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Numbers can't lie.. only people, poets, politicians, promises.
Numbers also don't tell a full story. GDP is growing because of ridiculous healthcare spending as we are over medicating ourselves and trying to fix fat people through drugs, test,and doctor visits instead of food and exercise.
Oil is below $50 even after the dollar sell off. That's recessionary. Oil companies have been able to reap off consumers for 2 years. Finally someone is looking at it: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/major-oil-refiners-investigated-by-california-attorney-general-2016-06-30
I can respect that.
Here's my analysis, coming completely non-partisan although it won't seem that way:
At the end of Democratic Presidencies, the economy tends to be doing well, but only if that President served two terms. At the end of Republican Presidencies, the economy tends to be doing bad regardless of the number of terms held.
That said, I'm probably still going to vote for Trump... hey, I might be able to buy a house once it's all over! :D
instead of food and exercise.
as someone who trains all year round, I agree with you on this one
Data makes it clear when we hit..
1. Unemployment Claims
2. (LEI) leading economic indicators
3. Fed rates hikes fighting inflation
Yes, and watching the yield curve would have helped predict most recessions in the last 50 years. But it may be different now, being that things are broken and all (ZIRP).
If recessions are so easy to understand after they've happened, how come nobody sees them coming ahead of time and does anything about it?
Markets are forward looking. The markets will likely be in a serious correction or worse by the time Logan is certain a recession is coming. What is the famous quote ? Something like, "the stock market has predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions."
Yes, and watching the yield curve would have helped predict most recessions in the last 50 years. But it may be different now, being that things are broken and all (ZIRP).
In the last 50 years falling Industrial production over 1% year over year would have meant recession too. Things are much different in this cycle for sure
So many people banked on this metric giving us a recession late 2015 and for sure 2016
Markets are forward looking. The markets will likely be in a serious correction or worse by the time Logan is certain a recession is coming. What is the famous quote ? Something like, "the stock market has predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions."
Why do so many Patnetters think a recession is just around the corner? We are still recovering from a hangover from the last recession.
The stock market is at all times high in spite of world economic problems. There is no recession on the horizon.
There is a recession on horizon. It will follow bubble. And if it is in US equities which I think it will be, we have a ways to go. The biggest gains are to be gained just before the bubble pops.
The recession is due.
This time it's different. It's a new paradigm. No more recessions.
The stock market is at all times high
If you think the stock market is an accurate representation of the overall economy, you need to put down the wine glass RIGHT NOW!
I literally did. So I could pour a second glass. And I stuck some masking tape over the computer camera lens.
The stock market is at all times high
If you think the stock market is an accurate representation of the overall economy, you need to put down the wine glass RIGHT NOW!
Actually, the stock market is usually 6 to 9 months ahead of the economy.
Actually, the stock market is usually 6 to 9 months ahead of the economy.
OK, so why has the stock market basically flat-lined since Fall of 2014?
Damn recovery isn't done yet. Blame Obama.
Did turning off the QE spicot in the Fall of 2014 have anything to do with the flat lining?
Probably. I believe it's the housing that took us down, and it's housing that will take us back up. Obama has failed to ignite either.
Probably. I believe it's the housing that took us down, and it's housing that will take us back up.
You must be on glass 4..... Who's going to buy all these houses to take us back? Boomers are downsizing and Millennials don't have two nickles to rub together?
I just started glass 2. If there are bidding wars in California, why can't the rest of the nation afford the much cheaper homes outside of California?
Obama has failed to ignite either
Obama didn't break the economy. And he didn't have the power to fix it either.
Read the forums, read a lot. Than Use your own judgment what's comming next. That's the best you can do.
Because nobody really knows.
My gut feeling is telling me that we are still going up for some time. Not too long. Maybe substantially. I'm fully invested. And if I'm wrong, that's fine. That's the best I can do. Do the same gentlemen! Use your own judgment. Because even Logans valid arguments are not Writen in stone.
Obama has failed to ignite either
Obama didn't break the economy. And he didn't have the power to fix it either.
Obama prevented us from going into a depression. I give him credit for that, but he has clearly failed to engineer a complete recovery. Seven years and no recovery is ridiculous. He needs to focus on housing.
Obama prevented us from going into a depression. I give him credit for that, but he has clearly failed to engineer a complete recovery. Seven years and no recovery is ridiculous. He needs to focus on housing.
Obama produced the best recovery possible for asset holders. What do you mean by focusing on housing? Building more? Because interest rates are pretty low. If they built a lot of houses, supply would increase and prices would go down.
This time it's different. It's a new paradigm. No more recessions.
This is actually my thesis, yes.
They really threw out the rulebook 2009-2013.
Shows how the Fed injected $1.2T of new money into the economy through to mid-2010 by funding mortgage originations, in addition to the liquidity games they were playing with their existing wad of treasuries (I can't pretend to understand it but they "lent" like $300B of their treasuries to TBTF so they'd have assets on their books or something).
In 2011 they pumped another $800B into the economy by buying government debt directly (or indirectly but same difference, new money was being created in NYC). Then after the 2012 election was over and done they had free hands to go back to work pumping up the money supply, and they pulled the lever on both pumps, adding another $1.6T to the economy 2013-2014.
Is annual % growth of the age 15-64 population, showing that 1960-80 was a helluva demographic upswing, 1.5% to 2% of "growth" was simply more bodies joining the workforce.
Things are different now, with the boomers leaving about as fast as Gen Y arrives.
(The big spikes in 1990 and 2000 were 'hey, where did all these Mexicans come from??')
We have an economy now that doesn't really need to "grow" any more.
Shows Real (2009 dollars) GDP per working-age (15-64) person is $80,000 now, double what it was in the early 70s.
Isn't $160,000/yr per couple enough to run a household? Why or why not?
Presidents have very little velocity factor due to their structural power in the U.S.
Presidents have very little velocity factor due to their structural power in the U.S.
Unless they can get Congress to open the taps . . .
Annual YOY % growth of Federal spending, 2009 dollars.
The 50's spike was Korea, LBJ saw a nice boost with Great Society and trying to keep SVN out of the ruble bloc, Raygun's 8 budgets look flat but are major mountains compared to Clinton's 8 budgets, as he was being shut down by the initial neoliberal austerity mania of the early 90s and then the Gingrich Congress after 1994.
The twin peaks in the last recession are TARP and then ARRA I suppose, then Congress started playing sequester games, trying to make Obama a one-term president-failure like Carter.
Unless they can get Congress to open the taps . .
A lot U.B. , mandatory payouts, Stimulus package pushed with a lot tax cuts, not a lot spending outside of mandatory items
Wow, that above chart is basically ranking countries by my desire to live there . . .
Except Finland, my ancestors left that place for a reason
Wow, that above chart is basically ranking countries by my desire to live there .
Top 3 countries on that list hate immigrants. You will always be a second class citizen there.
Obama prevented us from going into a depression. I give him credit for that, but he has clearly failed to engineer a complete recovery. Seven years and no recovery is ridiculous. He needs to focus on housing.
Obama produced the best recovery possible for asset holders. What do you mean by focusing on housing? Building more? Because interest rates are pretty low. If they built a lot of houses, supply would increase and prices would go down.
We cannot have an economic recovery without a housing recovery. As simple as that.
I was OK being 2nd-class in Japan for most of the 90s, after all it is their country and we gaikokujin are guests more or less.
Most Japanese IME were happy to make this respect a two-way street, I bring my gaijin A-game and they cut me the necessary slack.
As for Germany, my earliest known ancestor was a Hessian who allegedly absconded from British service during the Revolutionary War so I certainly look more German than Japanese.
The Swiss have a NIIP at 120% of GDP according to Wikipedia, and I respect that greatly, even this wealth position wasn't achieved as honestly as the Swedes or Norwegians (breaking even and at 170%, respectively).
