1
1

I'm excited for housing


 invite response                
2023 Mar 21, 4:54pm   8,698 views  82 comments

by AmericanKulak   ➕follow (9)   💰tip   ignore  

1957 - the peak birth year in all US history, with no equivalent year for working generations on the horizon.

All those boomers whose median age is 66 in the next decade getting COPD, CHF, and broken hips unable to keep up and mow their .25-.5 acre, 3-4 bed/1.5-2.5 bed home.

All those boomers still married about to experience the Grey Divorce wave and having to sell to split equity, then having to survive on one half retirement.

Interest rates probably staying reasonably historically normal (7% is not high, it's about the 50-year average since 1970) for the next couple of years at least.

A White Collar Female recession, busting down the #1 spenders of consumer goods as companies slash HR, PR, Marketing, DIE, etc. to maintain or restore profitability.

Severe shortage of skilled trades like Welding, Plumbing, Practical Nursing causing a boom for the Technical School-but-not-College educated.

The collapse of Blackrock/investor owned SFHs, Triplexes, small Apt complexes due to banks tranching out loans and increased maintenance and property tax costs, plus institutions pulling from current holdings to pay out retirees. No more awash with cash from Middle Aged/Nearing Retirement Age workers piling money INTO 401ks and TIAA-CREF.

It's a great time to be a Working Age Male. Save your cash and get ready to build some serious wealth.

« First        Comments 33 - 72 of 82       Last »     Search these comments

33   AmericanKulak   2023 Mar 23, 4:30pm  

Tenpoundbass says


Dysfunctional Families, that there's a load of bullshit the Godless Childless Loveless Commies coined to conn the American Nuclear family into believing that a Family with occasional disputes and discord, is somehow toxic and should be disbanded for the kid's sake. But then it turned out that it fucked those kids up to have their family structure ripped out from under them over a few petty words from Lesbian and Commie fag authors.

Yes, yet traditionalists need to be honest about how Grandpa Joe and certainly the Great+ Grandpas had to occasionally smack a wife's ass, could legally conceal money from wives, women needed permission to use husband's cards or cash, banks would not let wives access safety deposit boxes, etc.

"Shuddup, Margeret. Make me a sandwich. No more lace doillies. If you sneak into my desk and steal another $5, it's to the moon, Alice."

Now most of those wife management techniques are illegal/actionable and will put a man in jail or lose half his wealth. They were perfectly normal in Granddad's day. You don't need to go back that far to see it in Media as acceptable, and even starting a laugh track: The Honeymooners, or the McClintock movies (Donovan's Reef). In the lifetime of people living today.

Trads ignore the Fact of Historical Male Dominance in Marriage







(Note the women in this scene laughing as well - "Boy, she really pushed him too far and she's getting her comeuppance, hahaha")

This can't be ignored, since family/marriage is the cornerstone of society. Truthfully, female wilding is a top reason we are where we are. Nor is it all a "Side effect" of other things as Trads try to claim, it's actually a major Driving Thing. There's a reason all of civilization puts the women under the man's rubric, and it starts falling apart when they aren't.
34   Tenpoundbass   2023 Mar 23, 5:02pm  

Nor all husband's and men where abusive cads, there no shortage of fish monger wives,with a constant sour scorn. the true partnerships didn't make compelling stories. That's why we only think of the extremes.
35   AmericanKulak   2023 Mar 23, 5:06pm  

Tenpoundbass says


Nor all husband's and men where abusive cads, there no shortage of fish monger wives,with a constant sour scorn. the true partnerships didn't make compelling stories. That's why we only think of the extremes.

Of course.

But there were means of reigning in female bad behavior by men, especially earlier in the marriage when they were young and the woman tried to dominate the man and he gave her some spankings now and again. Today, that's totally illegal.

Now we're utterly dependent on women being "Good" which, if you know girls and women, is a shit bet because All women/girls misbehave and Shit Test periodically. The reason they were better in the previous generations is because running a Shit Test too long had consequences from the man, and Men were regarded as Prizes for women not the other way around. Didn't need to be physical, he could simply take away her allowance for hair or fripperies.

