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19   AD   2020 Nov 24, 11:25am  

WookieMan says
Most of the job losses have been in jobs that didn't result in a high percentage of home ownership (aka renters), or were spousal jobs to help support the breadwinner of the family. I'm at 8% income to debt payment (PITI). We could work at McD's and still make the payment.


All you make great posts on Patrick . Net. This is good insight again Wookie.

True, as the first jobs that get hard hit are the waitresses, the cooks, etc. Hence, restaurant, amusement parks, resorts, cruise lines, and hotel stocks took a major beating. These are working class stiff jobs. For jobs like that, they quickly get rehired as they get fired. And I agree likely they don't own homes, make major contributions to 401k's, etc.

However, the underlying economics will eventually impact the Apple engineer who works from home (WFH) in his new town and state of Miami Beach, FL. Apple will have to cut back as it sees a major drop in purchase of its products over the 2020 holidays. This may mean less bonus or a cut to the engineer's hours.

The same goes for Facebook as advertisers cut back on advertisement spending on social media as working and middle class cut back on spending.


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20   AD   2020 Nov 24, 11:26am  

However, there appears to a V-shaped recovery.

21   AD   2020 Nov 24, 11:30am  

WookieMan says
Poof, it's gone. And that's where I think the crisis is. Municipal debt. We'll see.


Wookie, Illinois is royally fucked. Illinois has a junk bond rating https://illinoiscomptroller.gov/financial-data/fiscal-information/bond-ratings/. Illinois might as well start leasing assets like roads to private companies so they can put up tolls, and open up state forest for companies to come in and remove dead trees for biomass and particle board and engineered-wood construction.

BTW, Florida has the best bond rating at AAA.

That is why Pelosi has been coy about "the COVID bailout" as it is about helping those states like Illinois.

.
22   SunnyvaleCA   2020 Nov 24, 1:08pm  

ad says
Apple will have to cut back as it sees a major drop in purchase of its products over the 2020 holidays. This may mean less bonus or a cut to the engineer's hours.

I think the time horizon for Apple downturn is at least an additional year out. During the cower-in-place, Apple has had it's strongest quarter ever for Mac sales and a considerable rebound in iPad sales. The new crop of iPhones are probably part of an upgrade "super cycle" and didn't ship until the holiday quarter (usually ship September) so the 2020 holiday quarter is likely to be the best iPhone quarter ever by a considerable margin.

Worried about retail stores being closed? Apple has a huge advantage here. There are dozens of different Android phones by several different manufacturers. Some are great phones, some aren't; some work better for some people than for other people; who knows which accessories work with which, etc. Which one are you going to buy sight-unseen? Or, you could go shopping online for an iPhone ... simple: would you like small, medium, or large? Done.

Apple just released a new watch that'll be an easy gift you can buy online (or return to Apple by mail if you really don't like it). Have a 3 or 4 year old Apple watch? Buying the new one sight-unseen is a pretty easy decision.

And have you played with the new Apple Silicon Mac's? For casual users of smallish laptops, these new ones are quite a revelation: thin, light, silent, cool, fast, and really do go all day on a single charge. And, just like with a phone, shopping online for the Apple product is much easier than shopping online among any of the many dozens of alternate offerings.

Apple's stock price has zoomed in the last year and people are worried that the P/E is at historical highs. My thinking is that Apple's increased sales/revenue/profits will grow into that new stock price and bring the P/E way down.
23   richwicks   2020 Nov 24, 1:59pm  

ad says
.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/millions-americans-expect-lose-homes-212124538.html

.


Right, the raging pandemic that has killed 257,016 (officially at the time I write this) out of a country of 300 million people. Why, this super deadly "disease" has killed full 0.0778% of the population. Wow, that's almost 1 out of 1000 people!!

Oh, and the average age of a victim that died form it? That's 75, 3 years old than the life expectancy of 72.
24   richwicks   2020 Nov 24, 1:59pm  

ad says
.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/millions-americans-expect-lose-homes-212124538.html

.


