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FortWayne
2014 Jan 17, 4:54am
lol can we call this one of the worst investment calls of all time on pat net?
i remember when sface was arguing tooth and nail how the holiday shopping season would save penneys, then he deleted his post of course when goran called him out on that
SFAce is notorious for giving real bad investment advice.
Eman
2014 Jan 24, 3:16pm
SFAce is notorious for giving real bad investment advice.
SFace gives a lot of sound advice on here. Like anything in life, there are some hiccups along the way. It proves that he's human and is subject to bad decision making sometimes.
You sir, time and time again, have been telling people on here not to buy houses at the bottom of the housing market. You have caused potential buyers millions of dollars combined with your unsound advice. Why haven't you apologized Patnet potential buyers for your unsound advice? Before you criticize other people, take a look at yourself in the mirror first.
SFace
2014 Jan 25, 1:42am
lol can we call this one of the worst investment calls of all time on pat net?
i remember when sface was arguing tooth and nail how the holiday shopping season would save penneys, then he deleted his post of course when goran called him out on that
SFAce is notorious for giving real bad investment advice.
Im not that stubborn, sold went Ackman went out and saw the disasterous home store and furniture. File it under stupid thing that will never be repeated.
Whether I am right or not, I only say things to the best as I understand them and try to help. Being negative, funny does not add value.
sface i think you are probably a swell guy but you probably should stop giving stock advice to people, its making you look like an asshole
zzyzzx
2014 Feb 14, 10:09am
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/soros-exits-j-c-penney-003011791.html
Soros exits J.C.Penney
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Soros Fund Management, one of the hedge fund industry's most closely watched investors, exited J.C. Penney and trimmed its stake in Herbalife late last year, marking a notable shift in course only months after buying into the companies.
The New York-based firm, which ranked as J.C. Penney's second biggest investor, sold 19.98 million shares during the last three months of 2013, according to a regulatory filing on Friday. It also cut its stake in Herbalife, where it was the fifth biggest investor.
J.C. Penney and Herbalife spent most of last year in the spotlight, with the retailer's stock price losing half its value as an ambitious overhaul fizzled and the nutrition and weight loss company surging 139 percent in the wake of a dramatic faceoff between some of the world's biggest investors.
So when Soros bought 17.4 million J.C. Penney shares in April, not long after Ron Johnson was ousted as chief executive officer, investors cheered and pushed the share price up.
But as the company's once-ambitious turnaround plans lost steam and a former CEO returned to the helm, its biggest investor, William Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management, abruptly exited in August. The share price kept tumbling and has lost 68 percent in the last 12 months.
While Soros was a steady J.C. Penney supporter through the end of the third quarter, the firm evidently changed its mind in the last months of 2013.
It had company in the form of other prominent managers who also exited. Richard Perry, whose Perry Corp owned 10 million shares, sold out, and Kyle Bass's Hayman Capital liquidated its 5.6 million shares. David Tepper's Appaloosa Management sold all of its 737,800 shares.
lol
why did sface delete his post arguing about how jc penney was going to come back during the shopping season?
SG&A are fixed, It works both way, if you can improve gross margins with the same fixed costs, the cash flow turns around easilly. That's why momentum is huge and we have seen negative momentum. Q2 is likley YOY decline, but Q3 and Q4 their big season will comp positive.
good call! haha
SFace
2014 Mar 11, 7:24am
JCP with MU is just going back to basics. (whatever they did in 2011.)
Just wanted to inventory all my stock recommendation in 2013 because certain...:
http://patrick.net/?p=1227427
July 25 Facebook $34
March 11, Facebook $72
Return 110%
http://patrick.net/?p=1226812
July 10, JCP $17.08
March 10, JCP: $8.65
Return -50%
http://patrick.net/?p=1229079
Sep 6, 2013 Apple $498
March 11, Apple w/dividends $542
Return 9%
http://patrick.net/?p=1224989
May 21, 2013 Diamond Foods $17
March 11, 2014 $30
Return 75%
10K each in the above 4 would have yielded about 36% positive return in aggregate for peiods May 21 - Sep 6th 2013. Index was around 15-18% when S&P was around 1,650 in the summer. JCP was obviously a bad call. Apple was not a good call. learn from mistakes.
No one has a 100% record, if you are, either you are god or you never made a mistake in your life or even tried.
2014 is a tougher year, any thoughts for considertion?
I am looking at Potash, Transocean, Yahoo, Sodastream, Newmont, and the homebuilder sector. Heck, citigroup looks like a great buy and stash. Fannie Mae was one I let slipped away, damnit.
