patrick.net

First!

No, I mean, I see nothing *legally* wrong if Apple does that just as I see nothing wrong with what Apple is doing with the iPhone.

However, it is also the reason I won't ever buy an iPod or an iPhone. The marketplace lets me choose and I choose not to be a fanboy.

Apple's arrogant behavior also provides an excellent free market opportunity for competitors to come with up products late and still win simply because of their openness. Google could do that to iPhones. I believe that openness will win out eventually and Apple will be stuck with its small band of yuppie fanboys, just like the case with its macintosh computers.

Hurry up, google, with your android compatible touchscreen phones!

I don't see anything morally wrong with this strategy. Nobody *needs* an iPhone. I am happy with my Samsung.

Five reasons why the H-1B visa cap will increase
By Patrick Thibodeau
Created Mar 15 2008 - 3:36pm
Two bills were introduced this week to raise the H-1B visa cap. They follow Microsoft Corp. Chairman Bill Gates' visit to Washington [1]and his push for a H-1B cap increase. The opposition faces a daunting task in challenging the push to increase the H-1B visa.

H-1B proponents in Congress acted quickly to take advantage Gates brought to the issue. U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas) introduced legislation Friday that would retroactively increase the 2008 visa cap to 195,000 [2], as well as set that level for the fiscal year, 2009, that begins Oct. 1. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Arz.) introduced legislation the same week to increase the cap to 130,000 a year [3]. The current cap is set at 65,000, with an additional 20,000 for holders of advance degrees.

Here are five reason why opponents face a very difficult, if not impossible task, in stopping a visa cap hike:

One: H-1B opponents have no clout

If H-1B visas weren’t part of the larger immigration reform issue in Congress, the H-1B cap would have been increased long ago. The opponents have been piggybacking on the broader immigration debate and they know it. But the H-1B opposition is in decline even as the debate grows more intense. Five years ago, tech workers in Connecticut – many working or connected to the financial services industry (the first industry to really embrace offshoring) – organized a lobbying group, the Organization for the Rights of American Workers (TORAW). By 2003, Connecticut's congressional reps had introduced several bills – all affecting the H-1B issue. The legislation went nowhere, but Connecticut tech workers proved that an organized effort can have impact. It’s all part of history now. TORAW has disbanded [4], out of money and members. The broader base of opponents are alert, well connected and can fire off thoughtful, well researched emails to lawmakers at an instant, but TORAW is illustrative of the anemic state of the opposition. Opponents lack lobbying muscle in Washington.

Two: The Gates effect

Bill Gates is, obviously, a powerful proponent of the H-1B visa. But where is the opposition’s star power? Lou Dobbs isn’t it. The Programmers Guild has been effective in raising issues, but the real heavy weight organization, with true lobbying ability, is the IEEE-USA, and it has scaled back its opposition to H-1B visas. This group has staked out a position focused on visa reform and improving access to permanent residency, the Green Cards. The IEEE-USA was once more direct about the impact of the H-1B visa: In 2004, when the cap was scaled back to 65,000 the IEEE-USA pointed out [5]: The number of unemployed U.S. high-tech professionals dropped sharply from the first quarter of 2004 to the third quarter. The decline mirrors the reinstatement of the H-1B visa cap to its historical level of 65,000 in Fiscal Year 2004 from 195,000 in FY 03. That was a strong message to send to Congress. But the IEEE-USA also represents many academic institutions that depend on the H-1B visas. Although universities are exempted from the cap, foreign enrollments may suffer if students feel they have little chance of remaining in the U.S. longterm. Universities also have strong ties to tech companies. It is probably safe to say that the IEEE-USA, as an organization, is getting pulled in different directions.

Three: There is grass root support for the H-1B visa

A major use of H-1B visas is to help facilitate offshore outsourcing and even in this downturn outsourcing will continue to grow. That’s the broad outlook by industry analysts. The pressure for visas remains, even in a downturn. But the H-1B visa has a very broad, grass root constituency that extends beyond the tech sector. In the 2007 fiscal year, nearly 20,000 companies [6], academic institutions, hospitals, public schools and others received only one H-1B visa. These organizations send emails as well.

