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And... They're OFF!!!


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2007 Jan 6, 10:28am   20,717 views  139 comments

by SP   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

My six saved searches in ZipRealty (covering Cupertino, Los Altos and Saratoga) are up an average of 15% since Dec 31. A realtor friend of mine had said that her agency was asking people to wait for at least a week after the new year, to avoid the dead season. In spite of this, some sellers seem to be jumping the gun already.

The majority of the listings show a reduction in "zestimate" from the peak which appears to have occured around mid-2006. I haven't spotted too many FB's yet - most of these are folks who bought and owned for a few years, although there are a few "extensively remodeled" flipjobs in the mix.

Asking prices seem a shade (sometimes even as much as a smidgen) lower than comparable asking prices last year - still obscenely overpriced, though.

SP

#housing

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119   OO   2007 Jan 9, 2:26pm  

Girgl,

it is an inter-family transaction. When someone's name is ADDED to a deed, only the portion of the home associated with that transfer is recorded. For example, if the home is worth $1M at market value, and it's co-owned by a couple, adding a son's name will imply that the son gets $330K of the value, therefore, a transfer of value of $330K is recorded.

There is also some confusion about whether the loan balance is subtracted from the transfer. In any case, when you see a transaction obviously out of whack from the market prevailing value, it implies a transaction within the family by adding a party's name to the ownership.

120   Girgl   2007 Jan 9, 2:31pm  

OO Says:
it is an inter-family transaction.

That makes sense. Thanks for shedding light on this!

121   Different Sean   2007 Jan 9, 2:33pm  

oh, got it - there was a 'magic word' in it after all...

OO Says:
any chance the Labor opposition may put up a decent fight in the coming election? I happened to land myself in a pre-dominantly labor state (QLD) over the vacation with the uncontested Premier Beattie, and everyone I talked to seem to have a disdain for Howard, but I suspect that may be due to my sample bias.

no, no chance, heh. Labor have put up Kevin Rudd as alternative PM, he is calm, rational, articulate, and, most importantly, a fervent 'socia1ist Christian', where Labor hope that he will out-Christian the Conservatives' tokenistic claims to Christianity in the scared, Christian, conservative electorate. Unfortunately, he is a little too dull and colourless and not combative enough to win on the 'charisma' effect, in my estimation. Time will out. The main reason John Howard has stayed in for so long is that he 'appears' honest and sincere to the naive, he is a slippery liar who always talks his way out of trouble with a convincing rebuff, and changes and borrows policies from other parties as needed to keep people happy -- but people don't particularly like him -- he's just someone who appears reliable. He also slashed the govt deficit and brought it back into a healthy surplus very quickly. Other than that, the parties are approximately equal in terms of mediocrity. I find the Conservative Ministers completely unpleasant and unacceptable human beings and always wonder who voted for them -- everyone I know vocally denies voting for them after each election. ;)

Conversely and perversely, every state govt is presently Labor, altho they can't win a trick Federally. I don't know how that works. Except that Labor is increasingly centrist/right wing and conservative in general, having been co-opted by the Right ages ago. And Qld had a particular notorious National Party Premier for a very long time, to be replaced by Beattie.

There has been an increasing mistrust of big party politics in the electorate, and both parties are losing preferences to minor parties and independents, which worries the Labor govts at state level. There could be more seats returned to Greens, Independents and other small parties in the next NSW state election in March 07 (as much as is possible in a two-party-preferred voting system which is not proportional or truly representative).

122   OO   2007 Jan 9, 2:50pm  

oops, I meant intra-family transaction.

123   Lost Cause   2007 Jan 9, 3:04pm  

San Francisco Says:

January 8th, 2007 at 7:39 pm
Did 4th Qtr 2006 California foreclosure rate just beat 1st Qtr 1996?

4th Qtr 2006 91,292

Is that a record? That is a seriously large number.

124   Bruce   2007 Jan 9, 4:17pm  

A Note from the Hinterlands

I've just returned from Charleston, West Virginia, where my brother is a broker for Merrill Lynch and my sister-in-law an associate for a local Coldwell Banker affiliate. I asked them how Charleston was weathering the effects of the current RE market and got faintly puzzled looks from both.

While there hasn't been much interest lately in large, new homes, a number of which have been built since the mid-nineties for non-natives, the sale or purchase of SFHs continues at the same modest rate typical of the past twenty years or so. She has four in escrow at present. None of her clients make use of unconventional financing.

According to my brother, the rise in valuations experienced elsewhere over the past seven years had no local equivalent - Charleston's residential average values have fallen modestly since 2000.

Charleston is a small, urban capitol city. Macy's and Starbucks and Marriott are there. Benz, Lexus and Jaguar also. I wonder if coastal America is aware of such places and also how many fly-over locales are similar. It was like entering an alternative, parallel universe.

125   Different Sean   2007 Jan 9, 4:43pm  

I added a note to the comments.

I added a note saying she looked pretty...

