patrick.net

zzyzzx says

The Pandemic Housing Bubble is bursting—U.S. home prices falling 15% looks ‘conservative’

Yup. Prices falling into the down payment range will start the cycle of borrowers handing back the keys as they see their down payment equities dissolving, and their investments showing no signs of increasing to cover their costs.

With my infallibly wrong future crystal ball, I would estimate price drops of 25 percent or more.

Ceffer says

With my infallibly wrong future crystal ball, I would estimate price drops of 25 percent or more.

I'm not a housing bull. But I don't think most of the nation sees that much of a drop. They'll just lower interest rates to keep prices where they're at or slightly lower. If we got supply chains and oil production back to even normal, we'd have a perfectly fine economy.

For whatever reason we have a POTUS that wants high energy prices. And it's not for green energy. If it was, we'd build a huge solar array and wind farm in Utah or Nevada with the billions we've sent to Ukraine. Less reliance on hydro for power, more water for AZ and CA. It's like people don't think... or we all know the real deal. They're all bribed and bought.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/yty6vn/rental_prices_dropping/

Rental prices dropping

https://www.businessinsider.com/when-will-rents-fall-keep-going-down-housing-outlook-2022-10

Rents are starting to fall across the US — and they're set to drop even more in 2023

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/yty6vn/rental_prices_dropping/

Rental prices dropping

Prices on everything are going to drop when no one can afford it. Housing has interest rates though. They'll just lower them until inflation ticks up again. This is how it's always worked in most of our lifetimes. The housing bust was giving unqualified people loans. Until 12-18 months ago your rate was still in the 4's or less. People can afford their homes. You'd need a job loss recession. That doesn't appear to be happening outside of tech.

You can't find laborers in almost any field in the country. Plumbers, electricians, heavy machine operators, etc. Everyone got a dumb ass arts degree. No one got into the trades. My kids could be millionaires by 25 if I gave them the business acumen and they learned the trades. Young people simply aren't doing it. Sweat some pipes, turn a wrench, glue pipes, it's not fucking complicated. You could be making $100k no problem by 20.

WookieMan says

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/yty6vn/rental_prices_dropping/

Rental prices dropping

Prices on everything are going to drop when no one can afford it. Housing has interest rates though. They'll just lower them until inflation ticks up again. This is how it's always worked in most of our lifetimes. The housing bust was giving unqualified people loans. Until 12-18 months ago your rate was still in the 4's or less. People can afford their homes. You'd need a job loss recession. That doesn't appear to be happening outside of tech.

You can't find laborers in almost any field in the country. Plumbers, electricians, heavy machine operators, etc. Everyone got a dumb ass arts degree. No one got into the trades...

Local Chick-fill-a (or whatever the silly spelling) is advertizing $20.50/hr starting pay.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/yu76vv/blood_in_the_streets_brokersagents_what_is_your/

A group I work with is a medium sized team in a larger metro.

We have seen 30% of our agents leave in the past month. On top of that we laid off 50% of our admins in the past two weeks. Morale is beyond low.

For every 1% increase in the 30 year rate mortgage, there is a 10% drop in price.

The Fed Funds rate needs to steady around 4.5% and inflation needs to continue to drop below 6% in 2023, so that interest rates like prime rate and 30 year mortgage rate drop and steady.

I am hoping the 30 year mortgage rate steadies around 5% to 5.5%. House prices then would need to go down about 20% to 25%. That should be enough to return them near to 2020 levels.

ad says

I am hoping the 30 year mortgage rate steadies around 5% to 5.5%. House prices then would need to go down about 20% to 25%.

America had a long period of prosperity during the decades where passbook savings were 6% and mortgages were about 8%. Savers were rewarded and a man with a job at a gas station could support a family.

HeadSet says

America had a long period of prosperity during the decades where passbook savings were 6% and mortgages were about 8%. Savers were rewarded and a man with a job at a gas station could support a family.

I understand. However, those were much different times (i.e., 1950s). There was no free trade working against the American working class.

