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Solving the bubble problem for good


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2007 Jan 31, 1:53pm   9,298 views  45 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

How do we do that? Will one of these work?

* Do nothing
* Make some land
* Outlaw NIMBYism
* Repeal Prop 13
* Build high-rise condos
* Chase away population
* Require a minimum of 80% BMR units
* Eliminate the BMR program
* Convert asteroids to home'roids
* ...

Any other creative solutions?

#bubbles

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1   Different Sean   2007 Jan 31, 3:28pm  

There ya go...

2   Different Sean   2007 Jan 31, 3:29pm  

I listed some of my solutions, and was gonna start a thread on it, but I always get shot down in flames... :cry:

3   DinOR   2007 Jan 31, 9:56pm  

Well I think we all know where "I" stand on the issue!

We just need to be more like the Swiss and every thing will take care of itself!

Seriously though, unless and until we do away (or seriously modify) the cap gains exemption the typical loanowner is doomed. If this is really about serving basic shelter needs and long term investment why are so many freaking potential buyers on the sidelines?

ENTRY POINT!

Let's give these people "some" credit? They now realize how MEW/TFF (Tax Free Flip (TM)) works! And doesn't! Do any of us really believe that potential buyers are sitting on their tookas b/c they've done the calculations and realize that getting a 10k price reduction will lower their payment by $8.37 a month?

NO! As a nation of specuvestors we now know that the "real money" doesn't come from your job! It comes from MEW/TFF, duh. Of course they're working off the assumption that there will be an immediate return to the "normal market" of 10-30% annual appreciation from their newly established entry point.

Congress created it, NAR embraced it, start liking it.

4   DinOR   2007 Jan 31, 10:04pm  

Spike66,

Not to knit pick but that would actually be "re-publish" M3!

Excellent post!

5   DinOR   2007 Jan 31, 10:41pm  

And what's up with ya'll's mayor?

Kimberly Guilfoyle may have an annoying voice but somehow I think I could get over it? My wife insists she's had a lot of "work" done. Weird huh?

6   SFWoman   2007 Jan 31, 11:03pm  

DinOR,

Gavin's taste in women is a little odd. The socially ambitious, Scientologists, friends' wives. He dated a local Pac. Heights girl for a few years, broke up with her, then she ran off and married Don Johnson. I think it affected him.

Maybe he'll enter rehab, like everyone else in the US.

FAB,

It's odd, but my friend's parents, astoundingly brilliant mother and father, (married over 50 years) also have a weekend place in Sea Ranch. Maybe it's actually a think tank that nobody knows about?

7   SFWoman   2007 Jan 31, 11:21pm  

For the 21st month in a row the savings rate in the US is negative.

"Economists have put forward various reasons to explain the current lack of savings. These range from a feeling on the part of some people that they do not need to save because of the run-up in their investments such as homes and stock portfolios to an effort by many middle-class wage earners to maintain their current lifestyles even though their wage gains have been depressed by the effects of global competition."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070201/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

8   DinOR   2007 Jan 31, 11:31pm  

SFWoman,

Funny to note that the only four years in history where the savings rate was negative for an entire year was 1932, 1933 and OF COURSE 2005 and 2006!

I suppose I can find it in my heart to understand the neg. savings in '32 and '33, uh....? But '05 and '06? First it was because we were too poor, now it's because we're too "rich"?

What can I say? Heterosexuality is an affliction that strikes down 1 in 3 males! Every time Kimberly Guilfoyle comes on the screen my wife points out that she was a Victoria's Secret model and ALL of the work she's had done so I can honestly say that I've never heard a word she's said.

Yes, I know dear.

9   FormerAptBroker   2007 Jan 31, 11:50pm  

DinOR Says:

> And what’s up with ya’ll’s mayor?

I have no idea, and for some strange reason I kind of feel sorry for the guy. I’ve always got the feeling that never wanted to run for office but only did it to try and get his Dad (who ran for office but never won) to accept him. I know a lot of guys like Gavin who had a Dad walk out of their life when they were little kids and no matter what happens later they are always trying to get the Dad to accept them…

> Kimberly Guilfoyle may have an annoying voice
> but somehow I think I could get over it? My wife
> insists she’s had a lot of “work” done. Weird huh?

Kimberly is another example of someone is screwed up due to the loss of a parent. In her case Mom died when she was a kid. I know SF girls that went to Grammar School and Mercy High with her and they said that she “kind of went wild” after losing her Mom (and they also agree with your wife that she has had a “lot of work done” including, but not limited to boobs and lips)…

10   FormerAptBroker   2007 Jan 31, 11:54pm  

michaelcampion Says:

> Finally what are BRM units?

BMR stands for “Below Market Rate” and they are units in a new development that are sold for tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars below market.

Politicians love BMR units since they can use them to reward campaign workers and other politically connected people without actually paying them.

11   DinOR   2007 Jan 31, 11:58pm  

"including, but not limited to"

You mean there's MORE? (Dear Lord)

12   DinOR   2007 Feb 1, 12:11am  

michaelcampion,

I'm sure you've posted before but WELCOME anyway!

