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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   434,283 views  4,664 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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1680   Eman   2023 Jan 31, 3:44pm  

For anyone who is interested in real estate, or where we are in the current housing cycle, bubble or not, etc…. Bruce Norris, who is considered the oracle of real estate by California real estate investors, will share his insights on it. Expect the event to be packed.


1682   Ceffer   2023 Feb 1, 7:32am  

zzyzzx says

Would you buy a house where someone committed suicide?

If it was the real estate agent, it'd be a gimme.
1684   zzyzzx   2023 Feb 2, 9:32am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackstone-69-billion-real-estate-134542719.html

Blackstone’s $69 Billion Real Estate Fund Hit Monthly Redemption Limit in January
1685   GNL   2023 Feb 2, 9:39am  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackstone-69-billion-real-estate-134542719.html

Blackstone’s $69 Billion Real Estate Fund Hit Monthly Redemption Limit in January

What does that mean?
1686   zzyzzx   2023 Feb 2, 9:53am  

GNL says

zzyzzx says


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackstone-69-billion-real-estate-134542719.html

Blackstone’s $69 Billion Real Estate Fund Hit Monthly Redemption Limit in January

What does that mean?


Means that people want to get out of real estate, but can't because the fund limits redemptions to avoid a free fall.
1688   GNL   2023 Feb 3, 9:48am  

zzyzzx says


GNL says


zzyzzx says


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackstone-69-billion-real-estate-134542719.html

Blackstone’s $69 Billion Real Estate Fund Hit Monthly Redemption Limit in January

What does that mean?



Means that people want to get out of real estate, but can't because the fund limits redemptions to avoid a free fall.


"Redemption", meaning they can't sell their stock/interest in the fund once a limited amount of real estate inside the fund has been sold?
1689   Robert Sproul   2023 Feb 3, 9:58am  

Eman says

For anyone who is interested in real estate, or where we are in the current housing cycle, bubble or not, etc…. Bruce Norris, who is considered the oracle of real estate by California real estate investors, will share his insights on it. Expect the event to be packed.

I assume you are going, maybe you can give us a brief report?
1690   AD   2023 Feb 5, 8:31pm  

For every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there is a 10% drop in price.

Peak housing prices were set at around a 3.25% to 3.5% rate. So if the 30 year mortgage rate settles around 5.5%, then housing needs to at least drop 20% to 25% from peak pricing levels.

Also, the home price to household income ratio should be around 4 for a 30 year mortgage rate of 4.5% to 5.5%.

The ratio is 5 for a rate of 3%, based on my own experience securing a VA mortgage in late summer 2016 and what the regional bank mortgage broker stated, in addition to total monthly payments (principal+interest+insurance+taxes+HOA quarterly assessment) not being more than 37% of household income.

The mortgage broker reminded me I was foremost buying monthly payments as the bank owned the home until the loan was paid off.

A $400,000 mortgage would correspond to an annual household income of $100,000 to $133,000. Granted, a buyer may make a 20% down payment for a $400,000 home given they may have proceeds from a previous home sale, stock sale, etc.

Median household income was around $72,000 in 2022.

Median sales price is around $467,000 in last quarter of 2022. It was $329,000 during first quarter of 2020 :-/
1693   HeadSet   2023 Feb 6, 11:30am  

I knew I should have bought a home in Kindergarten and not wait until First Grade. I blame the teacher.
1694   GNL   2023 Feb 6, 12:33pm  

cisTits says

zzyzzx says







...and now we get to hear some bullshit Housing Expert story that flies into the face of data.

What about falling prices?
1695   HeadSet   2023 Feb 6, 1:50pm  

cisTits says

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate spiked to 6.39% today, according to Mortgage News Daily, having bounced by 40 basis points in two days off the low of 5.99% on Thursday, giving up a month worth of declines in two days.

Good. Mortgages need to go up to 7.5% to 8%.
1696   REpro   2023 Feb 7, 8:29am  

Eman says

For anyone who is interested in real estate, or where we are in the current housing cycle, bubble or not, etc…. Bruce Norris, who is considered the oracle of real estate by California real estate investors, will share his insights on it. Expect the event to be packed.





I did attend his meetings years ago.
I like his academic style presentation with supporting research.
He is a very good motivator.
1698   zzyzzx   2023 Feb 7, 9:05am  

Home-Buying Companies Stuck With Hundreds of Houses as Demand Slows

https://archive.is/BXokx
1699   Shaman   2023 Feb 7, 9:06am  

The boomers are sick and dying thanks the the vax and being old. Give it a couple years and the mass glut of boomer property on the market will swamp potential buyers with cheap housing.
1700   zzyzzx   2023 Feb 8, 6:16am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-one-size-fits-plan-150000623.html

Looks like Biden is trying to put a lot of smaller landlords out of business. They will sell their housing stock.
1703   zzyzzx   2023 Feb 10, 11:36am  

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/10x4qxg/hold_your_ground_when_the_listing_agent_comes/

Yesterday morning, our offer $13k under asking was accepted. Yesterday afternoon, they “received a full price bid” and were going to be so kind as to let us match the full price if we really wanted the house. We “regretfully declined” to increase our offer at 5:00pm

This morning, at 8:57am, our offer was accepted again.
1704   AD   2023 Feb 10, 3:04pm  

Rent is going down. This will help as far as government reported inflation (i.e., CPI). Stocks should fare better with a lower inflation report this month. Silver and gold may not fare as well unless dollar index (DXY) significantly retreats.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/us-asking-rent-cools-to-near-one-year-low-in-january-as-demand-wanes-supply-grows/ar-AA17kH1C

,
1705   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2023 Feb 10, 4:23pm  

ad says


This will help as far as government reported inflation (i.e., CPI).

