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Will Russia invade Ukraine?


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2022 Feb 18, 12:20pm   17,385 views  371 comments

by Bd6r   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

Poll

Yes
No
Other answer

My take: Yes

see https://nitter.pussthecat.org/newkc14?source=patrick.net

Evacuation of civilians from Doneck, Gleiwitz-style explosions in Doneck, and a lot of shelling along border.

Less probable is that they just want to increase tensions to get something out of the West (higher oil/gas prices, promises about non-expansion of NATO, etc).

If they do invade, ZH and a lot of skeptics owe Bidet & Co an apology of sorts. Everything goes to crap if invasion happens, as in economy of the world, residual civil liberties, etc, and one can blame Russians for inflation, loss of life quality, etc, instead of real culprit Bidet.

If I'd be conspiratorial, I'd say that Bidet agents in Russia will push for Russian invasion, but on other hand current CIA and military here can only shout pronouns at enemies as seen from Afghanistan debacle.

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176   Bd6r   2022 Feb 26, 8:10am  

komputodo says
Why were they there?

Conscripts from Russian Caucasus republics and Kadyrov's (prorussian Chechen leader) guard. Again, info not from Western media. So the civil war is quite imaginary but invasion is real.
177   komputodo   2022 Feb 26, 9:31am  

Bd6r says
So the civil war is quite imaginary but invasion is real.

To what end? What does russia gain from invading?
178   Bd6r   2022 Feb 26, 9:34am  

komputodo says
what end? What does russia gain from invading?

I think nothing, but then again I am not Putler. He has probably botoxed out his brains.

However, presence of Russian troops in Ukraine does seem to verify invasion. And I did not see that on CNN
179   komputodo   2022 Feb 26, 10:16am  

Bd6r says
komputodo says
what end? What does russia gain from invading?

I think nothing, but then again I am not Putler. He has probably botoxed out his brains.

Yeah that makes sense...I think you nailed it...BTW...Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell of California suggested Friday that kicking Russian students out of U.S. colleges and universities should be looked at as a possible deterrent to Russia after the country's President Vladimir Putin launched an invasion into Ukraine earlier this week.

Asked during a Thursday appearance on "CNN Newsroom" about potential sanctions the U.S. should use against Russia, Swalwell proposed penalizing Russian students attending college in the U.S.
That seems justified...lol
180   komputodo   2022 Feb 26, 11:49am  

Bd6r says
However, presence of Russian troops in Ukraine does seem to verify invasion.

Would NATO troops in the Ukraine also verify invasion by Nato?
181   komputodo   2022 Feb 26, 12:54pm  

HunterTits says
Uhh...seriously?

Uhh.yes.seriously...please educate me
182   AmericanKulak   2022 Feb 26, 12:59pm  

To put in a Russian Friendly government that won't join NATO and maybe sign a non-Aggression Pact, which of course peace-loving Globalists will call (with some justice) made under duress.

If they do this, you should have invested in Eastern Poland, since it will be a seller's market for real estate due to new base openings.
183   richwicks   2022 Feb 26, 3:13pm  

HunterTits says
komputodo says
Uhh.yes.seriously...please educate me


But are YOU serious?

What I mean is that this can't be taught on a PatNet post. You are going to have to invest time and effort. Worth it, tho.

This guy totally predicted this, so I would recommend reading his book


Predicted what? That Russia would eventually attack Ukraine to prevent it from joining NATO?

DUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUH.

You don't need to be a genius to see that.
184   richwicks   2022 Feb 26, 4:53pm  

HunterTits says
No.

That is also not why Russia invaded. Germany would never have agreed to let Ukraine join NATO anyway.


That's the only ultimatum that Putin has been making for YEARS now.

Had Ukraine and NATO simply stated that there were no plans to bring Ukraine into NATO, there would have been no war - at least according to Russia. If NATO and Ukraine had just made this statement, Russia wouldn't have had an excuse to go to war, if that was just cover to begin the war.

HunterTits says
That you believe otherwise is just indicative that you don't know what is going on. Sorry to be an asshole, but it is true.


You could just state what you think is going on, but you won't.

Oh, but it has to be a MYSTERY, you couldn't possibly fit it into a sentence, why I'd have to read volumes of books to have it explained.