Biotech is where it's been at.
HAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!
Maybe not employment wise, but stock-wise for sure. Best stocks to invest in for early retirement are small-cap biotechs - if you can handle the risk. Parse the phase 1 and preclinical data and partnership affinity and if you like it jump into phase 2 and 3 trials (Phase 2 have the best risk-reward ratio while phase 3 return most bang for the buck but also fail most often). If you have a medical/microbiology and statistical understanding it's awesome. And you can help small biotechs on their way to develop novel treatments :)
New Renter
2014 Mar 11, 2:59pm
Biotech is where it's been at.
HAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!
Maybe not employment wise, but stock-wise for sure. Best stocks to invest in for early retirement are small-cap biotechs - if you can handle the risk. Parse the phase 1 and preclinical data and partnership affinity and if you like it jump into phase 2 and 3 trials (Phase 2 have the best risk-reward ratio while phase 3 return most ank for the buck but also fail most often). If you have a medical/microbiology and statistical understanding it's awesome. And you can help small biotechs on their way to develop novel treatments :)
Stop it, your killing me!
FortWayne
2014 Sep 26, 3:19pm
2014 is a tougher year, any thoughts for considertion?
I'm in healthcare and banking mostly. Some tech, but not much.
Thinking of investing into MLP's, but I'm not really sold on it yet. It's all over Motley Fool, not sure if he is making a fool out of me.
Y
2016 Feb 29, 9:10pm
Just as I predicted...
And the award for best department store in a starring role goes to ... JCPenney!
While Macy's, Kohl's, Sears and many other big retailers reported lousy results for the holidays due to unseasonably warm weather and competition from a company named after a river in South America, JCPenney has staged an impressive turnaround.
JCPenney (JCP) reported same-store sales growth of 4.1% in the fourth quarter and predicted another 3% to 4% jump for all of 2016.
The stock surged 15% Friday and was up another 6% Monday. Shares have now soared more than 50% so far this year and are near their highest levels since October 2014.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/29/investing/jcpenney-penny-sales-comeback/index.html
Step aside boyz, J.Paul Softshell has entered the room...
Shopping season around the corner. I recommend BUY.
FortWayne
2016 Feb 29, 9:27pm
They've been between 5 and 10 for a while, it's a trend for them now. Unless they reinvent themselves, they are a dead company.
I don't invest into retail and restaurant. Those things are like fads, they come and go. And once they go, they rarely come back, and never bigger.
I think if trend continues, just for a quick money scheme buy at $5 during winter, sell for $10 when season starts, and wait till it drops to 5 again. That's their charts for last 3 years...
Strategist
2017 Nov 6, 3:23pm
JCP Background (Permanent of Temporary problems)?
JCP has a 100+ year background. 1,100+ department stores scattered throughout the United States and an online store via JCP.com.
Technology spares no one. Welcome to the internet age.
All the major department stores will come out with plans to adapt by bringing a new shopping experience. All will fail.
Department stores, Realtors, Auto dealers and taxis, are not needed or wanted anymore. They are all doomed.
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This is a stock I have been following closely for a long time. Bought when Soros bought and sold before the last earning and made 40% in one month. I have been thinking about them a lot lately and now recommend a strong buy. Here’s a summary of my reasoning and material background.
Who’s long?
Soros and Ackman. A 25% stake held by two of the most respected investor is a good reason for me. Ackman changed my family when (I mom, brothers and close friends, in law) placed a bet on GGP when they announced bankruptcy and promptly went on for a fourty bagger in 4 years using the same reasoning applied by Ackman (real estate was worth too much). If there is a question that asks who is your favorite author, it would be Soros (albeit someone writes on his behalf)
JCP Background (Permanent of Temporary problems)?
JCP has a 100+ year background. 1,100+ department stores scattered throughout the United States and an online store via JCP.com. Over the years, they used their equity to purchase 400+ stores and own the HQ and distribution facilities. The non-owned stores are likely on long term lease with long term options and likely very favorable. In a nutshell, their cost structure is as favorable as any retailer out there. Basically at a market cap of 3.7B, you are getting Penney at less than 4M per department store and $4sale/market cap and an enterprise value above shares (if you count the true market value of real estate that is not marked-up on the balance sheet). The market is pricing Penney like it would be dead (which may or may not be the case). So obviously understanding whether Penney’s problems are permanent vs. temporary is of great interest to me.
