0
0

How i'm calculating how much I can afford


 invite response                
2010 Dec 22, 3:52am   3,904 views  10 comments

by Hysteresis   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Approach

Most people use some multiple of income (usually 3 to 5 times income) to determine a house price.

I have a slightly different perspective.
I'm focused on retirement. I tend to think long term. The decisions I make today impact how it will affect my retirement and how to live well when I'm old.

I have a retirement strategy, and the problem is to figure out how to own a home without adversely affect this plan.

I start by looking at how much I need to save each year for retirement, and whatever money is left over determines how much I can afford.
In the example I decrease my current savings by $10k/year and allocate that towards buying a home.
I also don't assume the house is an investment vehicle to pad my retirement. If it appreciates, that's just a bonus.

Many people will think my numbers are overly conservative (which is interesting because as an investor I'm aggressive).
This approach isn't for everyone but I imagine some people who are retirement-minded like me might enjoy it.


Assumptions

  • $14k/year rent
  • $50k/year saved from my job currently (this is retirement money spread out between taxable and tax-deferred accounts)
  • Dividends, capital gains from investments, and interest are ignored

Calculation

  • i want to save $40k/year after purchase. that means I can allocate an extra $10k/year (by decreasing savings from $50k/year to $40/year) towards housing.
  • adding my rent of $14k/year plus $10k/year. i have $24k/year or $2k/month for housing.

I use this calculator.

  • $2k/monthly payment
  • 30 year fixed @ 5%
  • $50k down payment
  • 2% property tax
  • 0.5% insurance.

House Price: $304,421 house.

I can buy around $300k and still save $40k/year for retirement.


Notes

  • Biggest risk is losing my job and my salary. if i take a 50% pay cut at any new job i could probably still afford the mortgage. it's possible (probably even likley) i would sell the home and rent if my salary decreased 50%.
  • A 1% rate increase will affect my purchasing decision, I could afford to pay more, but I have a budget and I'm keeping to it. a 1% increase in mortgage rate may mean I am willing to pay less for a house; it depends if i'm buying at the top range or bottom range of what i can afford.
  • My spending an extra $10k/year suggests that I'm willing to pay an extra $10k each year to live in a house instead of renting. In other words, net benefit of home owning is worth an extra $10k/year. I might be willing to pay maybe $20k/year more compared to rent(if the house location and everything were perfect), but probably not higher.
  • The calculation determines a ballbark figure. There's nothing decent for $300k today. So I might consider paying $500k instead. That would mean $3k/month paid for housing or $36k/year and my savings would decrease to $26k/year which is not acceptable to me. At $450k, it's borderline whether I would buy, at $400k I would probably buy. Again my decision is based primarily on how much I will save for retirement each year. And because there's so many inputs to the calculation the actual purchase price is somewhat fluid. But it does give a sanity check and tells me that $500k is too much because I wouldn't be saving enough for retirement.
  • I understand a house usually has equity and once the mortgage is fully amortized it's cheaper than renting. These are not factored in. I still want to save a certain amount each year. I do not want to assume the house is anything but a depreciating asset. When I retire it'll be a bonus if my house is worth anything. My mindset is that saving for retirement is hard enough as it is, so if there's a few perks from owning a house when I'm old because I made conservatives assumptions today, that will be a hugely welcomed bonus.
  • My savings of $50k/year is the absolute maximum annual housing cost I can afford; it's actually quite a bit less because I'm not paying taxes on some of that income (sitting in tax deferred retirement accounts). So if I spent every penny and then some I could buy a house at $690k with $100k down.

#housing

Comments 1 - 10 of 10        Search these comments

1   FortWayne   2010 Dec 22, 4:17am  

Your numbers are very good. My wife and I used similar reasoning (and she has a finance degree).

This is what we came up with. That it's best to go with 50% of one persons income (provided both incomes are close to equal). Essentially to make sure that one income can save and one can survive if necessary without other being present (because shit happens). This allows us to basically keep saving for retirement and not be indentured in some ballooned payment.

We figured it would be a terrible financial decision to not save for retirement (the age where one makes the least and needs the most help).

2   Â¥   2010 Dec 22, 4:34am  

>I do not want to assume the house is anything but a depreciating asset

this is kinda wrong since land doesn't depreciate at all and with minimal maintenance any house can have a 50-plus year service life.

