patrick.net

Unemployment is always a flawed metric. Like almost all statistics what you get depends on the definitions you establish. The U6 number, which is much closer to how unemployment was calculated in the past, is still around 16%.

What I see it that the population grew by 30 million in the last decade. The labor force has barely changed. That's not a good sign.

Any increase in employment is good news, but hopefully we learned something from the experience. Still a lot a room for prices to keep correcting downwards.

I know a few good people unemployed for 1-2 years now who are LT homeowners, or didnt buy a home (renters), but lost their jobs and have their careers in limbo today. Not Good.

Next Time..

Next time, down the road in 10-15 years when some pinheads start overbidding and overspending on homes, please be sure to beat the crap out of them or at least educate them on the past bubbles and the consequences... else you will suffer for their idiotic mistakes.

It will probably help in some areas. However, I don't think it will help keep the bubble in California going. Barely employed people don't have insane amount of money it takes to purchase a house at todays still bubbled prices.

And I'm kind of skeptical that they can keep this unemployment go lower. With Republicans in Congress they are pretty much putting brakes on Obama's special interest bail out give aways which have been the only driving force behind this. Essentially fake prosperity at the expense to the debt for the future generations.

I am in for this number as it will help lot of people in their pain. But this will not help in easing the home price declines. For millions of buyers like me that is necessary to prevent what the post 2003 buyers did. Do you think the jobs that are returning is 100K+ ones that can support the stupidly insane BA prices? Even with 5% UE rate BA prices have no fundamental support in home prices.

By the way banks would be more then willing to partner with the newly employed in their mission to acquire a home at current prices, that is where the key to home price direction lies - Getting a job itself does not mean anything.

This guy says that high tech is showing the strongest job growth.
Plus 3-4% wage inflation
so the jobs returning actually are the 100k+ ones.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42373371

Here another article I like Peter Morici because he's usually one of these skeptical right wing guys
who now seems to be coming around.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42374560

I've been saying all a long the order of recovery is
jobs first then housing so housing's recovery will be next big story.

Recently heard from friends around me, getting a loan from banks has been very tough. The bank will hold you upside down in order to shake the last penny off your pocket. They question every single transaction, usually deposit, which is larger than $1000 and want to make sure it is not a cash advance from credit card. They want your recent 12 months rental payment records, w2, 1040 and so on and so forth. If one's source of income is shady or unprovable, getting a loan will be unlikely. Not sure how much jobs created lately can satisfy bank's requirements to get a loan to buy home in CA.

kimtitu says

Recently heard from friends around me, getting a loan from banks has been very tough. The bank will hold you upside down in order to shake the last penny off your pocket. They question every single transaction, usually deposit, which is larger than $1000 and want to make sure it is not a cash advance from credit card. They want your recent 12 months rental payment records, w2, 1040 and so on and so forth. If one’s source of income is shady or unprovable, getting a loan will be unlikely. Not sure how much jobs created lately can satisfy bank’s requirements to get a loan to buy home in CA.

Hell, they won't even believe your last pay stub. They will call the employer on the day of release of the loan to make sure you are really employed. When were the last time around banks as desperate as this? Anybody who is dreaming of home price turnaround needs to have his/her head examined by a neurologist.

The employment we need would look like your sister going to work building bombers.

bubblesitter says

Hell, they won’t even believe your last pay stub. They will call the employer on the day of release of the loan to make sure you are really employed. When were the last time around banks as desperate as this? Anybody who is dreaming of home price turnaround needs to have his/her head examined by a neurologist.

I think you could be in for a surprise. I'm not dreaming of a home price turnaround but it wouldn't surprise me if we see one. It's all local from here on out unfortunately unlike the bank's balance sheets.

I'm predicting that the strong job centers recovery will lead the outlying problem areas.

toothfairy says

bubblesitter says

Hell, they won’t even believe your last pay stub. They will call the employer on the day of release of the loan to make sure you are really employed. When were the last time around banks as desperate as this? Anybody who is dreaming of home price turnaround needs to have his/her head examined by a neurologist.

