patrick.net

Logan Mohtashami says

We are on pace to have the longest expansion ever....

Whatcha mean brother?

thanks

Where is the dividend at now with ARLP? Is there anything special to know , tax wise?

SubOink says

Whatcha mean brother?

You get to mid 2018 with no recession, this is the longest economic expansion without a recession.

72 months of Job expansions that is by far the longest ever

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/10/07/u-s-job-market-still-moving-forward/

The cycle itself has

- 43 year lows in unemployment claims

- Highest Job openings ever recorded in world history

- Longest monthly job expansion streak ever

All with a oil crash, commodity crash, weakness from Europe, Japan, Brazil, Russia and China too

Logan Mohtashami says

We are on pace to have the longest expansion ever....

Thanks Obama.

marcus says

Thanks Obama.

Thank the American economy and its people.

Presidents have very little capacity in an economic cycle due to their power structure.

I always found it amusing how much time is spent on fighting ideological battles but then again we are human, we are tribal.

Obama I would say is the best liberal Republican President I have ever seen in my life. If anything I can criticize him for not spending enough money in the Great Recession aftermath.

However, our demographics, our economy... even in a light demographic patch, we are still by far the best domestic economy in the world and our Dollar owns it

Longest expansion in history!!!

Exactly!

But wouldn't that be like a pretty comon sense thinking that big pull back is comming soon?

Ironworker says

But wouldn't that be like a pretty comon sense thinking that big pull back is comming soon?

Cycles don't die of old age, there are front line data reads to know if a recession is happening.

Zero for 2016.. but Jan 2016 the biggest amount of Americans bears came out because the stock market had it's worst Start to the year ever

So, price isn't everything, I know you investors here believe that but economics is more that just price, it needs confirmation data.

Hence why I wrote that model in the 2016 economic prediction article, zero recession data lines and this cycle can last a lot longer than anyone thinks... I mean a lot longer too.

Logan Mohtashami says

Obama I would say is the best liberal Republican President I have ever seen in my life.

Yes the fallout from Obamacare is tremendous, as is the fallout from Dodd Frank.

Logan Mohtashami says

If anything I can criticize him for not spending enough money in the Great Recession aftermath.

If the economy is doing so well then why did they need to spend any money?

Logan Mohtashami says

we are still by far the best domestic economy in the world and our Dollar owns it

Because our Dollar owns it, how successful would our economy be with the King Dollar?

indigenous says

If the economy is doing so well then why did they need to spend any money

Because regardless of economics, our infrastructure needs repair

I don't really put more weight on economic multiplier on repair projects.

I think MMT and the real hard left are as fraudulent on economic models as the Gold Bugs are on the right

But, we are very frugal in our direct spending and our mandatory payouts are most of our budget

That is at the federal level, infrastructure should be at the state level.

I have read (from your friend DS) that the infrastructure problem is overrated.

Jerry Brown rigs the game and pushes state liabilities for roads off on the Feds, which is how he rolls on everything.

One of the problems with increasing the money supply is that it influences people preferences away from investing in small business. As they prefer easier investing like buybacks and real estate.

Not that you will read this:

https://mises.org/blog/economic-growth-requires-more-low-interest-rates

Hey Logan,
We are planning a meet of all So Cal Patnetters. Dec 10. Please read Turtle Dove's original post.

It's all Obama's fault!!!

indigenous says

Not that you will read this:

Demographics and natural economic equilibrium is the story here and around the world not interest rates

Consumption levels are at all time highs, domestic investment isn't in terms of rate of growth

This is a natural process for older countries, their investment are much smaller in terms of economic output the older they get

Unless they're building out for a growing labor force

Building out for a growing labor force, consumption by younger people is the most powerful factor of demographics

Logan Mohtashami says

This is a natural process for older countries, their investment are much smaller in terms of economic output the older they get

Where is this from?

indigenous says

Where is this from?

Me

Strategist says

Dec 10. Please read Turtle Dove's original post.

Thumbs up

Logan Mohtashami says

Me

It would be nice to see some backup on this.

He might be an asshole, but he has a good grasp on how Americans actually feel about the issues. Not that he sympathizes or anything, but he understands the groundswell of public opinion that drives large political movements across America.

indigenous says

It would be nice to see some backup on this.

I just wrote it :-)

As a demographic guy, that is the number one thing I believe in

Labor force growth and the consumption vs domestic investment model.

This thesis is the main reason I said housing starts would never reach 1.5 Million in this cycle as everyone was calling for

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/09/20/housing-starts-roof-being-tested/

All the housing people earlier in the cycle where using 50 year moving average but weren't adjusting to demographics

Logan Mohtashami says

As a demographic guy, that is the number one thing I believe in

Harry Dent just came out with a new book, he is predicting the apocalypse.

indigenous says

Harry Dent just came out with a new book, he is predicting the apocalypse

He uses demographics to sell Books and his work is based on a zero sum game where everything is a bubble

Why I pick on him a lot, he isn't a true demographic guy in the sense.

