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Prices and Days On Market

By someone else follow someone else   2008 Jan 13, 11:48pm 18,667 views   305 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


Sale prices are always given as an absolute number, without context. The reality is that falling prices can be masked to some extent by a longer number of days on the market.

Getting $500,000 within a week of listing is not at all the same thing as getting $500,000 after having the house on the market for 2 years, yet both are recorded as the same price. Ultimately, you can pretend your house is worth whatever you want by letting days on market go to infinity -- just pulling it off the market. No one will buy it for your dream price, but you don't have to face the reality that it is not worth what you thought either. Assuming you can pay the mortgage.

Realtors know that increasing days on market proves that a house is not worth the asking price. That's why they commonly try to scam users by re-listing a house as if it just came on the market.



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266   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2008 Jan 16, 2:02pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

How will the free market stop it? The government is small and doesn't have the resources in this problem.

267   Peter P   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 16, 2:06pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Assume it can, and if not hopefully someone would try. Who would it be? A government? Would a heroic corporation lose its wealth knowing it was the only one and there was no compensation?

Perhaps someone should write a novel about this scenario.

To make it more interesting...

Let's say a meteor is to hit Earth in 100 years with 75% certainty. How will humanity react? There may be enough time to develop new technology but the treat may not materialize. What should we do? :)

268   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2008 Jan 16, 2:10pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Peter Paul the libertarian candiate surprises everyone and wins the election. In his first week he eliminates the IRS, and reshapes government to his ideal view. A month later an amateur (no government scientists left) sees the meteor in his telescope. The space program has been cancelled but everything is still there, the auction hasn't happened yet.

What does Peter do?

269   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2008 Jan 16, 2:16pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I can't answer your scenario first because that would help you. I promise I have the solution in my hybrid model.

270   Peter P   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 16, 2:17pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

What does Peter do?

We are doomed! :)

But that is the worst case, right?

271   GallopingCheetah   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 16, 2:19pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        


Do nothing. I mean, really, who cares about the survival of the human race. I expect a lot of sex happening all over the world when people know they're going to be wiped out. Not just with humans, with monkeys, dogs, cats, snakes and ants, too. Many people have secret desires that a meteor will bring to fulfillment. Not long ago, a man in Washington died from having sex with his horse.

272   Peter P   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 16, 2:21pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Perhaps I will fly over to Japan and have a Fugu feast...

274   GallopingCheetah   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 16, 2:22pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I know. Some activities are better than sex.

275   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2008 Jan 16, 2:23pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Ok, you lost my vote :)

My solution under your scenario and probability:

Levy a per capita tax and put it into a specific account. That account will grow each year until the meteor is stopped. Whoever, or whichever corporation stops the meteor gets all of the money as a national prize. I believe in paying for performance.

The probability is irrelevent, just having it on an undisputed course with the Earth is enough of a crisis.

276   Peter P   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 16, 2:25pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Perhaps the scenario is just outside Free Market's "envelope" of capability.

I can bet that all markets will breakdown and we will all revert to the basic mode. It is not going to be pretty.

277   Peter P   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 16, 2:27pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Yuck! Please stop!

278   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2008 Jan 16, 2:29pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Well it is easy to use the normal course of distribution of goods and services to argue the merits of the free market, just as it is easy to use an example outside the norm to illustrate limits. Admittedly it gets kind of tricky in the middle. The distinction in my opinion between political points of view is where you draw the limits.

279   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2008 Jan 16, 2:32pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

In my hybrid model thesis the government never competes with the free market, and happily hands off tasks the free market can take from it. The dilema is that high social need activities tend to be ones that don't generate any return for the private marketplace.

280   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2008 Jan 16, 2:37pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Yet the private markets of course receive the benefits of solving the social problems.

281   Peter P   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 16, 2:38pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

The dilema is that high social need activities tend to be ones that don’t generate any return for the private marketplace.

So the dilemma shall remain... human is the hard problem.

282   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2008 Jan 16, 2:42pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

My opinion, any system would work if the human problem could be solved. Collectivism would work just fine if we didn't mind carrying our share of the work and or didn't resent it when others didn't, or didn't derive satisfaction when others are doing more than us for the same reward.

283   Peter P   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 16, 2:44pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Collectivism would work just fine if we didn’t mind carrying our share of the work and or didn’t resent it when others didn’t, or didn’t derive satisfaction when others are doing more than us for the same reward.

