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Skyrockets ?
Yeah, I guess if you're a day trader.
a move of $40 in a short time is that a "spurt"
The Fracn went from 1.02 USD to .87 ina few hours
Just in case some don't understand currency exchange that is a 15% appreciation in the CHF against the USD. This should be a reminder to have a catastrophic risk management scenario in their trading or investment business plan.
Skyrockets ?
Yeah, I guess if you're a day trader.
a move of $40 in a short time is that a "spurt"
Only if you sell...lol
Oh by the way it's definitely time to test some selling of the CHF vrs. currency and buy XAUCHF
anyone know an indian code talker??
I know,,,lol The main winner is the CHF in this as to XAUUSD a confirmation since it did test the 1255 I have mentioned is price will have to break today's high sometime in the very near future.
a move of $40 in a short time is that a "spurt"
Traders don't play this without leverage, Min. it would be $400
A leveraged position on the wrong side can wipe you out with a move like this.
Perhaps it is time to focus on positive-gamma strategies.
A leveraged position on the wrong side can wipe you out with a move like this.
Especially trading an illiquid market where new found volatility can blast pass your stops without looking back.
A leveraged position on the wrong side can wipe you out with a move like this.
Especially trading an illiquid market where new found volatility can blast pass your stops without looking back.
Well, CHF is not normally considered illiquid or exotic. That is the scary part.
Most market participants have a naive understanding of volatility in financial time series. They are unable to comprehend important features like non-normality and heteroscedasticity.
Most market participants have a naive understanding of volatility in financial time series. They are unable to comprehend important features like non-normality and heteroscedasticity.
I know I do, can you splain this to us?
CHF is not normally considered illiquid or exotic
I wasn't really including CHF just a generality, I was speaking more of a equities market which I am positive the large majority invest/trade in if at all.
heteroscedasticity
That is definitely above my pay grade....lol
Most market participants have a naive understanding of volatility in financial time series. They are unable to comprehend important features like non-normality and heteroscedasticity.
I know I do, can you splain this to us?
To start, the distribution of price movement has significant higher-order components like skew and kurtosis. Furthermore, volatility tends to cluster unevenly.
The modern academia is ill-suited to tackle non-linear systems like mass behaviors and financial markets. Sometimes, things are better played than analyzed. :-)
heteroscedasticity
That is definitely above my pay grade....lol
It is just a pretentious word for "variable variability." I am using it here for parody value. :-)
I wasn't really including CHF just a generality, I was speaking more of a equities market which I am positive the large majority invest/trade in if at all.
True. However, many retail traders, especially outside of the US, dabble in currency trading because of the crazy leverage it allows.
BTW, it turns out that retail FX traders as a group have *more* winning trades than losing ones. Most traders are net-losers, so they must be taking profits too soon and allowing losses to snowball.
BTW, it turns out that retail FX traders as a group have *more* winning trades than losing ones. Most traders are net-losers, so they must be taking profits too soon and allowing losses to snowball.
Absolutely and for so many reasons.
Lack of self control and never understanding the concept of the game they are playing.
The CHF is still rocketing-I wonder how low it will go? Wonder if this is just the market. it has been a while, almost all the stops must have been blown through by now??
The CHF is still rocketing-I wonder how low it will go? Wonder if this is just the market. it has been a while, almost all the stops must have been blown through by now??
Blew threw a few accts as well I'm sure. At peak approx. 11 EST. NY session the CHF was the lowest VOL. 85% with nearly 2400% ATR
(7 pairs per ea. collectively).
Blew threw a few accts as well I'm sure. At peak approx. 11 EST. NY session the CHF was the lowest VOL. 85% with nearly 2400% ATR
There will be many unhappy traders all over the world. Watch out for flying bankers.
There will be many unhappy traders all over the world. Watch out for flying bankers.
1 would expect this in small cap and penny stocks, but the currency market....lol I wonder what the end result of black box, neural network and other programed systems will be?
