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I'm excited for housing


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2023 Mar 21, 4:54pm   8,735 views  82 comments

by AmericanKulak   ➕follow (9)   💰tip   ignore  

1957 - the peak birth year in all US history, with no equivalent year for working generations on the horizon.

All those boomers whose median age is 66 in the next decade getting COPD, CHF, and broken hips unable to keep up and mow their .25-.5 acre, 3-4 bed/1.5-2.5 bed home.

All those boomers still married about to experience the Grey Divorce wave and having to sell to split equity, then having to survive on one half retirement.

Interest rates probably staying reasonably historically normal (7% is not high, it's about the 50-year average since 1970) for the next couple of years at least.

A White Collar Female recession, busting down the #1 spenders of consumer goods as companies slash HR, PR, Marketing, DIE, etc. to maintain or restore profitability.

Severe shortage of skilled trades like Welding, Plumbing, Practical Nursing causing a boom for the Technical School-but-not-College educated.

The collapse of Blackrock/investor owned SFHs, Triplexes, small Apt complexes due to banks tranching out loans and increased maintenance and property tax costs, plus institutions pulling from current holdings to pay out retirees. No more awash with cash from Middle Aged/Nearing Retirement Age workers piling money INTO 401ks and TIAA-CREF.

It's a great time to be a Working Age Male. Save your cash and get ready to build some serious wealth.

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59   HeadSet   2023 Mar 27, 1:18pm  

AmericanKulak says

cisTits says



AmericanKulak says



The Trannies


Foreigners. Roman's did it. French do it now.



I heard there's a US Military Recruiting Center in Mexico City.

EDIT: I checked this and isn't true, unless there is one in the US Embassy for Dual Citizens/Green Card Holders

However, one does not have to be a US citizen to enlist. I remember meeting a few non-citizen enlisted men when I was in the AF.
60   GNL   2023 Mar 27, 1:45pm  

HeadSet says

However, one does not have to be a US citizen to enlist. I remember meeting a few non-citizen enlisted men when I was in the AF.

Got a link? Sorry but this sounds insane.
61   1337irr   2023 Mar 27, 1:46pm  

GNL says

HeadSet says


However, one does not have to be a US citizen to enlist. I remember meeting a few non-citizen enlisted men when I was in the AF.

Got a link? Sorry but this sounds insane.

This is true...I met a guy from Nicaragua who was in the Army.
62   GNL   2023 Mar 27, 2:55pm  

1337irr says

GNL says


HeadSet says



However, one does not have to be a US citizen to enlist. I remember meeting a few non-citizen enlisted men when I was in the AF.

Got a link? Sorry but this sounds insane.


This is true...I met a guy from Nicaragua who was in the Army.

Ok but, it would be a lot more believable if there were a link to some official government website that says a non citizen can join the armed forces.
63   GNL   2023 Mar 27, 2:59pm  

Ok, here is the answer. Amazing.



A resident alien is a foreign-born United States resident who is not an American citizen. A resident alien is also known as a permanent resident or a lawful permanent resident, which means they are considered an immigrant who has been legally and lawfully recorded as a resident of the country. A resident alien must have a green card or pass a substantial presence test.
64   PeopleUnited   2023 Mar 27, 7:59pm  

I guess I thought this was more widely known. Many Americans, especially from Mexico and Latin America became full citizens AFTER joining the military.
65   RWSGFY   2023 Mar 27, 9:11pm  

GNL says

Ok, here is the answer. Amazing.



A resident alien is a foreign-born United States resident who is not an American citizen. A resident alien is also known as a permanent resident or a lawful permanent resident, which means they are considered an immigrant who has been legally and lawfully recorded as a resident of the country. A resident alien must have a green card or pass a substantial presence test.


Green card holders are also required to register with the Selective Service and can be conscripted when either general or special-skills draft is declared.
66   RWSGFY   2023 Mar 27, 9:12pm  

NoYes says

Who will we draft to fight the coming wars?


You!
67   AD   2023 Mar 27, 9:50pm  

PeopleUnited says

I guess I thought this was more widely known. Many Americans, especially from Mexico and Latin America became full citizens AFTER joining the military.


I recall learning that typically about 10% of US Navy and also 10% of the Coast Guard were alien residents and not citizens.

.
68   zzyzzx   2023 Apr 12, 7:40am  

https://www.reddit.com/r/houston/comments/12j9ikx/houston_apartment_owner_loses_3200_units_to/

Houston Apartment Owner Loses 3,200 Units to Foreclosure as Multifamily Feels the Heat
69   RayAmerica   2023 Apr 20, 10:26am  

US Existing Home Sales Resume Slide In March; Home Prices Drop Most In A Decade

After February's massive surge in existing home sales, expectations were for a modest pullback in March. The 14.,5% jump in Feb was revised down to 13.8% surge (still huge), but March printed a 2.4% MoM decline (worse than the expected 1.8% drop).

That is the 13th monthly decline in the last 14 months and leaves existing home sales down around 22% YoY with the SAAR dropping back to 4.44mm...
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-existing-home-sales-resume-slide-march-home-prices-drop-most-decade
70   AmericanKulak   2023 Apr 20, 11:46am  

Prices are falling here steadily. Every time I look I'm seeing 5% price cuts.

