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Team Logan 4. Team DS 0 The days of this pizza fight betwee the right and left going unchecked is done .... There will be order, math, facts and data from a bin ideogiocal person. I suggest you all deal with it
Team Logan 4. Team DS 0
Doesn't the fact that there are 0 people on the Team DS side make you pause and consider that perhaps you are fighting an imaginary battle against no one?
I'm going to start a thread called Team Tatupu against Team Poop on a stick where I maintain that filet mignon tastes better than poop on a stick. And I'll consider it vindication if more people prefer filet mignon. Of course I'm preserving all your posts about food as proof of your beliefs too...
Tell me Team Logan. How does math support an economic model with a currency backed by nothing, all production of physical products shipped overseas, and leveraging to a level unprecedented in history?
I'm not sure you even know what a serf is. They didn't own any land(see property taxes, mortgages), had to give up a portion of their earnings to the owner of the land they worked, or noble who offered them protection(see state/federal taxes, armed forces), and had no voice in who ruled over them(see presidential elections in a "two party" system).
If you want to keep status quo, you are actually advocating for serfdom.
After buying my house 3 years ago, and watching the upswing in the economy and housing for 4+ years, I'm back toward bear. I'll probably convert a good chunk of investment to cash soon. My view also colored by current work I'm doing. YMMV. If we were to list it, our current house price is beyond dumb. My stocks have been up, up, up to nose bleed levels. Looks like it's time to take, while the taking is good.
SOOOoooo ... I guess I'm team "Depression Serf" until wealth inequality equation is smoothed out more, or general profit taking and downward trends occur to sufficient degree to provide room for an upward cycle to start again. An economy based on a lopsided heavy slant toward Entertainment and FIRE won't float for forever. That's what I see America riding on right now. Tech is a maturing market as well and likely not to continue growth explosions for us. See Caterpillar (CAT) for a great American company, which I think is telegraphing things to come (heavy machinery = building demand = leading indicator).
Yes, ra-ra-ra America, but more now then ever before, we are not in economic isolation. Our economic health is tied very strongly to the world economy. I think most Americans are probably in for flat/grey times ahead at the very least.
I don't see many reasons to be hopeful that any major systemic issues are addressed, or pitfalls avoided, in the relative short term. So if we are holding flat, and a bump in the road comes ... that spells down to me. I'll put a time frame of next 4 years around that. If that's being a "perma-bear", well, ok. If my window is too big or too imprecise for you, I kind of don't care. That window is big enough for me to act on smart things right now. It may mean I mis 10% gain cause right now is "bear trap" territory, but I'll gladly mis out on 10%, to save 20-30% loss.
Summation:
- Good run-up seen in past 4 years (house,stocks)
- World economy remains shaky
- US economy appears to have some big imbalances (my faith in the current ability of the American consumer is also low)
- US political scene a total mess
Macro economic trends are based on much more than what is captured in a single graph. At this point I'm likely, maybe irrationally so, more swayed by things that aren't purely market/economic based. I want to see Europe on better ground. I want to see America with less adversarial positions in the international arena. I want to see a US leader that inspires, and unifies, at the helm. That's easily 4+ years away.
Tell me Team Logan. How does math support an economic model with a currency backed by nothing
The US dollar is backed by the production capacity of the US. It garners more confidence than any other currency on the planet.
Hey Logan, what's the score
So far no one has made any kind of thesis that Americans are serfs or heading to be serfs or that the 1929 vs 2016 thesis that $$$ being held to high at the top is going to bring down American consumption down do bad that we are going to have a deflationary spiral
Shocking!
Logan assumes that if your are not a super bull that believes in trickle down economcis, you are doom.
Actually no, I just don't believe the Americans that consume are high school drop outs that have a substance abuse, which is the key core thesis for anyone who believes America is heading to Serf Villa Nation
This is usually a tactic done by the left to try to make it seem that life is so bad ...
Where the right spread their hyperinflation dollar collapse non sense
Logan is a wanna be investment banker.
Actually a top 1% on LinkedIn, but don't have any investment banker profile on there
You're all welcome to see
https://www.linkedin.com/in/logan-mohtashami-5167631?trk=nav_responsive_tab_profile
Hey Logan, what's the score
So far no one has made any kind of thesis that Americans are serfs or heading to be serfs or that the 1929 vs 2016 thesis that $$$ being held to high at the top is going to bring down American consumption down do bad that we are going to have a deflationary spiral
Shocking!
Those are life time pessimists. Count them as Serfs.
Those are life time pessimists. Count them as Serfs.
1790-2016 Serf thesis ... we need the triangle Pizza Fight to go
Left vs Right and then everyone else
I am really hope I get everyone here to go against my thesis , so far I go the usual suspect from the extreme of both sides but some people are being clever and not talking
Maybe those demographics charts are working, if I can make some MMT people think about demographic economics then I can get the hard left and right to think about it even if they don't want to admit it
Only in your strawman of me.
