patrick.net

Wow, looking at historic (C/S Index) data for the SF Bay Area, the July to August reversal (positive to negative) is unprecedented. I said in the previous months that it looked like we were around 1994 or 1995; the August numbers are so ugly that it looks more like 1992 or 1993. (All NSA, BTW. CR has posted previously about the dubious nature of SA, so I don't put much stock in them. One look at the spreadsheet will tell you why.) Will be interesting to see what September has in store.

middleman says

Don’t be so free with your financial/mortgage advice - especially when it’s not appreciated. We have a very small window of opportunity to build wealth in this depressed housing market and if everyone was on board, the window wouldn’t exist.

He is not trying to help us with advice, although he may think he is.

The real motivation is to get enough sheeple onboard that the holes in the bottom of the ship are covered by the trampling feet of the herd.

justme says

The real motivation is to get enough sheeple onboard....

It seems this may be the case for the doom and gloomers.

robertoaribas says

won’t have any effect? who freaking knows that? did it pull forward buyers who would have bought in the next six months? next year?

Good point. I should have asked--when will the CS numbers not be positively affected by the tax credit?

tatupu70 says

robertoaribas says

won’t have any effect? who freaking knows that? did it pull forward buyers who would have bought in the next six months? next year?

Good point. I should have asked–when will the CS numbers not be positively affected by the tax credit?

Your original question was likely more a rhetorical device than a real question, but AFAIK some of the deadlines for closings that can still include the tax credit have been extended into September.

I was wondering what spin the Shiller the Schil would have on August market.

I bought at the end of July beginning of August.
With my Max I was willing to spend and criteria on space and home, I've had two or three hits in three years tops. July alone, I saw 10 houses, all of which were bellow $175 the house I bought was reduced from $199 to $170K I got it for $160. And all of those other houses under $175 I was looking at in July were down from as much as 229K.

middleman .... for which RE broker do you sling house-crack?

TechGromit says

so I’m not calling the bottom yet.

No one can ever call a bottom until businesses start hiring and spending. Until then it is all denial.

TechGromit says

I’m not calling the bottom yet

Everybody will be calling the bottom 2 years after housing prices drastically improve. Then the talk will be...."If I would've...", or "I wish I would've..."

For some context, here's a list of the past years where the C/S SF Bay Area Index has seen a drop from July to August: 1990 (-.2%), 1992 (-.5%), 1993 (-.03%), 2001 (1.4%), 2006 (-.2%), 2007 (-.2%), 2008 (-3.5%), 2010 (-.3%). Again, note that in all these years (save 2010), the July to August drop was preceded by a June to July drop. The 2010 anomaly could be the result of:
1. Govt interface
2. Pent up demand
3. Availability of financing
4. All of the above

middleman says

Everybody will be calling the bottom 2 years after housing prices drastically improve.

That's not "calling the bottom." You're confused or confusing.

FunTime says

middleman says

Everybody will be calling the bottom 2 years after housing prices drastically improve.

That's not "calling the bottom." You're confused or confusing.

like many bulls. he's thoroughly confused.

TechGromit says

The biggest drop in prices occurred between 2007 and 2008, if I only had this graph to base my predictions on, then I would say the market has reached it's bottom. I am still concerned with the number of housing banks still have / and will get on there books, so I'm not calling the bottom yet.

folks, IMHO this is going to be a very long and grinding process.

Where's the reversal going to come from? The bon temps of 2002-2006 were utter bullshit and they actually damaged us economically.

The 1990s gave us an employment boom, but that was the front-end of the benefits of globalization. Now we're looking at paying the piper for the gains we got then.

People need to internalize what this graph:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=103

is telling them.

We're fucked. Without that $5T boost in government debt 2008 to now we wouldn't even have an economy.

The leading edge of the baby boom is turning 65 this year. Either we raise taxes or we print money to fund their retirement & medicare promises.

The electorate in its infinite wisdom put the Republicans back in power last year, so the system is locked up.

In 1995-2000 this was not such a crisis since the Dems had actually done the heavy lifting of reforms immediately prior to being booted.

They didn't do that this time, so things are a lot more fragile now.

Weren't 1992 and 1993 the bottom of the last housing market?
No, in the SF Bay Area we pushed sideways (and ultimately LOWER) for the next couple of years before finally turning the corner in March 1996 (65.92). In each year preceding 1996, there was, of course, a seasonal head fake. IMHO, turning negative earlier than the Sept. C/S report will be a very bad sign. To be fair, the absolute low in the previous downturn was 65.79 in March 1994.

egads101 says

good call calculated risk!

Man, what did that duck think he was doing... arguing with the obviously better economically educated permabearasses on patrick.net and calculated risk??/

That duck.... he bought in 2010 like the oracle did, he must be wiped out by now!!!

So Roberto, are you buying again this fall or winter??

Is egads roberto? You lost me there, roberto, if so.

Yes I could tell by the tone. I realized I'd made an assumption and wanted confirmation in case I'd missed his announcement. The oracle is funny, egads!