Mainland brand new, never occupied housing from DR Horton with 2000 sq ft all poured concrete, all new everything, competing with 60s-80s era bland tract homes that haven't been updated since Kid N' Play were in the charts, complete with Rose Pink Bathrooms with Billard Green Living Rooms and Seashell decor, tiny sliding door closets, minimal storage, carports rather than garages. Some of the latter don't have central air, and the extensions to the original home are already falling apart under the sun and humidty.

Both are going in the late 300k's.

It's a no brainer for a new homebuyer, since the old homes are looking at another $40-60k minimum to bring them up to snuff.

People honestly believe their apartments that sold in 2016 for $180-$240k with 3.5% rates are worth $400k at 7% interest rates. When you can rent the apartment for 30% cheaper/month than the Mortgage+HOA+tax... why buy?
71   AD   2023 Apr 20, 12:23pm  

Income can accelerate while housing prices at least hold steady over the next 5 to 10 years so that home price to income ratio returns to around 5.

When we secured our VA mortgage from a local bank at a 3% rate in late summer 2016, they stated that historically the ratio range is 4 to 5.

.



.
72   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2023 Apr 20, 12:30pm  

Home prices have dropped 17-24% from their June 2022 peak in these markets:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WFSSES4OKo
73   AD   2023 Apr 20, 12:37pm  

Al_Sharpton_for_President says


Home prices have dropped 17-24% from their June 2022 peak in these markets:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WFSSES4OKo


yep among them Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, and St George Utah ....
74   GNL   2023 Apr 20, 2:09pm  

AmericanKulak says


Mainland brand new, never occupied housing from DR Horton with 2000 sq ft all poured concrete, all new everything, competing with 60s-80s era bland tract homes that haven't been updated since Kid N' Play were in the charts, complete with Rose Pink Bathrooms with Billard Green Living Rooms and Seashell decor, tiny sliding door closets, minimal storage, carports rather than garages. Some of the latter don't have central air, and the extensions to the original home are already falling apart under the sun and humidty.

Both are going in the late 300k's

I'll bet the existing stock has bigger lots. If your area is growing and things turn around, I'd become a rehabber.
75   Patrick   2023 Apr 20, 2:23pm  

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/04/20/housing-market-takes-another-step-back-home-prices-drop-year-over-year-for-second-month-already-dismal-sales-fell-again/


The median price of all types of previously owned homes – houses, condo, co-ops – whose sales closed in March, fell year-over-year by 0.9% to $375,700, according to the National Association of Realtors. This was the second year-over-year decline in a row since February 2012, when the market emerged from Housing Bust 1
76   AD   2023 Apr 20, 4:12pm  

"The cost of homes in the United States has outpaced wage growth over the past decade. According to the Federal Finance Housing Agency, home prices rose 74% from 2010 to 2022. The average wage rose only 54% during the same time."

https://usafacts.org/data-projects/housing-vs-wages
77   GNL   2023 Apr 20, 4:28pm  

ad says

"The cost of homes in the United States has outpaced wage growth over the past decade. According to the Federal Finance Housing Agency, home prices rose 74% from 2010 to 2022. The average wage rose only 54% during the same time."

https://usafacts.org/data-projects/housing-vs-wages

That doesn't sound bad at all considering where rates have been, no?
78   Misc   2023 Apr 20, 5:40pm  

The FFHA is also cherry picking the dates having the start date be at the bottom of the housing bubble bust.
79   AmericanKulak   2023 Apr 20, 9:33pm  

ad says

When we secured our VA mortgage from a local bank at a 3% rate in late summer 2016, they stated that historically the ratio range is 4 to 5.

Great chart, thanks.
80   ForcedTQ   2023 Apr 20, 10:02pm  

ad says

Income can accelerate while housing prices at least hold steady over the next 5 to 10 years so that home price to income ratio returns to around 5.

When we secured our VA mortgage from a local bank at a 3% rate in late summer 2016, they stated that historically the ratio range is 4 to 5.

.



.


The insane part about all of that is people are ok with being house poor. The whole thought process of accepting that one’s house should cost 5-7 times one’s income is a marketing tactic. It takes people with discipline, saying fuck no that’s too much, for the market price to move. The unfortunate reality is that most people just look at the monthly payment and say, I guess I will be able to swing it, every body else is…
81   WookieMan   2023 Apr 21, 4:15am  

I'm negative in the income to home price calculation. Make more annually than my home is worth barely. I'd go up to 3x's but I'd puke doing it. 4-5x's get fucked. I'm not buying a $1.5M house. That's why we tapped the brakes on the house build. Get more bids and just let it soak in. And honestly see what interest rates do.

Need the space, but I'm not going to be one of those house poor idiots. But I also am not spending the time building and not getting what I want and have it be builder grade shit like I see in most newer built house. I could sneeze and the drywall cracks and the cheap floors start buckling.
82   HeadSet   2023 Apr 21, 7:56am  

ForcedTQ says

The unfortunate reality is that most people just look at the monthly payment and say, I guess I will be able to swing it, every body else is…

Yep, a phenomenon of the weak that will only get worse when government backed 40 year and up mortgages come out.

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