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Election '06


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2006 Nov 7, 4:45am   29,902 views  331 comments

by Randy H   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Election 2006 is underway. I'd like to ask for how people think the outcome will affect housing. But I know better, so ... have at it.

I do request that this thread remain free of name-calling. I reserve the right to delete any comment which takes the form of "all cheese is smelly". All opinions are welcome. Shouting and spitting are not.

And for the record, I am neither liberal nor conservative, republican nor democrat. I voted accordingly, which while satisfying emotionally, has the practical effect of doing nothing more other than getting me queued up for jury duty.

--Randy H

#housing

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1   speedingpullet   2006 Nov 7, 4:51am  

As I forgot to re-register after to moving from West L.A to Van Nuys, the whole thing is moot to me.

Also, after watching "Hacking Democracy" (as mentioned in the previous thread), I wonder if anyone's votes today will be represenatative.

2   Peter P   2006 Nov 7, 4:52am  

If the Dem wins and the national minimum wage is raised, the resulting inflation will soften the blow of housing market correction in many places.

However, California already has a higher minimum, so the effects here should be minimal.

If unions are given more power, the economy will suffer and a recession will become more likely and more severe.

3   Peter P   2006 Nov 7, 4:54am  

Also, any Iraq strategy should not be emotional.

4   DinOR   2006 Nov 7, 5:03am  

Let's be honest here. Does anyone really give a rip which way OR votes? Even in a Pres. cycle it's over before we get off work. For us it's about getting your licks in on local issues. Like voting for: Water and Soil Conservation (Position 2).

Let us further admit that neither party will be able to do a damn thing about the HB or it's aftermath.

5   e   2006 Nov 7, 5:27am  

I watched today as someone took one of those voting cards you're supposed to insert into the slot at the bottom of the machine, and try to insert it into the graphic that was displayed on screen. Needless to say, the slotless screen didn't accept the card.

Multiple times.

Eventually I had to show him that the slot was at the bottom of the unit.

They should throw out his ballot.

6   e   2006 Nov 7, 5:28am  

I tried to influence the election with my voter's guide...

http://www.burbed.com/2006/10/27/santa-clara-voters-guide-2006-by-burbed/

7   FRIFY   2006 Nov 7, 5:33am  

I hate to say this as a conservative, but I think the Republicans are going to be blamed (rightfully in most cases) for the financial problems that will plague all of us as a country going forward. The party might be out of favor for years to come.

One could hope. As I said on the last post, divided governments tend to restrict the growth of government spending. Clinton balanced the budget with a Republican house.

This time around, Republicans slashed revenue and increased spending ($225M bridge anyone?). This is like a double-dose of debt-driven stimulus for the economy: "More money in taxpayers hands" and "More money in lobbyist hands".

http://zfacts.com/p/318.html

Best outcome: Dems take the Senate as well in 2008. Rudy takes the White House and cleans out the trash.

8   ak268   2006 Nov 7, 5:45am  

With the election cleared out of the way, pretenses can fall and other shoes can drop. Hopefully gravity will finally prevail. The high flying should come home to roost. '07 onward could bring us to years of reckoning, perhaps decades.

9   DinOR   2006 Nov 7, 5:52am  

Voter's Guide:

Loved it!

Seriously though, lending reform is coming regardless. This has been such a huge an undeniable embarrassment there isn't any sweeping it under the carpet. H&R Block found out the hard way (late to the sub-prime lending party) and had loans default before the first payment wasn't made. The FIRST payment! They're now closing down and/or selling off their exposure to this laughable failure.

In OR we vote by mail so the weather shouldn't be a hinderance to our turn-out. If only eburbed* had put a voter's guide together for us!

10   DinOR   2006 Nov 7, 6:01am  

Warning: OT

Allah, Spike 66 and New Yorkers in general!

http://www.katu.com/news/national/4575976.html

(before you go to the polls)

11   skibum   2006 Nov 7, 6:15am  

Well,
I just got back from my voting excursion. All I can say is, the average voter age in my small sample size was about 78 years old. So much for GenX, GenY, or even boomer influence, although the demographics might be a bit younger during the after work hours.

I will tell you that, not to break too much taboo and divulge all my votes, but I basically voted "NO" on every proposition/measure, except 86. IMO, almost every single one of these measures will be a fiscal negative on the budget, including the bond measures. These are just an easy short-term out for the politicos to avoid raising taxes for necessary infrastructure work. However, bond initiatives will cost much, much more in the long run due to servicing costs. 86 gets my vote, since in a world with an imperfect healthcare system, taxing users of cigarettes is one imperfect but effective partial solution.

12   skibum   2006 Nov 7, 6:17am  

@eburbed,

That story is classic. I also checked out your "voter guide." Funny stuff.

13   Bruce   2006 Nov 7, 6:24am  

I agree with George. Regulation to impose accountability came substantially after the S&L and Enron implosions.

I don't imagine the Congress is in a position to have an effect on housing, whatever today's outcome. That wave is already cresting...

14   DinOR   2006 Nov 7, 6:30am  

Slightly OT (but w/political overtones)

Chris Thornberg chatting w/Maria claims that Housing alone can't sink the economy. Good for you Chris. Also had NO IDEA where AG would come up with a statement like "the worst is over for housing"?

While conceding we might be about half way through it he wasn't willing to be so bold.

15   e   2006 Nov 7, 6:37am  

I just got back from my voting excursion. All I can say is, the average voter age in my small sample size was about 78 years old. So much for GenX, GenY, or even boomer influence, although the demographics might be a bit younger during the after work hours.

My voting station was in a retirement home. Now granted, that's just where the station was - but still, it's sort of telling.

Someone should do the following study:

Vote on these 2 issues:
1- Should we spend $50 million on Senior care?
2- Should we spend $50 million on K-12 schools?

Voting Stations:
A- Public school gym
B- Senior citizen center
C- City hall (Control group)

I wonder if there would be statistically significant differences in how people vote versus the venue.

16   FormerAptBroker   2006 Nov 7, 6:39am  

Randy H. wrote:

> And for the record, I am neither liberal nor conservative,
> republican nor democrat. I voted accordingly, which while
> satisfying emotionally, has the practical effect of doing
> nothing more other than getting me queued up for jury
> duty.

And then speedingpullet Says:

> As I forgot to re-register after to moving from West L.A
> to Van Nuys, the whole thing is moot to me.

There is no law that says that you need to register to vote at your home address (G.W. Bush is registered to vote in TX, but lives in DC). If you register to vote at the home of someone you know that has no plans to move any time soon you can become a permanent absentee voter and they will just send a ballot in your name to the address before every election. If you pick someone that lives in another county (say for example if your parents live in San Mateo County) you can check the box that says “I certify under penalty of perjury that I am not currently residing in San Mateo County and are exempt from jury duty” every time a request for jury duty comes in the mail. As far as I know every county in the US will exempt you from jury if you do not currently live in the county. Since a huge number of Americans never bother to register to vote you need to make sure your drivers license has the same address as your voter registration address since the courts also use drivers license lists to send out juror requests…

17   DinOR   2006 Nov 7, 6:41am  

Let's not get down on Gen X/Y just yet. They're still at work. (Somebody has to).

18   skibum   2006 Nov 7, 6:44am  

@DinOR,

Boy, That Thornberg - he cracks me up! I like how he says that with a straight face, given this:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061107/homebuilders_slump.html?.v=4

"2 Major Homebuilders See Orders Dive"

New orders for Beazer fell by 58 percent to 2,064 homes from 4,937 last year, as the housing market continued to slow. It has cut 1,000 jobs, or 25 percent of its work force.

"We think it's a loss of confidence in the buyers," Toll Brothers Chief Executive Robert Toll said during a conference call with analysts Tuesday. "Nobody wants to buy something that they think will cost less two weeks later."

He said at one point he thought the housing market was bumping along at the bottom, but business continued to worsen. Toll noted the company has had two rounds of layoffs, but didn't say how many people were let go.

"I am surprised," Toll said, adding that the downturn seems atypical, given good conditions for housing with low unemployment and interest rates.

Yes, Chris and AG, the worst is over. Thank goodness. Now let's all go out and buy and/or sell a home. It's a great time to buy or sell a home!