126   Different Sean   2007 Jan 9, 5:28pm  

Charleston is a small, urban capital city. Macy’s and Starbucks and Marriott are there. Benz, Lexus and Jaguar also. I wonder if coastal America is aware of such places and also how many fly-over locales are similar. It was like entering an alternative, parallel universe.

Just on this, and astrid's thoughts about relocating to Canada, Oz, etc, you have to weigh up factors like cultural difference, whether the perceived benefits of a benevolent welfare state override the 'homesickness' factor, nature of job markets, and so on. e.g. it's possible to relocate somewhere inside the US to get relief from the housing market. I just drove through some 'secondary' Australian towns, which never exceed popn 100,000, and there ain't much there -- generally not a Benz or a Lexus to be found. There are really only 5 major capital cities to choose from - Sydney (4M), Melbourne (3M) and Brisbane (2M) on the east coast, and Adelaide (1M) and Perth (1M). And Canberra, popn 500,000. Adelaide and Perth are remote feeling. Sydney's urban planning is poor, Brisbane is 'OK' altho hot and humid, Melbourne is classy and well planned but has cooler and unstable weather. Housing affordability is poor in Sydney in particular - like Hollywood, it's a nice place to be if you're rich. Canberra is a haven for bright, time-wasting public servants pretending to be efficient and effective. The wage structure in Oz is generally flatter, you would be crazy to relocate here from US if you were a doctor or lawyer. And commodities are a little dearer than US, although cheaper than places like UK, altho getting fresh temperate and tropical fruits and seafood etc is pretty straightforward. Australia is still more like UK than US in culture, altho it is also somewhat intermediate between the two, and still shows some of its cultural heritage of being drawn from the convict hulks on the Thames ;)

127   Bruce   2007 Jan 9, 6:48pm  

Sean, if I appeared to be suggesting Charleston as an alternative for Bay Area residents - and reading over my post, I see it could make that impression - I must say it is the kind of town only a lifelong denizen could love.

However, as we gauge the impact of real estate speculation and voodoo credit, I thought a reminder of those portions of the US which stand outside the familiar coastal model was in order. Places like Charleston or Bangor or scores of similarly unremarkable burgs contribute a fairly substantial, hardworking core to the country's prospects.

128   ozajh   2007 Jan 9, 6:55pm  

DS,

Canberra is a haven for bright, time-wasting public servants pretending to be efficient and effective.

Way, WAY too kind. (And I are one :))

129   HeadSet   2007 Jan 9, 10:30pm  

SP's link says:

"Get 15-year, fixed mortgage. Be sure that the payment is no more than 1/4 of our take-home pay."

I bet this sounds like exoticly conservative advice in a world that thinks using 30 year life sentence mortgage is acting frugal.

130   HeadSet   2007 Jan 9, 10:35pm  

DS Says:

"Australia is still more like UK than US in culture, altho it is also somewhat intermediate between the two, and still shows some of its cultural heritage of being drawn from the convict hulks on the Thames"

So, do you have the Family Leg-Irons mounted over the mantle?

131   SFWoman   2007 Jan 9, 11:26pm  

Bruce,

I had the BEST lobster chowder in Bangor once. Yum.

DS,

I saw your comment. She is the cutest real estate agent. I added a comment too (although not about that). There is nothing at all unreasonable about anything she says, but the real estate investor guy apparently thinks she's insane. "What, people should only buy what they can afford? Good God, then their neighbors will think they are poor, poor I tell you! You wouldn't want people thinking you can't afford that McMansion, would you?" (That's the thought bubble I picture over his head.)

132   DinOR   2007 Jan 10, 12:04am  

SP,

Loreena Yeo is da bomb! How many realtors have even heard of Dave Ramsey let alone strive to adhere to his principals! Some time back a client brought Dave to my attention and I've been a fan ever since.

In part that's why I was disappointed mortgage acceleration wasn't rec'd more openly. I absolutely hear where Headset is coming from and have also adopted the "30 Years to Life" mindset when it comes to mortgages. At this point, even if I DID find a home (at a price I was willing to pay) a 30 Year is just out of the question! How can any right thinking person consider themselves "retired" when they have another 20+ years left on their mortgage?

133   astrid   2007 Jan 10, 1:15am  

DS and ajh,

Good points, though arguably being like America would argue in Australia's favor. I spent my life in China and the US, two countries so big that they're always acting as though the rest of the world does not exist (except as quaint vacation spots or source of consumer goods). I wouldn't mind something a bit different. With the option of dual citizenship, I doubt I'd hurry into a permanent OZ based job (I have heard that wages are much lower there). I just need to get my foot in the door before I'm too old to immigrate.

Is it true that Aussies drink their beer at room temperature?