The demise of JCP
The great recession impacted everyone including JCP. It hit JCP consumers especially hard unlike Macy’s whose customers are more upscale and wealthy. Unlike the rest that recovered from the recession, JCP sank further and is especially painful given the bull market in 2009-2013.
Long story short, Ackman kicked out Ullman and Ron Johnson was brought on board. Ron brought his own team from Apple and installed his expensive and risky vision and likely created a hostile work environoment bewteen Ullmans and Johnson's people. The strategy employed by JCP should be studied by every business school now in America as it is fascinating. (When I was in college, Dell and IBM was the study case, but now, JCP and BBRY would be my study). The huge difference between Apple retail and JCP retail is about 1M SKU’s and customers that seek the deals. Apple sells Iphone, Ipad, Ibook for the same $599, 1,099 price and sells itself. JCP is a completely different beast. Ron Johnson’s fit was a disaster and under his watch, burned through 1B in capex and burned through another 1B in operating losses and alienated customers. Revenue went from the 17B’s to 12B, practically unheard of in the retail industry to fall that far that fast. SSS was negative 25%. The financial metric was an outright disaster and the PR was a disaster. Further, Johnson got into some legal issues with Martha Stewart and Macy. If there was ever a board you want to be a fly on the wall, JCP was the one to see what the Board asks and how Johnson responded. In March, Johnson out and familiar face Ullman in. Penney was described as a disaster, mess and much worst. Soros buy.
Here was some of JCP’s problems:
•Fair and square pricing in lieu of discounts on top of discounts. This was a bad maneuver. Customers like to feel like they got a deal and there are customers that buy and not look at price tag. In the first category, you lose customers who are trained on feeling like they got a deal, in the second category, you underpriced the product and lost revenue. The retail world sells inventory in full retail price when it is fresh off the shelves and discount it to get rid of it. It is the straightforward and proven way to manage inventory. When you sell 100K different things, that is the only way to go. This is a temporary problem not a perm problem.
•Cap-ex and shop in shop. In all fairness, Johnson was either going to be a hero or a zero. The shop in shop concept is actually well deployed in places like Asia and successful, it gives branded retailers incentive and push to partner with JCP. Ullman already started with the Sephora make-up store and by all accounts, it was successful. Johnson pressed the button to cap-ex the home store, clothing store and children’s store. It’s probably one of the biggest riskiest bet for retail. (huge cap-ex, taking out floor space and sacrifice performance and you have customers that may not accept the new brands). The dumped St. John which was a basic men's category which was a huge mistake.
A lot of the cash burn and SSS was expected. That strategy is yet to be determined. I have been visiting JCP a lot lately in different areas of town and observing traffic and conversion. I went on mother’s day and father’s day to further look at foot traffic and conversions as those are key dates to department stores. It’s been mixed.
Overall, I’m a believer in the strategy. Once the home store are all in business, the Disney stores comes in for back to school and all the shops are in place for the critical holiday season, JCP may be in business and I would not be surprise they can get back from 12B – 17B. It takes 6 months of planning to deliver results as decisions are made now for the critical holiday month and JCP is as focused as it has ever been in 100 years. lol A good friend of mine works at Levi’s and they are pleased with the Levis store at JCP and am working hard to increase traffic there specifically. More so than selling more jeans to Macy's as they have more reasons to see JCP do well than Macy's.
• Win back lost customers: I don’t think consumer hold any grudge against JCP. In the end, JCP is an anchor store on one of the wing. They’ll come as long as the consumer confidence and economic environment is fine and get used to shopping by brand instead of category. bring back what works for the older shoppers and continue to engage the younger shopper it was trying to appeal to. It’s a matter of getting the right product at the right price and become cusomer focused. It’s not terribly new anyway as Macy’s have their branded stores anyway.
• Retail climate. JCP is shielded from Europe and Asia so their health is based solely on the American consumer and betting on the american middle class. Online stores have been eating everyone but I don’t think malls are going away, just need to be righsized. It helps JCP that fair market act are coming on board (possibly) and Obamacare penalty provision are delayed another year. The US tax system,(inluding locally) and policies will be generally supportive of domestic business that hires American workers.
So I’ve convinced myself to buy JCP again (thinks the big issues are temporary). It is a great risk vs. reward play. I really think by back to school and this Christmas, JCP will be clearly trending up again. They have a lot of press lately and I think they have a legit shot once all the stores, marketing, promotions, brands are finally on line at the same time (by back to school). Downside $12 by December and upside $30 if it is clear their turnaround efforts are (not)working and funds will come on board big time.
I am long @ a tad under $17. (Sold for $13 when Ackman was out) Good luck.
#politics