Seriously, I am still in the camp of believing a housing/credit downturn of this magnitude can indeed lead to recession. The housing sector IS the "external" influence that pops the bubble. It was a positive feedback loop on the way up, and it will be an accelerating feedback mechanism on the way down.

19   skibum   2006 Nov 7, 6:46am  

@eburbed,

The fact is, either way, it's well established that old people vote in disproportionately larger numbers for their age group, so I doubt your experiment would be as dramatic as you might think.

20   Vicente   2006 Nov 7, 6:46am  

To answer the specific question, our government does not have any real vision about housing as a market to be controlled, in the same way the Fed regulates currency tightly. I would not expect this to change one whit even if the Green Party came to power. Housing market is simply not even on the to-do list for any party.

I'll take another tangent. SHOULD future governments get even more involved than they already are, in the housing market? As it currently stands, government definitely has an effect, albeit not in a coordinated fashion with a single vision and policy document.

Personally, I feel that the current market effectively prices the middle-class out of owning a home in many areas. My parents could afford a middle-class home with a single working parent, I cannot. To be completely selfish about this, a policy that had as it's working target that housing should be "affordable" (yes I know this is too loose on MANY levels) to own would have many long-term benefits despite short-term hardships to specific groups and areas.

21   FormerAptBroker   2006 Nov 7, 6:52am  

skibum Says:

> Well, I just got back from my voting excursion. All I
> can say is, the average voter age in my small sample
> size was about 78 years old. So much for GenX,
> GenY, or even boomer influence

Most people under 78 listen to mp3s (not vinyl), pay by credit card at the store (not checks), pay bills on line (don’t mail checks), and vote absentee (so they don’t have to deal with the old voters at the polls chatting with the even older poll workers every election day)…

22   Peter P   2006 Nov 7, 7:00am  

It was a positive feedback loop on the way up, and it will be an accelerating feedback mechanism on the way down.

Reflexivity.

23   DinOR   2006 Nov 7, 7:26am  

skibum,

Don't ruin this for me! I used to like Thornberg, now......? Wouldn't it be a shame (after totally stealing the limelight for the last 5 years) if housing winds up dragging the rest of us down with it?

We get led around by the "boo-boo" for 5 freaking years and for all of our saving, investing and employing some pretty sophisticated hedging techniques get body slammed anyway? If for no other reason we should at least hear CT out.

24   DinOR   2006 Nov 7, 7:32am  

Borrowing fell by 1.2 bil in Sept. The biggest drop since April 1992 (the FED reports). Uh...... maybe we ARE screwed. I'd read that MEW YTD has been greater than for all of 2005. Lord just give me one last Xmas!

25   skibum   2006 Nov 7, 7:38am  

@DinOR,

C'mon, let's not be SOOO negative! Like ConfusedRealtwhore says, "Just wondering, with all the doom and gloom on the board, anybody notice the Melt UP in the stock market and the 4.4% unemployment rate?

Could it be that the economy isn’t imploding?" LIFE IS GOOD! (Unless you're currently a realtor).

26   Doug H   2006 Nov 7, 8:25am  

Forget what damage they will do to the housing market; what about the whole freakin' country?!

FIRE THEM ALL!

I've been a staunch Republican all my life and I've decided to sit this one out. I cannot, in good conscience, vote for either party. Before anyone goes off on "Don't vote; don't complain" lecture.....save it. You are wasting bandwidth.

This is one election where your only choice is the "evil of two lessers".

27   requiem   2006 Nov 7, 8:42am  

Being in California, I'm mostly watching the propositions and Congressional elections in other states. It also means that we still have a duty to go out and squash bad propositions, even if we don't like the candidates for elected positions.

28   skibum   2006 Nov 7, 8:59am  

If anyone has a chance to catch it, Market Place on NPR this evening has a piece on the horrible numbers put out by the HB's today and its potential impact on the economy. More MSM dissemination! In fact, this venue probably gets better play in bubble states, as bubble states probably = NPR listener-heavy states.