Talk about the Fed becoming irrelevant, NOT ONE post commented on the their decision to rollover and play dead yesterday? Was there a post? In any regard they've more or less signaled FB's and the lending industry that they'll probably be "on hold" for '07! Translation?

If you're an FB in a neg. am/ARM "Here's your window to re-fi (or buy or sell) your home ONE LAST TIME!" If you're a subprime lender, "Fellas, we're doing our best here". Mortgage Implode does a great job documenting some of the more high profile meltdowns but according "Thug in Chief" bankster "Uncle Angelo" 3 or 4 smaller "Subshops" (TM) are going under A DAY! We're going to have an "orderly correction" even if it kills the rest of us. More REIC "charity".

13   HeadSet   2007 Feb 1, 12:44am  

"Every time Kimberly Guilfoyle comes on the screen my wife points out that she was a Victoria’s Secret model"

OK, DinOR, it is misplaced modifier time (oh why did English lose the dative case?). Who is the Victoria's Secret model, Kimberly Guifoyle or your wife?

14   DinOR   2007 Feb 1, 1:16am  

Headset,

LOL! I fear I fall under SFWoman's description of long time husbands that shop for their wives based on what they looked like when we first married them! She still looks great thanks (and remarkbly without the considerable "work" of our friend Kimberly!)

15   DinOR   2007 Feb 1, 1:20am  

michaelcampion,

F@cked Borrower. As a matter we have an entire web-site dedicated to it!

16   GammaRaze   2007 Feb 1, 2:14am  

Take the government out of the picture.

No more tax-breaks for mortgage interest,

no more ridiculous zoning and other control measures that artificially create scarcity

and no more quasi-government organizations to promote "home buying".

17   DinOR   2007 Feb 1, 2:33am  

Sriram G!

That's why you make the big bucks!

18   GammaRaze   2007 Feb 1, 2:35am  

DinOR,

I donno what you mean, I am probably missing a cultural reference?

I make good money, but it is salary in the Bay Area so I end up with just a little bit left over every year.

In my ignorance, I'm just going to assume that was a compliment of some kind :)

19   SFWoman   2007 Feb 1, 3:08am  

DinOR,

She wasn't a Victoria's Secret model. I have a friend who cast most of the models for them and he had never heard of her before the dog mauling case.

She modelled some underwear in a bridal expo or something. She's only about 5'5" but always is in 5" heels. Once I was at the park in a pair of Keds and she and Gavin came over and said hello to a couple of my friends and me. I towered over her and she was wearing clogs with about a 2 1/2" heel. I hadn't noticed how short she was before that because she is alway, always in full makeup and stilettos.

20   DinOR   2007 Feb 1, 3:27am  

Sriram G,

"no more quasi-government organization to promote "home buying"

That rates the "big bucks"!

21   Peter P   2007 Feb 1, 3:34am  

There’s an economic theory that credit doesn’t create asset bubbles but that it’s the other way around. Once the asset inflates, the credit is suddenly invented out of thin air.

Credit inflates asset prices, which create more credit.

Reflexivity.

22   DinOR   2007 Feb 1, 3:37am  

SFWoman,

If you think that annoys you, try being a 5' 9" and "settling" male. I just love when you're being escorted by the receptionist (with heels so high she's struggling to hold herself upright) into the conference room for your client meeting!

Crissakes lady, if "I" had 5" "lifts" we could almost be eye to eye!

23   Joe Schmoe   2007 Feb 1, 3:59am  

I don't find her attractive at all. That big jaw with all those teeth always make me think of a...dentata. Scary. Also, her skin has a really fake sheen. It is probably natural but I do not care for it. And her body? Eh. Lots of women look just as good.

Also, the whole bi-coastal marriage thing really turned me off. It's like, how self-absorbed can you be? And then she goes and gets knocked up by some rich heir several years her junior. Very disturbing to see Gen-X'ers acting like Boomers.

24   DinOR   2007 Feb 1, 4:52am  

"Somebody's got issues...." LOL!

I think GC might have gotten on the wrong tangent there. I was speaking from a "sales perspective"!?!

You're being introduced to a prospective client for the first time and their first impression is, "Crissakes, I hope he's a genius b/c he's too old to be a "wizz kid" and "Kelli" our receptionist could probably take him!" When you do a fair amount of "cold walking" I guess you get used to it. My point (if there is one) is that while 5' 9" (formerly 5' 10 1/2") is avg. to short for males it is STILL well above avg. height for females! Why is it I'm always the shortest person shaking hands in the lobby? Hmm?

25   Peter P   2007 Feb 1, 4:54am  

Napoleon was short. Yet he has a lot of accomplishments, including the multi-layered dessert named after him.

26   DinOR   2007 Feb 1, 4:54am  

Joe Schmoe,

Hey Joe!

Disturbing indeed. The more I hear the less I like.

27   MtViewRenter   2007 Feb 1, 5:03am  

DinOR,

Why don't you wear heels too, like these: Linky

28   DinOR   2007 Feb 1, 5:13am  

MtViewRenter,

O.K now that was good! LOL!

