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Why your house is a terrible investment


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2014 Aug 18, 11:57pm   56,134 views  185 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

http://jlcollinsnh.com/2013/05/29/why-your-house-is-a-terrible-investment/

I know I’m treading dangerous ground here. But before you get out the tar and feathers, let’s do a little thought experiment together. Imagine over a cup or coffee or a glass of wine we get to talking about investments.

#investing

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165   Rin   2014 Aug 25, 1:56pm  

Strategist says

Ha ha ha. You should move where your favorite escorts and strippers are. What if you are horny and don't have the time to travel around? With a wife you can just jump on her when you feel like.

That is when she's not having a headache.

I guess that within the USA, our options of limited.

You live in let's say Seattle metro, you go for Vancouver BC

Detroit 'burbs (avoid the city at all costs if you want to live) for Windsor Ontario

Buffalo NY for Niagara Falls-to-Toronto Ontario

Plattsburgh NY or Burlington VT for Montreal Quebec

San Diego CA for Tijuana in Baja California

And that's about it. Everything else has a lot of road or air miles.

166   Strategist   2014 Aug 25, 2:10pm  

Rin says

Strategist says

Ha ha ha. You should move where your favorite escorts and strippers are. What if you are horny and don't have the time to travel around? With a wife you can just jump on her when you feel like.

That is when she's not having a headache.

I guess that within the USA, our options of limited.

You live in let's say Seattle metro, you go for Vancouver BC

Detroit 'burbs (avoid the city at all costs if you want to live) for Windsor Ontario

Buffalo NY for Niagara Falls-to-Toronto Ontario

Plattsburgh NY or Burlington VT for Montreal Quebec

San Diego CA for Tijuana in Baja California

And that's about it. Everything else has a lot of road or air miles.

Ever consider writing a book and setting up web sites? You will get very rich, and all those escorts and hookers would be a tax write off.

167   Strategist   2014 Aug 25, 2:16pm  

Rin says

That is when she's not having a headache.

Story of my life. :(

168   JH   2014 Aug 25, 3:12pm  

Strategist says

I thought you were renting a condo.

$1,800 rent for a house worth $480,000 is a good value in So Cal.

Hells no...family is too big for that. Since we have 1 bath, the boys were potty trained in the backyard :)

We are saving a ton and fairly comfortable while the kids are not yet HS age.

169   Eman   2014 Aug 25, 4:02pm  

Strategist says

You could buy more properties and leverage yourself. You could also buy homebuilder stocks. Housing is not gonna reach a peak until home building reaches a peak.

Well, I have been doing well with apartment buildings until recently. Deals are hard to come by now.

I ain't gonna gamble on homebuilder stocks. My risk tolerance is quite low.

Not sure if I would agree with your last statement given that the homebuilders got burned really bad this last round and hopefully have learned their lesson.

170   Eman   2014 Aug 25, 4:05pm  

Rin says

I guess I'll add this to my money/happiness thread.

http://patrick.net/?p=1238061

Nice. Who said money doesn't buy happiness? Try to have some first. For us, money really really helps. I have been getting out of bed between 9 and 10am every morning. Now that my daughter is back to school, I have to wake up at 8:15am. Why the long face? :--(

171   Eman   2014 Aug 25, 4:18pm  

JH says

I don't see too much similarity in today's market as compared with previous markets. The only exception is that the coastal markets are more expensive than most heartland markets. Demand, space, etc...

Of course you don't see the similarity. Every cycle, it will look and feel different, but we typically end up with the same result. The last bubble was different. It was a once in a lifetime event. I don't expect to see it again in our lifetime. We're gradually getting back to a normal market, where housing will get frothy in prices, but nothing like the last time. The last time was different.

JH says

Today, mortgage rates are low, wages are flat, stocks are very very high. You may still see gains in the short term, but I don't see the fundamentals that will support similar long term gains. But if there is one thing we do know...the market is carefully manipulated and too big to fail.

Wages will likely heading up soon if not already IMO. The Bay Area has all indicators of a recovery. We already have wage inflation in the last 12-18 months or so. I'm surprised at how much my tenants and applicants are making now. The same cannot be said about the economy in Washington DC and elsewhere.

Blackstone was also in our market. However, they only bought to flip and that was last year. There's practically no more foreclosures at the courthouse steps. They were buying a lot last year and the later portion of 2012 in several markets where they could achieve a 7% cap rate, but that is no longer the case.

172   B.A.C.A.H.   2014 Aug 26, 5:47am  

It's the reason I haven't "patricked" in months and would like to undo my account, but I cannot figure out how to do so.

Because the site has become a microcosm of Bay Area Real Estate; it's all about face: keeping face, showing face, in your face.

Face It, it's time to Face The Facts

173   gsr   2014 Aug 26, 6:12am  

E-man says

Limited capital. Like many others, I was an average Joe in the Silicon Valley holding a low 6 figures engineering job.

Quitting my job to pursue real estate was the best decision ever.

This explains why it sucks to be a software engineer in Silly-con Valley. Just like failed actors in Hollywood, most people have been foolishly chasing their dreams of a multi-million dollar IPO while giving away their all hard-earned money to their landlords or banks. Many of them don't realize that their dream is also possible somewhere else.

174   Eman   2014 Aug 26, 9:49am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

It's the reason I haven't "patricked" in months and would like to undo my account, but I cannot figure out how to do so.

Because the site has become a microcosm of Bay Area Real Estate; it's all about face: keeping face, showing face, in your face.

Face It, it's time to Face The Facts

It's not all about FACE. It's about trying to get out of the rat race. You think it's easy to leave a "perceived secure" 6 figure job to go into an unknown world and hope to make it? The fact is..... Most of us would love to get off the rat race, but not all of us are willing to make the short-term sacrifice for the potential long-term gain. There were a lot of what ifs.

You and Thomaswong would be a perfect example. You guys were here before most of us. Unfortunately, you guys didn't recognize the opportunity in the Silicon Valley, and now feeling bitter about it. Had you made the short-term sacrifice and bought something on the Peninsula, you guys would be sitting pretty now. Had Patrick bought in Menlo Park back in 1998-1999, there would be no patrick.net now.

Don't hate.

175   Strategist   2014 Aug 26, 9:59am  

E-man says

I have been getting out of bed between 9 and 10am every morning. Now that my daughter is back to school, I have to wake up at 8:15am. Why the long face? :--(

I feel so sorry for you.

E-man says

You guys were here before most of us. Unfortunately, you guys didn't recognize the opportunity in the Silicon Valley, and now feeling bitter about it. Had you made the short-term sacrifice and bought something on the Peninsula, you guys would be sitting pretty now.

That once in a life time opportunity has come and gone. The next one will come in another 80 years.

176   CDon   2014 Aug 26, 12:18pm  

E-man says

You and Thomaswong would be a perfect example. You guys were here before most of us. Unfortunately, you guys didn't recognize the opportunity in the Silicon Valley, and now feeling bitter about it. Had you made the short-term sacrifice and bought something on the Peninsula, you guys would be sitting pretty now. Had Patrick bought in Menlo Park back in 1998-1999, there would be no patrick.net now.

Don't hate.

@E-man, Speaking of our old friend Mr. Wong you know how he would tell us about his 1993 purchase in Los Gatos? How he allegedly bought in the last year before "hype" took over in SFBA? Well, as much as this is the posture that he claims now, I was recently looking over an old thread and came across his first comment here and lo and behold, here is what he said:

thomas.wong87 says

Here is my sad story and what happened.

I was told to bid 1.5% above each bidder. Which came over 10% asking. I did just that and offer was accepted.

However, i lost my job and backed out of the deal getting back my deposit. The house did sell at asking.

Since then I have been renting.

Since that last experience, I been renting, and waiting, for such practice to be exposed.

/?p=16857&page=2#comments

So I have to ask, is every bear on Patnet a habitual liar??? Suddenly his whole persona here now made so much more sense. No 20+ year homeowner would have been as perpetually angry as he was - turns out he was lying about his purchase and has been renting the whole time.

No wonder Thomas seemed like such an angry, societal malcontent given that he had really been in his 21st year of renting with no end in sight. Now too it seems like he has gone, 2 months with no posts - apparently he finally realized his "holdout and wait for pre 1993 prices" isn't going to happen and quietly returned to his perma-rental for whatever time is left in his life.

So unbelievable and so sad...

177   anonymous   2014 Aug 26, 12:39pm  

Yea, like OMG the horror of renting

Its like not nearly as uber cool as mortgage debtorship

178   JH   2014 Aug 26, 3:42pm  

errc says

Yea, like OMG the horror of renting

Heavy stock investors must have the same conversations. What a miserable way to live. It's one thing to be educated but another to be obsessed with every single financial decision you have ever made.

179   B.A.C.A.H.   2014 Sep 4, 5:39am  

E-man says

You and Thomaswong would be a perfect example. ...you guys didn't recognize the opportunity in the Silicon
Valley, and now feeling bitter about it. Had you made the short-term sacrifice
and bought something on the Peninsula, you guys would be sitting pretty now. Had
Patrick bought in Menlo Park back in 1998-1999, there would be no patrick.net
now.

See what I mean?, this web site's become all about face, keeping face, making face, losing face, "in your face".
This fella, who doesn't know me, knows what I didn't do ("didn't recognize"),
knows how I feel ("bitter"),
shoulda done ("Had you made"),
knows what I coulda been doing ("you guys would be sitting pretty"),
knows what someone else woulda done ("Had
Patrick bought in Menlo Park ").
Welcome to his smarty pants world.
Welcome to what has become of Patrick's website.
Welcome to what has become of the Bay Area.

180   Eman   2014 Sep 4, 10:40am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

See what I mean?, this web site's become all about face, keeping face, making face, losing face, "in your face".

This fella, who doesn't know me, knows what I didn't do ("didn't recognize"),

knows how I feel ("bitter"),

shoulda done ("Had you made"),

knows what I coulda been doing ("you guys would be sitting pretty"),

knows what someone else woulda done ("Had

Patrick bought in Menlo Park ").

Welcome to his smarty pants world.

Welcome to what has become of Patrick's website.

Welcome to what has become of the Bay Area.

That has always been your theme. Everything is about face to you. Your co-workers bought houses in the Fortress, you believe they bought them to save face. Your co-workers drive nice cars, you believe they bought them to save face. Has it ever occur to you that they bought in the Fortress because of better schools? Have you ever considered they drive a nice car because it's much more sturdy than a Civic or your Camry?

People have different priorities in life. You made a choice to buy in East San Jose and was bitter about it when it lost a lot of its value during the downturn while their houses held up in value much better. I don't know if you're bitter that they look down on you because of where you live, but I couldn't careless about other people's opinion. If you have a problem with that, that's your issue.

Apparently, Thomaswong also lied about his purchase in Los Gatos back in the early 90's. Could it be that he tried to "save face" by saying he bought there? Hmm..................... Not sure who are the ones trying to save face here.

181   B.A.C.A.H.   2014 Sep 5, 1:16am  

Dude,
Your rant says more about you than it says about me.
Thanks for sharing your True Colors!

182   Eman   2014 Sep 7, 10:21am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Dude,

Your rant says more about you than it says about me.

Thanks for sharing your True Colors!

What color is that? You're the one who is having issue with where people choose to buy and live. You're the one that's having problem with what type of cars people drive. Everything is about face to you. Could it be that you're having a self-esteem issue?

Unlike you, I couldn't careless where people want to live or car they drive. I don't give a damn what people think of me and where I live.

The reason people are on Patnet is because they want to know about where we are in the cycle of the housing market. You didn't see the bottom and gave a lot of bad advice through out the years. The same goes for Thomaswong. I respect you two because you two were older. But giving bad advice is.....well, bad advice. It's so true that respect must be earned. It cannot be given. Lesson learned.

I talk to other folks in their 60's and 70's on a regular basis because I don't have a JOB. Some are real estate investors themselves. They give a perspective about the Bay Area since the 60's and 70's. They acknowledge the change and understand why housing prices are where they are. On the other hand, it seems like you and Thomaswong are still living in the past and not receptive to change. Hope and change are what get people out of bed everyday. Fear is what keeps us from getting what we want.

What I have learned is that HOW you think matters. Fear and self doubt are real. However, don't be afraid of them. Respect them, keep going and move past them. Fear and doubt can be bridged with knowledge and insight. People who KNOW this are those who have crossed that river and are standing on the other side.

Since you and Thomas were older, I thought you two would be much wiser, and I could learn from you two. Unfortunately, wisdom doesn't always come with age for everyone. Another lesson learned for me.

I guess I should try to learn from those that have succeeded in the real estate investment arena in the Bay Area instead of listening to two old guys, who even though grew up here, didn't have the foresight and are stuck in the past. Like they said, your attitude determines your altitude. People are where they are in life for a reason.

Good luck to you and Thomas.

183   FortWayne   2014 Sep 7, 2:31pm  

Bellingham Bill says

While the past can't predict the future, clearly the current status quo is biased towards a rising cost of living in housing.

That's the problem with more dual income families. Once families start to have 2 working members to pay for the house, prices increase. You aren't going to get this kind of a jump again unless society restructures to a 3 income family ownership...

184   JH   2014 Sep 8, 1:41am  

The Professor says

B.A.C.A.H. says

See what I mean?, this web site's become all about face, keeping face, making face, losing face, "in your face".

Dinner?

The 2005-like conversations are nauseating. I don't know why I feel compelled to counter all the bulls. But I feel like I have seen this exact thing in my lifetime...just 10 years ago. "It's different this time." All the buzzwords are on the table. Don't worry guys, when the house of cards falls, you won't be vomiting in your mouth everytime you see a new post on patnet.

185   FunTime   2014 Sep 8, 9:20am  

FortWayne says

You aren't going to get this kind of a jump again unless society restructures to a 3 income family ownership...

That's happening in SFBA! Embarrassed not to provide supporting information but have read a couple articles about how multi-family dwellings are becoming more common here.

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