Right, the raging pandemic that has killed 257,016 (officially at the time I write this) out of a country of 330 million people. Why, this super deadly "disease" has killed full 0.0778% of the population. Wow, that's almost 1 out of 1000 people!!

Oh, and the average age of a victim that died form it? That's 75, 3 years old than the life expectancy of 72.
25   Tenpoundbass   2020 Nov 24, 2:00pm  

richwicks says
Were they the people that supported the Iraq War or opposed it? Did they support the bombing of Libya or were they against it?



Hey, Bush can suck both of our Dicks, now what else do you want from me?
26   richwicks   2020 Nov 24, 2:09pm  

Tenpoundbass says
richwicks says
Were they the people that supported the Iraq War or opposed it? Did they support the bombing of Libya or were they against it?


Hey, Bush can suck both of our Dicks, now what else do you want from me?


I'm just lamenting the fact that there are precious few "patriots". There wasn't any difference between Obama and Bush.

I'm pointing out there is no possibility of changing our government through any legal means. We will have to have a literal revolution to fix this nation. Nobody in our upper levels of government will EVER go to jail, unless there's a literal revolution.

And there are no patriots. So, there will be no revolution. People don't even dare to complain about the situation or are entirely unaware of the situation. Your kids are going to be slaves, nearly everybody's kids will be slaves.
27   Shaman   2020 Nov 24, 2:11pm  

richwicks says
Right, the raging pandemic that has killed 257,016 (officially at the time I write this) out of a country of 300 million people. Why, this super deadly "disease" has killed full 0.0778% of the population. Wow, that's almost 1 out of 1000 people!!

Oh, and the average age of a victim that died form it? That's 75, 3 years old than the life expectancy of 72.



Yep. Stupidest pandemic ever. Most people tolerate this killer disease without issues. Some very unhealthy and/or very old people die from it.
So let’s eliminate everyone’s freedom and businesses and jobs and housing in a futile attempt to “stop” the virus!

Of course most of the oldsters are good with this stupid stupid plan because they don’t need to work and it keeps the grandkids from coming over. Also these are narcissistic assholes who would make the world a better place by leaving it.
28   HeadSet   2020 Nov 24, 2:25pm  

it keeps the grandkids from coming over.

I do not know any people who are grandparents who do not want to see the grandkids. No saying some do not want to see them, but I think it is odd.
29   RWSGFY   2020 Nov 24, 2:28pm  

HeadSet says
I do not know any people who are grandparents who do not want to see the grandkids. No saying some do not want to see them, but I think it is odd.


It happens.
30   Blue   2020 Nov 24, 2:40pm  

SunnyvaleCA says
And have you played with the new Apple Silicon Mac


Got one and looks so cool with the new processors, it can handle more load than the old ones. It comes with integrated AI and graphics processors along with new ARM processor. It could boot more profits.
31   Blue   2020 Nov 24, 2:56pm  

Trump might change the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac before leaving. I really want these vacuum cleaners away from accessing government resources.
32   Bd6r   2020 Nov 24, 3:09pm  

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says
WHY DO YOU HATE SUCCESS?

SHUTDOWNS MUST CONTINUE SO BEZOS CAN OWN EVERY SINGLE ATOM IN UNIVERSE!
33   Bd6r   2020 Nov 24, 3:36pm  

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says
AND EXPLOIT EVERY LAST ATOM IN THE UNIVERSE TO MAXIMAL PROFIT SO HE CAN EAT GOD'S FACE!, exactly as the Founding Fathers commanded.

While mining another TRILLION BEZOSCOINS DIGITAL CRYPTOCURRENCY AND machine-gunning few thousands of commoner slaves for fun!
34   Booger   2020 Nov 24, 3:45pm  

Shaman says
Yep. Stupidest pandemic ever. Most people tolerate this killer disease without issues. Some very unhealthy and/or very old people die from it.
So let’s eliminate everyone’s freedom and businesses and jobs and housing in a futile attempt to “stop” the virus!


35   WookieMan   2020 Nov 24, 3:51pm  

FuckCCP89 says
HeadSet says
I do not know any people who are grandparents who do not want to see the grandkids. No saying some do not want to see them, but I think it is odd.