Yeah, that's typical bullshit. The truth isn't complicated but lies get very fucking convoluted. I'm not particularly informed about Russia, but I am with US foreign policy and how often they lie and how they always love to make war and mayhem. I'm VERY familiar with that. Quite often the US will draw a "red line" and then do everything they can do to make certain that line is crossed, up to an including false flags like they did in Syria, or just lying about it like they did with the last Iraq War.

I don't know how trustworthy Russia is, but I know PRECISELY how trustworthy the US intelligence agencies are and that's our foreign policy.
185   Bd6r   2022 Feb 26, 4:55pm  

komputodo says
Would NATO troops in the Ukraine also verify invasion by Nato?

Yes. Unless they are invited by UA govt
186   Bd6r   2022 Feb 27, 8:40am  

Russians start talking to Ukranians in Belorus. Which means that invasion is falling apart, contrary to predictions also here

If we dont get a thermonuclear war by cornered Putin, result will be a few centuries of enhanced hate of russ by ukr and birth of a genuine ukranian nation - before they were not nationalists other than in West Ukraine
187   Bd6r   2022 Feb 27, 10:07am  

This morning I talked with a Russian friend of mine who lives in a former USSR country. She has a lot of relatives in Ukraine and Russia, is fairly rich, and has a lot of connections in Russia. I will think over what she said and will write a summary in evening. It is more depressing than what any of us here can imagine.
188   Booger   2022 Feb 27, 12:06pm  

richwicks says
Russia wouldn't have had an excuse to go to war, if that was just cover to begin the war.


They would have gone to war anyway. They don't need a real reason.
191   AmericanKulak   2022 Feb 27, 1:02pm  

Reminder: The Montreaux Convention says ALL Parties cannot send warships in or out of the Bosphorus when activated. That means the USN as well as Russian.

But we all know how the precious Holy Divine Laws International Treaties of Ultimate Goodness when in reality it's an Anarchy of Powerful States.

See also: Nuremberg Laws with COVID. Many Signatories didn't bat an eye Or no Security Council approval for various "Interventions".

And no, folks stuck in the Cold War, it's not Putin Propaganda, it's reality. I fully support the Monroe Doctrine and kicking Soviet Ass in Grenada and Cuba for trying to put in Tupolev Bomber bases and SRBMs there. But the Monroe Doctrine is Evil and Totally Invalidated according to the Divine Rules Based Order the Internationalists want enforced.

International Law is FALSE SECURITY and SELECTIVELY ENFORCED.

How Many Divisions has the Red Cross?

Once people go back to Realpolitik, Concert of Europe thinking, and not the Globaloney International Law BS, they'll see the world and what's possible with clear eyes, not through the Dark Fart Fog of Ideology.
192   Bd6r   2022 Feb 27, 2:32pm  

OK, so I gathered my thoughts and my very limited mental abilities after talking to my Russian friend.

1. Her relatives in Kiev said that yesterday situation for Ukrainans was so dire that military trucks were stopping in cities and giving out AKs and RPGs to anyone who would take them. No documents required. Result is twofold. First, Russians are met with gunfire from every damned house. Second, massive looting by UKRAINIAN criminals who got their hand on weapons (and that is ascribed by Ukr propaganda to Russian troops). Lesson: population should be given guns BEFORE invasion.
2. The idiots in West dont understand East European psychology. They have village patriotism. If Russians attack Donbas, Zhytomyr does not give a shit. Now they attacked whole Ukraine and we will have a Ukrainian nation finally - before it was Soviet invention and ephemeral.
3. Rich russians think that Putin has gone mad. Hence, watch out for nuclear attacks since he is losing grip on reality and power. What does he have to lose - if he loses war in Ukraine or even if there is an unfavorable stalemate, his associates will kill him as is common in those parts of the world. This scares me a lot and you should be afraid as well. We may have the end of civilization as we know it.
4. So called patriotic or anti West Russians are against attacking Ukraine. It is different to liberate Sevastopol where probably 90 pct of population greets Russian troops with flowers. In Mariupol or Kiev they are greeted with RPGs and result is mutual killing of Eastern Slavs, which is anathema to a lot of Russians.