When dating, men can also simply get up and leave as a shit test check.

When married with kids, men can't just get up and leave.
36   Patrick   2023 Mar 23, 5:14pm  

AmericanKulak says


There's a reason all of civilization puts the women under the man's rubric, and it starts falling apart when they aren't.


This is true. Women's minds are as different from men's minds as women's bodies are different from men's bodies.

Example: women have no inclination to defend borders because they know they will be taken care of, or at least not killed, no matter which men are in control. Men know that they will be killed or enslaved by invading men. For men, it is literally a matter of life and death to defend the border.
37   AmericanKulak   2023 Mar 23, 5:30pm  

Patrick says

Example: women have no inclination to defend borders because they know they will be taken care of, or at least not killed, no matter which men are in control. Men know that they will be killed or enslaved by invading men. For men, it is literally a matter of life and death to defend the border.

Yes.

There's one caveat to this. Older women past their fertility know their sons and grandsons and husbands and brothers will be killed, which makes them more likely to want to stop invaders. They can't have THEIR offspring, with no chance of making more, exterminated.

Young women know they can start again with Bak Tok, even if their family and kids are killed, and have more. Also, Bak Tok is now proven a superior male for killing her husband defending the walls..
38   clambo   2023 Mar 24, 8:33am  

The marriage debate is almost comical; anyone who thinks clearly knows it almost always benefits the female and not the male.

I remember hearing about the social norms in the 1940s and 1950s.
Before contraception went beyond diaphrams and condoms and abortion was legal, there was huge social pressure to be married to get action.

Now it's all available everywhere.

Guys get more of certain attributes as they age which women like; I was recently told by a younger female that she liked my personality. Without listing the attributes, I am sure that some of them improved as I got older. Obviously if I were Brad Pitt she'd not worry about those, but on the other hand, my age isn't a detriment from her point of view because she was attracted more to my personality than the hair on my temples. This girl is not a broke loser, and she's not seeking cash from me.

Women get negative attributes as they age; they look worse of course, but they also sometimes are bitter and worried compared to the positive outlook of younger girls.
39   Tenpoundbass   2023 Mar 24, 1:31pm  

clambo says

The marriage debate is almost comical; anyone who thinks clearly knows it almost always benefits the female and not the male.


clambo says

Women get negative attributes as they age; they look worse of course, but they also sometimes are bitter and worried compared to the positive outlook of younger girls.


Younger girls don't have a positive outlook. An old dude chasing younger girls is the real sucker. There's a set up where the dude is just a patsy being played like a cheap kazoo.
Every young girl I knew growing up that had an Olderman that thought she was just crazy about him. Had a double life, when she left his house at 8 or 9 o'clock. She would go spend money and resources gleaned from Pops on her same age boyfriend. Sure there are exceptions to the rule but anyone that would bitch about being exploited by a wife in a marriage, then turn around and claim banging younger hot broads is less exploitative. Is a damn fool or blind.
I've never seen a hot younger girl court a broke dude over 50 that didn't have loads of money in the banks and had resources he was willing to spend on her every whim.
40   AmericanKulak   2023 Mar 24, 2:44pm  

Tenpoundbass says


Younger girls don't have a positive outlook. An old dude chasing younger girls is the real sucker. There's a set up where the dude is just a patsy being played like a cheap kazoo.


Taking a 22 year old to Ruby Tuesday for a burger and beer, buy her some chotskies, and bang her. Maybe she gives the hoodie you brought her in the mall to her skinny ass weedhead gamer boyfriend who is sitting at home watching anime.