It's the perceptions of those polled regarding owner equivalent rent that is used in the CPI. Don't expect much in terms of accuracy from the sheeple.
1706   AD   2023 Feb 10, 8:43pm  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says


It's the perceptions of those polled regarding owner equivalent rent that is used in the CPI. Don't expect much in terms of accuracy from the sheeple.


True about "owner equivalent rent", the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks rental prices by sampling about 50,000 rental units nationwide and uses the average rents paid for comparable housing (within the same area or zip code).

So they would have to find a comparable rental for my home (3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage, 2 miles from beach in Florida panhandle); they could query some of the rentals in my HOA which are identical in size and design.

I guess for more unique homes which are not "cookie cookie cutter" like detached 4 bedroom homes in non-HOA neighborhoods, the BLS would have to adjust and extrapolate the best they can to apply the "owner equivalent rent" method.

I understand that is the best way for CPI to aggregate or account for housing related cost for owner occupied homes.

I also read CPI considers housing related cost to be 33% of total CPI.

I recall FHA and VA mortgage allows up to around 35% of income to be for housing costs (mortgage, property tax, property insurance and HOA fee).

.
1707   AD   2023 Feb 10, 8:49pm  

But I look at the CPI as just a gauge as far as housing trends such as if housing costs are trending down for last 6 months in general.
1708   Eman   2023 Feb 10, 9:52pm  

ad says


Rent is going down. This will help as far as government reported inflation (i.e., CPI). Stocks should fare better with a lower inflation report this month. Silver and gold may not fare as well unless dollar index (DXY) significantly retreats.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/us-asking-rent-cools-to-near-one-year-low-in-january-as-demand-wanes-supply-grows/ar-AA17kH1C

@ad,

Do you see rental softness in your market? It’s down 5.4% from the peak in August, but still up 2.4% YoY. This trend won’t last very long in the next few months, but 5.4% seems insignificant given rent prices have gone through the roof in the last decade.

In my San Jose market, rents are holding steady while rents around SJSU hit record high. I guess more people are going back to school in the current economic environment.
1709   AD   2023 Feb 12, 12:07am  

Eman says

Do you see rental softness in your market?


I see more deals being made by apartment owners such as give 1 month rent free for a 13 month lease.
.
1710   Booger   2023 Feb 12, 2:24pm  

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/10z2hf7/did_you_move_away_from_your_place_of_employment/

This happened to my neighbor. She moved out of the city and loved it but then a while ago her business said they had to come back 2 or 3 days a week. She moved a bit closer but the train was still pain so she would do 1-2 days? They laid her off in the first round.
1711   GNL   2023 Feb 12, 4:01pm  

Booger says

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/10z2hf7/did_you_move_away_from_your_place_of_employment/

This happened to my neighbor. She moved out of the city and loved it but then a while ago her business said they had to come back 2 or 3 days a week. She moved a bit closer but the train was still pain so she would do 1-2 days? They laid her off in the first round.

Ouch.
1712   AD   2023 Feb 12, 10:49pm  

Booger says

This happened to my neighbor.


I suspect employers do this since they have leverage over the employee. What company laid off your neighbor ?

.
1714   Booger   2023 Feb 13, 8:55am  

ad says

What company laid off your neighbor ?


It was a quote from a reddit post. Not an actual neighbor of mine
1716   AD   2023 Feb 13, 11:05pm  

cisTits says

The hopes of an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the 5%-range that were widely bandied about in January have now vanished.


Maybe sign up for a 7 year ARM and then refinance before the expiration date for the mortgage. US Bank is advertising today a rate of 5.6% for a 7 year ARM.

Navy Federal Credit Union advertises a 4.75% rate for 5 year (5/5) conforming ARM.

I know the prime rate is usually about 2.25% greater than than Fed Funds rate, and the prime rate is used such as with HELOC's, business loans, etc.

The 30 year mortgage rate is a lot less reliable than the prime rate as far as tracking the Fed Funds rate, inflation rate, etc.
1717   gabbar   2023 Feb 14, 2:50am  

Anyone have any experience with Ally Bank? They have 5 year CD's for above 4% rate of interest
1718   porkchopXpress   2023 Feb 14, 5:32am  

gabbar says

Anyone have any experience with Ally Bank? They have 5 year CD's for above 4% rate of interest
I've been banking with Ally for several years and almost did my home loan through them, but I got a better deal with a local bank. Ally is awesome. I've never invested in their CDs though.
1719   RWSGFY   2023 Feb 14, 7:49am  

gabbar says

Anyone have any experience with Ally Bank? They have 5 year CD's for above 4% rate of interest


You mean they have a rate below inflation and you'll be taxed on the interest you earn? Some deal.

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