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The Fed vs Savers


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2009 Mar 22, 1:25pm   13,913 views  108 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

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I just don't get how the Fed's shameless murder of the free market for Treasury bonds influences what banks are willing to pay me in CD interest.

I understand that the government issues Treasury bonds, and then "primary dealer" banks buy them from the government at a discount from 100%, paying the government less than face value now (say 95%) in exchange for a promise to get paid back 100% of the face value later. When the Fed wants to lower interest rates, it buys those bonds from the banks, driving up the price of the bonds up closer to 100%, and therefore driving down the Treasury bond interest rate, which is the difference between the bond price (say 98% now) and 100%. The Fed creates cash out of nothing to pay for the bonds, which is disturbing.

When the bonds mature, it all cancels out: the government pays the bond holder (often the Fed) 100% of the bond face value, and the cash disappears back into the bowels of the Fed, whence it came. That part is nice.

Now can someone tell me exactly how that influences the rate banks are willing to pay me on a CD? I know I'm getting screwed here, watching my interest earnings fall so that some idiot can pay a lower interest rate on his McMansion's adjustable mortgage. The money I don't get in interest is the money that fool doesn't have to pay. I just want to know the mechanics of the connection between Treasury bonds and mortgage rates.

Patrick

#housing

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88   OO   2009 Mar 25, 5:51am  

The government is not revoking the contract, it is slapping on retro-active taxation, which actually is NOT UNconsitutional and NOT without precedents.

So as long as the government still pays out the bonus, yet at the same time slap on as much punitive taxation on it as they wish, I am all for the decision.

89   DinOR   2009 Mar 25, 6:05am  

"It get's suburban American chicks all hot and bothered"

Where is this place again?

"They mis-timed the market badly"

No way to argue that, but again, at any point in the economic cycle there are bound to be developments in mid-project! Sure it looks simply awful but I keep wondering when the Seek Shelter Siren would be sounded to everyone's satisfaction?

That would ensure everyone from corp. execs to young couples contemplating marriage could put their plans on hold and spare us 'their' embarrassment.

90   justme   2009 Mar 25, 6:08am  

HS,

That remains to be seen. I was simply speaking out against those who FAVOR or want to justify bonuses.

91   Peter P   2009 Mar 25, 6:30am  

I have heard things are really bad in OC.

How so? People still _look_ rich.

The hotel was packed. Restaurants were full.

I have seen more exotic cars in a day than ever:

Enzo
F40
McLaren SLR
Maybach 57S

Not to mention a pretty Gulfstream G550 at SNA.

92   Peter P   2009 Mar 25, 6:33am  

So as long as the government still pays out the bonus, yet at the same time slap on as much punitive taxation on it as they wish, I am all for the decision.

Taxation is bad enough. Retroactive taxation is just plain wicked. I will not wish that on my worst enemies.

How can you even advocate punitive taxation? That is the last thing we want to see. Do you want the government to decide who deserves what? I don't.

93   OO   2009 Mar 25, 7:25am  

DinOR,

Santana Row actually has a very interesting history.

It was built during the height of the dot com years from 1999(?) to 2001, and as you can already see, timed the market very poorly. In fact, as far as I recall, it was scheduled to launch right after 911.

So after 911, we were like, uh oh, is this place gonna go mid-project forever? It was about 75% finished at that point. Then, came the BIG FIRE that basically burnt down everything, so the developer recouped all its development expenses by the insurance company, how convenient. Interestingly, there was no charge of arson or even investigation, partially because leaving such a big project idle will be to nobody's advantage, that nobody obviously include the city. Then the developer started building again as the real estate bubble picked up, and this time on borrowed time and money, it was successfully launched.

Now I am going to predict a big fire that will burn down the half finished part of the Santana Row Sunnyvale. Or maybe not, because the project is not even 25% done.

94   OO   2009 Mar 25, 7:28am  

From wikipedia:

On August 19, 2002, during construction, the largest building at Santana Row (Building 7, "Santana Heights") caught fire. The fire eventually caused $120,000,000 in damages, and spread to at least 13 apartment buildings downwind of the shopping center on Moorpark Avenue, across Interstate 280. The main fire spread to five alarms, while the secondary fires required six alarms. It was the largest structure fire in San Jose's history.

Btw, I do remember that the original launch date was delayed from shortly after 911 to much later due to the economy.

95   justme   2009 Mar 25, 9:46am  

DinOR,

They are getting hot and bothered about all the luxury goods in the storefront windows. Santana Row would be much more useful if it was the other kind of hot and bothered, but alas....

http://www.santanarow.com/

96   justme   2009 Mar 25, 9:48am  

To put in another way. Santana Row is an "if I hang out here, I'm worth this much more myself" kind of place.

97   Peter P   2009 Mar 25, 9:59am  

In short, Santana Row sucks.

You know, I am an advocate of luxury goods. Still, I hate the people there.

And I wish food is better there.

98   justme   2009 Mar 25, 10:15am  

It's pretty cold in Hell today.