OR

Taking a 42 year old to a nice Italian Restaurant, spend 4x more, listen to her talk about her boring ass work drama, her cats, the vineyard wine sampling she did last week with her girlfriends who then stayed at the AirBNB, her ex husband she left when the kids were grown, taking half the $350k home equity yet she blew through it all in a year with nothing to show for it but "experiences" from taking a cruise to the Bahamas with her alcoholic wine aunt girlfriends and all-new furniture in her rented apartment. How she's a catch because she makes $52k/year at Mid State Office Supply as Senior Accounts Payable Clerk. She tells you how she intends to spend the rest of her life on stupid ass "Travelling" every last dollar of her income with nothing saved.

Then she gets heartburn and she's already getting into menopause and doesn't want to fuck, please drop her home or pay for her Uber.

It's really not hard for any guy to take out 20-30 year old chicks these days and get some pussy; whereas 35+ chicks keep adding to lists of what they "Demand" and they "Know their worth". And they aren't DTF unless they've got baby rabies and are working on entrapment.

The big myths:
Postmenopausal women like to fuck (they don't, although a few do get a boost in sex drive, that's because they exhibit less estrogen and more testosterone but that also makes them have more hair all over and develop masculine facial features)

Older women "know what they like" - and it's you spending money on them for nothing in return. No more "I don't know" as to what restaurant, but whatever restaurant it is, is going to be EXPENSIVE. No dinner, No little sea side redneck bar

Older women are "easier to get along with and more comfortable in their own skin" - the first is a line, and the second is "more comfortable talking about their IBS symptoms, and being less anxious about their celluloid ridden, wrinkly old eye bags with extra hair all over her body".
41   AmericanKulak   2023 Mar 24, 2:59pm  

clambo says


Women get negative attributes as they age; they look worse of course, but they also sometimes are bitter and worried compared to the positive outlook of younger girls.

Yep.

Again, this 50 year old Finance chick starts off reasonable, tells everybody that "100" men she worked with explained they date younger because the women are easier to get along with not so much for beauty, then she demonstrates exactly why older men don't want her, proving that she like most of her peers has more baggage than Delta Airlines Lost and Found
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2dmCPkfh3Y

It's natural, normal, legal, and ethical for proven accomplished men in middle age to get with fertile young women. It's repeated many, many times in the Bible. It was the norm until very recently, like this century. Half the married characters in Victorian novels is a 40-year old Man back from the Empire or Overseas marrying a 20-year old - hell, Watson from Sherlock Holmes, who was a stock character to play the Everyman interacting with Holmes.

The 1950s era trads point to is already two waves into Feminism. Real Trad is pre first wave, like before 1890, for thousands upon thousands of years.
42   clambo   2023 Mar 24, 3:04pm  

Who's chasing girls?
A "broke dude over 50"=a loser, no girls want him.

What I see is that the girls in mid 40's are more clingy because they know they've got fewer opportunities left to them.

The younger one whom I may meet randomly (it's not typical; like lightning or a tornado) seem not to care about the future so much as having fun now.

Either way, I'm not worried; it's a liberating feeling when you actually don't care what happens in situations; lately I feel upset about current events but not about my relationships.
43   AmericanKulak   2023 Mar 24, 3:13pm  

Tenpoundbass says


Nor all husband's and men where abusive cads, there no shortage of fish monger wives,with a constant sour scorn. the true partnerships didn't make compelling stories. That's why we only think of the extremes.

That's the thing.

A young guy coming home and seeing the lace doillies and $20 missing from his drawer would give his wife a spanking and HER parents would approve, and the neighbors would titter at her when they heard the gossip. "That's Betty for you. Let me tell you, young buck, you got your work cut out for ya, she's always had more Moxie than is good for a lady. We tried to raise her right and didn't spare the rod, but thank goodness she's not my problem anymore." - your father in law, 1949

Calling up the bank and telling them to not give any money to the wife and administering a spank on the buns was NOT considered cad behavior. Today, the first is impossible and the second would get you in the slammer and you'd be all but unemployable with that DV conviction for 5 slaps on her rump over your knee.

