x   2006 Oct 9, 10:26am 15,657 views   253 comments   watch   nsfw   quote     share    


Ultimately, most of the money that financed the bubble is owed to the owners of mortgage-backed securities. What are these securities? Who owns them? Do these investors realize the risk?

It would be very interesting to see graphs of mortgage-backed bonds trading. Does anyone know the ticker symbols for these bonds and a free way to look up the graphs?

Patrick

#housing

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214   DinOR   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 5:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Any time I'm watching a movie or TV show it always amazes me when our hero exits a still whirling chopper walking tall and defiant! Helicopters (particularly rotor blades) are much more sensitive to crosswinds than fixed wing A/C. I was an "LSE" (Landing Signalman "Enlisted") in the Navy and I've seen crosswinds dip rotor blades down to about 4' off the deck. On a guy about 5' 10" that would decapitate you at the arm pits.

Anytime I entered or left the "rotor arc" I kept as low to the ground as possible! Tunnel strikes are also common (although more for rotor blades being "out of sync") than crosswinds but that can ruin your whole day too.

*Not in the NATOPS (Naval Aviation Training and Operational Proceedures) Manual but if you are near or within the rotor arc and the damn thing goes into "ground resonance" (meaning Robert's garage sale is coming apart) run TO not FROM the aircraft! Centrifugal force has a nasty tendency to throw things out, not in! Just in case you ever find yourself in that position.

215   requiem   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 5:55am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The one thing airships had going for them was size; as I recall, the Hindenburg even had a grand piano in one of its salons for a time. (Or is this a case of simply not putting as many people on board? Anyone know the available square footage on the H versus a 747?)

What I'm waiting for is good software control and miniaturized control surfaces. A couple years ago I was sitting in a survey class on MEMS devices, and the lecturer mentioned a drone using only MEMS devices to alter the airflow (as in, no conventional moving control surfaces) and pulling insane turns. (6-12' turning radius at 60-80mph was the example given.)

217   DinOR   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 6:09am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Oh and my other favorite Hollywood myth.

Aircraft in flight build up static electricity! Lots. I've read studies where up to 10,000 volts are possible. Any time a helo is being used for "Vert-Rep" (Vertical Replenishment) a GROUNDING CABLE must be used! Just a "J-Hook" with an alligator clip attached snugly to a "pad-eye" on the steel/concrete deck will do. This discharges the static charge to "ground". Once discharged you can go on about your business unless of course you lose contact and need to re-establish ground. Especially true of "HIFR" (Helicopter In Flight Re-fueling) ya think?

True, the amperage is low but it will still definitely wake you up! One time we had a tie-down chain and "someone" had to get it off a hovering H-46. (I guess I was cheaper to Uncle Sam than an H-46!) Not fun, and when your muscles contract it's hard to let go.

218   Peter P   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 6:12am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

www.moller.com/skycar/

Yep. It is very close to UC Davis. I have heard about it before.

How do we avoid mid-air collision with thousands of them in the air? I think it can replace small GA planes though.

219   DinOR   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 6:13am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

During "Night Ops" you'll see a small arc like a little lightening bolt jump from the helo to the deck. Normally you won't notice w/ a fighter jet b/c when the tailhook hits it leaves a trail of sparks and you're running for your life anyway.

220   Randy H   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 6:32am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

RC,

Nobody gives a flying fling at a rolling doughnut that I’m posting from a shed in Camarillo. The poor smuck that bough my 10yr futures last night at the closing price probably wants to send me a letter bomb but freakin’ CBOE or NYC had nothing to do with my coup but they’ll still take the credit for being necessary to complete my market transactions.

It will be a very long time yet until these specific types of high-value industries become physically decentralizable. Sure, the technical market mechanisms can and largely already are decentralized. But the nexus of the high finance industry is people and relationships. The paradox has been that as more communications technology has been developed, even more reliance has been placed upon physically proximate relationships.

Even this too may pass with time. But much more time than you are imagining. Perhaps, someday, everyone will jack into their "Second Life 2060" virtual reality, and conduct meaningful, binding relationships and pacts of trust without needing to actually sit at the same table in the same room of the same building.

I'm not going to hold my breath. I still have to fly to Chicago, San Antonio, and probably soon Atlanta every time I need to advance or close a deal in telecom with the corporate guys. Why do they need to see me? Well. They think they do, therefore they do, and therefore I go.