Some of my considerations...
1. It is first time since 1991 when I am actually afraid for what will happen.
2. I am not sure, but supposedly Putin has been vaccinated against covid many times. Perhaps vaccine decreases intellectual abilities, and I am not joking. Before attacking, he had excellent situation where he could threaten to attack and extract concessions. Now it is over.
3. So called imperial type Russians say that Putin sank a lot of money into new weapons, but most of it was stolen. Which is normal around there. Result - most of weapons used to attack Ukraine is of 1989 vintage, same as most Ukrainian weapons. Russian troops have little motivation (see village patriotism above), while Ukrainians have motivation.
4. Zelensky the Ukr president is a Russian speaking Jew. He learned to speak Ukr language after he was elected. So much about Nazis leading Ukraine and oppression of Russian speakers. I think he is genuine Ukr patriot now, I was not sure before.
5. I posted a link to former Soviet KGB/military top brass open letter to Putin a few weeks ago here on Patnet (https://patrick.net/post/1343609/2022-02-08-interesting-development-in-russian-aggr) which said that Putin is an idiot who should step down. This letter convinced me that attack on Ukraine is imminent. See above Eastern Slavs killing Eastern Slavs. Anathema to most Soviet educated military.
6. Russians want talks now. This means their Blitzkrieg did not work. West will try to force Ukrainians to talk. Since they are winning, the only talk should be about Russians surrendering. +Germans with their need for Russian gaz are ones who need talks not Ukrainans. Do stupid greenie crap, win stupid prizes.
7. Someone on Patnet predicted Russian cakewalk in 4 days. It is 4th day and there are now as many dead Russians as in whole first Chechen war.
193   Patrick   2022 Feb 27, 7:28pm  

Bd6r says
The idiots in West dont understand East European psychology. They have village patriotism. If Russians attack Donbas, Zhytomyr does not give a shit. Now they attacked whole Ukraine and we will have a Ukrainian nation finally - before it was Soviet invention and ephemeral.


This is similar to the Irish mentality. Loyalty was only to one's extended family for many centuries. There was no country of Ireland. It took British invasion and occupation to make the Irish think of themselves as one people - in opposition to the British.

The last straw was when the British executed prisoners after the 1916 Easter uprising at the Dublin General Post office, including one who was in a wheelchair. After that, even those Irish who used to think of themselves as British changed their minds.

Oppression creates unity. Putin is really creating the country of Ukraine right now.
194   PeopleUnited   2022 Feb 27, 7:50pm  

Bd6r says
First, Russians are met with gunfire from every damned house.


Doubt it. Most people are simply not brave enough to pull the trigger, especially when they know a trained person is potentially going to be shooting back.

Bd6r says
Rich russians think that Putin has gone mad.


This is possible. I’m sure many believe he has gone mad, and it is possible he has, I mean those images of meetings with advisors where he is half a room away are ridiculous. But, it is also possible that in a mad world he is relatively sane. Not making any judgment here I just am skeptical about both Russian and Western media so both sides and the people who listen to the media/propaganda really have no idea what the truth is. What I do know is this, there is pretty much universal condemnation in the media of what “Putin has done.”

Bd6r says
What does he have to lose - if he loses war in Ukraine or even if there is an unfavorable stalemate, his associates will kill him as is common in those parts of the world. This scares me a lot and you should be afraid as well. We may have the end of civilization as we know it.


Ah, now this is where it really gets interesting. I don’t think in a world where our own scientists created a virus, lied about it, released it, used it to manipulate elections, and implement totalitarian controls that we need to be afraid of a foreign power, any more than we need to be concerned about liars, traitors and despots in our own country and neighborhoods. Sure, ever since the invention of nuclear weapons there has been a threat of their use, but the threat is only slightly more real to you now that you feel Putin may be crazy. If Putin is crazy, what does that say about Fauci? He is a psychopath. And there are many more like him in our own country, in positions of power no less. And for that matter, consider Biden is he any more sane? He keeps pushing worthless and dangerous vaccines for a virus that is only a threat to people who are already immunocompromised.

Don’t fear Putin, your fear is misplaced. Fear the God who created you. When all is said and done, it is either this, do God’s will, or be judged. Your life is like a vapor, it appears for a little while and then quickly vanishes away. Let Putin nuke me, I’ll be happy to be done with my time on this earth, and will rest easy knowing that if God wills that I die in a nuclear holocaust it was his will, and it happened to give Him glory.