We're at negative 40%, btw.
My plan now is to spend some vacation time touring the socialists paradises this decade, and either retire there or Japan next decade.
Every time I go to a Target or Costco I just want to get the hell out of California. Then again Bellingham might work I guess, and no income tax is a good thing for retirees : )
I saw.. lets give a Big cheer.... to any America who leaves this country!
More Job openings
Lock them all out .... never let them back in ..... unless they write a letter of apologize
I saw.. lets give a Big cheer.... to any America who leaves this country!
More Job openings
Lock them all out .... never let them back in ..... unless they write a letter of apologize
Ha ha ha Logan. You wish you had that power! But you are missing the point. What makes America great is the emigration. You lock the door and this country is going down. Nice note from all star economist!
You lock the door and this country is going down.
Isn't my humor transparent enough ;-)
What is remarkable about America today is that ... coming off the Great Recession and the first decline in prime age labor force growth in decades
America... itself had the most stable economy in the world. People forget all the drama the world economies have had since 2011.
France declared a economic state of emergency
China has had 2 major domestic economic issues since 2011
Brazil .. no comment
Germany dealing with it's old demographic profile and all the Euro members with the 2012 Euro Bond market Crisis ( People simply forgot this drama)
Japan .... a race to debase the Yen to push stocks and in and out negative GDP for many years now
UK... was doing fine up until the Bretexit ... which is a shame I had a a lot U.S. U.K charts to counter Japan and Germany but U.K is slipping and they have a good young demographic profile too
Then all the smaller economies Russia, Argentina, Puerto Rico, Ukraine ... etc etc
Even with a legit oil and commodity crash.. the trend of unemployment claims still stayed steady in the U.S and not even the fall of Industrial production could break us.
Very Impressive!
I saw.. lets give a Big cheer.... to any America who leaves this country!
More Job openings
Lock them all out .... never let them back in ..... unless they write a letter of apologize
For every American that leaves there are a thousand willing to take his place.
Adios baby
Sayonara
Auf Wiedersehn
and good riddance
The way it really works the best is: Make it in America and get the fu.k out of there.
A little exaggerated example would be every NHL player who finishes his career playing in US moves back to his country - either Sweden, Finland, Czech Republic, slovakia, even Russia. And that's almost without exception.
So why are they moving back? This country is fantastic for achieving your financial goals. But there are better ones to retire in late 30ties
The way it really works the best is: Make it in America and get the fu.k out of there.
A little exaggerated example would be every NHL player who finishes his career playing in US moves back to his country - either Sweden, Finland, Czech Republic, slovakia, even Russia. And that's almost without exception.
So why are they moving back? This country is fantastic for achieving your financial goals. But there are better ones to retire in late 30ties
They come here to make it rich. They go back because they can live like kings. The average person is more likely to stay.
Exactly! They did their share. Paid taxes. Made other people rich too. Supported the US economy and left. There is no reason to be nationalistic.
The average person/family can save $1million if he's disciplined enough and works hard and invests in US in 15 years. Than moving somewhere else wold make them increase the quality of life substantially. So, why not?
The average person/family can save $1million if he's disciplined enough and works hard and invests in US in 15 years. Than moving somewhere else wold make them increase the quality of life substantially. So, why not?
It's entirely possible if you are frugal.
One thing good about the collapse in yields
The crazy talk that rising federal debt will lead to higher interest rates...
I dare ya.. I double dare ya to make that claim anymore
Thanks, but i don't need the congratulations. Some of us stuck to our guns through all the mayhem, knowing that this was where we were headed. What i would like, is a no cost re-fi into a 15 year @ 2.0%
;o
re-fi into a 15 year @ 2.0%
Now it's 2% on 15 year.. you're getting greedy
;-)
People are asking about Italian banks now and I tell them this stat
17% of Italy's bank loans are going bad. For US banks in 2008-09 financial crisis, it was 5%
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