I think you could be in for a surprise. I’m not dreaming of a home price turnaround but it wouldn’t surprise me if we see one. It’s all local from here on out unfortunately unlike the bank’s balance sheets.
I’m predicting that the strong job centers recovery will lead the outlying problem areas.

Better get yourself some investment properties before you miss the boat.

The real unemployment nationally is higher, and it's worse in California. In some places, employment has been OK and the only thing that fell was house values. House prices still are inflated of course in places like San Francisco, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, etc. Real estate has held its value where there are jobs: Washington DC, Manhattan, Austin Texas, Houston, Bay Area, etc. In general, the employment picture stinks and will take a long time to improve. There is also a giant shadow inventory of houses so averaged all together, house prices will go down. Locally there will be exceptions, which is typical. When I look at some towns on zillow, I have seen more houses in foreclosure or an equal number in foreclosure as are for sale, while prices are dropping. If I had to wager on where prices will go to, I would guess to 98 levels or below in many places. If I had to wager on when job creation will actually lower unemployment and things actually improve, I would predict 5 years or more.

bubblesitter says

kimtitu says

Recently heard from friends around me, getting a loan from banks has been very tough. The bank will hold you upside down in order to shake the last penny off your pocket. They question every single transaction, usually deposit, which is larger than $1000 and want to make sure it is not a cash advance from credit card. They want your recent 12 months rental payment records, w2, 1040 and so on and so forth. If one’s source of income is shady or unprovable, getting a loan will be unlikely. Not sure how much jobs created lately can satisfy bank’s requirements to get a loan to buy home in CA.

Hell, they won’t even believe your last pay stub. They will call the employer on the day of release of the loan to make sure you are really employed. When were the last time around banks as desperate as this? Anybody who is dreaming of home price turnaround needs to have his/her head examined by a neurologist.

What's more interesting is the bank will tell you they have to make sure your loan can be sold to second market. Banks just want to get their fee and toss the risk to second market as soon as possible.

About the drop in unemployment rate, could it has something to do with the birth-death model flaw used by BLS?

kimboslice says

I have seen more houses in foreclosure or an equal number in foreclosure as are for sale, while prices are dropping. If I had to wager on where prices will go to, I would guess to 98 levels or below in many places. If I had to wager on when job creation will actually lower unemployment and things actually improve, I would predict 5 years or more.

Agreed, no doubt you have seen the unemployment stick around for a long time after the 90s recession. Price decline also dragged out until we saw another bubble to prop prices up.

APOCALYPSEFUCK says

Hahahahahahaha!
Yeah! Housing prices will double in a year, too!
Hahahahahahaha!
It’s never been a better time to buy!

As usual your input to the forum is very valuable!

Housing will not stabilize until the average American wage earner can afford the average house. So the question becomes what is the average American job being created these days? We're probably increasingly looking to someone working at Best Buy, Wal-Mart or Target to be purchasing homes. Housing markets are generally local so you tell me if you think houses are affordable for these people in your area yet...

@mickrussom

>Underemployment falls to 19.3% from 19.9% at the end of February
by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist

This is an important stat as well. Also the pay of the new jobs being created is key. I think it is dropping (overall on ave.), but I could be wrong. U3 stats do *not* tell the whole story by any means.

what would also be interesting is the pay of jobs lost during the recession.

this chart gives some insight into where the most damage was done

toothfairy says

This guy says that high tech is showing the strongest job growth.

Plus 3-4% wage inflation

so the jobs returning actually are the 100k+ ones.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42373371

There are ~350,000 people that work in the tech industry in the Bay Area (2006).

Probably less now.

There are 7.5 million people that live here.

CrazyMan says

toothfairy says

This guy says that high tech is showing the strongest job growth.
Plus 3-4% wage inflation
so the jobs returning actually are the 100k+ ones.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42373371

There are ~350,000 people that work in the tech industry in the Bay Area (2006).
Probably less now.
There are 7.5 million people that live here.

the bay area is a big place there are 9 counties here.
so what are you trying to say?

bubblesitter says

toothfairy says

bubblesitter says

Hell, they won’t even believe your last pay stub. They will call the employer on the day of release of the loan to make sure you are really employed. When were the last time around banks as desperate as this? Anybody who is dreaming of home price turnaround needs to have his/her head examined by a neurologist.