Cad behavior was being marginally employed with a drinking problem and beating your wife for a nothing. Not laying down the law as breadwinner.
44   HeadSet   2023 Mar 24, 4:26pm  

AmericanKulak says

The big myths:
Postmenopausal women like to fuck (they don't)

Correct. For many it is painful. And they do not compensate by giving BJs.
45   AD   2023 Mar 24, 10:11pm  

AmericanKulak says

The collapse of Blackrock/investor owned SFHs,


another stock i'm tracking as far as housing market is Invitation Homes Inc

it is down 33% and is a company that buys homes and then rents them

also i track the home builder etf (ticker: ITB) which is down 19% only
.
46   AmericanKulak   2023 Mar 24, 10:26pm  

ad says

AmericanKulak says


The collapse of Blackrock/investor owned SFHs,


another stock i'm tracking as far as housing market is Invitation Homes Inc

it is down 33% and is a company that buys homes and then rents them

also i track the home builder etf (ticker: ITB) which is down 19% only
.


Yeah, it's pretty crazy.

I'm stunned the DR Horton stock price has recovered so well.



They built a ton of housing in Central and Central East Coast Florida, and they are sitting on a ton of unsold houses and half empty lot developments.
47   AD   2023 Mar 25, 12:15am  

AmericanKulak says


They built a ton of housing in Central and Central East Coast Florida, and they are sitting on a ton of unsold houses and half empty lot developments.


Good point, this excessive inventory will get absorbed as Florida is one of the fastest growing states. I suspect the 30 year mortgage rate will eventually settle between 5 and 5.5% within the next 6 to 9 months. 2023 is going to be a slow year.

I think the Establishment including Fed are wanting the Fed Funds rate to be decreased in 2024 to help Biden (or the Democrat nominee) in the Presidential election cycle.

It is being managed (or choreographed / orchestrated) that a recession will be declared in 2023 and a recovery will be announced by late summer 2024.

.
48   clambo   2023 Mar 25, 8:24am  

I too think interest rates will be decreased in time for the 2014 election.
I guess I have to just postpone my delusions of financial grandeur for a while longer.
49   Tenpoundbass   2023 Mar 25, 10:15am  

BTW I wasn't calling anyone out in my posts, I was just over generalizing and painting with a broad stroke. Like I think most posts in this thread were also doing.
50   clambo   2023 Mar 25, 11:20am  

"It's siesta time."

51   AmericanKulak   2023 Mar 25, 11:20am  

ad says

Good point, this excessive inventory will get absorbed as Florida is one of the fastest growing states. I suspect the 30 year mortgage rate will eventually settle between 5 and 5.5% within the next 6 to 9 months. 2023 is going to be a slow year.

I think the Establishment including Fed are wanting the Fed Funds rate to be decreased in 2024 to help Biden (or the Democrat nominee) in the Presidential election cycle.

It is being managed (or choreographed / orchestrated) that a recession will be declared in 2023 and a recovery will be announced by late summer 2024.


Agreed on all counts.

One thing that makes me smile is that used house sellers are trying to get $350 for a 1979 3 bed/2 bath/carport with maybe 1400 sq ft. Meanwhile the home builders have 4 bed/2.5 baths, brand spanking new, 2 car garage going for $370 they're trying to dump.
52   AD   2023 Mar 25, 12:18pm  

.

Housing starts are below 1993 levels and clearly below 2007 levels :-/

It could be a 15 to 20 year cycle (from 2010 to 2025) whereas housing bottoms by 2025.

Look at how housing starts bottomed around 1990 and peaked at 2016.

.



.
53   SunnyvaleCA   2023 Mar 25, 1:44pm  

Back to the original topic of this thread...
AmericanKulak says


My advice to California crap shack bagholders is to sell today.