29   e   2006 Nov 7, 9:02am  

Personally, I feel that the current market effectively prices the middle-class out of owning a home in many areas. My parents could afford a middle-class home with a single working parent, I cannot. To be completely selfish about this, a policy that had as it’s working target that housing should be “affordable” (yes I know this is too loose on MANY levels) to own would have many long-term benefits despite short-term hardships to specific groups and areas.

I think there's a bigger question at play here - is government responsible that you have water, food, energy... or housing?

Some days I think so.

Some days I don't think so.

I guess I'm confused.

30   skibum   2006 Nov 7, 9:08am  

Some days I think so.

Some days I don’t think so.

I guess I’m confused.

@eburbed,

That makes you a confused renter, doesn't it?

31   StuckInBA   2006 Nov 7, 9:23am  

Skibum,

Now you are engaging in name-calling and violating threadmaster's rules. I request Randy to remove your comments towards eburbed.

32   astrid   2006 Nov 7, 9:23am  

Guliani is a scumbag. I'd much rather have a president Mike Bloomberg.

I'm not voting this year.

33   skibum   2006 Nov 7, 9:33am  

Now you are engaging in name-calling and violating threadmaster’s rules. I request Randy to remove your comments towards eburbed.

At least I'm not calling him a ... REALTOR (tm) ...

he he he

34   Peter P   2006 Nov 7, 9:36am  

Guliani is a scumbag. I’d much rather have a president Mike Bloomberg.

Bill Gates would be the best!

35   skibum   2006 Nov 7, 9:47am  

Speaking of Realtors (tm), looks like the johnny-come-lately types in their ranks (like ConfusedRealtor) are screwed:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/07/real_estate/brokers_experience/index.htm?postversion=2006110716

"Real estate: Babes in bear land"

Most Realtors haven't been in the business long enough to see anything but a boom market, and the current slump is new to all but a handful of industry veterans.

36   HARM   2006 Nov 7, 9:51am  

Great housing article just posted on CNN:

Real estate: Babes in bear land
Most Realtors haven't been in the business long enough to see anything but a boom market, and the current slump is new to all but a handful of industry veterans.

Just more than half of members of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) had four years or less of experience in a 2005 survey - which means they came into this year's real estate downturn knowing nothing but boom times.

...Home sales set record after record from 2001 through 2005, as prices rose to record levels as well. But the pace of sales is off 14 percent so far this year and the year-over-year change in existing home prices has fallen in the past two monthly reports from NAR.

That's the first time there has been a decline in that key price measure in 11 years - not even one in three Realtors today was around back then.

..."If you're able to make $100,000 selling a house rather than $50,000 everyone and their cousin wants to be a broker," he said. "All that demand to be brokers is caused by the fact that the commission structure is fixed. Commissions should be plummeting from 6 to 4 to 2 percent because it's not."

37   skibum   2006 Nov 7, 9:53am  

Hey HARM,

Looks like we both posted links to that article at about the same time. Great article, eh? Relatively non-NAR cheerleader-ish, although their commentary is from that REIC shill masquerading as an academic, Nicholas Restinas.

38   astrid   2006 Nov 7, 9:53am  

"why?"

exhibit 1: Bernard Kerik

exhibit 2: Guiliani Partners

exhibit 3: how he hooked up with the current missus

He's plenty corrupt. I prefer Spitzer or even Pataki over Guiliani.

39   skibum   2006 Nov 7, 9:56am  

@astrid,

I tend to agree about his (lack of) moral compass. He seems to me like an opportunist who happened to be at the right place at the right time (NYC, 9/11). I will say that he did appear to do a good job with reducing crime in NYC during his tenure, although I always wonder how much of that was secondary to a good overall (national) economy and its effect on reducing crime and general discontent during the 90's.

40   e   2006 Nov 7, 9:59am  

I will say that he did appear to do a good job with reducing crime in NYC during his tenure, although I always wonder how much of that was secondary to a good overall (national) economy and its effect on reducing crime and general discontent during the 90’s.

Right before September 11th though, Rudy's popularity was definitely on the wane. The series of police shootings/raping-with-a-broomstick really left a mark.

As a New York-American I found what Ray Nagin had to say (comparing Katrina to September 11th) offensive - but to some degree he was right. September 11th happened, and then it was over. New Orleans drowned.

Very mixed feelings.

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