134   speedingpullet   2007 Jan 10, 1:23am  

DS Says:

“Australia is still more like UK than US in culture, altho it is also somewhat intermediate between the two, and still shows some of its cultural heritage of being drawn from the convict hulks on the Thames”

Definately.
When I went to Victoria a few years back, I got the feeling that the culture was English but the geography was much more like a very dangerous Wild West. Consequently, the nice, polite, conservative English zeitgeist is mixed in with the sort of pioneer attitude needed to live in a big, hot, dangerous country. I'd guess it was much the same as the American attitude up until the start of the 20th C

Personally, I'd give my right boobie for a job offer in Melbourne ;-)

IIRC, these days there's a certain cachet in having Crims as ancestors.

Incidentally, I lived for many years near the Thames in Deptford (South East London), which was the site of many of the Prison Hulks, crammed full of unfortunate souls due for transportation to Oz - many of them for trivial crimes like stealing a loaf of bread. Oh, how times have changed....

135   astrid   2007 Jan 10, 1:48am  

"though arguably being like America would argue in Australia’s favor"
"though arguably being LESS like America would argue in Australia’s favor"

Anyone here have a psychic grammar check helper monkey for sale?

136   OO   2007 Jan 10, 7:18am  

astrid,

if you do go down under, hook up with your Columbia Aussie alumni first. The Ivies (mostly Harvard, Yale and Columbia) have some presence down under, but don't flaunt your school name the way one usually does in the US, it is a very different culture and mindset, Aussies don't appreciate that too much.

However, the cost of living is NOT much lower than the Bay Area. In Sydney, the housing cost adjusted for local pay and tax rate is actually HIGHER! Aussies get no tax break on their mortgage interest for prime residence, but tax breaks for negative gearing (negative cashflow) on investment properties, extremely wicked tax system. Some food is cheaper and some more expensive, while gasoline is more expensive. The big savers are education (no difference of school districts, all about the same), and universal medicare (but not in Sydney, because you'll have to wait too long to be treated).

Australia is having a boom of the century, but its boom is indirectly dependent on the US. The biggest export destination of Oz is Japan (#1) and China (#2), accounting for over half of where their stuff are heading towards, but the #1 export destinations by far for both Japan and China is the mothership US. So if we falter, Oz will be very much affected, a country of 20M population is too small to sustain a thriving economy on its own, although it has plentiful natural resources to deplete.

I usually come back from my annual Oz visit thinking that gosh that is a great country and get back in the Bay Area feeling depressed. But after a while, I figure that I've never made a dime in Oz, I have always looked at Oz from the perspective of American wages and exchange rate (sucking big time lately, and likely will get worse), so I don't really know what it feels like to earn the dime locally and spend it locally.

I would suggest that you don't miss Brisbane and Perth on your trip, the two fastest growing regions of Australia, and of the western developed world. There's a very useful immigration site called britishexpats, and the top destination for British emigrants or expats is Australia. There are tons of useful information on that site for the choice of location, cultural adjustment (from British perspective), jobs, etc. Hope you have a good time down under.

137   astrid   2007 Jan 10, 7:33am  

OO,

Thanks for your advice. I didn't go to an Ivy League school though. I hope the fact that you didn't know that means I haven't been flaunting my degree too much. My college is a brand X liberal arts college anyways.

138   Different Sean   2007 Jan 10, 7:57am  

Time to dispel some myths, heh:

So, do you have the Family Leg-Irons mounted over the mantle?

Yes, and a framed ticket-of-leave signed by the Gov'nor. No, FALSE, my folks emigrated from UK when I was a young'un, they weren't even transported (unlike the Bee Gees, who used to start fires as juveniles, until the local constabulary 'suggested' the family emigrate to Oz).

Is it true that Aussies drink their beer at room temperature?

FALSE. No, definitely not, not in this climate. That's a joke about the English not refrigerating beer told by Aussies.

many of them for trivial crimes like stealing a loaf of bread. Oh, how times have changed…

TRUE. I saw a doco the other day where a 14 year old girl had been given the death sentence in about 1778 for tricking another girl, taking her outer clothes and pawning them, at a time when people in London were basically starving. The judge thought this was an offence showing incorrigible moral turpitude in a 14 year old that required hanging. Luckily, the new colony needed breeding stock, and her sentence was commuted to 14 years transportation while she was lingering in the barges.

Canberra is a haven for bright, time-wasting public servants pretending to be efficient and effective.

TRUE, unfortunately. I always thought ajh was a private sector, outsourced kind of guy supplying IT services... ;)

I spent my life in China and the US, I wouldn’t mind something a bit different.

While I think of it, I don't know whether you'd find Sydney interesting, as there is a really big ethnic Chinese population there, which facilitates doing business and job-hunting sometimes. (Some people still claim a huge influx of rich HK businessmen caused the Sydney property boom, especially after the lease expired in 1997. It could have been a factor.) Other cities are more 'Anglo' generally, with more European immigration.

139   astrid   2007 Jan 10, 11:32am  

DS,

Thanks for the answers. What a relief to know that Aussies drink cold beer! I don't mind room temperature ale, but I loath to contemplate the taste of a warm Heiferweizen.

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