by Zak ➕follow (0) 💰tip ignore
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I have no problem with house prices declining. I just want a put option on the value of MY house, or my region's housing.
By the way, if YOU think house prices are going to come down, you should be looking at the exact same thing I'm looking at. If you put some skin on housing put options, then when prices decline, in addition to getting a house at a lower price, you will have your put option money to buy that house with.
If you think we are in for more insanity of rising prices, or even just that prices won't decline, you can sell me the put options, and take my money in the form of an insurance premium. And if you are/have been irritated with prices rising out of your reach, and think that will continue, you can buy some call options, and offset your purchasing power loss as the prices rise.
Don't get angry, get educated, positioned, and risk mitigated.
Of course you won’t do this because deep down you realize that a 50% decline isn’t going to happen.
Explain step by step please? Who, what, where, when, how much etc. Like, who do I call to set something like this up?
According to the county, the median household income is 106k. That puts the median house price at 424k at 4x median income (the traditional rule).
I think that median house prices will revert to 3.5 - 4x the median income. I think they will overshoot heading there.
but people who bought 3 years ago or more have a fairly big equity cushion even if they only put 10% down
SunnyvaleCA saysbut people who bought 3 years ago or more have a fairly big equity cushion even if they only put 10% down
Do they?
DooDahMan gives some of the worst financial advise I've ever read. I'd speculate it's a Logan clone account
DooDahMan gives some of the worst financial advise I've ever read. I'd speculate it's a Logan clone account, as his original account has the record for ignore's, and reaches no one on this site anymore.
NuttBoxer saysDooDahMan gives some of the worst financial advise I've ever read
Doo Dah Man isn't concerned - you are still working and hoping to have a decent retirement etc.
As for Logan's advice - might be time for you to pay attention, he has a stellar track record, is a multimillionaire and has some great street creds. And yourself ?
with 8% inflation, which is probably closer to 20%, price of everything going up, that means price per square foot to build is going up, that means labor cost is going up, its not gonna get cheaper. housing like stock market, work on compound interest almost. that's just how it works out.
My mortgages on all my houses (primary + investments) are all significantly lower than market rents. Most homeowners are in the same boat.. That's probably true, but not for silicon valley! On the other hand, silicon valley is hardly a stand-in for any other part of the country.
I think I can answer that one for Nuttboxer:
Doesnt own a house > nothing to show for
Tells himself that he is winning by renting in California long term
Labels everyone who has a bullish outlook on housing as Logan Motashami
Never responds to specific questions
Talks about the upcoming economic collapse since (years?)
It all comes down to monthly payments. Nobody in their right mind gives up on their low, locked in rates and leaves homeownership voluntarily.
Bitcoin saysHarsh but true.I think I can answer that one for Nuttboxer:
Doesnt own a house > nothing to show for
Tells himself that he is winning by renting in California long term
Labels everyone who has a bullish outlook on housing as Logan Motashami
Never responds to specific questions
Talks about the upcoming economic collapse since (years?)
Dude, you took an experimental vaccine, made fun of people that warned you against it, had a negative reaction, came here for help, got it, and then got a booster.
You're the last person anybody should listen to for advice.
Then you would speculate wrong - if he ever came back here which is extremely unlikely (about the same as seeing Dan8267 again) - he would use his real name as he did in the past - Logan is the real deal like him or not.
Doo Dah Man isn't concerned - you are still working and hoping to have a decent retirement etc.
As for Logan's advice - might be time for you to pay attention, he has a stellar track record, is a multimillionaire and has some great street creds. And yourself ?
It’s that simple when the Fed aggressively contracts the bloated economy they built.
richwicks saysBitcoin saysHarsh but true.I think I can answer that one for Nuttboxer:
Doesnt own a house > nothing to show for
Tells himself that he is winning by renting in California long term
Labels everyone who has a bullish outlook on housing as Logan Motashami
Never responds to specific questions
Talks about the upcoming economic collapse since (years?)
Dude, you took an experimental vaccine, made fun of people that warned you against it, had a negative reaction, came here for help, got it, and then got a booster.
You're the last person anybody should listen to for advice.
DooDahMan saysThen you would speculate wrong - if he ever came back here which is extremely unlikely (about the same as seeing Dan8267 again) - he would use his real name as he did in the past - Logan is the real deal like him or not.
Well now I'm certain it's you. Logan(you) started posting under Save Ukraine, everyone who's been on the site recently knows this. Patrick doesn't ban too often, but sneaking around the ignore by creating a second account, better hope he doesn't catch on.
That's why I think "this time is different" compared to the 2008 crash
If the economy crashes tomorrow, wiping out all assets that derive their value solely from inflated federal dollars, what will you have left?
Then its either war with China to distract us from the shit bomb, or again, the people actually say fuck you government, and basically throw everyone out.
On a side note you do not have to attempt to show anyone anything - just show up here, not be a "regular" and the conspiracies about you take off
Even the 160k 3bed houses have 5k$ price cuts. Here it comes!
Retirement is a concept made up by bankers trying to bilk people out of the best years of their life. I've always made a habit of enjoying life now, with no plans on retiring, just transitioning to work I enjoy more.
NuttBoxer saysWell now I'm certain it's you.
DooDahMan gives some of the worst financial advise I've ever read. I'd speculate it's a Logan clone account,
banks don’t carry residential mortgages on their books
This makes me think the Fed is less nervous because the banks will be safe unlike last time.
no matter how much you paid for it and how much it's worth then or now, pay it off is the best thing you could do.
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After purchasing a house a few years ago, even though I swore I was going to lose money, it turns out that for the time being, and on paper, I'm way up. But I, like many of you, feel that this entire market is back in 2007 levels of crazy, and ripe for decline with the interest rate hikes. That said, I live in a house I am comfortable with the payment on, but the "equity" I would get if I sold would be a significant difference in our retirement vs if that "fake money" just evaporates back to nothing.
So, finally, instead of hemming and hawing about sell, or not sell, it finally occurred to me that what people do in volatile asset situations is hedge. But here, I am a bit lost on how to hedge. So... does anyone else here have a similar predicament, and are any of you taking specific steps to hedge a house price decline?
Thanks!