.

ad says

For every 1% increase in the 30 year rate mortgage, there is a 10% drop in price.

The Fed Funds rate needs to steady around 4.5% and inflation needs to continue to drop below 6% in 2023, so that interest rates like prime rate and 30 year mortgage rate drop and steady.

I am hoping the 30 year mortgage rate steadies around 5% to 5.5%. House prices then would need to go down about 20% to 25%. That should be enough to return them near to 2020 levels.

Well, since we started around 3%, and we are at 7%, does that mean prices should be 40% less? I’ve seen 10-15% drop so far. Anything more than 30% drop will bring investment capital sniffing around for deals on long-term investments/rentals.

HeadSet says

ad says

I am hoping the 30 year mortgage rate steadies around 5% to 5.5%. House prices then would need to go down about 20% to 25%.

America had a long period of prosperity during the decades where passbook savings were 6% and mortgages were about 8%. Savers were rewarded and a man with a job at a gas station could support a family.

And I would argue those were much better days for America as a whole.

GNL says

America had a long period of prosperity during the decades where passbook savings were 6% and mortgages were about 8%. Savers were rewarded and a man with a job at a gas station could support a family.

And I would argue those were much better days for America as a whole.

They don't have starter homes anymore. County governments especially California are not going to approve single family detached houses that are priced for the working class. Maybe Florida as I am seeing this in the Florida handle that a couple who both make $16 an hour (entry level here salary) could afford a small detached home (3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1 car garage).

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/yvrl6j/closing_in_7_days_is_it_too_late_to_pull_out/

Closing in 7 days, is it too late to pull out?

Pulling out will always save you money if you know what i mean.

Got a cold call out of the blue yesterday from an agent wanting to know if I was interested in selling and if was curious how much my house would sell for. I have an unlisted number so not sure how she got it, but even after saying no she kept at it for a bit until I asked her what part of "no" did she not understand.

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/ywrvxp/no_shame/

I just put an offer in on a house and it got accepted same day. It was an Open Door house and I got it for $70k less than what they paid for it in May ($130k less than what it was listed for in June).

ad says

passbook savings were 6%

They were much better days--50% of the population didn't expect the other 50% to support them. Also, if all you had at retirement was $100K, put in a 6% CD would produce about $500 a month risk free income that would be spent and taxed. Zero % interest rates were kept around so long no one remembers when they were 5%-6% and zero seems normal now.

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/ywrvxp/no_shame/

I just put an offer in on a house and it got accepted same day. It was an Open Door house and I got it for $70k less than what they paid for it in May ($130k less than what it was listed for in June).

Still doesn't mean it is a bargain.

RWSGFY says

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/ywrvxp/no_shame/

I just put an offer in on a house and it got accepted same day

hmmm no counter offer. Means they paid too much.

B.A.C.A.H. says

RWSGFY says

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/ywrvxp/no_shame/

I just put an offer in on a house and it got accepted same day

hmmm no counter offer. Means they paid too much.

Yep, and I do not see what the original listing price was. How do we know it wasn't a 3 million dollar home?

Pulling out? Is this Catholic birth control in the real estate market?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/existing-home-sales-fall-october-150015452.html

Existing home sales fall for 9th straight month in October

Booger says

Booger, here in Silly Con Valley, I know someone just like that.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/not-time-greedy-home-flippers-110000999.html

Not the time to get greedy': Home flippers getting burned by the US housing downturn are now slashing prices to cut losses — here are the 2 big reasons

Buying houses is the bestest investment that never was, cause everyone knows real state never, ever goes down.

https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/z050bx/probably_lost_750k_in_equity_this_year_on_real/

Probably lost $750k in equity this year on real estate investments. How about you?

Why are rents going down? I would think rentals would have more customers as less people are able to buy.

Booger says

Booger, where is this?

https://lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot.com/?m=1

HeadSet says

Why are rents going down?

Rents are starting to fall across the US — and they're set to drop even more in 2023

https://www.businessinsider.com/when-will-rents-fall-keep-going-down-housing-outlook-2022-10