1 would expect this in small cap and penny stocks, but the currency market....lol I wonder what the end result of black box, neural network and other programed systems will be?
Events like pegging/de-pegging are especially hazardous to currency traders. At least for penny stocks you know the risks and can adjust your leverage accordingly.
IMO all trading systems should have some kind of dislocation "safety valves." All strategies have underlying assumptions. When they are broken, it is time to stop trading and enjoy a cup of tea.
Events like pegging/de-pegging are especially hazardous to currency traders. At least for penny stocks you know the risks and can adjust your leverage accordingly.
Risk fundamentals 101 it's a zero-sum game no matter what market you trade. Risk management can be applied to any system if not ignored. So many, 95%+ rely on the "whore of hope" to get them threw it... You know what whores do...lol
underlying assumptions
One of the underlying assumptions every system needs is the "Black Swan" can fly over anytime. Proper risk management will save your butt from a catastrophic event.
Risk fundamentals 101 it's a zero-sum game no matter what market you trade. Risk management can be applied to any system if not ignored. So many, 95%+ rely on the "whore of hope" to get them threw it... You know what whores do...lol
More like the "whore of rope" now. LOL!
One of the underlying assumptions every system needs is the "Black Swan" can fly over anytime. Proper risk management will save your butt from a catastrophic event.
It is quite hard to have proper risk management when the market makes a 2400% ATR move. Many strategies will have to be under-leveraged most of the times. We all know that OPM traders will rather take the tail-risks. :-)
Perhaps it pays to spend more time in defined-risk strategies like long-options or spreads.
Nowadays, so many people are selling options for "income" they are depressing price premiums.
Now since the Swiss are so secretive-I wonder if the central bank decision was communicated to some trader/hedge fund before that? That guy would have made a killing going short. If some one did it froma Russian account, nobody could even trace them.
Now since the Swiss are so secretive-I wonder if the central bank decision was communicated to some trader/hedge fund before that? That guy would have made a killing going short.
Good for him.
Goldman Sachs Recommended 2015 Trade:
#6 – Sell the Swiss franc against the Swedish krona
A monetary policy divergence play.
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/11/20/here-are-goldman-sachss-top-trades-for-2015/
Only a fool would take advice from a large player in a zero-sum game.
Only a fool would take advice from a large player in a zero-sum game.
Bingo a fool or a "muppet"
Several currency trading firms across the world have gone belly up due to the Swiss bank move. Looks like there were stops slippage, due to the ferocity of the move and many accounts ended up with negative balances-interesting times.
Multiple of billions were lost yesterday... It will take time to digest and see the real cause and effect over time. CHF is still in the bottom range of yesterdays move, lots of head scratching going on.
This will have to be looked at collective over time to acquire a reasonable concept of cost benefit which the lines are being drawn from both sides..
FXCM will be interesting (halted). Could be 0.
Very interesting.
Numerous FX Brokers Shutter After Suffering "Significant Losses" Following SNB Stunner
Several currency trading firms across the world have gone belly up due to the Swiss bank move. Looks like there were stops slippage, due to the ferocity of the move and many accounts ended up with negative balances-interesting times.
Can they be negative? Many retail FX accounts are not setup as proper margin accounts. Not sure if they can go debit. At least, they may not be able to collect.
Brokers in the US are better regulated. Outside of this country, many are just modern day bucket shops.
Looks like there were stops slippage, due to the ferocity of the move and many accounts ended up with negative balances-interesting times
Brokers also jump the tracks with hedging various currencies to be able to chase traders stops using trader money basically margining themselves with trader money.
This should give pause to the banking institutions who do the same thing with depositor funds. Lots of brokers claim to be ECN and no dealing desk but that is simply not true.
Not to mention they also setup subsidiaries less regulated brokers in other countries.
It's a rough neighborhood my friends....
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The Swiss National Bank this morning announced that it was abandoning the Franc Euro peg and was taking its interest rates further into negative territory.
https://smaulgld.com/bank-switzerland-drops-franc-euro-peg/