99   Peter P   2009 Mar 27, 2:56am  

Bap33, as usual, you have good points. :)

AIG executives might have been naughty but welfare leeches may well be the downfall of civilization.

This is why I think the 24th Amendment was a mistake. It created an excessive political will to implement increasingly progressive taxation and handout programs.

Ronald Reagan did an excellent job to reverse some damages but when are we going to get the next Ron?

100   asatar   2009 Apr 1, 3:28am  

I've been a fan of this blog for some time, but this is my first comment. It's always fascinating to see where the thread goes. I particularly like PermaRenter's comment on 3/24.

Patrick's question is a good one: how does the Fed's buying of Treasury debt influence CD rates?

Treasury yields influence all other rates because they are the benchmark of what is perceived to be zero default risk. The thinking is that the Federal govt will not default on its obligations. I agree with much of what people have said here, that the govt will in fact default (either outright or through inflation). In fact, it wasn't even that long ago that the govt did a similar thing. In 1933 Roosevelt devalued the dollar and refused to honor the obligation to redeem bonds in gold, a kind of default.

All other debt must have a higher interest rate, because it has a higher default risk than Treasuries. Mortgage rates should be higher, but rates that you'd get on a CD or savings account can be lower, because the bank is borrowing in order to lend, and profiting from the spread in rates. Market competition for CDs and savings deposits should keep the spread in a narrow range.

A number of people have said get out of CDs and Treasuries, but I haven't seen much discussion of keeping your assets in the ultimate safe haven: gold. I see the Dow headed south of 2000. What financial firms can survive that? Will your bank survive it? Will your broker? Only one asset will be left standing once the incredible sea of leverage has drained and that is gold.

101   Patrick   2022 Jun 17, 9:38am  

https://gettr.com/comment/c15vm881fcc


@wlindemann
·
20h
Replying to @wlindemann
Yes, repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. Those traitorous politicians gave our monetary sovereignty to the Central Banks - and we have been the Central Banks mercenary bitches since that time.

After two world wars and a plethora of other deadly conflicts, not one politician in Washington DC ever thought that it may be a good idea to take ourselves off of their system. The wealth of the Central Banks and the families that own them needs to be confiscated and every family member eliminated. That may sound harsh, but these people are engaged in killing 90% of the people on this planet. Its the only way humanity can survive.
Posted on 1:30 PM · Jun 16th, 2022


A rather harsh take, but maybe correct.

Dr Malone:


rwmalonemd
@rwmalonemd
·
2h
To understand the CORONAcrisis, the most important things you need to know are that:
1) The Federal Reserve bank is not part of the US Government. It is privately owned.
2) The US Government does not control the Federal Reserve Bank. The Federal Reserve Bank controls the US Government Bureaucracy AND the Uniparty politicians.

The same relationship holds for virtually all western governments and their corresponding "central banks".

Once you understand these two facts, then you can start to make sense out of what otherwise makes no sense at all from a public health point of view.

And until you fully appreciate these facts and the related implications, nothing about the CORONAcrisis will make sense.


I don't see exactly why the Fed had a motive in supporting the plandemic fraud though. Did it gain them money or power? Maybe it did, I just don't see the mechanism exactly.
102   GNL   2022 Jun 17, 11:34am  

Patrick says

https://gettr.com/comment/c15vm881fcc



@wlindemann
·
20h
Replying to @wlindemann
Yes, repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. Those traitorous politicians gave our monetary sovereignty to the Central Banks - and we have been the Central Banks mercenary bitches since that time.

After two world wars and a plethora of other deadly conflicts, not one politician in Washington DC ever thought that it may be a good idea to take ourselves off of their system. The wealth of the Central Banks and the families that own them needs to be confiscated and every family member eliminated. That may sound harsh, but these people are engaged in killing 90% of the people on this planet. Its the only way humanity can survive.
Posted on 1:30 PM · Jun 16th, 2022


A rather harsh take, but maybe correct.

Dr Malone:



I would assume the Fed has relationships with the WEF and Globalist crowds. How could they not?
103   Patrick   2022 Jun 20, 9:08pm  

https://rudy.substack.com/p/anybody-see-something-really-odd


Anybody see something really odd here?
Don't gaslight me, bro.

Rudy Havenstein
12 hr ago
According to the Federal Reserve, as of 3 days ago the share of total net worth held by the top 1% plummeted.
Someone please call them out on this (unless it’s an innocent mistake, which it is not).




107   HeadSet   2022 Jul 1, 6:26am  

No, they do not think you are "Stupid," they think you are powerless.
108   1337irr   2022 Jul 1, 6:36am  

Patrick says

https://rudy.substack.com/p/-



Frankly, a lot of my wealth is in real estate at this moment. I feel I have gotten some decent real estate investment deals despite the pending crash. I have a mutual fund at my work, PGOFX, that under performs the market, I think the only reason it has funds in it is because of trust fund babies who don't know better.

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