So, this means you're not in Serf thesis then correct? and can I take you away from a 1929 deflationary spiral thesis as well?
Awesome
Welcome to Team Logan!!
(my faith in the current ability of the American consumer is also low)
Even with the world slowdown since 2011 .. nada .. nothing, trend has kept pace, even in a light demographic patch
Only in your strawman of me.
So, this means you're not in Serf thesis then correct? and can I take you away from a 1929 deflationary spiral thesis as well?
Awesome
Welcome to Team Logan!!
Don't take him Logan. He is a spy.
How does math support an economic model with a currency backed by nothing,
Sure is funny how when the dollar rose it took all those one trick pony economies who export and debase into a dizzy... ask the BOJ about the dollar now
I just bought an another house and will buy more. Even if you bring the Harry Dent's of the world or Peter Schiff's of the world together, one thing is for certain, if America goes down, then the world goes down and there will be no one in a better place. I do not wish to live in fear and will continue on the path that America albeit its problems is still the best place to invest in. What may come or may not come should not dictate continous doom and gloom. Hell, even in depression you can make wealth if you are focused on opportunities than ammo, gold and lake accidents. So stupid there is no word to describe that mentality. I am still on Team Logan and will continue to be on it.
The US dollar is backed by the production capacity of the US. It garners more confidence than any other currency on the planet.
I think the US dollar is actually backed far more in recent years, not by our production, but our huge military spending and political stability. That's kind of been eroding some though.
Manufacturing ...
http://www.businessinsider.com/markit-flash-manufacturing-pmi-may-23-2016-5
Everything sideways and probably some ticks down coming.
Housing starts being goosed ...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/truth-housing-starts-april-2016-160341415.html
If history doesn't repeat itself, but rhyme, what comes next?
Shocking!
You find it shocking that people aren't making far flung predictions toward serfdom in the short term? That's kind of a strange expectation to hold. Why would you think that?
Serfs aren't coming, but some sell-offs and a hiccup or two sure are likely at these heights, by my read. USA cheerleading is only going to get you so far, at this point, Logan.
badges from your conference or a screen shot of your name on CNBC.
You forget all my Interviews on Bloomberg Financial, remember I have done the U.S. Housing Market Preview for the Up coming year for Bloomberg 2014-2016
Not to mention speaking at the BNY Mellon Stock Conference with Bloomberg as well with Kathleen Hays, some of you market people know who I am talking about
Bad choice of color for T.V. I admit
USA cheerleading is only going to get you so far, at this point, Logan
This is why I am keeping this entire thread for 2020 post recession recovery to show that the extreme left if they believe in serfs will be just as wrong as the hyper inflation right
Because you're starting from I need to find flaws about America to fit my economic ideology
Piece by piece name by name ...
All I have to do is wait... nothing less and nothing more for the next recession and recovery stage
This Pizza fight you guys do here Right Vs Left has made you guys way too wild on some of your economic theory...
I just bought an another house and will buy more. Even if you bring the Harry Dent's of the world or Peter Schiff's of the world together, one thing is for certain, if America goes down, then the world goes down and there will be no one in a better place. I do not wish to live in fear and will continue on the path that America albeit its problems is still the best place to invest in. What may come or may not come should not dictate continous doom and gloom. Hell, even in depression you can make wealth if you are focused on opportunities than ammo, gold and lake accidents. So stupid there is no word to describe that mentality. I am still on Team Logan and will continue to be on it.
I totally agree. I'm not going to live in fear, but I'll take when the taking is good. I don't count myself on team Logan. I have general optimism in America long term, but more pessimism in current markets and trends now though.
It's not most of your fault, not many people track economic data for a living.
So, it's easy to pick pocket false economic theories .... cycles come and go.. picked the wrong country in 2016 time frame to predict doom and gloom
We are going to kick the worlds ass in the next 20 years ...
All that will be left are whispers in the wind in some dark malice Forrest about some doom and gloom over that 20 Trillion Dollar 160 Million Plus Working U.S. economy in the next cycle
No Utopia economy out there... but there is one economy
that has King Dollar and also for mature economy has the best demographics on prime age labor face. The main thing that I believe would keep this cycle tamed is going to change in a few years. 2008-2019 was a light demographic patch year, unlike the 1980's and 1990's
No economy grows great forever, but again.. bad time to get super bearish on the U.S.
We will have a recession but the recovery cycle will happen quickly ...
We have an outside shot to post 11 years of economic growth making this a remarkable cycle of expansion while the world has issue...
We only import deflationary factors, we don't import inflation or recession
In a few years you will see what I mean once the recession is done.. no deflationary collapse, no breakdown on the U.S. economy
Peter's World collapse wouldn't happen
Dent 2nd Great Depression won't happen
and America will strive on as the best domestic economy world for a country of its size while other country have demographic deflationary factors to deal with!