Four: The H-1B lottery is a big problem for tech firms

The forecasted demand for H-1B visas is going to force the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service (USCIS) to hand out visas via a random lottery for the fiscal year 2009 that starts Oct 1. For the 2008 fiscal year, the USCIS received more than 123,000 visa petitions [7] in two days for the 65,000 cap. Despite that number, the odds were still good that a petition would be approved in its lottery. The USCIS put all those visa petitions in a hat and selected about 100,000, rejecting the rest. The selection process works like college admission: The USCIS accepts more petitions then it has slots and expects a certain number of these applications to be withdrawn or disqualified. But this year there seems to be broad consensus that the number of visa petitions will exceed last year's total, and companies may face visa odds of two-to-one or higher. This makes the outlook for getting a visa very unpredictable and unacceptable to tech groups, which are now pushing for a cap increase with special urgency. But here is an important point to keep in mind: The people who receive visas under the 65,000 cap are more likely to only have a bachelor degree. They are the worker bees. The U.S. has a separate H-1B visa cap of 20,000 for foreign nationals who graduate with advance degrees from U.S. universities. But there was no lottery for these graduates because there was no sudden rush [8]in demand. The USCIS filled those petitions on a first-come, first serve basis until April 30 that year. That may change this year.

Five: Congressional support for visa

Lawmakers have moved the cap up and down before and they will do it again. Congress will increase the cap this year or next and may make it retroactive as well. Had an immigration bill been approved last year the cap would have been 115,000. The open question is whether the H-1B visa will be reformed as part of a cap increase. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) last year pushed for a reform that set a limit on how the visa is used [9]. One rule set a limit that no more than 50 percent of the U.S.-based employees at a company using H-1B workers can be visa holders. It was a measure aimed at making the India offshore firms a little less nimble and raising it as a trade issue for India.

I'm retired.

I no longer have a cell phone.

In most of the local wilderness area, there is NO cell phone coverage anyway.

What, me worry? :)

Five reasons why the H-1B visa cap will increase

So what's that going to do to housing prices in the bay area?

Seems like that will have a powerful dampening effect on wage growth, if not downright downward pressure on wages, making housing less affordable than it already is.

Then again, more people means more competition for housing, and the Bay Area is extremely stubborn in allowing more dense housing construction. More demand means higher prices.

Or maybe the effect will be negligible?

"The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency." - V.I. Lenin

Why would it be illegal? Like I've said before, exclusivity is not anti trust. If you don't like it, get a different phone.

“fascism is capitalism in decay” -Lenin

Crap, I came to that conclusion on my own. This is how bad the situation has gotten.

We are quoting the great saint Lenin to justify our views now?

Perhaps I'm misreading it, but, I think this post might show a bit of ignorance on how the US cellular market works: For the most part, carriers have control over which phones are allowed to connect to their networks. Apple was in negotiations with multiple carriers and AT&T won with an insistence on exclusivity.

“fascism is capitalism in decay”

It is like saying refuse is orange in decay.

It is what it is.
I don't interpret the quote as glorifying fascism, or knocking capitalism, just like refuse isn't a put down to being an orange.

It is what it is.

Again, it depends upon what the definition of the world 'is' is.

Its unlikely ATT Wireless might be considered a winner; they simply spread their legs the widest for Jobs. Keep in mind where the true money is, which is services billings. Assuming slightly lower churn than industry avg due to brand loyalty, say 20% annually. My quick calculation figures average iphone customer is probably worth about $4,250 in lifetime service revenues per activation. I wonder what percentage of service revenues Apple negotiated, is this in any of their public documents?

Apples deal analysis weighed the benefits of greater market share by selling to multiple carriers against the revenue share associated with exclusivity of a single carrier. At least this is my guess.

