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When you adjust it to inflation the YoY data line from a longer duration point 2012-2018 looks nothing like what we saw from 2002-2005 .. this chart proves all that this housing cycle bares no price inflation like we saw in the past
mell saysSimple once you see tech stock prices stall/decline and options become worthless, paired with the first tech layoffs, the current bay area bubble will burst. Not quite there yet but could be close.
And then when many in the Bay Area lose jobs, income, home values, and equity values it will all be rainbows and sunshine again to live there. Errr...
I'd agree that the general US housing market is not in a bubble, but the bay area and other "hot spots" may very well be.
@patrick why doesn’t this link produce an image on pat.net rather than the hyperlinked blue text?
The definition of bubble is a pricks level that can NOT be sustained in the long term. Short term is 3 to 5 years. Long term is 10 to 15 years.
Every 10 to 15 years or so, the economy tends to fall back to earth due to gravity NO matter how much stimulus the politicians or central bankers inject. So do we have a bubble? In stead of looking at all kinds of data and stats which tend to be manipulated and wrongly interpreted, we can simply ask can the buyers at this level will be able to sustain the mortgage for 10 to 15 years with at least one recession that will make the mortgage holder jobless for 1 year or 2.
At current price levels in Cupertino, a couple both working for Apple can NOT afford to buy with 30year fixed rate, they have to go for year rate adjustables, and if one of them gets laid off or the rate gets adjusted 2% higher, they will NOT be able to sustain that mortgage.
patrick why doesn’t this link produce an image on pat.net rather than the hyperlinked blue text?
.. this chart proves
The main problem for the bulls is to explain how we can possibly have rising foreclosures, if there is still room for more inflation. During a bull run, Calif foreclosures are usually nonexistent. It is almost impossible to lose a house unless additional cash out borrowing happened.
It is almost impossible to lose a house unless additional cash out borrowing happened.
Thanks, Logan, we may disagree, but you are using some good evidence. I’ll look at it in depth later.
Prices is all about supply and demand.... 2006-2011 was the holy mother storm of bad things happening at once
$100,000 to prevent foreclosures?
Sure, areas can seem bubbly, but affordability and competition, bidding wars, would seem to weigh strongly in bay area.
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4159428-update-splendid-housing-bubbles-u-s