That require qualities we denounced the day Adam ate the apple. :)

284   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2008 Jan 16, 2:47pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Probably why the founders hid behind the concept of God given rights as the basis of individual liberty in the hypocritical logic.

285   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2008 Jan 16, 2:48pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

their hypocritical logic.

286   Peter P   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 16, 3:14pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

All I know is that eating meat is a God given right.

287   empty houses   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 16, 4:00pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

You've got a point galloping Cheeta. It's on top of your head. You've got a pointy head

288   empty houses   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 16, 4:05pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I like the new Zillow.com satelite shots. I can see my neighbors pot plants. They're not current pics but it's much improved from before

289   PermaRenter   ignore (20)   2008 Jan 16, 10:46pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

With the Standard & Poor's 500 at a 10-month low is now a good time to buy for investors with a one-year time horizon?

Yes. We're either at or close to a bottom. 33%
No. Stocks will trade sideways or fall further. 67%

61761 Votes to date

290   PermaRenter   ignore (20)   2008 Jan 16, 10:57pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Compare this to a Silly Con Valley CEO:

Microsoft Corp. Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer received a pay package valued about $1.3 million for fiscal 2007, a year in which profit at the world's largest software maker topped $14 billion, according to documents filed Friday.

For the year ended June 30, Ballmer received $620,000 in salary and a $650,000 bonus. Unlike some technology companies that spend millions on executive security, travel and other perquisites, Microsoft gave Ballmer a modest $6,750 in matches to his 401K retirement plan and approximately $3,000 worth of life insurance and athletic club memberships.

Ballmer, who owns about 4.3 percent of Microsoft's shares, received no equity compensation. He didn't exercise any stock options or vest any stock awards during the year, the company said in the Securities and Exchange Commission filing.

291   DinOR   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 16, 11:18pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"specifically address mother in law issues" LOL!

Yes, something MUST be done!

Seriously though, the guy is living off grid, generating his own electricity and doing his own thing without it affecting any of the rest of us! I say more power to ya'!

292   DinOR   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 16, 11:24pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

"Find an ancient temple and fill it with slot machines"

This is my waking nightmare. We've had arguments in the past about who is and who ain't a boomer but there just isn't a desirable place left on the globe boomers haven't ALREADY soiled.

I had a client just return from La Paz (Baja Del Sur?) and he said they now have gated communities w/ all the amenities. He said his friends and their neighbors just hung out inside their centrally air conditioned McHaciendas (TM) and drank. Not that the guy is some altar boy but what about hitting the town and drinking w/ the locals? No chance!

293   DinOR   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 16, 11:28pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        


No, you're right. I've never spent all that much time on the east coast, and most of the people I DO know there are connected to WS is some fashion. I was addressing more in general about regional attitudes toward wealth and money.

294   PermaRenter   ignore (20)   2008 Jan 17, 12:07am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Here comes Helicopter from Ben Bernanke:

Bush, Bernanke Support Stimulus Package
Bush and Bernanke Back Package to Stimulate Weakening Economy

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Bush and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Thursday embraced calls for an economic stimulus package to avert recession. Bernanke said such a plan should be quickly implemented and temporary so that it won't complicate longer-term fiscal challenges.

The Fed chief, in testimony to the House Budget Committee, said efforts that involve "putting money into the hands of households and firms would be more effective" than other provisions, such as making Bush's tax cut permament.

295   PermaRenter   ignore (20)   2008 Jan 17, 12:21am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

median rent prices were essentially flat in 2007, rising just 0.5 percent to $1,465 a month, according to a sampling of 10 metro areas from Investment Instruments Corp.'s Rentometer. The stagnation is attributed to excess housing inventory as people are unable to "flip" investment properties. Residential rents in Atlanta and Houston dropped 12.8 percent last year.

296   SP   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 17, 12:53am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

PermaRenter Says:
I want more Silly Con Valley CEOs behind bars …

Me want that too. I don't know if there is a statute of limitations on this, but the eye-witness shenanigans I personally saw back in the '99/Y2K timeframe would be enough to put a couple of IPO CEO's into big trouble. Wish I was a little more ruthless, I could probably monetize that threat somehow... :-)

297   skibum   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 17, 1:00am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Isn't that simply pathetic? The solution from the Fed and other "expert economists" for the current economic malaise is to find some way to get Americans to SPEND more!!! If that's the solution, we are all doomed. We're just fixing the addiction with more crack. Pretty soon, we are all going to OD, crash and burn.