In my prime crap-shack location, I've noticed quite a few impressive major renovation/restoration/improvement/teardown projects by flippers or new owners. If you're buying a $200k crap-shack with a $2MM location, you can probably afford an extra $200k to $600k in fixing it up. The new construction in developments within 10 miles of me typically have more floorspace, but won't give you walking distance to the Apple Spaceship, a quiet neighborhood, a yard, two car garage, and (increasingly) single-family dwelling. I'll take a bit less floorspace over "semi-detached" new construction with $500/month association fee and single "carport"! There's all sorts of lousy government stuff associated with renovation that jacks up the price and delays the completion, but those two problems afflict new construction too. It seems that a two car garage is becoming important, now that vehicle break-ins, vandalism, and catalytic converter thefts are on the upswing.
54   AmericanKulak   2023 Mar 25, 3:24pm  

Is lack of housing starts a myth?

Family formation at lows and shows NO signs of changing.


There is a downward trajectory of population growth, household formation as well, that’s really going to undermine the need for what’s built,” said McGill. “On the other side of that, you have the development community that’s actually very optimistic about there being a housing shortage and actually very optimistic about how much needs to be built, and they’re actually pressing the accelerator harder than we think they probably should be.”

McGill cited data from the latest Decennial Census from the U.S. Census showing household formation is about 24% below where it was in the prior four decades.

McGill’s partner Ivy Zelman, who is perhaps best known for one of the first warnings about the subprime mortgage crisis over a decade ago, agreed.

“The market is too hot. There is just a massive amount of capital that’s coming to the space,” Zelman said, referring to the investor interest in the housing market. “We actually believe the industry is already overbuilding in single-family to normalized demand by roughly 20% and about 10% for multi-family, so we couldn’t be on more of an opposite side of where the market is and where the industry is, frankly.”

Homebuilders, however, seem to disagree.


Note date of article:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/12/-tight-housing-market-is-already-overbuilt-one-analyst-says.html

While it's true that you got 7 Mexi/Chindians living in a 3-4 bedroom, does a single childless Millie = who will be 40% of population in 2030 and several are already past the point where only an IVF miracle will give their 40 year old ass a baby - need a 2000 sq ft zero lot 5-bedroom to xirself? There are far, far more White Native born childless than immigrant families

We've already seen urban townhomes - once built for large families of the pre 1960s - turned into 2, 3, or 4 apartments.

Also, 2nd and 3rd Gen Mexicans, ABCs, and ABIs are already almost identical to White Millies in the low childbirth department
55   NoYes   2023 Mar 25, 3:40pm  

Who will we draft to fight the coming wars?
56   AmericanKulak   2023 Mar 25, 3:42pm  

NoYes says

Who will we draft to fight the coming wars?

The Trannies
57   AmericanKulak   2023 Mar 25, 5:07pm  

cisTits says


AmericanKulak says


The Trannies


Foreigners. Roman's did it. French do it now.


I heard there's a US Military Recruiting Center in Mexico City.

EDIT: I checked this and isn't true, unless there is one in the US Embassy for Dual Citizens/Green Card Holders
59   HeadSet   2023 Mar 27, 1:18pm  

AmericanKulak says

cisTits says



AmericanKulak says



The Trannies


Foreigners. Roman's did it. French do it now.



I heard there's a US Military Recruiting Center in Mexico City.

EDIT: I checked this and isn't true, unless there is one in the US Embassy for Dual Citizens/Green Card Holders

However, one does not have to be a US citizen to enlist. I remember meeting a few non-citizen enlisted men when I was in the AF.
60   GNL   2023 Mar 27, 1:45pm  

HeadSet says

However, one does not have to be a US citizen to enlist. I remember meeting a few non-citizen enlisted men when I was in the AF.

Got a link? Sorry but this sounds insane.
61   1337irr   2023 Mar 27, 1:46pm  

GNL says

HeadSet says


However, one does not have to be a US citizen to enlist. I remember meeting a few non-citizen enlisted men when I was in the AF.

Got a link? Sorry but this sounds insane.

This is true...I met a guy from Nicaragua who was in the Army.
62   GNL   2023 Mar 27, 2:55pm  

1337irr says

GNL says


HeadSet says



However, one does not have to be a US citizen to enlist. I remember meeting a few non-citizen enlisted men when I was in the AF.

Got a link? Sorry but this sounds insane.


