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In the case of California, the dynamics have certainly changed since 2008. About 55% of the population are renters and about 33% of homeowners are mortgage free.

There is very little homebuilding compared to the population.

I don't foresee a lot of forced selling even if there is a big recession. The percentage of people with outta wack mortgages just ain't there.

Nominal values may drop less than people expect, but could be substantial over the years on an inflation adjusted basis.

It is hard to teach patience.

You'll know (we're near) the housing bottom when all the corporate news starts screaming people need to sell now.

Remember who the corporate news works for, not the common people, for the oligarchs. When they start selling panic, that's when their owners start to purchase.

Briefly, after the collapse in 2006/7, the market was overwhelmed with bank owned properties ... in the millions. Three factors; the Fed artificially reduced interest rates to historic lows (and kept them there for well over 10 years). Large numbers of Bank-owned properties were withheld from the market as a means to not flood the market with oversupply. It took years for the banks to unload these properties. Not only did the Fed lower interest rates, they took control of the secondary mortgage market because there were literally NO INVESTORS for Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Unbeknownst to the general public, the Fed was purchasing MBS at a rate of over $80 BILLION per MONTH (they still are!). Without that, the mortgage money market in America would have completely collapsed. Whenever markets (including equities) are artificially manipulated, such action always comes with negative side effects.

The side effect of historically low interest rates is obvious; home prices continually rose way beyond the rate of 'normal,' which historically was about 3% annually. Of course all real estate is 'local,' so there were dramatic exceptions to that basic rule.

Now we have the worst of both worlds; very high, artificially inflated housing prices along with rising interest rates, which will 'de-qualify' literally millions of potential buyers right out of the market. As of now, we haven't seen anything even close to a 'correction,' but if interest rates continue to hold, or, go higher, sellers will be faced with two choices; either don't sell, or, dramatically lower their asking price.

IMO, if interest rates hold at current rates for say two years, we'll see a minimum of a 30% drop in overall prices.

RayAmerica says

IMO, if interest rates hold at current rates for say two years, we'll see a minimum of a 30% drop in overall prices.

Or incomes will have to rise dramatically. Hahaha, never going to happen.

IMO, TPTB are literally stealing America through financial tyranny.

GNL says

TPTB are literally stealing America through financial tyranny.

In FDR's Presidential Library, a copy of a letter that he sent to Col. Mendel House stated the following (paraphrase):

"You and I both know that since the days of Andrew Jackson, the big money powers (bankers) have controlled this country."

As President, Jackson refused to renew the 20 year charter for the 1st. Bank of the United States (central bank owned and controlled by the Rothschilds banking conglomerate). For 8 years, Jackson and his wife were attacked non-stop by the nation's newspapers, the bank caused a severe depression, but Jackson won. For the first, and only time, the U. S. Government was completely debt free and actually had a large surplus. That all changed after Jackson left office and the charter was renewed. We've had nothing but deficit spending ever since.

Prices aren’t going to crash this year. The financials are too strong still. But give it a year, when millions of Boomers are dying of vax related illness, when the recession long predicted has ravaged our economy, and when rates are still stubbornly held high, and it will.

Inflation so far has countered any crash.