Yeah, I'm here to discuss your moving your 401K and pay no mind to my Rui Leonardes "heels for men". Yeah that'd go over like a turd in a punchbowl! I thought you were going to show those old ads like in the back of Popular Mechanics that are "guaranteed to add a full 2 inches to your height" (but look like something your HS janitor wore). Uh no thanks.

29   Peter P   2007 Feb 1, 5:17am  

I do have a dirty mind.

Human mind is intrinsically dirty. Don't be too hard on yourself.

30   DinOR   2007 Feb 1, 5:43am  

GC,

Again that's not exactly what I meant either. Meetings of this sort aren't an everyday occurence. In fact they're altogether too rare and there's a lot riding on them.

When you're fortunate to land one, you've straightened your tie, checked your breath by exhaling into your hand (not sure why, it doesn't work) and re-checked your briefcase so "that" is about the LAST thing you're thinking about! If a gal truly is "towering" (chances are she'll wear loafers to play it down) it's just when if it weren't for the "prosthetics" she'd be 2" shorter.... let's just say it's a distraction you can't afford right now!

31   DinOR   2007 Feb 1, 6:23am  

SP,

That's easy! Roseanne Barr NAKED!

32   FormerAptBroker   2007 Feb 1, 6:34am  

DinOR Says:

> try being a 5′ 9″ and “settling” male. I just love when
> you’re being escorted by the receptionist (with heels
> so high she’s struggling to hold herself upright) into
> the conference room for your client meeting!
> Crissakes lady, if “I” had 5″ “lifts” we could almost
> be eye to eye!

If you get some cowboy boots you will be pushing 6’ tall… I have not been riding horses in a long time and this summer before I went to a friend’s family ranch south of Basalt, CO I went to my parent’s house to get my old cowboy boots and I forgot how tall I feel wearing them when I am pushing 6’ 5”…

33   DinOR   2007 Feb 1, 6:54am  

FAB,

I actually know a few reps that do exactly that! Don't they clank too much on terrazo and marble though? That and I'm sure no cowboy.

34   astrid   2007 Feb 1, 7:26am  

GC,

We're going through a real golden age in good quality comedies. A lot of the women are even pretty real looking. Check out the cast of Friday Night Lights or the Office. They're pretty normal looking.

35   Different Sean   2007 Feb 1, 8:18am  

There's a theory that species tend to get larger when they're successful overall... e.g. look at the dinosaurs... 5'9" is meant to be 'exactly average height' for adult males, and 5'6" for women... although I think average height of college graduates is higher, etc...

36   GammaRaze   2007 Feb 1, 8:35am  

Different Sean, does the theory also say that when a species becomes successful, it stands on two legs?

Holds true for us and dinosaurs.

37   Different Sean   2007 Feb 1, 9:05am  

Different Sean, does the theory also say that when a species becomes successful, it stands on two legs?

Note that 'success' is only determined by immediate success in the current environment, whether due to size, speed, armour, choice of food sources, etc. e.g. much of the exotic megafauna of the cenozoic era were wiped out by relatively scrawny homo sapiens working in teams with pointy artificial spears, clubs and sharpened rocks, as they migrated around the world.

they've noted people have gotten significantly bigger based on measurements of medieval popns (skeletons? research), for instance...

However, there's only a loose correlation between bipedalism/standing on hind legs and success, as there are plenty of successful species who don't do that too often or routinely. However, tracking the evolution of the australopithecenes suggests that chimps who could walk more upright east of the Kenyan Rift were more successful in the long run, which then naturally selected for bipedalism -- brain growth seems to have followed upright walking and more successful hunting with extra energy obtained from a higher meat diet, as a. afarensis seems to have had an almost chimp sized 400 cc brain. Overall dexterity, agility and, yes, opposable thumbs, seem to have made all the difference though, making h. sapiens an evolutionarily generalised animal rather than a specialised one.

Further, there were 2-legged and 4-legged dinosaurs, so no, I don't think there is such a theory. The modern descendants of the dinosaurs appear to be birds, which lack manual dexterity, but are 'successful' overall nonetheless, and continue to hop or walk on two legs.

38   Different Sean   2007 Feb 1, 9:09am  

But did you know dinosaurs avidly traded real estate 'millions of years' ago, and there is evidence they had even set up a Housing Futures exchange... it's true... and the Flintstones learnt it from the dinosaurs...

39   HeadSet   2007 Feb 1, 9:18pm  

"There’s a theory that species tend to get larger when they’re successful overall…"

Aren't insects the most sucessful group? Been around since the dinosaurs and apparently will survive anything. No more 4 foot wingspan dragonflies though. Since present day dragonflies prey on mosquitos, can you imagine being the victim of the mosquito a 4 foot wingspan dragonfly would eat? Reminds me of what may happen to savers during a politically expediant FB bailout.

40   Peter P   2007 Feb 2, 12:55am  

With global warming, if the seas rise 7 to 23 inches, what % of land mass will we lose?

But what % of presently iced land mass will we be able to use? :)

Just trying to be optimistic.

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