NO it does not, overtime politcal lies creates the urge for a bloody revolt

Logan, it's been predicted that technology will be replacing 50% of all jobs within 10-15 years. I don't think anyone can stop progress but what do we do about all those people that won't have a job? Will there be enough new jobs to offset it? Any thoughts?

Be greedy when everyone is fearful and be fearful when everyone is greedy.

I see a lot of greed good time, let's party it's all great out there kind of mood.

I feel fearful now!

I was pretty greedy in 2009. Now I'm scared as hell.

SubOink says

Logan, it's been predicted that technology will be replacing 50% of all jobs within 10-15 years.

Every decade a group of people that says, technology will replace all the jobs in America

Today, the U.S. has 155 Million working Americans and 2016 had the highest job openings print ever recorded in human history in all sector

Laws of demographic turnover, makes the entire discussion mute

It's a flawed thesis from the start, always

For technology displacement there has been millions and millions of new sector jobs created as well

The Automation BS, once used to rationalize the disempowerment of Unions as 'inevitable" is now being used to bullshit away outsourcing.

It's better to have a factory automate, going from 500 employees to 100, but those remaining jobs being well paying engineering and mechanic jobs, than to have no jobs at all.

Mind this data for you all...

Manufacturing is where the displacement technology has really happened ... majority of productivity gains

Today Manufacturing employs 11.3 million people 4th biggest sector in the U.S. but it's less than 9% of the total workforce

I total get why you guys are simply paranoid about the deflationary collapse

It's not your fault to a degree, no training in economic data, so you take cult like variables and push ideological agenda into it

This only works on those who don't track data at all...

Well it's true, not everyone can be good at everything. I mean, even many top notch economists suck at their job. It's staggering how often economists are wrong and still are able to maintain meaningful employment. Maybe they are just biased and in the propaganda business.

Economics is far less of a science than medical or nutritional sciences. Economics is about as scientific as sociology, political science or psychology.

Go buy a bunker if you're this scarred

Goodness... stop with this collapse thesis, its terrible

Logan--

You are legend in your own mind. And only there.

Show me one black swan... that didn't have an economic backdrop explaining the causation

I dare you

I double dare any to do this

Rookies, just simple rookies, you have no training in economics and it shows, even with 70 years of data you're cramming a collapse thesis in less than 18 months

I can't make this stuff up

Logan Mohtashami says

Rookies, just simple rookies, you have no training in economics and it shows ...

You don't see the gorilla do you?

Logan Mohtashami says

Show me one black swan... that didn't have an economic backdrop explaining the causation

Yes, but then I can come up with a reason to explain anything after the fact. "Uhhhhh, it was more sellers than buyers." It's funny to see journalists scramble for reasons for market behavior.

I'm not knocking your reliance on data. That's commendable. And the cool thing is you can change your mind about which data to pay the most attention to after the fact, when the market has a big swing you didn't predict.

You might as well be an Elliot Wave theorist.

Logan Mohtashami says

Show me one black swan... that didn't have an economic backdrop explaining the causation

Show me an option pricing model that doesn't price the way out of the money options in a way that doesn't fit a normal probability distribution. This is becasue the probability of an event of magnitude greater than 3.5 standard deviations from the mean happens more frequently that the math predicts.

A "Black Swan" event is a reference to statistics. It's not about whether you think you can come up with an explanation for what happened after the fact.

marcus says

A "Black Swan" event is a reference to statistics. It's not about whether you think you can come up with an explanation for what happened after the fact.

Exactly

You can't

It's Ghost economic theory

and even if there was such a event, it would be meaningless to the greater good of humans

That's your last grasp hope a deflationary collapse in a strong demographic patch

Wrong country to bet against folks.... Don't you all leave before us Data Miners smoke out your radical economic views in the next decade

This is America.... Not Europe or Japan

Logan Mohtashami says

Today we have 155 Million working people

43 year lows in unemployment claims

You cannot have this ...
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2014/ted_20140423.htm

While you also have this ...
http://www.mybudget360.com/cost-of-living-compare-1975-2015-inflation-price-changes-history/

Demand is going to continue to go down for non-essentials.

Edit: and for those trying to cling to middle class dream, of single family home, a kid or two, with good schools and some leasure time ... it's getting extremely difficult. There is an overabundance of labor for good paying jobs.

Logan--

Why do you insist on portraying people who see potential problems in the foundation of the US economy as America haters? Honesty isn't hating.

Nobody has a problem with you using data--that is commendable. The problem is that your reliance on demographics leads you to poor conclusions. And you ignore the clear warning signs, even when they are huge NEON signs. Your mind is closed and you find data to fit your narrative rather than using data to guide your opinion.

It's sad.

Rew says