patrick.net

TenPoundBass :

Your brother should put the 10k offer in, then spend his weekends tearing the house down and filling the pool if it goes through. Making it a double lot would be cool!

The usual summer uptick in prices. Nothing to write home about.

Long run, I think it’s safe to assume that real estate prices have *much* farther to fall, probably to early 1990s levels. There’s still a large inventory of bank foreclosures that has yet to hit the market. Banks that hold these foreclosures will soon need to raise more capital, particularly as they find the need to roll over their own debt. They've been doing this slowly so as not to reduce home prices. How long this is sustainable is an interesting question.

In addition, there’s a just a plain old-fashioned glut. In Houston, condominium projects whose money was obtained prior to the crash are still going up. Houston had a housing glut *before* the crash. It’s just going to get worse once all the new condo projects (necessarily overpriced to cover costs) are created for their now nonexistent customers who fear losing their jobs. One large, recently completed luxury high-rise near Kirby street has hundreds of units. As of a few weeks ago, only 7 were inhabited.

So WillyWanker, when your bipolar meds kick in, I suggest you take a long, sober look at the real numbers and what’s coming down the pike, particularly at larger macroeconomic factors (Bank holdings of derivatives to the tune of $200 trillion in notional value, oil supply declines over the next decade, the coming national debt and our inevitable inability to finance it through bond sales, etc.)

Money isn’t magic and it's not something that's unaffected by the grungy details of the business or physical world. That kind of dimwitted MBA magical thinking is what caused our economic problems in the first place.

Optimism is not yet warranted.

Sorry to be Mr. Cold-water-of-reality-man, but there it is.

I agree that counties should live "within there means" but the fact that are actually lowering property tax
assessments seems to be pretty strong proof that they do not expect a significant rebound in housing prices. With Proposition 13 limiting increases on assessments going forward this indicates that even the
government knows there will be little growth in home values for many years to come.

WillyWanker says

It does? I had no idea I was modern~day Kirkegaard. But, thank~you.

LOL! I think you are overestimating yourself by comparing with Kirkegaard. I have a better and suitable label for you - cheerleader.

Please thank me for one more time.

ian807 says

...I suggest you take a long, sober look at the real numbers and what’s coming down the pike, particularly at larger macroeconomic factors (Bank holdings of derivatives to the tune of $200 trillion in notional value, oil supply declines over the next decade, the coming national debt and our inevitable inability to finance it through bond sales, etc.)

Oil supply declines and not being able to finance our debt through bond sales are highly inflationary. When you talk about going back to 1990 levels are you talking about inflation adjusted numbers?

michaelsch says

WillyWanker says

I, too, suspect that some people here are destined to be renters forever.

As a matter of fact I would like very much to be able to be a renter forever.

However, if being a renter turns out to be MUCH more expensive that being home debtors, I will need to buy. Hate to even think about it, but market rules.

At any rate, prices today are so high that they support building more even when there is a huge inventory of uninhabited homes. As long as the prices are as high the inventory will keep growing. This is a perfect condition for next crash. We really have an alternative: either housing prices crash or the whole economy burdened by mis-allocation of resources will crash. All these stimulusa do one and only one thing: they support mis-allocation of resources.

Not me. I have an intrinsic need to be able to control the material of the flooring in a house. And all the finishes. I don't like living in someone else's vision of decor and lifestyle (I'm still in my Rancho Mirage rental) . I've been renting for years now and I must say: I hate it. I couldn't find the right house at the right price. Even though rentals here have always been a lot lower than elsewhere in Southern California (rents averaged @ $1.00 a square foot and are a bit less than that now) I couldn't find the size of house @ 4,000 square feet in the style I prefer (modern architectural with minimalist fixtures and design). All that was available out here at the time were ersatz Mediterranean and phony Tuscan villas with everything I hate: wrong colors, textures, finishes and the most pedestrian and vulgar of styles.

Besides, I have thousands of books, so I, therefore, need a library and collect modern and contemporary art~work so I need a lot of wall space for my collection.

Many people are fine with renting all their lives. Renting for me has just been a means to an end. Nothing more.

P2D2 says

WillyWanker says

It does? I had no idea I was modern~day Kirkegaard. But, thank~you.

LOL! I think you are overestimating yourself by comparing with Kirkegaard. I have a better and suitable label for you - cheerleader.
Please thank me for one more time.

'...overestimating yourself by comparing with Kirkegaard.'??? 'Please thank me for one more time.'??? What does that mean? I assumed I was corresponding with someone who knew how to read and write in English. My mistake. But thanks for playing.