221   requiem   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 6:33am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

How do we avoid mid-air collision with thousands of them in the air?

You wait a week, then fly over the wreckage.

RC, SFGuy:
RC's comments on the Moynihan Myth notwithstanding, I don't see why the idea SFGuy has in mind wouldn't work. The only real problem you'd run into is transportation; being able to get raw materials, finished goods, people, what have you, from place to place in a reasonable time. I think it's easily doable if properly planned, and may happen anyway if unplanned, just with a great deal more growing pains.

222   DinOR   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 6:40am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

J Galt,

Fun stuff! That's why I always cringe when H'Wood shows some macho dude grabbing a hoisting cable and connecting it an oil derrick leaving the chopper like a fly tied to a hair! Besides, the crew chief has a "guillotine" activated by a 22 cal. round that will sever that cable if he even "thinks" it's "fouled" (tangled up). Yeah, they thought of that. Sheesh.

223   requiem   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 6:40am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I still have to fly to Chicago, San Antonio, and probably soon Atlanta every time I need to advance or close a deal in telecom with the corporate guys. Why do they need to see me? Well. They think they do, therefore they do, and therefore I go.

The generational parts of this will change. The only reason I can see for a face-to-face is when you quietly want to hammer out some details, or initially to get a feel for another person. Teams I've worked with just throw up a telecon and secure IRC server and everything's just peachy.

224   skibum   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 6:51am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

@TimeSaver,

Cupertino Address! Cupertino Schools! Lowest priced home in the entire city of Cupertino at the time of listing! 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bathroom, Single Story, Approximately 814 SF, Fireplace in Living Room. This is a "fixer upper" Needs cosmetic work. Probate sale...

Yeah baby! talk about "cosmetic work!" That's like saying Joan Rivers has had "cosmetic work."

225   DinOR   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 6:52am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Robert Cote'

When I was a boot camp I found $600 in an envelope that dated back to 1967 carefully hidden in a NATOPS manual!

(I've read every one ever since!)

I'd heard that some of the "virtual providers" (Island, BRUT, Archipeligo etc.) were having problems? Order flow, etc? I'd also heard BRUT got stung w/ a nasty fine. Oh and these "OATS" infractions have just gotta stop! I ALSO read the NASD Monthly Enforcement Actions the 1st of every month and this has gotten out of hand! (None of you guys are NASD Regulators are you?)

226   DinOR   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 6:57am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

TimeSaver,

Oh for the days of the "America's Overpriced RE Blog"!

That may actually have taken the cake! Funny how the recycling containers "dwarf" the freakin house! In fact just calling their sordid little event an "Open House" is nothing short of comical. Good on ya!

227   Peter P   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 7:04am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Transportation will continue to be a problem until we achieve teleportation.

Teleportation has severe philosophical issues.

228   Peter P   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 7:22am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I’m confident we’ll find a way around its philosophical ones too!

Oh really? The issue will be as fundamental as existence itself.

Is teleportation about the destruction and reconstruction of objects? Will the soul be "transported" safely? Many issues.

229   Randy H   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 7:33am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Is teleportation about the destruction and reconstruction of objects? Will the soul be “transported” safely? Many issues.

I sold my soul forward on the futures market years ago, so I'll volunteer to give it a try. Just keep house flies out of the portapod chamber.

By the way, didn't someone like Michio Kaku calculate that the amount of computing energy alone required to reassemble the human brain at a quantum level would be about equal to the total output of energy from a small galaxy? Maybe it was just a sun. I forget.

I'll worry about this in about 150,000 more years of progressive technological advancement.

230   Peter P   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 7:42am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Philosophical issues aside, teleportation may put UPS and FedEx out of business.

231   Doug H   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 7:48am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Plane had parachute.....it's a new safety feature being installed to allow pilots to break a stall if they aren't able to using piloting skills....not a bad thing and a pretty good example of one guy finding a cheap solution to a big problem. They don't work well when you fly into a building though......

The pilot had his ticket for just a few months and that qualifies him as the most dangerous person in the air. You get your license and think you can fly, do something stupid, and die.

In NYC, you screw up, crash, and they pick up the pieces. In the PacNW, you crash, you die, and they don't find the pieces because the animals eat them. Hey, DinOR, remember that idiot who went camping, got up to take a piss in the middle of the night, fell off a cliff, and is suing the Feds for not having warning signs in the wilderness?

Don't get me started on flying stories because I'll never shutup.

