Very "quaint" listing you have there! "Cozy" some might say. I have a term for the type of people that put this kind of filth on the market; "Rip Van Flipper". I swear it's like they've been asleep for a hundred years, woke up, found there WAS a housing "boom" going on and decided now was a good time to cash in!
Well, the realtors need to find Some way, any way, of jump-starting their income. I hear of solidly experienced realtors who haven't had a commission in months. Did you see the Fed minutes from the last meeting? Only 2 members wanted to raise rates. Everyone else was sanguine about current inflation, and wanted to wait to see what the previous (paltry) rate increases would do. Boy, we're in for a mess.
Thanks DinOR for the info.
I saw flatlands there so I am not sure what is the view that all are talking about. I dont understand people wanting to move from California to live in OR. I stopped by at OSU to meet up with a friend who is doing his PhD there so I assume he has been in OR for a while. He told me that the weather there is such that you have drizzle all the time. It just does not rain and stop and thats the kind i really hate. And so is Seattle. I saw a lot of propaganda that Seattle is not the wettest place in the US and such.
I believe Hilo, HI is the wettest place in the U.S and although many places in the "lower 48" get more rain than the PNW we have the most days with rain! I can't remember the exact year (I think it was 1997 or 98) Seattle didn't HAVE A SUMMER! It rained up to and through mid-August, they had a few clear weeks and the dreaded rain started the day after Labor Day! Great place huh?
We might buy a pig stye intending to fix it up, but I can’t say I would rent one.
In a bubble, the "potential" is usually priced into the house. So you do not save too much with a fixer. When the bubble bursts, fixers will just sit there. You may be able to get one at a steep discount.
> Where I live in the Thousand Oaks/Westlake area, where a joint income of
> $250,000 is not unusual, I have a feeling the prices will drop over the next
> few years but not as much as one would expect or I once thought. A
> $650,000 property might drop to $525,000 but that’s it.
Odds are that prices will drop a lot more since there is no reason for anyone to buy a house while values are dropping when they can rent in the same area for half as much.
Fifteen years ago people who lived in Thousand Oaks/Westlake made a lot more money than average and that didn't stop the average home price from dropping ~50% from 1990 to 1994.
Prices will stop dropping when people (like me) can buy the homes and rent them out at a profit. As a rule of thumb most investors won't buy real estate until the monthly rent is more than 1% of the purchase price.
Then goober Says:
> I think Randy H. is dead on! The wealthy look out for themselves and
> other “haves” no matter which way the lean politically.
"The Wealthy" may "look out for themselves" but they can not control the economy. The "wealthy" did not do very well trying to stop the price of S. Cal Real Estate from dropping in the 90's (lots of "wealthy" people lost millions) or stop the huge drop in tech stock prices a few years back (I have some "wealthy" Borrowers who lost tens of millions from 2000 to 2001).
"In a bubble, the "potential" is usually priced into the house."
Wow, is that ever true! When I think of all the listings I've had to endure over the last 3 or 4 years that featured "the potential" I could just feed squirrels!
Tell you what, when you finish the barn, deck, garden, RV parking, 2nd. bath, guest house, garage and converted chicken coop please feel free to give me a call!
It just fries me when I see people that have sat on their @ss (apparently for years) attempt to cash in on the "boom" and think they can charge what thoughtful and diligent owners are getting! (This is coat tailing in it's lowest form).
Excellent points. The big difference I see is that if we've been conned in the traditional sense, once our bank account is depleted the con has to move on and find a new mark. When it comes to FB's it's the con that never ends! The minute they scratch out the check for the mortgage payment/s they have 29 days, 23 hours and 59 minutes until it's "bohica time" all over again!
Jon, excellent commentary on FB denial mentality. We should coin a new term for it (something more succint than "FB co-dependent denial syndrome") then add it to the HB Glossary. Right up there with "Escalation of Committment".
Jon, excellent commentary on FB denial mentality. We should coin a new term for it (something more succint than “FB co-dependent denial syndrome”) then add it to the HB Glossary. Right up there with “Escalation of Committment”.
I think Randy H. is dead on! The wealthy look out for themselves and other “haves” no matter which way the lean politically.
then FAB said:
“The Wealthy” may “look out for themselves” but they can not control the economy. The “wealthy” did not do very well trying to stop the price of S. Cal Real Estate from dropping in the 90’s (lots of “wealthy” people lost millions) or stop the huge drop in tech stock prices a few years back (I have some “wealthy” Borrowers who lost tens of millions from 2000 to 2001).
now I reply:
a) Wealth is relative, not absolute.
b) Just because the "wealthy" lost in absolute terms during the 90s real-estate downturn, does not mean they were no longer wealthy, comparatively.
c) In fact, the massive acceleration in wealth concentration with the top 1% occurred at almost that exact moment. These may just be interesting correlations, but many economists believe it was the early 90s recession that widened the gap between the rich and the not-rich.
Conclusion: just because FAB knew some rich people who lost $10s of millions, the odds are overwhelming that not only were they still "rich" compared to every else afterwards, but they were even richer, comparatively.
Yeah, how is it that a $1,088 payment becomes $1,660 again? SoCalMortguy and I are definitely on the same wavelength. Maybe I should just say the same things that catch his eye are typically among the first things I would notice too.