P.S.
Where are you writing from? Thailand? If so, Sawasdee~krup!

WillyWanker says

‘…overestimating yourself by comparing with Kirkegaard.’??? ‘Please thank me for one more time.’??? What does that mean? I assumed I was corresponding with someone who knew how to read and write in English. My mistake. But thanks for playing.

Aha! Now it is coming from a person posted this one - "just like those who ...... are many people here who don’t want to see ..."

What was that? Freight-train English? :)

You don't have much of an argument, do you?

interpretame says

EVERY statistic & index in the U.S. is currently COOKED, MASSAGED and TWISTED in order to get them to reflect the ‘right’ numbers.

I think media got bored with bad news. So even with microscopic uptick that lasts only microsecond, media starts jumping "it is stabilizing, it is positive".

The " improvement" is very small and only with enormous manipulation and infusions of money
to keep interests rates artificially low.
Last week a local television report on California foreclosures
described how 70 percent of homes in the foreclosure process have been halted after sending out the 21 day notification of sale.
All of these homes could be dumped on the market at any time without any additional delay. The people on the show who were with various foreclosure assistance agencies were all very concerned with this pile of foreclosures being parked on the edge of a cliff.
I don't hear this on any national news media but some of the local stations are actually providing a lot more
significant information and none of it sounds positive.

Bankster obviously California beat you up in grade school or something and you are still steaming over it. I recommend a good stiff drink and move on.

On topic:

US Home-Loan Delinquencies Pick Up In June - S&P

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=200907281610dowjonesdjonline000625&title=update-us-home-loan-delinquencies-pick-up-in-june---sp

If you are aware of some California Bailout in progress please share. Last I heard all begging by governors were turned down. Otherwise you are just a loon who thinks JOOOS excuse me KALIFORNICATORS are to blame for every single ill around them.

nowhere but up from here says

Now ya just can’t beat that….

Yes, because the "president and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate" is an unbiased and reliable source. Are you going to start citing Lawrence Yun next?

Bankster Buddy, your constant railing about KALIFORNIA SUCKING ON THE FEDERAL BOOBS while the rest of Uhmerica is slaving away at the oars to pay for our granola is patent nonsense. The article you linked doesn't say ANYTHING about Federal "few billion" dollars flowing into California. Unless it's hidden somewhere. Y

According to your article, California doesn't even charge oil companies royalties like Alaska does. So if Californa starts taxing them and suddenly your gas prices go up I guess you could say we are affecting you. Conversely you could say "librul" states like Alaska are unfairly taxing you now and demand it be rescinded.

I like bashing California as much as the next guy, this place is full of crazy people and assuredly "kicking the can down the road" will only lead to another budget crisis in 6 months or so. You are coming off as a California-bashing loon who can't even keep your story straight from one second to the next.

nowhere but up from here says

Now ya just can’t beat that….
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/291494/Hope-for-Housing%3A-Prus-Herman-Sees-Stabilization%2C-End-of-Price-Plunges

Excellent article. I am afraid that I would be priced out again..

Dead cat bounce the year after the crash, right on schedule:

"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

"...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930

"There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930

"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
"... the outlook continues favorable..."
- HES Mar 29, 1930

"... the outlook is favorable..."
- HES Apr 19, 1930

"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930
"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."
- HES May 17, 1930

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930

"... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."
- HES June 28, 1930

"... the present depression has about spent its force..."
- HES, Aug 30, 1930

"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
- HES Nov 15, 1930

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html

(See 1929 - 33 Dow chart w/corresponding corporate/government rah-rah statements.)

heh! heh! It's amazing how people forget the markets experienced a nice upturn in 1930 only to turn around and reach lower lows. Also it took 4 years after the 1929 market crash to reach the peak unemployment. 4 years! Yes that was exacerbated by the dust bowl conditions and farm failures. (The farms failed as a result of previous overleveraging during WWI when American farmers were asked to ramp up production to help Europeans eat. Their own fields were involved w/battle).

Just like then our whole system is overleveraged. What will be the shock that sets off the next leg down? Don't sneeze anyone.

Interpretame and nowhere but up from here: Are there any other reasons you two (And anyone else on here that agrees) believes the housing market has bottomed other than the uptick in sales this month and the president/media/fed stating the recession has ended?? You do realize that while more houses were sold in June than in May, its still a situation where the market still sucks, it just doesn't suck as bad?

Interpretame, where are you living at?

NBUFH must be a fortress realtor ... or was that established already?