298   PermaRenter   ignore (20)   2008 Jan 17, 1:47am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Tent city in suburbs is cost of home crisis By Dana Ford
Fri Dec 21, 8:18 AM ET

ONTARIO, California (Reuters) - Between railroad tracks and beneath the roar of departing planes sits "tent city," a terminus for homeless people. It is not, as might be expected, in a blighted city center, but in the once-booming suburbia of Southern California.


The noisy, dusty camp sprang up in July with 20 residents and now numbers 200 people, including several children, growing as this region east of Los Angeles has been hit by the U.S. housing crisis.

The unraveling of the region known as the Inland Empire reads like a 21st century version of "The Grapes of Wrath," John Steinbeck's novel about families driven from their lands by the Great Depression.

As more families throw in the towel and head to foreclosure here and across the nation, the social costs of collapse are adding up in the form of higher rates of homelessness, crime and even disease.

While no current residents claim to be victims of foreclosure, all agree that tent city is a symptom of the wider economic downturn. And it's just a matter of time before foreclosed families end up at tent city, local housing experts say.

"They don't hit the streets immediately," said activist Jane Mercer. Most families can find transitional housing in a motel or with friends before turning to charity or the streets. "They only hit tent city when they really bottom out."

Steve, 50, who declined to give his last name, moved to tent city four months ago. He gets social security payments, but cannot work and said rents are too high.

"House prices are going down, but the rentals are sky-high," said Steve. "If it wasn't for here, I wouldn't have a place to go."


299   PermaRenter   ignore (20)   2008 Jan 17, 2:15am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Google $100 drop within 30 days:

16-Jan-08 628.97 639.99 601.93 615.95 10,560,000 615.95
15-Jan-08 645.90 649.05 635.38 637.65 5,568,200 637.65
14-Jan-08 651.14 657.40 645.25 653.82 4,447,500 653.82
11-Jan-08 642.70 649.47 630.11 638.25 4,977,000 638.25
10-Jan-08 645.01 657.20 640.11 646.73 6,334,200 646.73
9-Jan-08 630.04 653.34 622.51 653.20 6,739,700 653.20
8-Jan-08 653.00 659.96 631.00 631.68 5,339,100 631.68
7-Jan-08 653.94 662.28 637.35 649.25 6,403,400 649.25
4-Jan-08 679.69 680.96 655.00 657.00 5,359,800 657.00
3-Jan-08 685.26 686.85 676.52 685.33 3,252,500 685.33
2-Jan-08 692.87 697.37 677.73 685.19 4,306,900 685.19
31-Dec-07 698.57 702.49 690.58 691.48 2,376,200 691.48
28-Dec-07 704.93 707.95 696.54 702.53 2,537,000 702.53
27-Dec-07 707.07 716.00 700.74 700.74 2,942,500 700.74
26-Dec-07 698.99 713.22 698.21 710.84 2,530,000 710.84

300   SP   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 17, 3:16am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Malcolm Says:
They already do that in China. Google was recently investigated because one of the people it turned in from its search engine

Um... I think you are thinking about the _other_ search engine, I forgot what they're called... yeah who? :-)

301   skibum   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 17, 3:18am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

Bay Area DQ numbers out for December:


This time, median is finally down, and it's down in EVERY SINGLE COUNTY (except Marin, for which it is flat). Let's hear the bulls' arguments now that Bay Area prices are immune to the downturn.

302   skibum   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 17, 3:20am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

I like their headline,

"Bay Area home sales drag along bottom, median price back to 2005 level."

303   Peter P   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 17, 4:58am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

median price back to 2005 level

I still remember hearing homeowners boasting $xxx/day appreciation.

304   Malcolm   ignore (1)   2008 Jan 17, 7:34am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

SP, I stand corrected, it very well could have been Yahoo and I mixed them up. I'm not certain.

305   SP   ignore (0)   2008 Jan 17, 7:51am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag        

skibum Says:
I like their headline: “Bay Area home sales drag along bottom"

At least another quarter of dragging along the bottom, then a couple of quarters of sliding down the back of the thigh, a quarter dragging along the back of the knee, maybe a quick run down the shin, then circle the ankles for another quarter.

Let me know when it is tickling the sole, I may start looking at a house to buy.

My favorite line is still there: "Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions". An apt euphemism for stuff hitting the fan.

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