I think you could be in for a surprise. I’m not dreaming of a home price turnaround but it wouldn’t surprise me if we see one. It’s all local from here on out unfortunately unlike the bank’s balance sheets.
I’m predicting that the strong job centers recovery will lead the outlying problem areas.

Better get yourself some investment properties before you miss the boat.

exactly, if u r a bull, u really should be buying more properties RIGHT NOW instead of lurking around here in the forum, nothing to lose right?

toothfairy says

the bay area is a big place there are 9 counties here.
so what are you trying to say?

Poof! A legend who has been around is no more... Not good news many at National wanted to hear. Guess lower cost homes and employee costs in Texas do pay off. Crap I hate seeing this happen.

Texas Instruments to buy National Semiconductor for $6.5 billion

The deal would make Texas Instruments one of the world's largest makers of analog technology components, which are used to convert real-world information, like sounds, into digital signals.

Anyway please go on with the cheerleading routine...

isn't Dell from Texas?

Dell Inc. is planning to take over at least 240,000 square feet between two research and development office space buildings on Great America Parkway in Santa Clara, near Highway 237.

Read more: Dell takes big space in Santa Clara | Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2011/04/01/dell-takes-big-space-in-santa-clara.html

Not exactly factors we see which indicate any stabiliation in the job markets or increasing salaries. You try convincing your new manager based in Texas who makes $80-90K a year, that 100K plus for a staffer is reasonable.

You do recall what happened when HP hired Mark Hurd from Ohio... took a sledgehammer to costs and salaries. What do you think Dell with do here ? Free BBQ every Friday... Guess again.

warblah says

exactly, if u r a bull, u really should be buying more properties RIGHT NOW instead of lurking around here in the forum, nothing to lose right?

Buyers unlikely, more reasonable their livelyhood is connected on the selling side and counting on higher commissions..... Realtors. These same people are screaming 'buy now' as they have always in the past. Sales man 'up talk' is pretty evident from these people.

toothfairy says

Dell Inc. is planning to take over at least 240,000 square feet between two research and development office space buildings on Great America Parkway in Santa Clara, near Highway 237.

Read more: Dell takes big space in Santa Clara | Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2011/04/01/dell-takes-big-space-in-santa-clara.html

For what? Personnel or boxes? Empty research space seems ideal for storing overstocked computer inventory...

terriDeaner says

toothfairy says

Dell Inc. is planning to take over at least 240,000 square feet between two research and development office space buildings on Great America Parkway in Santa Clara, near Highway 237.
Read more: Dell takes big space in Santa Clara | Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2011/04/01/dell-takes-big-space-in-santa-clara.html

For what? Personnel or boxes? Empty research space seems ideal for storing overstocked computer inventory…

Haha.

SF ace says

Dell needs to be in Silicon Valley to be able to build a Tablet or other next generation of hardware like the Ipad2.

In all seriousness, do you have a reference for this? Thanks.

terriDeaner says

SF ace says

Dell needs to be in Silicon Valley to be able to build a Tablet or other next generation of hardware like the Ipad2.

In all seriousness, do you have a reference for this? Thanks.

of course not.

SF ace says

Dell needs to be in Silicon Valley to be able to build a Tablet or other next generation of hardware like the Ipad2. 10 years ago Dell laughed at Apple, now Apple is laughing at Dell. Following the steps of Nokia which moved here for similar reasons. When the business is 40B, it’s more important to get it right than contain cost. spend millions for billions.

You walk into many serious companies, wont find any Apple products runnning the Business. Corporations stop puchasing such products (early 90s) becuase of the higher costs and incompatable with ERP and other corporate systems. They are out of the corporate markets.

As for Apple itself which runs SAP ERP servers for its global operations... requires MS and most likely windows servers, Dell or HP. Even back in the '80s as Jobs was bad mouthing IBM, he had IBM mainframes stashed in the backroom running the Apple Business.

terriDeaner says

SF ace says

Dell needs to be in Silicon Valley to be able to build a Tablet or other next generation of hardware like the Ipad2.