I don’t believe for one second that Putin is playing games, nor that he did not anticipate exactly what has happened. I don’t know why he chose to go after the city of Kiev, or if the stories we hear are even remotely true. But I do know that the globalists want us to hate Putin right now. And that should give us all pause.
195   Patrick   2022 Feb 27, 7:56pm  

From the Wikipedia article on Putin:


Putin has promoted explicitly conservative policies in social, cultural, and political matters, both at home and abroad. Putin has attacked globalism and neo-liberalism and is identified by scholars with Russian conservatism.[328] Putin has promoted new think tanks that bring together like-minded intellectuals and writers. For example, the Izborsky Club, founded in 2012 by the conservative right-wing journalist Alexander Prokhanov, stresses (i) Russian nationalism, (ii) the restoration of Russia's historical greatness, and (iii) systematic opposition to liberal ideas and policies.[329] Vladislav Surkov, a senior government official, has been one of the key economics consultants during Putin's presidency.[330]


So Putin is definitely a threat to the woke globalists. This explains a lot.
196   Patrick   2022 Feb 27, 7:59pm  

More support for the point of view that Putin is a threat to the woke globalists:

https://johnwaters.substack.com/p/bonus-content-diary-extracts?source=patrick.net


Events in Ukraine remind me of my childhood school pal, Par Doherty, who at the age of 12 was to be observed puffing on a cigarette every lunchtime behind the science lab. One day, being unable to comprehend the attractions of sticking pencils of rolled up dried weed wrapped in paper in your mouth and setting them on fire, I asked him why he had started smoking in the first place. ‘My mother was always accusing me of smoking, he responded, ‘so I decided I might as well start.’

And so it is with Vladimir Putin. His action of this morning follows years of provocation of Russia within its own ‘sphere of influence,’ as well as its allies within Ukraine. US encouragement of Kiev’s contemptuous treatment of the Minsk accords, while at the same time stringing Ukraine along about its joining NATO in order to wind up Putin, has finally caused him to kick the chair.

Russia cares about Ukraine; the West does not. The ‘West’ — the US and EU — has several motives: Right now, it is looking urgently for an alibi for its two years of Covid crimes against its own peoples, which it hopes to do by creating a state of permanent emergency. A state of New Cold War with Russia will fit the bill perfectly.

Here is the news: ‘Our side’ are the bad guys. They lie and lie in search of some pretext to create a distraction from their encroaching irrelevance as Russia and China grow and grow. The biggest lie is that Russia is intent upon rebuilding the Soviet Union. Instead, Putin is building a new civilisation, based on Christianity, tradition, nationhood and family — all the things that have been under relentless attack in the West from the Woke psychos and saboteurs unwittingly acting for the Combine and spurred on by the local creeps.
197   Bd6r   2022 Feb 27, 8:24pm  

Patrick says
Putin is building a new civilisation, based on Christianity, tradition, nationhood

That is not correct. He is a head of mafia state, after being part of mob in st petersburg. Does carpetbombing of chechen civilians count as Christianity? Does enriching himself counts as Christianity?
198   Bd6r   2022 Feb 27, 8:26pm  

PeopleUnited says
Doubt it. Most people are simply not brave enough to pull the trigger, especially when they know a trained person is potentially going to be shooting back.

Nearly all East Europeans have been through mandatory service in army, they know how to shoot AK or RPG. Many have cycled through various conflicts (Donbass).
Edit: every house is of course an exaggeration.
199   RWSGFY   2022 Feb 27, 8:27pm  

Bd6r says
Patrick says
Putin is building a new civilisation, based on Christianity, tradition, nationhood

That is crap. He is a head of mafia state, after being part of mob in st petersburg. Does carpetbombing of chechen civilians count as Christianity? Does enriching himself counts as Christianity?


Does worshipping NKVD/KGB and Joseph fucking Stalin counts as Christianity?

And getting abortion in Russia is easier then buying a pack of smokes. Has been since 1917 when Bolsheviks came to power and still is. Christianity my ass.
200   PeopleUnited   2022 Feb 27, 8:59pm  

Bd6r says
PeopleUnited says
Doubt it. Most people are simply not brave enough to pull the trigger, especially when they know a trained person is potentially going to be shooting back.