Depending upon Google's move or other disruption, the iphone may follow the typical market model of high initial pricing and sales margins to the point where the carrier(s) are giving away for free for the services revenues.

Apple was wise not to go the MVNO route, that business is a loser. No margins, out of control churn and subscriber acquisition costs.

After ATT merged with the cellular one Cingular properties, many of their phones were tri band capable. They worked on AMPS, TDMA, and GSM air interface technologies. It is a fairly simple proposition to these days to provide software or hardware solutions to allow this flexibility. Harder challenges were solved including facilitating call handoffs between the various air interfaces.

European market standardization on GSM eliminated uncertainty for vendors allowing more rapid innovation to occur. The US market was more complex due to the competing vendor standards in the marketplace as they each battled for the prize.

The US carriers have always had a very cozy relationship with the handset manufacturers, and have used whatever leverage they had to squeeze them, and buy them, into model exclusivity. This has generally worked in both parties favor, with large purchase guarantees limiting risks for manufacturers.

I'd love to see the language of Apples ATT contract, I wonder how long the term is and whether they have sales milestone triggers and outs.

Why should it be illegal? If you don't like the deal - as I don't - do not buy it. It's not like you cannot live without this shiny new toy.

If enough people think it's good for them to have Apple+AT&T deal, why the government should mess with it? If there were enough people not buying because of this deal - Apple would hear the message, as they did with disallowing custom applications.

This just in: do your patriotic duty and walkaway. Hey if an Iraqi vet did it, why can't you. I have to admit, though, the guy who HELOCed a pool and is now in a Mexican standoff with his bank kinda scares me. More folks like him and we might have a financial crises. Ony three or four (hundred billion dollar) bullets are left in chamber of the Fed's gun. Duck and run for cover.
PS - WiMax will liberate the airwaves.

Website To Help You Walk Away From Your Home
MIAMI (CBS4) ―
Record home foreclosures in Florida and across the country are prompting some people to walk away, even before a bank steps in to take their home, and they're getting help from an unlikely source.

CBS4's Your Money Reporter Al Sunshine investigated why it might not be a good thing for you.

This is something we have never seen in this country before, a website called YouWalkAway.com, that says it can help you do just that, and at the same time is creating a bit of controversy.

Lori Nicholson is packing up, abandoning the house she and her children have lived in for more than two decades.

"23 years this year, my son I actually brought him home from the hospital in this house," said Nicholson. "It's tough, it's very tough to leave."

Six years ago Nicholson took out a second mortgage on the house to pay for a divorce. With declining home values, she owes more in mortgages than the house is worth, it's called being "upside down" in your mortgage.

"Even if you continue the payments by the time you want to sell the house, the market turns around, you're not going to get any money out of it," explained Nicolson. "That's basically what they told me."

With the downturn in the housing market, many homeowners find themselves like Nicholson, who is basically stuck with a bad loan. Even if they are able to make her monthly payments, there's little incentive to. So they are walking away, leaving the bank holding the bag.

"A home ownership has always been something that borrowers would do absolutely everything they could to avoid foreclosures and retain their homes," said Paul Leonard of youwalkaway.com

Not anymore. There's a website to help people save their home: YouWalkAway.Com

"They just see writing on the wall as far as their investment going down the tubes and they want to bail out as soon as they can before they lose any more money," said Helbert.

One financial research firm predicts that if home prices drop an additional 10 percent, 20 million families will owe more than the value of their homes.

"I can't say when people decide to walk away, it might be an epiphany in the middle of the night that they decide they're not comfortable with the 5 thousand a month payment anymore since their property is worth 2 or 3 hundred thousandless than they owe on it," explained Helbert.

For Nicholson, the decision to walk away came when the bank wouldn't help her figure out a way to stay in her house.