In all seriousness, do you have a reference for this? Thanks.

SFA is a mind reader...

Ipad my big fat left toe!

Dell Inc. is expanding its presence in Silicon Valley, adding office space to accommodate the growth of companies it has bought there and others it plans to buy.

"We are building all over the world," CEO Michael Dell said Monday, before he took part in the dedication of a new Dell-based supercomputer at the University of Texas.

"Silicon Valley is no different. In the last 18 months or so, we have spent about $5 billion buying a number of companies, and a number of them are located in Silicon Valley."

Dell recently leased 240,000 square feet of office space in Santa Clara, Calif.

Asked whether the new space would be for companies Dell Inc. owns or those it plans to buy, Dell replied, "Both."

Dell Inc. bought three California companies last year — Kace, which makes systems management "appliances"; Ocarina Networks, which develops storage optimization technology; and Scalent Systems, which makes software that enables companies to expand their data center infrastructures more easily.

Dell wants to expand its acquisitions in order to bolster its offerings of products and services available to potential large and mid-size business and government customers.

Michael Dell said his company "absolutely" intends to buy more companies in the Silicon Valley area, "but I'm not going to tell you which ones they are."

Worldwide, "We added 7,000 or 8,000 people last year in Dell, and we will add that many this year," he said.

thunderlips11 says

Anyway, reason I logged in.
If unemployment rate is as low as “They” say it is, then the increasing number of households receiving food stamps need an explanation.
* Alot of people lost their jobs and are living off food stamps.

* Those that found jobs, found really shitty jobs that require food stamps otherwise they can’t make it on their paycheck.
Because the number of food stamp recipient households is now about 44M, up from 26M in 2007.
Currently, Food stamp use is 14% of the population. It was 9% just 4 years ago.
I like the shitty job explanation, since I can’t think of one industry that relies on decently-paid employees that has been hiring recently.

Well said. Shitty jobs $10/hr in CA and people are dreaming of home price turnaround...Haha..I am getting a kick out this denial of bulls. LOL.

thunderlips11 says

If unemployment rate is as low as “They” say it is, then the increasing number of households receiving food stamps need an explanation.

I like the shitty job explanation, since I can’t think of one industry that relies on decently-paid employees that has been hiring recently.

bubblesitter says

Well said. Shitty jobs $10/hr in CA and people are dreaming of home price turnaround…Haha..I am getting a kick out this denial of bulls. LOL.

Agreed.

thomas.wong1986 says

Dell Inc. is expanding its presence in Silicon Valley, adding office space to accommodate the growth of companies it has bought there and others it plans to buy.

thomas.wong1986 says

Dell wants to expand its acquisitions in order to bolster its offerings of products and services available to potential large and mid-size business and government customers.

Michael Dell said his company “absolutely” intends to buy more companies in the Silicon Valley area, “but I’m not going to tell you which ones they are.”

Worldwide, “We added 7,000 or 8,000 people last year in Dell, and we will add that many this year,” he said.

This does surprise me a bit. Is this really representative of information sector expansion in the Bay Area, or just Dell's expansion into someone else's market share?

I wonder what the prospective customer breakdown looks like... maybe 40/60 business/government? Just a guess.

terriDeaner says

This does surprise me a bit. Is this really representative of information sector expansion in the Bay Area, or just Dell’s expansion into someone else’s market share?
I wonder what the prospective customer breakdown looks like… maybe 40/60 business/government? Just a guess

Yes govt is certainly purchasing more high tech equipment. If your in the Info tech space you probably seen higher govt orders for SW and HW. I dont think is 40/60 by a long shot, but still under 10% for sure.

Dells move clearly indicates fewer independent players/employers in the future as the giants gobble up the small and larger employers in SV. Which means we will see a couple of large conglomerates running the show down the road. Not that great if you want to get a new job or start a new company. I hate to think what a recession 10-15 years from now will look like.