Nearly all East Europeans have been through mandatory service in army, they know how to shoot AK or RPG. Many have cycled through various conflicts (Donbass).
Edit: every house is of course an exaggeration.


Knowing how to shoot and poking your head out in face of a soldier pointing a weapon back at you are two different things. No doubt some will do so, most however will not.
201   Patrick   2022 Feb 27, 9:00pm  

Bd6r says
Patrick says
Putin is building a new civilisation, based on Christianity, tradition, nationhood

That is not correct. He is a head of mafia state, after being part of mob in st petersburg. Does carpetbombing of chechen civilians count as Christianity? Does enriching himself counts as Christianity?


That's not really a quote of me saying that. That's a quote of John Waters. I agree that Putin is a mafioso, and Russia is a mafia state according to my understanding.

But I think he is definitely placing himself in opposition to the woke globalists, and this scares them, because they know that a lot of people are very tired of wokeness and the expansion of global rule by corporations.
202   Patrick   2022 Feb 27, 9:01pm  

I also think the west can no longer claim moral superiority over Putin.

We also have election fraud, and the imprisonment of political opposition, and the crushing of peaceful protests, as in Ottawa.

I would say that at this point, the US government is entirely run by the corporate mafia, places like Pfizer. Pfizer, Moderna, et al dictated the government response to the virus Fauci created in Wuhan, and they did it for their own profit in a very mafia-like way. Opposition was smeared and silenced. I suspect they had Luc Montagnier killed, though I can't prove it.

I've seen interviews with Eastern Europeans and Iranians in Canada saying that scare-mongering tactics and the crushing of dissent are what they came to Canada to escape, but they found the same things in Canada anyway.
203   Bd6r   2022 Feb 27, 9:07pm  

Patrick says
also think the west can no longer claim moral superiority over Putin.

Moral superiority probably ended with Iraq war 2
204   richwicks   2022 Feb 27, 9:10pm  

Booger says
richwicks says
Russia wouldn't have had an excuse to go to war, if that was just cover to begin the war.


They would have gone to war anyway. They don't need a real reason.


No. War for Russia is expensive and something to be avoided.

It's only the US that concocts reasons for war, since the US government currently is, and has been at war against the US population for decades, and war is a good way to steal from them.
205   Patrick   2022 Feb 27, 9:10pm  

From the same article, this also seems quite plausible to me:


Most immediately, this campaign arose from Washington’s desire to scupper the opening of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, which would have shifted the balance of power-loyalties in the world in a manner uncongenial to the US. If ties between Germany and Russia were to become strengthened, there would be no need for NATO, or US military bases in Europe, and this might signal the initiation of a nascent (uncapitalised) new world order — Russia, Germany and possibly China — which the US was not, for obvious reasons, so keen on. One of the direct outcomes of this would have been that the petrodollar would cease to be the default world currency. And, by the by, Ukraine, as the Hunter Biden story (suppressed by the corrupt media) tells us, is also a money-laundering operation for the globalist financial elites.


https://johnwaters.substack.com/p/bonus-content-diary-extracts?source=patrick.net
206   Bd6r   2022 Feb 27, 9:14pm  

Patrick says
Most immediately, this campaign arose from Washington’s desire to scupper the opening of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany

Trump closed it
Bidet removed sanctions for it
War started after sanctions removed by globalist team
Something does not compute here
207   Eric Holder   2022 Feb 27, 9:16pm  

Patrick says
Most immediately, this campaign arose from Washington’s desire to scupper the opening of the Nord Stream 2


It was already dead until Biden revived it. The person who wrote that article is a stupid cunt.
208   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2022 Feb 27, 9:16pm  

Bd6r says
Something does not compute here


Lolz, yeah, Blue Screen Of Death!
209   Patrick   2022 Feb 27, 9:35pm  

Eric Holder says
The person who wrote that article is a stupid cunt.



