Had this good friend. Worked in a bank. Sold retired guy THE MOST secure investment after a money market. AAA rated, well run bond fund for God's sake. The prinicpal eroded about 1% (1% of a million is 10K). Old guy goes berserk, threatens legal action if he doesn't get his 1% back. Bank manager buckles and writes old guy a check. Wrong! This is called "riskless" investing. Example; guy calls up and says buy me xyz shares. O.K, xyz goes up 5 points and the guy says just sell me out and send me the profit. Well, O.K but you have to pay for the principal first! The guy was never AT RISK! I have NO compassion for the slick bastards. How is I/O w/zero down any different? They never had any "skin" in the game! Peace out yo.
Can I be the manager? I've always wanted to say that I was a REIT manager. Like George Costanza telling people he's Art Van Delay, an architect. A B/A REIT w/positive cash flow? This I gotta see. While we're in Fantasyland, can we start it in 1989?
Normally to retain exemption from "double taxation of dividends" we'd have to pass 90% of the profit thru to the shareholders but since we've utterly trampled traditional financial architecture anyway? Besides, what profit? New Volvos and vacation homes are expensive! That is part of my comp. package right?
And there you have it. At the core of many of the issues we face here in Ameruka center around many of us wanting "our dessert first"! Dues? Too painful! Short cuts, that's what I want!
"The annual price increase was the lowest since prices rose 13.1 percent to $474,000 in March 2004. It's probable that appreciation will dip into the single digits during the next month or two."
Hmmm...which statement doesn't belong???
Why don't they that 13.1% is the absolute lowest YOY appreciation that can be expected in the BA? I fully expect a bounce-back to +25% YOY in the coming months. What is wrong with all of these nay-sayers lately? Don't they know...(?)
I, for one, have become the office pariah because of my views on the bubble market...
Oh well, I’ll send them a “get well” card after I see their properties on the foreclosure list.
You could always save/invest like crazy, then offer to take those condos off your co-workers hands in a few years --at a very steep discount of course. THEN we'll see who the "pariah" is (_rubs hands with schadenfreude glee_). :mrgreen:
Makes perfect sense to me. I'm a firm believer in driving with my rear-view mirror. Sharply rising equity will bail us all out. This irresponsible fear-mongering from bears is akin to yelling "fire" in a crowded theater. Or crowded McMansion, whatever...
I don't know who is right, is there any bubble or not, but what I seen was, for the last several years, the real estate create lots of unstable and unfairness on US society, that drive ppl become greedy and let those end-users suffer.
I spend years in college, carrying 2 degrees and still worring about my job, or will recieve a pink slip one day, but those flippers, so-called investor, making $100,000 in weeks. Real estate actually create nothing, but bunch of greedy middle men, transfer the burden to the real end-users.
What I want to say is Thanks for patrick.net, that I visit everyday, and learned a lots the current news of Real Estate, which the realtor wont tell me. I feel sorry for those who server our committee well like Policeman, Nurses, Fireman, Teachers, their salary cannot let them afford a house, and have a stable life.
If I remember it correctly, Leslie Appleton-Young is the VP of CAR - California Association of Realtors, I think she just doing her job, cause thousands of people still working on Real Estate, or related business, they need to feed their families too.
Actually, I like to see the price go down or just calm down, at least let the society have a chance to breath, and recover. It just went too far.
"That’s because in most of the country, anyone who has owned a home for even a year or two is likely sitting on enough equity to sell or refinance if the loan payments become unaffordable.”
Okay, so maybe a lot of them are sitting on enough equity to sell without going upside-down, but selling of course creates downward pressure on prices, especially desperation selling.
And sure, many of them may have enough equity to refinance, but what do they refinance into that is going to be MORE affordable? Last time I checked mortgage rates are a lot higher than "even a year or two ago."
anyone who has owned a home for even a year or two is likely sitting on enough equity to sell or refinance if the loan payments become unaffordable.”
This is patently false. Depending on what region of the country we're talking about, anyone who bought in the last year or two (late to the party) is sitting on slim-to-none price gains. Within a matter of months, the rest of that vapor-equity --along with the easy credit that created it-- will evaporate. The days of the serial refi'er are rapidly drawing to a close.