"I just don't know what else to do," explained Nicholson. "I'm tired of fighting the bank, I'm tired of fighting a situation. I cried for days and days and days, because I'm thinking this house is coming to an end and now I'm seeing it."

Before signing up or paying for any so-called foreclosure assistance counseling plans, make sure to double check the "fine print." Make sure you also double check all the costs and get in writing exactly what the company will be doing.

Also remember to double check with a financial advisor if possible, to see what impact a walk-away will have on your credit rating.

No IP based wireless technologies, WiMax or others coming, have been able to crack the sustainable model problem. Open VoIP standards and open wireless access seemingly would facilitate a very *free* or *cheap* service offering, but who pays for it? There are complex PSTN interconnection issues, regulatory issues, and of course taxation issues involved.

Public private partnerships are flailing, and any model that has the potential to truly disrupt faces the most powerful lobby in Washington, the Telcos. Large sums at stake.

Google executing an advertising supported model is certainly interesting but faces the same enormous challenges. I'm not prepared to say that they cannot pull that off, but it doesn't seem to be a slam dunk.

I recently heard of an upsidesidedowner who is thinking seriously about MEW'ing into cash and walking sometime thereafter. This "friend of a friend" intends to use the cash to pay for undergraduate expense for his two children enrolling academic year '09 & '10.

Apparently he has not done this yet, but is giving serious consideration. Withdrawing with no intent to pay it back is outright thievery. Blatant bank robbery with no consequences. I'm a bit surprised that this may still be possible to execute at this late date.

I know the banksters have withdrawn home equity lines for some subset of borrowers; I have little faith in the competence of their models or modelers.

Message to any bankers reading, "LOCK UP those HELOC lines immediately"! Closing the barns doors after here, but lets get 'em closed up already. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns.

What this tells me is that we may well see very soon the complete evaporation of home equity lines from the marketplace, at least in their current form. If the banks cannot reliably predict who might pull these shenanigans in this environment, its "no more soup" for everyone. More "AAA" prime paper that has no idea this trainwreck is coming.

I recently heard of an upsidesidedowner who is thinking seriously about MEW’ing into cash and walking sometime thereafter.

Such intention can be construed as fraud. It is probably illegal and it is definitely unethical.

I consider Robin Hood a thief and nothing more.

Not legal advice.

ATT is a lawless company, mainly supported by the federal government. They are big supporters of government surveillance, and are responsible for putting many people in jail, including political prisoners. They should have died a long time ago, if not for government support, and it is a shame that Apple is in bed with them.

Remember: AT&T is a member of the college of corporations

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AI8mC8XucY

and also Exxon!

Gold is going crazy, what's happening?

wow $2 for bear

"Dollars dropping!"

Dollar is dropping like a stone...

"stocks are off 75 points and gold just hit 2,000"

"by tonight that will be cheap!'

Rollover - 1981

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iicB80Mwz8w&feature=related

I am more astonished at how fast Yen is advancing, at this given rate, we may go to parity with Yen before long!

Perhaps that is why Toyota is made in the USA!

$2.00 a share for Bear? Sounds kind of expensive.

Expensive is an understatement - I guess this means JPM will be the next to fall as they have taken on ALL of Bears liabilities!

All the Bear execs' retirement savings are in Bear Stocks. Poetic justice.

JPM is fine, JPM owns Fed. Fed's loan to JPM is non-recourse yet JPM's loan to Bear is recourse. JPM will make a profit out of this.

OO,

Are you saying JPM is a buy?

btw - FRB cut the target fed funds rate by 25 bps tonight.

No, I won't touch any financial stock with a 10-ft pole. But the powers within the financial system will be fine, unfortunately I am not one of them and therefore don't know the best way to take advantage of such a situation.

BSC has always been a 2nd, 3rd tier bank taking on more risk than necessary.

I agree with you comment on Bear in recent history but when 'ACE' ran it that was not the case at all!

http://venturebeat.com/2015/02/19/apple-gunning-to-start-production-of-the-icar-in-2020-report/