Nah, he may be wrong on some points, but he's a brilliant cunt for sure:


It is very hard to predict whether or when the people of the West will start to wake up and realise what has been happening to the world they imagine themselves to inhabit. For many years, for sundry reasons, their governments have been working assiduously to transform their societies from democracies to fascist dictatorships properly defined: power cartels of government and corporations with a view to total control. To achieve these ends, they have rotated the political left 180 degrees so that it now, without even knowing it, represents the interests of the greediest and most ruthless forces on earth. While demonising any residual voice of opposition as ‘far right’, these neo-fascist governments are prepared to deal with any bunch of extremists thugs from left or right in order to achieve their primary aim of subjugating and terrorising their populations. Now, they think to present themselves again as champions of democracy.

But the democratic West no longer exists, in anything but name, and in that only because of the continuing corruption of the media, which, at a moment of near-terminal decline, were offered the opportunity to survive a little longer by selling western civilisation down the river, an offer they grabbed with both arms.

It is, after all, a spaghetti western, and our guys are the ones with the manic laughs and the bad moustaches.


https://johnwaters.substack.com/p/bonus-content-diary-extracts?source=patrick.net
210   Patrick   2022 Feb 27, 9:38pm  

He's Irish, so he makes some inside jokes:


In a sense, the Turdeau stuff adds nothing to the mix of what most of us had already experienced of the pathological ugliness of virtually the entirety of the Western political class. He is but a convex mirror held up to Varadkreep and the Taoiseach mehole, both of whom would do the same thing tomorrow if the ordare was issued to them.


Leo Varadkar is president of Ireland (or something like that). Indian father, Irish mother.

Michael Martin (pronounced "mehole" Martin in Irish, but the phonetic spelling no doubt used here to convey that he is an asshole according to the author)

Taoiseach (pronounced tee-shack) is something like president as well. They have two leaders. I don't understand their system.
211   Eric Holder   2022 Feb 27, 9:40pm  

Patrick says
Eric Holder says
The person who wrote that article is a stupid cunt.



Nah, he may be wrong on some points, but he's a brilliant cunt for sure:


My rule of reading is simple: once I encounter a false assertion about something I know for sure, I quit reading and it goes into trash. Because there is no telling about the veracity of the rest of it.
213   AmericanKulak   2022 Feb 27, 10:11pm  

There's a bill to give Ukraine $6B in aid.

The GOP controlled the House from 1994 except two year gap 2009-2010 and then eight years straight, losing only 2019-now. About 20 years of the past 26, the GOP ran the House. For 10 of those years, they also had a Republican President simultaneously, so half the time, a whole decade worth of time.

Never passed $6B for a Southern Wall. Only endless investigatory, white paper, hearings and committees and study groups.

In fact, I distinctly remember them claiming in the late 90s/early 2000s there was no money and that it would be budget busting. Long before we were anywhere near $30T in debt.

Watch them pass the Ukraine Aid bill in days or even hours.

"America Last."
214   Patrick   2022 Feb 27, 10:17pm  

Bd6r says
Patrick says
Most immediately, this campaign arose from Washington’s desire to scupper the opening of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany

Trump closed it
Bidet removed sanctions for it
War started after sanctions removed by globalist team
Something does not compute here


Assume Biden is Russia's puppet. Then things compute better.

Biden brings back pipeline, tells Putin to do whatever he wants in Ukraine.
215   AmericanKulak   2022 Feb 27, 10:24pm  

Or, Russia is partially China's bitch by necessity, and Biden is China's complete Bitch due to bribery and evidence of that bribery the Chinese possess.

China makes Russia a partially dependent state and guarantees itself oil and gas and coal and uranium from Russia in abundance. If Russia shows signs of independence, China suddenly starts cooperating with the West's sanctions until Russia ceases.

Russia gets a guaranteed outlet for energy and cash, along with access to the World's Factory.

China "North Koreanizes" Russia in return for a no-NATO and/or control of Ukraine.

Putin goes along with it because for historical reasons, he feels it's less humilating to be China's half-bitch than owned by Wall Street entirely down to the last nickel mine.

The other great advantage is that China can use it's half-bitch Russia to distract Europeans when it wants Aksai Chin or Taiwan.

JUST LIKE IT USES NORTH KOREA TO PESTER THE US AND JAPAN when it doesn't like what is happening, or needs to harass the US or Japan as a distraction. Always offering to be a go-between, of course.

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