Anyone who wishes to refinance out of an I/O or NAAVLP into a FR amortizing loan had better do so quickly, or they will be caught upside-down in an environment of tightening credit and falling prices --a negative feedback loop.
All these Gov. agencies, all these brilliant mort. lenders? Why didn’t these guys pull the plug in 2003? Not ONE person with authority could see this coming any earlier? What were they waiting for?
I strongly suspect they DID know what was happening, and deliberately goosed the market along. After all, to whom do bureaucrats owe their allegiance/jobs?: politicians. Who do politicians most aim to please: generous campaign contributors (NAR, Ameriquest, etc.) & regular voters, who cooincidentally also tend to be homeowners by a wide margin.
Politicians/regulators have done their best either to actively blow the bubble (Fed's negative real rates, A.G. cheerleading ARMs, GSE-issued MBS/CDOs) or --at best-- turn the other cheek on abuses within the system. You can expect them to do absolutely nothing until all the horses are gone and the barn has burned down. At that point, expect lots of blustery rhetoric and scapegoating/finger-pointing. Who knows, maybe we'll even get to see D.L. on TV doing a "perp walk".
Mortgage rates on 5-year ARMs average 5.95 percent and mortgage rates on 30-year fixed average 6.28 percent. So again, it's all well and good that they make the broad generalization that "most homeowners have enough equity to refinance" but the question still remains: what do they refi into that is going to save them money? The answer is they don't, and many people are already caught in the trap. Can you imagine what a shitty feeling that must be to your typical clueless homedebtor? "Oh fuck, next month my ARM is going to adjust and my monthly payment is going to double. I can refi, but that raises my monthly payment by $500.00 which I also can't afford. I'm fucked. Whelp, I think it's time to go by a bottle of whiskey!"
"Once the $hit hits the fan, and a majority of foreclosed properties fall into the hands of the major lending institutions, there will be a final push to break the REALTOR monoply and it will be successful." --George
Oh I couldn't agree more. Right now we're seeing people eager to break the NAR cartel "just" because of the ridiculous commissions they are pocketing on our current inflated property values. Just wait untill the bubble bursts; the NAR is royally screwed.
Man, I was duped. I feel so cheated by all the gold buys, and housing bears. Damn you HARM! I am going to sue you for all this crappy investment advice.
While I was always careful to point out that my opinions were *Not investment advice, I am truly sorry if they influenced you to make some bad decisions --like not buying as many homes on credit as possible.
Please accept my most sincere apology. I have seen the error of my ways and am trying my best to atone for them. :-(
Please don’t do it. I’m counting on a crash of mega proportions vaprizing at least a couple billion, make that trillion dollars of home ATM equity, to put downward pressure on our own stupid prices here in Canada.
But Vancouver is so desirable that people will always want to live there. I am going to fly over there so that I can buy a condo myself before I am priced out.
can we start a discussion on what to SHORT? Let's all make some money from this sucker. We need to act fast because some of these shares are starting to become difficult to borrow. Gotta get hold of the borrowed shares before the door closes.
Subprime lenders are definitely a prime target, credit card companies in fact are more juicy, because the subprime people don't carry their own loans on the balance (packaged off and sold as MBS), but the credit card companies are carrying UNSECURED loans which the borrowers will default on first when they are in stress! Builders like TOL, CTX are already coming down, any more room for shorting the way down? Profund Short Real Estate is good, or you can short M Reits yourself.
We have a group of smart people here, let's all make some dough while this baby blows up in the idiots' face.
It seems realtors are trying so hard to keep house prices from falling on transaction papers.
I suppose when I hear someone saying he's just bought a $1 million condo, what actually happened was the seller offered to pay 6 months of mortgage, 2 years of HOA fee, a free cruise to Finland, points and closing cost buyoffs, and a seller-financed, balloon interest-only mortgage. If you're a tough cookie, you can get the seller give out his left ball, too (if that's a he).
Add all that together, and you've got a bargain! No bubble after all.
how about asking your piece of mother fucking shit real whore to lower their fucking commision? I mean afterall, most of you assholes have what, a high school education? Get limber asshole because you'll be taking in the ass soon.