"New Spanish Tiled Roofs". WTF?
Oh! I get it, as opposed to the "old" roof meaning this are soon to be repartments?
> a) Wealth is relative, not absolute.
> b) Just because the “wealthy” lost in absolute
> terms during the 90s real-estate downturn, does
> not mean they were no longer wealthy, comparatively.
> c) In fact, the massive acceleration in wealth
> concentration with the top 1% occurred at almost
> that exact moment. These may just be interesting
> correlations, but many economists believe it was the
> early 90s recession that widened the gap between
> the rich and the not-rich.
I agree with all of this except that "the early 90s recession that widened the gap between the rich and the not-rich." since over time every country throughout history had had a wide gap between the rich and not-rich that just kept getting wider until there was some kind of revolt (it got wider during the recession, but the recession did not "make it wider", just like the planet is warmer, but the guys driving around in Hummers paid for with HELOCs over the past few years did not "make it warmer"). The US will be no different and the gap between rich and not-rich will just keep getting wider until there is some kind of revolt (this will hopefully not happen until I am dead). The point I was trying to make is that the "wealthy may look out for themselves" but they can not change macro economic forces and just like Tom Perkins (who just built a cool new boat for ~$150 Million) could not save his wealthy friends who owned tech stocks in 2002 Gordon Getty will not be able to help his neighbors who own $20 Million + for Pac Heights homes.
I agree with all of this except that “the early 90s recession that widened the gap between the rich and the not-rich.” since over time every country throughout history had had a wide gap between the rich and not-rich that just kept getting wider until there was some kind of revolt (it got wider during the recession, but the recession did not “make it wider”, just like the planet is warmer, but the guys driving around in Hummers paid for with HELOCs over the past few years did not “make it warmer”).
This process is not magical, somehow preordained by the mystic ether. It is a macroeconomic process, likely constrained and guided by sociological and circumstantial factors. Recessions indeed are one cause of this phenomenon. Another, much slower, cause is disproportionate economic growth. But loss factors have a bigger effect on the system than gain factors.
I didn't know that was controversial, or that anyone disputed it. I admit I was wrong.
And what does global warming have to do with it? The analogy is a non sequitur. Everyone knows the reduction of global piracy has caused global warming.
I'm following your comments for a couple of reasons.....I, too, am watching the Austin/San Antonio market to see if it's the right place in which to purchase. Also, you seem to follow the same sites I do....
Here's one that confirms the MA situation and is a pretext of things to come:
Add to the mix FOUR cities in TX are in the top ten for increased foreclosures, it's begining to sound like the same song is being played across the nation. This is a GREAT time to be on the sidelines, flush w/cash. I'm going to sqeeze....and sqeeze.....and sqeeze this market for everything it's worth. This type of opportunity comes along but once in a person's life....holding all the cards in a real estate deal.
My personal favorite tactic is to decide on two or three houses and then submit a "Multiple Buyer's Offer" on all of them at the same time. If anyone is interested in the details....let me know....I'll be happy to share. Now, know this....you won't be getting any Christmas cards from the sellers but you will dictate the terms, especially PRICE.
Developers are going directly to the public to sell pre-construction sites. The last time I peeked, they would NEVER deal with the "unwashed masses" and only work with the "high class" professional brokers.
A caption from the home page reads....."Finally....Buyers meet sellers in the booming Real Estate market."
Question: If it's a booming real estate market, would they need such a site?
Dunno....maybe I'm just too stupid to figure out this here real estate thing. I'd better play it safe and go to a mortgage broker or real estate agent and trust them to tell me what I should do
Yep, here's the answer to the current market situation.
"This isn't a soft landing, it's harder than a soft landing," Toll told Reuters in an interview. But he denied the market was headed for a more dramatic decline in prices as some observers fear. "We are not crashing," he said.
He argued that demand for housing and consumer confidence in general have been hurt by concerns about terrorism, the war in Iraq and the response of the U.S. government to Hurricane Katrina.
Robert Toll, chairman and chief executive of Toll Brothers
Now that he's shared his expertise, it's clear as a bell. Last year when sales were soaring and there was no end in sight, terroism and the war had no effect. I know everyone across the country is in a state of complete panic over the Fed's response to Katrina......GIVE ME A BREAK!
Then, further in the interview he says:
"Next year, the company expects to build between 7,000 and 8,000 homes at an average price of $635,000 to $645,000. That's down from this year's expected production of 8,600 to 8,900 homes at an average price of $685,000 to $690,000."
Now, the average price will go down; but consider this:
Hard costs for land cannot be discounted, so where will they adjust their costs to maintain profit margins? Does materials and labor come to mind? If so, people will be getting a house with lower quality materials; put together with cheaper labor.....sound like a quality issue to you?
With so many new homes with SERIOUS structural defects, and rising, will this add to the problem? I don't think I'll be buying a Toll House....cookie maybe; but not my home.
I guess you will never grasp the hidden truth of animal cruelty until you yourself truly are victimised in a very bad way by lets say..the system…with very little possibility for redemption or recourse for no fault of yours.
I am sorry but animal cruelty really does not bother me. Do you know how many humans are suffering as we speak? I do not have time or energy to worry about food being mistreated.