It's not most of your fault, not many people track economic data for a living.
And when they do, they can shockingly get it so wrong, like 2000 (dot come crash) and 2008 (housing).
You could be right Logan, the simple thing is I'm not going to be sad to turn dollar signs on paper/screen into actual dollars and stability for myself and family. I'm about to buy myself a whole world of freedom I've never known. I'll likely be able to change my occupation into something more frivolous, risky, and fun as well.
In a few years you will see what I mean once the recession is done..
We aren't in a recession.
I'm not predicting any major crash, I'm just not predicting smooth sailing in the next 4 years. This doesn't read to continue in my mind.
We will have a recession but the recovery cycle will happen quickly ...
Wait, what? So you agree? Sell on/before the dip, and buy in the height of the fear, right?
I don't see us in height of fear territory yet. For me, it's profit taking time. Especially with what I'm holding. :)
We are going to kick the worlds ass in the next 20 years ...
You mean we will be kick ass for 20 years, continuous, starting now? Or we are going to be in a place in 20 years where we are kicking ass?
Wait, what? So you agree? Sell on/before the dip, and buy in the height of the fear, right?
I get it, this is an investment club..
So I threw a few bones out with
HP
UNXL
My biggest and only investment stock MASI
ATEN
and now building a position in TWTR
So, the total market itself.
Look at me in this light, I will give you the economic data breakdown for when the first level recession flag comes up
But the market.. she is old.. but she still has some legs left.
Longest duration period in not breaking into new highs, the strong dollar did it's impact but earnings are coming back.. need to see a break out in Q4 2016 or Q1 because we should get some upside surprises after oil stopped going down and now has a 80% + rally from the lows
Oh dear:
New comment by FP in Team Logan vs Team Depression Serfs:
indigenous says
Hard to say but certainly accurate sentiment on the sign.
Welcome to my ignore list of patent imbeciles.
Why is that the Socialists, the party of the people, are so intolerant?
Just Remember:
The US dollar is backed by the production capacity of the US. It garners more confidence than any other currency on the planet.
all production of physical products shipped overseas,
Also, comparing trash to trash still gives you...
all production of physical products shipped overseas,
It's not true. It's not even a myth. It's a bizarre claim I have never heard before.
I get it, this is an investment club..
I'm just an individual. I'm flattered, but I think that ego makes you think you are talking to important people here on PNet. (wink)
Market news is so positive today, my holdings popped out of their little doldrums (just over 4% gain in 6 days). I'm itching to put in a stop loss floor, but think I'm going to wait just a touch more. I think I might see a little waver down and back and don't won't an early sell.
Look at me in this light, I will give you the economic data breakdown for when the first level recession flag comes up
Thank you, but it won't help me maximize and protect what I currently hold. I only 'trust' the investment brokers who actually take a cut of the funds they are managing for me. Incentives you know.
Market news is so positive today, my holdings popped out of their little doldrums (just over 4% gain in 6 days). I'm itching to put in a stop loss floor, but think I'm going to wait just a touch more. I think I might see a little waver down and back and don't won't an early sell.
Don't gamble with your home, and don't gamble with your retirement funds. It's what your mother would tell you, and she is right.
It's not true. It's not even a myth. It's a bizarre claim I have never heard before.
What rock have you been hiding under? NAFTA, now TPP. Not even Harley is made in the US anymore. Turn over any product in your home and look for the "Made in China" sticker.
Turn over any product in your home and look for the "Made in China" sticker.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/07/ivanka-trump-scarves-made-in-china-recalled.html
However only in the last year or two did China surpass the US, and considering how much the Yuan is manipulated it is dubious that they did surpass the US in manufacturing.
Best to leave him alone he's imagining he has an audience of fools.
This is great idea
A bunch of liberals who can't read economic data properly hiding behind fake names
Compared to a guy if you google his name has tons and I means tons of economic data and actual data mining
It's going to be a honor destroying the extreme left as it has been destroying the extreme right
best part is
You will know who did this to you!
His Name was Logan Mohtashami
A man who only believed in math, facts and data and despises demogoues
This is a war I want... It's time of the extreme left to get the same treatment the extreme right has!
I am here for 20 plus years...
I suggest you guys revise your tone about depression, deflation and any other new normal thesis
Days of lying about economics is done on this site
Think of me as a economic Zoro Not Zero Hedge
I'm itching to put in a stop loss floor, but think I'm going to wait just a touch more. I think I might see a little waver down and back and don't won't an early sell.
Why are you putting a stop loss on an index or anything short term investment you have unless you're channel trading, which is 100% different what we are talking about
I am talking about economic cycles = business cycles , when that ends
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I want names and everyone to pick their side and I want to save this thread for when the next decade comes I want us all to remember those who bet against this country
#Economics
The days of running your false economic theories on this site are over
Pick a side and Let this war begin because the recession timeline isn't that far off ... We will see how your 1929 thesis holds up