232   HARM   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 7:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

fyi: Turns out the pilot was probably Yankees pitcher Cory Lidle. Personally, my money was on Mark Foley (suicide/blaze-of-glory thing), so I lose.

Btw, there's now a pro-Casey poster named "astrid-hater".

233   DinOR   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 7:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Doug H,

You don't want to get me started either! I'm just now learning of the details so I don't want to go off but it doesn't surprise me it's a rookie pilot. Obviously the standards applied by the FAA to pilot an aircraft need to be reviewed.

BUT the FAA serves everyone up as the sacrificial lamb b/c they are NEVER wrong! It's always the air traffic guy, the pilot, the mechanic that's at fault. Never their policies and proceedures.

234   DinOR   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 7:59am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

astrid,

You may now do your little "victory dance" around your chair!

235   OO   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 8:18am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Back to the topic, is there any official source documenting who the bagholders are for MBS? I heard it was China, but I highly doubt the claim, since I just discovered that about 10% of my PIMCO foreign bond fund (unhedged) seems to be in FNMA, FHLC and some MBS stuff.

I certainly hope that it is not the Americans who are holding this stinking bag, we already have a lot to hold at this point.

236   FormerAptBroker   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 8:22am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Robert Cote Says:

> The failure to understand Prop 13 is surely a
> growth industry.

Most people like me that think Prop. 13 is unfair understand it (I have read every word many times).

> Anyone here have a problem with State limits
> on maximum income tax rates or sales taxes?

I would like to not only limit income taxes and sales taxes I would like to “eliminate” them (and scale back the government so all it does is defend our borders and run our courts).

> Prop 13 applies equally to everyone regardless
> of age or denomination.

No it does not. Some people pay 20 times more year after year in property taxes for the same city services…

> Anyone here comfortable with changing the Sales tax
> such that you are expected to pay 8.25% of what the
> highest price anyone has or will have paid for equivalent
> items?

I don’t think many people would complain if the one time “transfer tax” was based on the sale price as long as everyone paid the same taxes going forward. Would it be fair if I bought a Honda 10 years ago and was paying $100 a year (increasing by 2% a year) to register it with the DMV and someone who just moves to the state and buys a similar 10 year old Honda has to pay $2,000 a year (increasing by 2% a year) to register it with the DMV and drive on the same roads?

237   HARM   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 8:46am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

@Jon,

Rent control --like so many other attempts by government to mitigate risk and/or inject "fairness" into the marketplace for certain select groups-- ends up creating at least a couple of huge moral hazards that are worse than the "problem" it was trying to solve (poor people being priced out of their existing rentals). I'd recommend re-reading Peter P's & FAB's takes on the matter, but to summarize:

1. It dis-incentivizes HBs & RE investors from building/funding new rental construction (because rent hikes cannot even keep pace with inflation, much less demographic changes in the marketplace, gentrification, etc.). Up until recently, Santa Monica had among the toughest iron-clad rent control laws in the country, and as a result, basically no new rental stock was built in nearly 30 years. And guess what happens when supply is strangled for over a generation?

2. Over time, artificial rent caps creates huge imbalances (see FAB's examples) where older renters pay almost zilch thanks to inflation, while new renters must pay market rate. Many old-timers will also arbitrage their indirect rent subsidy in illegal (but almost impossible to police) ways, such as informally sub-letting their rent controlled apartments. This is basically creating a black market, where actual rents eventually rise to the market rate anyhow.

You can apply the same government mis-pricing arguments against minimum wage, argricultural subsidies, Prop. 13, etc. Accurately pricing commodities or labor better than the free market can does not seem to be government's strong suit.

238   astrid   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 8:48am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

There's no need for rent control. If you want stability, pay a premium and sign a really really long lease.

HARM and DinOR,

I saw that. I didn't understand why I got singled out, since the comment had nothing to do with anything I said.

It must be my sparkling online personality.

239   Randy H   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 8:53am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The practical reason income taxation cannot likely ever be eliminated is Constitutional. I have been a pure use/sale tax advocate for many years. The unfortunate practical truth, however, is that any elimination or even dramatic flattening or reduction of income taxation will only result in states co-opting Federal taxation with more State taxation. And the Federal gov't cannot legally prevent this without an amendment to the US Constitution, which, by the way, 3/4 of States have to ratify, and very few of those by direct popular vote. So it ain't gonna happen, as much as it would be the right answer. Oh, and the Federal gov't will have lost any "encouragement power" they might have had once they no longer have Federal tax revenues to dribble back to the states in return for their obedience. So again, it won't happen.