It happens.

Happens way more than you think as CCP says. Sometimes it's the parents keeping the grandkids away and other times it's the grandparents only doing token holiday visits and that's it.

I'll put it this way without going into detail, my MIL is not fit to watch my kids or be around them. So we avoid her at all cost. She's not allowed to watch our kids overnight. Some families are tight, or look tight from the outside looking in. Most aren't.
37   Booger   2020 Nov 24, 4:04pm  

Patrick says
I can't help wondering if the whole damn thing was designed not to just swing the election, but to try to get us to permanently stay at home, for the good of "the environment".


Are you just figuring out this now???
38   WookieMan   2020 Nov 24, 4:24pm  

TrumpingTits says
ad says
That is why Pelosi has been coy about "the COVID bailout" as it is about helping those states like Illinois


90% of that problem is unfunded pension debts.

It mostly is pensions for sure. The lost revenue from use taxes is huuuuuuuuuuuge though. Sales, amusement, airport landing fees, port fees, gas taxes, etc. and in many cases income taxes for the states that have that shit. Much of this stuff has been at 25% of revenue generation for 4-5 months minimum. Income taxes will likely be down 5-10% in most states that have them.

The use taxes are the worst though. They cannot be made up. Muni's budgeted for X, Y and Z and X may have gone to zero in the case of amusement taxes. No sports, concerts or large gatherings. Toll roads budgeted that a certain number of cars would come through and it fell off to nothing practically at the beginning.

The key question is are layoffs the answer or increasing fees? Both would suck, but I predict taxes, fees are going up here soon in a lot of places. Especially if we stay closed down to some extent.
39   HeadSet   2020 Nov 24, 8:42pm  

90% of that problem is unfunded pension debts.

The real impetus behind "Defund the police?"
40   Patrick   2020 Nov 24, 8:51pm  

Dbr6 says
Patrick says
try to get us to permanently stay at home, for the good of "the environment".

don't see why.


You see, when plebeians move around by car, train, bus, or plane, they pollute Jeff Bezos' personal planet.

Also, the plebeians breathe too much, expelling carbon dioxide with every breath. Plebeian breathing must be stopped. A "vaccine" seems likely to help with that.
41   WookieMan   2020 Nov 24, 8:52pm  

HeadSet says
90% of that problem is unfunded pension debts.

The real impetus behind "Defund the police?"

I'd be okay with that kind of defunding. Pick a percentage off your gross pay and invest in a 401k like the rest of us. No more pensions that are guaranteed and unrealistic for the years served and the amount put in.
42   Bd6r   2020 Nov 24, 9:03pm  

Patrick says
You see, when plebeians move around by car, train, bus, or plane, they pollute Jeff Bezos' personal planet.

Also, the plebeians breathe too much, expelling carbon dioxide with every breath. Plebeian breathing must be stopped. A "vaccine" seems likely to help with that.

Let them eat cake.
43   AD   2020 Nov 24, 9:10pm  

WookieMan says
Muni's budgeted for X, Y and Z and X


Here is what is going to happen. They'll meet all or most of the pension obligations while cutting services. They'll freeze or reduce hirings and apply attrition, that is replace 2 retiring workers with 1 worker. They'll cut maintenance on local parks and let the grass grow longer. They'll reduce library hours. They'll increase fees.
44   just_passing_through   2020 Nov 24, 9:20pm  

TrumpingTits says
Zoom towns as they are called.


First time I've heard that phrase. Makes sense.
45   just_passing_through   2020 Nov 24, 9:24pm  

ad says
Here is what is going to happen.


Yeah, we've experienced that in CA over the past 12 years. Funny they talk about defunding police. We already did that. I rarely see a cop when I'm speeding around. My radar detector is nearly useless now.

I wonder if it'll be legal in the state I'll be moving to? Damn thing won't die. It's an escort passport 9500IX. Has a database, gps and 'learns' the false signals so when you drive around it's super quiet. Entirely different than what I had in my hot rod in the 80s.

I can't remember the last time that thing chirped.

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