I can be on both sides of this issue, depending on things, but looking at where you want to be in 2040 is always the best strategy.

Rents are up around 30% from 20 years ago and I think they'll be up another 30% in 2030. I don't think buying now is a horrendous decision given future inflation we're going to have to see.

If things really tank in this decade then if you live in a no-recourse state you can just let the bank have its collateral and walk away. There's absolutely nothing wrong in doing this.

3   Hysteresis   2010 Dec 22, 4:50am  

Troy says

>I do not want to assume the house is anything but a depreciating asset

this is kinda wrong since land doesn’t depreciate at all and with minimal maintenance any house can have a 50-plus year service life.

i worded it wrong, the house has value but doesn't have any incoming producing value.

i'm relying completely on savings and investment for a retirement nest egg and for retirement income.

i won't rely on the house for any income in retirement (no reverse mortgages or HELOCs). it's only value to me in retirement is a cheap place to live (assuming property taxes don't go crazy).

4   sfbubblebuyer   2010 Dec 22, 5:09am  

If you are still saving money after buying a house, you're doing well. My wife and I wanted to make sure we were still saving at least as much as our mortgage costs every month. That was going well through one kid, but the second one may knock us down a notch.

5   Hysteresis   2010 Dec 22, 5:21am  

sfbubblebuyer says

If you are still saving money after buying a house, you’re doing well.

i have a hard time agreeing with this. everyone should save - home owners or renters and i think it really should be the norm.

how do you fund retirement if you're not saving?

social security from the government? that's a risky proposition.
even if you get social security, and that's a big "if", retirement at those low levels of income won't be much fun.

do you expect your kids to help you? americans aren't like asians that take care of their parents in old age. you might want them to take care of you, but whether they will do depends on how you bring them up. it's not something i rely on.

6   sfbubblebuyer   2010 Dec 22, 5:30am  

Anon, I was agreeing with you that people need to be saving for retirement, even after buying a house. And I mean REALLY saving, not having 50 bucks left at the end of the month. Retirement saving should be the FIRST thing people do (aside from getting an income source) to provide for themselves financially. Buying a house should be approached from a worst-case-but-still-plausible scenario, in that the house never gains value, or even loses value. The benefit is in the fixed cost of living quarters and the drastically lower cost once you pay off the mortgage. Having a free-and-clear house is part of our retirement plan.

Having watched older relatives near retirement age and their friends buy trophy houses near the peak, then jettison their entire IRA/401(k) savings to try and 'save' the house during the crash makes me shake my head in wonder. Who, at age sixty, wants to take on another giant mortgage? I watched someone sell their paid for house to make a downpayment on a monstrous house 3 times as expensive in 2006. They're squatting in their foreclosure with the ruins of their life savings rotting around them.

7   Hysteresis   2010 Dec 22, 5:52am  

sfbb, thanks for clarifying.

8   Future Cash Buyer   2010 Dec 22, 6:28am  

Mine is a lot easier.

I live and work in California and when I retire I want to move out of state.

We have saved a large down payment that could be used to purchase a home in California. But this money can probably buy 2~3 houses outright in other states. Since we are 30~35 years away from retirement, as long as we diversify and invest wisely, and have 50% saving rate as long as we are working, when we retire we should be fine.

Basically we want to live well within our means and live a true Christian life. We have faith that God will provide.

9   artistsoul   2010 Dec 22, 1:39pm  

Uncle Nomo's definition of a full, adventurous life:

Nomograph says

Go to Vegas, blow 10 grand, and spend some quality time doing body shots and snorting coke off a stripper’s tit. You’ll be a better person for it.

****disclaimer: your definition may differ

10   jobcat   2010 Dec 22, 1:52pm  

Future Cash Buyer says

I live and work in California and when I retire I want to move out of state.
We have saved a large down payment that could be used to purchase a home in California. But this money can probably buy 2~3 houses outright in other states. Since we are 30~35 years away from retirement, as long as we diversify and invest wisely, and have 50% saving rate as long as we are working, when we retire we should be fine.

I too am thinking about leaving California when I stop working.

Where do you keep your cash? I can only put so much in ING. I worry about inflation.

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions