patrick.net

Renter,

Thank for the hard work.

hanera says

Renter,

Thank for the hard work.

No problem.

The numbers say it all. The moment you get into wealthier neighborhoods, the less new construction you see, and you wonder why real estate in the Peninsula is expensive. See how anti-development these NIMBYs? Go ahead and justify all you want.

I was always amazed at the condos being built right along side Highway 101. People want to live next to a noisy highway like that?

jvolstad says

I was always amazed at the condos being built right along side Highway 101. People want to live next to a noisy highway like that?

A well built complex can be pretty quiet. Put a lot of trees along the highway. don't build across from a sound reflecting hill, fill the walls with reenforced concrete and use good double paned glass.

City: Cupertino
Location: Blaney Ave and Stevens Creek
Builder: Johnstone Moyer inc
Project name: Biltmore
APN ?
Type of housing: Apartments
# of units 80
Link(s)
http://www.johnstonemoyer.com/portfolio-q10060-Biltmore_Apartments.aspx

New Renter says

For instance getting your neighbor's heat in winter, A/C in summer - Bonus

Hearing your neighbors getting it on - Blows (pun intended)

Being able to walk to work - Bonus

Carrying your groceries from the parking lot to your residence - Blows.

It's never really that cold or that hot, so the AC/heat argument is out.

I agree hearing people have sex is fun, but I'd rather have a room mate in a SFH.

If I can walk to work from a MFH, then I can do it from a SFH. But I would wager I couldn't do it from either.

As you alluded, the lack of a garage or parking dedication is something that could cause me problems (or other people problems with me) in short order.

Thank you New Renter, you really adds a great value by the information you. Ring to the table.

How many new units is that on the peninsula?

Around 800,000 people live there.

A couple thousands new units aren't gonna cut it.

Heraclitusstudent says

How many new units is that on the peninsula?

Around 800,000 people live there.

A couple thousands new units aren't gonna cut it.

Again these are only the units:
1) I have data for so far
2) That are actively under construction or have very recently ( less than 18 mo) been completed.

Santa Clara county had - according to the 2012 census - 631,920 housing units. Of those 4.4% were unoccupied and 1.82% available for rent. That's 27,804 unoccupied and only 11375 for rent.

http://www.usa.com/santa-clara-county-ca-housing.htm

You seriously don't think the 16390 new units I've counted so far will help that shortage?

Santa Clara County and San Jose in particular is the fastest growing county in California. The construction is not keeping pace. For 16M sq feet of apartment space, some commerical space are going up just as fast in proportion.

5% vacancy rate will lead to rent hike. You'll need 7% vacancy rate to stop rents from going up. When net migration is hitting 30K people plus, that is not enough to bump down the vacancy rates.

New Renter says

You seriously don't think the 16390 new units I've counted so far will help that shortage?

It will help in a relative way, but I think it is very far from answering the supply-demand imbalance.

New demand is coming all the time. It is limited only to the extent people are priced out.

SFace says

When net migration is hitting 30K people plus, that is not enough to bump down the vacancy rates.

Couple of things:

1) Average annual net population change for all of Santa Clara County between 2007-13 (most recently available data) has been 23k, not 30k.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/06/06085.html

2) Average household size is 2 people:

http://www.city-data.com/county/Santa_Clara_County-CA.html

so 1-2 bdrm apartment is just fine for the majority of those folks. Lower income folks will likely double or triple up as necessary to make rent. Boomerang kids will live at home and not contribute to the housing shortage.

3) Those 16k new residences are more numerous than the 11,400 new households. My number of 16k is also incomplete, there may be more projects yet unaccounted for and even more in the pipeline.

Granted there is only so much good land to build new housing on; however more efficient use of existing land with MFH can go a long way to alleviating housing pressure (like tearing down !@#$%^$ sports stadiums and replacing them with apartment highrises.)

There is also a LOT of untapped open land still left in the hills. It would cost a bit more to develop but at some point it will become necessary to do so.

and when will those 16K new residences be delivered? within 12 months, 24? or ever?

No doubt there is a construction boom off the bottom in 2010-2012, especially in San Jose, but it nowhere near enough to bring down vacancy rates which drives rent.

New Renter,

Did you include apartments and condos built for leasing? For example, the 200+ Rose Bowl condo units in Cupertino are for rentals only.

SFace says

and when will those 16K new residences be delivered? within 12 months, 24?

Rents are up too, while people wait.

SFace says

and when will those 16K new residences be delivered? within 12 months, 24? or ever?

No doubt there is a construction boom off the bottom in 2010-2012, especially in San Jose, but it nowhere near enough to bring down vacancy rates which drives rent.

You have a fair question. Projects do hit delays which is why I tried to only list projects underway. IMO they are much more likely to be completed in a reasonable time frame than projects at the approval stage.

Rew says

Rents are up too, while people wait.

Is compensation skyrocketing too? Rent increases have to come from somewhere.

hanera says

New Renter,

Did you include apartments and condos built for leasing? For example, the 200+ Rose Bowl condo units in Cupertino are for rentals only.

I did not discriminate against leased vs rent vs own, all I looked at was whether it was being built for someone to live in.

New Renter says

Is compensation skyrocketing too? Rent increases have to come from somewhere.

Santa Clara is one of the fastest growing counties in the US and SJ Mineta is the 2nd fastest growing air port. There are lots of people here, and for the population, not a huge availability of places to stay.

To take a page from "Fox" ... guess people will have to give up cell service and cable TV to make rent? (Truth is, obviously, they don't have to do that at all as median income for SJ is 90K, and 100K for a family. Rents are up because the market can bear it and basic supply and demand.)

I like your thread and optimism, though I'm afraid all the posting of building stats here isn't going to suddenly change something in the real world.

New Renter says

Is compensation skyrocketing too? Rent increases have to come from
somewhere.

Avalon Bay is amazing predicting rent. Here is their forecast for 2014:

From Mgmt who obviously understand economic, supply and demand

"Based on what we can tell you right now just in aggregate, we're expecting blended rent change to average in the 4% range over the course of the year. Obviously, that is cyclical as you move through the seasons throughout the year, but that would be the average for the year on a blended basis." (Northern CA leads the way with slowdwon in DC)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1982791-avalonbay-communities-management-discusses-q4-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=5&p=qanda&l=last

SFace says

Santa Clara County and San Jose in particular is the fastest growing county in California. The construction is not keeping pace. For 16M sq feet of apartment space, some commerical space are going up just as fast in proportion.

5% vacancy rate will lead to rent hike. You'll need 7% vacancy rate to stop rents from going up. When net migration is hitting 30K people plus, that is not enough to bump down the vacancy rates.

Our county assessor, Larry Stone, mentioned that the vacancy rate in San Jose is currently at 3.9% a couple of weeks ago at SJREI. No wonder why rents have been going up quite a bit in the recent years. Based on Avalon Bay's projection, it appears that the rate of rent increase will slow down a bit this year although 4% in rent increase annually is not bad. I'll take that anyday.

This is a Greta work NewRenter , really appreciate for pulling it all together