240   Randy H   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 9:02am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

allah,

That's exactly why I [very seriously] offerred to buy one ticket. He failed to respond, by the way.

There are some pretty distinct rules about conflict of interest participants in such raffles, when they are legal. You know, the "no employees or family" kind of stuff.

I know I'd lose my $50. But for another $15? (it used to be $15, not sure now) I can at least drag his ass into small claims court for entertainment value. We can all go have beers at the Marin Brewing Company afterwards.

241   Allah   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 9:18am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Randy,

I hope your not seriously interested in buying a raffle from him! Whether it is legit or not, buying a raffle from him is going against all principles that us bubbleheads believe in! This kid needs to learn a lesson! Why should he get a bail-out, especially from people who have helped make this bubble and destroy alot of our plans all due to greed. Let this kid take his beating like a man! It's like he went to Vegas and lost his nest egg gambling and then went back to the casino and asked, "Please give the money back, I don't know what I was doing, this is all we have", sob story. He knew the risks, now he has to pay the price. Anyone buying a raffle from him is in my opinion, dumber than him!

I wouldn't buy a ticket if I knew I was going to win!

242   Randy H   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 9:33am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

allah,

I have no intention of "winning". In fact, quite the contrary. I am calling his bluff. He won't sell me a ticket because, if he does, then I'll have standing to demand performance or sue for it. And if I could actually get myself directly harmed by his scam, even for a paltry $50, then I could forward that to his DA with a complaint that he's running illegal real estate drawings for properties he doesn't even really owned.

If I'm lucky, I can catch him trying to beat me up on camera and get it on Fox news. lol.

243   Allah   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 9:41am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

That's what I thought.....but don't give him $50 regardless, buy your Wife something nice instead, or your kid. He will probably be in jail around this time next year and I know he has alot of fans in jail (if you know what I mean).

244   Peter P   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 9:51am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

astrid, is your food blog down?

245   Peter P   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 9:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Is his raffle legal? If not, is buying a ticket illegal per se?

If I’m lucky, I can catch him trying to beat me up on camera and get it on Fox news. lol.

LOL :lol:

246   Allah   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 10:04am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

If I’m lucky, I can catch him trying to beat me up on camera and get it on Fox news. lol.

I can tell he doesn't have any balls so this won't happen, but his Wife might! :lol:

247   Allah   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 10:09am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

(I think it is still overpriced, but it really seems like the asking is lower than other recent places)

Patience SFW, another year or so you will be saying "I can't believe a couple of years ago I thought the price (several hundred thousand more) wasn't too bad, good thing I didn't buy back the!".

btw - I bet that plasma you see in the picture was purchase with home equity!

248   Peter P   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 10:26am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

RE: that house in Cow Hollow

It has power cables everywhere outside.

249   astrid   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 10:55am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Peter P,

Yeah, the front page is down but I can still access the contents.

http://greencrabs.blogspot.com/2006/10/baking-books.html

I'm going to do some lateral thinking on this and hope something works.

250   e   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 11:49am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

You just think making people pay 1% if they buy now is unfair to the 1% people compared the people sometimes paying 1.8% on their purchases.

If they don't like having been screwed like that, and now paying $600 a year while the new neighbor pays $6000 a year, they could sell and buy again. :)

251   astrid   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 12:10pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

SQT,

Thanks, the front page is back on.

I didn't realize the moderation was on either. Oops!

I made both you and Peter P administrators, so please feel free to make changes, add people or do anything else you'd like.

For anyone else interested, my(our) new food blog is at http://greencrabs.blogspot.com/

If you like what you see (or don't like what you see and want to make changes) and would like to contribute (as much or as little as you like), please let me know and I'll email you an invite.

252   Different Sean   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 11, 1:12pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

hey, they've already perfected teleportation:

CNN.com - Scientists teleport two different objects

i wonder if you could then use the same technology to photocopy people?

i've been working on a noiseless, rotorless anti-gravity machine in my spare time for a while now... it's working pretty well, it just takes a while to set the spring...

253   speedingpullet   ignore (0)   2006 Oct 12, 4:59am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

..what?
You're not using the ultra-new 'hamster in a wheel' technology?

That's what my PC runs on. Oh, and a backup using rubber bands.

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