This is true...I met a guy from Nicaragua who was in the Army.

Ok but, it would be a lot more believable if there were a link to some official government website that says a non citizen can join the armed forces.
63   GNL   2023 Mar 27, 2:59pm  

Ok, here is the answer. Amazing.



A resident alien is a foreign-born United States resident who is not an American citizen. A resident alien is also known as a permanent resident or a lawful permanent resident, which means they are considered an immigrant who has been legally and lawfully recorded as a resident of the country. A resident alien must have a green card or pass a substantial presence test.
64   PeopleUnited   2023 Mar 27, 7:59pm  

I guess I thought this was more widely known. Many Americans, especially from Mexico and Latin America became full citizens AFTER joining the military.
65   RWSGFY   2023 Mar 27, 9:11pm  

GNL says

Ok, here is the answer. Amazing.



A resident alien is a foreign-born United States resident who is not an American citizen. A resident alien is also known as a permanent resident or a lawful permanent resident, which means they are considered an immigrant who has been legally and lawfully recorded as a resident of the country. A resident alien must have a green card or pass a substantial presence test.


Green card holders are also required to register with the Selective Service and can be conscripted when either general or special-skills draft is declared.
66   RWSGFY   2023 Mar 27, 9:12pm  

NoYes says

Who will we draft to fight the coming wars?


You!
67   AD   2023 Mar 27, 9:50pm  

PeopleUnited says

I guess I thought this was more widely known. Many Americans, especially from Mexico and Latin America became full citizens AFTER joining the military.


I recall learning that typically about 10% of US Navy and also 10% of the Coast Guard were alien residents and not citizens.

.
68   zzyzzx   2023 Apr 12, 7:40am  

https://www.reddit.com/r/houston/comments/12j9ikx/houston_apartment_owner_loses_3200_units_to/

Houston Apartment Owner Loses 3,200 Units to Foreclosure as Multifamily Feels the Heat
69   RayAmerica   2023 Apr 20, 10:26am  

US Existing Home Sales Resume Slide In March; Home Prices Drop Most In A Decade

After February's massive surge in existing home sales, expectations were for a modest pullback in March. The 14.,5% jump in Feb was revised down to 13.8% surge (still huge), but March printed a 2.4% MoM decline (worse than the expected 1.8% drop).

That is the 13th monthly decline in the last 14 months and leaves existing home sales down around 22% YoY with the SAAR dropping back to 4.44mm...
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-existing-home-sales-resume-slide-march-home-prices-drop-most-decade
70   AmericanKulak   2023 Apr 20, 11:46am  

Prices are falling here steadily. Every time I look I'm seeing 5% price cuts.

Mainland brand new, never occupied housing from DR Horton with 2000 sq ft all poured concrete, all new everything, competing with 60s-80s era bland tract homes that haven't been updated since Kid N' Play were in the charts, complete with Rose Pink Bathrooms with Billard Green Living Rooms and Seashell decor, tiny sliding door closets, minimal storage, carports rather than garages. Some of the latter don't have central air, and the extensions to the original home are already falling apart under the sun and humidty.

Both are going in the late 300k's.

It's a no brainer for a new homebuyer, since the old homes are looking at another $40-60k minimum to bring them up to snuff.

People honestly believe their apartments that sold in 2016 for $180-$240k with 3.5% rates are worth $400k at 7% interest rates. When you can rent the apartment for 30% cheaper/month than the Mortgage+HOA+tax... why buy?
71   AD   2023 Apr 20, 12:23pm  

Income can accelerate while housing prices at least hold steady over the next 5 to 10 years so that home price to income ratio returns to around 5.

When we secured our VA mortgage from a local bank at a 3% rate in late summer 2016, they stated that historically the ratio range is 4 to 5.

.



.
72   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2023 Apr 20, 12:30pm  

Home prices have dropped 17-24% from their June 2022 peak in these markets:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WFSSES4OKo

« First        Comments 33 - 72 of 82       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions